HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS

Jun 29 2015

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2015 Hurricane Season UpdateTimothy Garner, NOAA Acting Chief Spaceflight Meteorology Group

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2015 Hurricane Season in a Nutshell• Lower than average number of storms forecast.

• Around 8 named storms (70% chance of between 6 to 11)• Already two: TS Ana and TS Bill

• Historical analogs and modelled seasonal conditions favor develop in a belt from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic north of the usual Main Development Region

• TS Ana and TS Bill fit this pattern• This pattern could allow activity near the higher range of the NOAA predicted

number of storms.

• Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too?

• Statistical correlation is insignificant. Overall early season activity, high or low, has little bearing on the season as a whole.

• BUT, for June/July storms south of 22N and east of 77W there is a strong association with activity for the rest of the year. This year no named storms in that area may mean below normal season.

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Factors for 2015 Season

El Nino occurring and forecast to strengthen and last through winter 2015-2016 -- El Nino suppresses hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (La Nina favors hurricanes)

-- Primary factor in this season’s outlook

Near to slightly below average Sea Surface Temperatures in tropical Atlantic

-- 2015 observed June SST pattern in the Atlantic is the opposite of that observed in highly active years.

The “Multi-Decadal Signal” not a factor -- Long term cycle of warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures

favorable for hurricanes in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) since 1995 may have ended.

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Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2015

Forecast Group Number of Named Storms

Number of Hurricanes

Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)

Long-Term Average (1981-2010)

12 6.5 2

NOAA (May 27 issue)*included TS Ana

6 – 1170% chc < normal

20% chc near normal10% chc > normal

3 – 6 0 - 2

Colorado State (June Issue)(April issue)

8* (4.3-11.7)

7*included Ana

3 (0.9 – 5.1) 1 (0-2.6)

UKMET OfficeWSI Penn StateNC StateCoastal Carolina UniversityCuban Met. ServiceTropical Storm Risk (TSR), Inc.

998 589

10** **(2 TS 1H landfall)

N/A5

N/A2434

N/A1

N/A12

N/A1

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JSC ImpactsTropical Storm Bill

• 3 day rainfall totals:• B30: 3.38”• B421: 3.82”• EFD: 2.98”

• Max wind gust:• B30: 43 mph• EFD: 30 mph• JSC average winds < TS force

• 8+ JENS messages issued by SMG about Bill

• Highlighted minor to moderate flooding threat from 4.5” to 6” rain on average with possibility of isolated locations nearby receiving 6 to 10”

• Wind gusts to tropical storm strength• No or neglible storm threat to JSC• Additional e-mail updates sent to JSC

emergency managers and ISS FD’s

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Tropical Storm Bill Path (Wikipedia)

NOAA/NWS and Houston Chronicle

10-13”

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NamedStorms

HurricanesMajor

Hurricanes( Cat 3 +)

Actual 8 4 2NOAA / NWS 8-13 3-6 1-2

Colorado State10 4 1

Weather Underground

7-9 1-3 0-2

NormalSeason

12 6 3

2014 Hurricane OutlooksVerification

Hurricane Overview

Alan Mather, Chief of Protective Services

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Hurricane Preparedness Levels

Level 5 – AWARENESS (Jun-1 through Nov 30)

Level 4 – CONCERN (impact to JSC in ~72 hrs)

Level 3 – PREPARATION (impact in ~48 hrs) Level 2 – CLOSURE (impact to JSC in ~36

hrs) Level 1 – RIDEOUT Assessment Recovery

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Decisions and RisksWhy Levels 4, 3, 2, 1 don’t always work…

Concern to Prep…. Weekend? Late in the day? Holidays? What are schools doing? Speed, size of storm? Certainty of track?

Prep to Closure Employees mentally shutting

down Different personal timeframes Mandatory evacuation zones

Riding it Out Systematic shut down (~ 6 hrs to

shutdown plant) vs Hard shut down (boiler recovery)

Electrical grid shut down How many stay onsite to ride-out?

Entire first wave recovery team 5 man team (recovery team to Merrill

Center) Team to run utilities if we leave power

up No one (small team to Webster)

When does the team leave?

Recovery Site Utilities and services Safety Community services (hospitals, gas etc.)

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Senior Staff Communications

Senior Staff/Away team Telecom Telecom number and passcode GETS card

jscsos.com >Senior Staff Info page Login and password

ENS Center Closure Notice via text and email HR check-in survey Recall of employees

ENS+ VPN access (RSA Token and NDC Password)

Recovery TELL EMPLOYEES NOT TO RETURN UNTIL RECALLED

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www.jscsos.com

Username is your email address.You will be provided a password

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AH-Bill Kerneckel

Senior StaffJune 29, 2015

ENS PlusJSC’s HR Employee Accountability Tool

Why ENS Plus?

ENS Plus is a JSC HR employee accountability tool for Senior Level Management and Supervisors to keep status on their employees after an ENS Survey notification has been sent out.

ENS Plus features Rolls up employee survey data into an organization view

for supervisors and management. [# safe, # not ok, # of unknown, etc.]

Google Map display of employee’s residential address Can report out on simultaneous emergency events Can report on contractor and civil servant survey data Tool will work with any mobile device while on the NASA

network. (iPad, iPhone, Android, etc.)

• Who Can Access ENS Plus? Civil Servant Supervisors Emergency Operations

HR Contractor POCs

URL - https://ensplus.jsc.nasa.govNew

For questions on JSC ENS Plus please contact:

• sharon.evans-1@nasa.gov• bill.kerneckel@nasa.gov