JTWC Satellite OperationsJTWC Satellite Operations(SATOPS)(SATOPS)

Capt Kathryn Payne Capt Kathryn Payne 27 April 2009 27 April 2009

15W SINLAKU

ATCF

Overview

• SATOPS overview

• Satellite fix statistics 2008

• METSAT Conference Conclusions– Microwave Constellation– Quikscat– Improvements to Intensity Estimates

SATOPS MissionSATOPS Mission

• JTWC now has the sole Tropical Cyclone (TC) JTWC now has the sole Tropical Cyclone (TC) Reconnaissance Mission in USPACOMReconnaissance Mission in USPACOM

• Support JTWC TC Forecast OperationsSupport JTWC TC Forecast Operations– METWATCH AOR for disturbancesMETWATCH AOR for disturbances– Evaluate disturbances for TC genesisEvaluate disturbances for TC genesis– Assess TC position/intensityAssess TC position/intensity– Synergistic relationship with Typhoon Duty Officers Synergistic relationship with Typhoon Duty Officers

(TDOs)(TDOs)– Post-storm F-deck QCPost-storm F-deck QC– Transition research to operations through Transition research to operations through

collaborationcollaboration

Organizational StructureNMFC CO

Director, JTWC

JTOPS SATOPS Flight CC

Tech Advisor (civ)

A-section TDO

B-section TDO

A-section Analyst SATOPS NCOIC

B-section Analyst Assistant NCOIC

Tech Dev Chief

C-section Analyst Analyst U/I

D-section Analyst

C-section TDO

D-section TDO

Developer (civ)

SATOPS: 1 AF Capt + 5 AF Enlisted + 2 AF civilians = 8 total

SATOPS ToolsSATOPS Tools

• USAF / MARK IVB USAF / MARK IVB Satellite SystemSatellite System

• USN / FMQ-17 Satellite USN / FMQ-17 Satellite SystemSystem

• Automated Tropical Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast System Cyclone Forecast System (ATCF)(ATCF)– Geo-referencedGeo-referenced– From FNMOC/NRLFrom FNMOC/NRL

• FNMOC and NRL TC FNMOC and NRL TC Web PagesWeb Pages

Fixing ProcessFixing Process

JAAWIN

• Position Fix every 3 hours– VIS, IR, Multi-spectral

• Intensity Estimate every 6 hours– Dvorak Technique

• Code and Transmit Bulletin• Process Other Agencies’

Fixes• Radar/Dropsonde fixes• Microwave Fixes as available

– Now transmitted longline

PGTW

RJTD

KNES

PHFO

FMEE

NFFN

ABRF

ADRM

APRF

DEMS

NZKL

2008 Satellite Fixes2008 Satellite FixesBy AgencyBy Agency

73%

6%

16%

96 266 69 51 2912645

5

Total Satellite Fixes = 12,581

9199 744 1951

5%

2008 Geostationary 2008 Geostationary Fixes By Platform Fixes By Platform

(PGTW)(PGTW)

Total Geostationary Fixes = 4,070

MTSAT

MET7

GOES11

FY

2504 1462 77 27

62%

36%

2%

AMSU

SSMI

MMHS

AMSR

TRMM

SSMIS

WIND

2008 Microwave Fixes 2008 Microwave Fixes By Platform (PGTW)By Platform (PGTW)

Total Microwave Fixes = 5,111 Over half of PGTW fixes are now microwave

364 453

284

1716 869 644

781

34%

17%

13%7%

9%

15%5%

Exposed LLCC

Sheared Convection

Apparent LLCC

True LLCC

Slide courtesy of Jeff Hawkins, NRL

METSAT Conference Topics

• Future of Satellites Improvements to operational intensity estimates

• Participants– JTWC– NPOESS– NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch– Naval Research Lab (NRL)– Fleet Numerical (FNMOC)– University of Wisconsin, CIMSS– NOAA-Science and Technology– Remote Sensing Systems– Lockheed Martin (Mark IVB)– SeaSpace (FMQ-17/TeraScan)– NWS Guam

MidAMOrbit

Polar Satellite Programs

2009 2010 20212007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020

NPP

NPOESS C1

MetOp-B

MetOp-C

PMOrbit

NOAA 18

AMOrbit DMSP F19

DMSP F20

DMSP F18

NOAA 19

Extended operation Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DoD)

European Polar System (EUMETSAT)

NOAA Polar Satellite Program

NPOESS Preparatory Project (NASA/NOAA)

NPOESS(NOAA/DoD/NASA)

Calendar Year

2022 2023

NOAA 17

NPOESS C2

Satellite is beyond design life

DMSP F16

DMSP F17

MetOp-A

NPP

Previous Schedule (through November 2008)

MetOp-D

NPOESS C3

Slide courtesy of Maj Chris Dennison (NPOESS)

Future of Satellites-Conclusions

• JTWC needs assistance in quantifying satellite platforms’ impact to operations – Ex: reduction in forecast errors, $ saved, sorties

prevented

• JTWC needs a systematic way to advocate for satellite programs (ex. GCOM scatterometer/AMSRE)

• A temporal sampling requirement is needed for microwave imagery/sounders– Ex: imagery needed every 3 hours

• Request increased resolution for MIS (NPOESS) sensor

Quikscat• Essential to JTWC

operations– Synoptic Analysis– Initial warnings often based

on quikscat winds• Windsat/ASCAT- poorer

spatial resolution • First scheduled

replacement- Dual Frequency Scatterometer (DFS) 2016

• Potential to run second ASCAT 20 minutes after 1st

– ASCAT flies on MetOp series

Quikscat

Windsat

Ascat

Dvorak Technique

• Due to lack of aircraft recon, Dvorak primary tool for intensity estimates

• Known weaknesses in Dvorak present problems for TDO/analyst– Few updates to process in

30 years– Subjectivity– Rapid intensification– Weakening systems– Weak, developing systems– Midgets/pinhole eye

Improvements to Improvements to Intensity EstimatesIntensity Estimates

• Need correct baseline intensity to improve intensity forecasting

• Investigate use of CIMSS’ SATCON (Satellite Consensus) intensity estimate as a supplement to Dvorak– Weighted consensus of 3 automated satellite intensity

estimates• ADT (Advanced Dvorak Technique)• AMSU (CIMSS)• AMSU (CIRA)

– Collaborate to improve understanding of these intensity estimates

• Priority for improvements concern storms less that 35 kts and rapid intensifiers

Questions

SATOPS ContactsSATOPS Contacts

• OIC – Capt Kathryn PayneOIC – Capt Kathryn Payne Capt Stephen Chesser (Aug 09)Capt Stephen Chesser (Aug 09)

• NCOIC – TSgt Ken ViaultNCOIC – TSgt Ken Viault MSgt Mike Oates (TBD)MSgt Mike Oates (TBD)

• E-Mail: E-Mail: firstname.lastname@navy.milfirstname.lastname@navy.mil• Duty Satellite Analyst: Duty Satellite Analyst:

– Commercial: (808) 471-3533Commercial: (808) 471-3533– DSN: (315) 471-3533 DSN: (315) 471-3533

• SATOPS Office:SATOPS Office:– Commercial: (808) 474-3946Commercial: (808) 474-3946– DSN: (315) 474-3946DSN: (315) 474-3946