July Jobs Report with Department of the Treasury and Business Forward
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Transcript of July Jobs Report with Department of the Treasury and Business Forward
The Labor Market Situation in July
Office of Economic PolicyAugust 4, 2014
Dr. Jennifer HuntDeputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic
Analysis
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Private sector employment up 198,000Total nonfarm up 209,000, sixth consecutive month over 200,000
1-month change, in thousands• July 2014
198• June 2014
270• May 2014
22812-month change, in thousands
• July 2013 to 2014:
2,479• Average:
207
33Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy3
Sustained growth in 3 month moving average
This has been the highest job growth in the first half of a year since 1999.
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Employment growth by super-sector this month
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2% 1
2
3
7
7
8
8
11
17
21
22
27
28
47
-5.0 5.0 15.0 25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0
Utilities
Information
Wholesale Trade
Other Services
Financial Activities
Transportation and Warehousing
Mining and Logging*
Government
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction*
Retail Trade*
Manufacturing*
Professional and Business Services*
Over-the-month employment change, July 2013, seasonally adjusted, in thousands
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, bls.gov/ces*denotes significance
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Unemployment rate ticked up
July 2014 6.2%
June 2014 6.1%
May 2014 6.3%
July 2013 7.3%
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Long-term unemployment rate steady, remains double pre-recession average
July 2014: 2.0%
June 2014: 2.0%
May 2014: 2.2%
July 2013: 2.7%
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Employment rate was flat
July 2014: 59.0%
June 2014: 59.0%
May 2014: 58.9%
July 2013: 58.7%
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LFPR ticked up
July 2014: 62.9%
June 2014: 62.8%
May 2014: 62.8%
July 2013: 63.4%
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Ratio of broad to standard unemployment highest ever
Over-the-monthOver-the-yearchange
change• U1 — 0.0
↓1.0pp • U2 — 0.0
↓0.7pp • U3 ↑ 0.1
↓1.1pp • U4 ↑ 0.1
↓1.3pp • U5 ↑ 0.2
↓1.1pp • U6 ↑ 0.1
↓1.7pp
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Other
Last month, all employment growth appeared to be part-time
This month, even growth
No changes in earnings
No change in hours
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Actual and predicted LFPR
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Evolving LFPR
U.S. LFPR generally rose from the early 1960s through 2000– The increase was largely due to increasing participation by women
LFPR then fell quickly– Part of the reduction was due to the Great Recession– Part reflected predictable aging of the population– Part is unexplained
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Decomposition of change in LFPR
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The role of population aging
Older workers have been participating at higher and higher rates since the 1990s– In terms of overall LFPR, this increase is not enough to counteract
the increase in older worker share– Older workers still participate at a substantially lower rate than
younger workers
Aging has contributed to about half the observed LFPR reduction since 2007
Predicted LFPR ranges from about 60 to 62 pp in 2024
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LFPR of 55+ year olds
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Alternative scenarios for the participation rate
Thank you!
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Yet again, more jobseekers gave up looking than found work.
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Long-term unemployed are increasingly more likely to leave the labor force than find employment