Julian R - Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation Mar 2013
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Transcript of Julian R - Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation Mar 2013
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Julian Ramirez-VillegasAndy Jarvis, Beatriz Herrera and Carlos Navarro
Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation?
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Why cassava?: a main staple in Africa
• Contributed ~84 kcal/capita/day in 2007 (globally)• In Africa, however, it was 154 kcal/capita/day (387
wheat, 359 for maize, 205 rice)• Africa: ~124.3 million Ton produced in 2010 (52% of
total)
FAOSTAT (2012)
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Crop hardiness: reported physiological responses
• Adapted to warm and moist areas, but can deal with dryness
Pn (
umol
CO
2 pe
r m
2/s)
El-Sharkawy (2006) El-Sharkawy and Cock (1986)
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Some limiting factors
• Pests and diseases
• Low input farming systems, thus large yield gaps
Licker et al. (2010)
Herrera et al. (2011)
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Potential for climate change adaptation
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“In 2002, cassava was considered an ‘orphan crop’, neglected by both investors and practitioners of agricultural research”
Fauquet et al. (2012)
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Potential for climate change adaptation
• No systematic approach to quantify the potential of cassava
• Lobell et al. (2008) report increases of +1.1 % (average)
• Liu et al. (2008) report little impacts on cassava yield (-2 to 1 %)
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Approach
• Use a simple suitability model to quantify the response of the crop by 2030s (SRES-A1B)
• Uncertainty in projected climate quantified through the use of multiple (24) GCMs
• Compare with other staples in the region (maize, beans, sorghum, banana, millet, potato)
• Benefits of further crop improvement• Assess the impacts on pests and diseases
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The EcoCrop model
Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2013 Agr. For. Met. 170: 67-78
…uses parameterised thresholds to determine climatic suitability of a particular environment…
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Findings• Positive impacts or very little negative effects
Moderate to high uncertainty
Low signal
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Cassava vs. other staples
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Benefits of crop improvementBreeding drought /
waterloggingBreeding heat / cold
tolerance
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In addition to large CO2 stimulation
Rosenthal et al. (2012) report ~100 % increases in root yield under elevated CO2
Further evidence of the crop’s potential under climate change
Under optimal management
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But more work is needed on pests and diseases
Potentially less pressure
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In 2012, our article empowered CIAT to play a major role in the Global Cassava Partnership 21st Century, now receiving funds from the Gates Foundation.
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Conclusions• Cassava consistently outperforming
other staples in SSA under climate change• Stress-tolerant cassava for managing
risk• And also for transformational
adaptation (transition systems)• Crop improvement to further increase
biotic stress resistance
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