JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoringin EuropeJRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020 5 1.3...
Transcript of JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoringin EuropeJRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020 5 1.3...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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Warm and dry summer weather followed by abundant, but
sometimes excessive rainfall in the second half of the
analysis period, hampered field work in large parts of
Europe.
Warm and dry summer weather continued throughout the
first three weeks of September in most of Europe, which
led to a particularly distinct temperature accumulation
surplus in a wide belt from north to south in eastern
Europe, Turkey and eastern Mediterranean.
Abundant rainfall and a clear rain surplus were recorded
in the second half of the analysis-period in most parts of
central and western Europe and the central and eastern
Mediterranean region.
These wet conditions at the end of September and October
caused delays to the harvesting of summer crops as well
as to sowing activities in western and southwestern
France, the Benelux, southern Poland, eastern Czechia,
Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. For
winter rapeseed, the sowing window has come to an end.
For winter cereals, timely completion of the sowing
campaign is still possible in the coming weeks.
At EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were
revised downwards, mostly based on a reanalysis of data
since the start of the season.
Contents: 1. Agrometeorological overview 2. Sowing conditions 3. Country analysis 4. Crop yield forecasts 5. Atlas
Covers the period from 1 September to 20 October 2020
Pre-press version Issued: 26 October 2020
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 28 No 10
JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe
October 2020
Too dry, then too wet Rainfall brings mixed blessings to Europe’s drought hit regions
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1 Agrometeorological overview
1.1 Areas of concern
Warm and dry summer weather continued during the first
three weeks of September in most of Europe and led to a
distinct surplus in accumulated temperatures, particularly
in a wide belt from north to south in eastern Europe,
Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean region. In most of
these regions, the analysis period was the warmest in our
records (since 1979). Impacts on crops were very limited
because most summer crops were already in ripening
stage or beyond; however, in south-eastern Turkey, where
summer crops are planted late (after the harvesting of
winter crops), the grain-filling period was unfavourably
shortened.
A large rainfall deficit, with less than half of seasonal
values, was recorded in Portugal, southern and north-
eastern Spain, north-eastern Greece, eastern Turkey,
eastern Ukraine, and a large part of European Russia.
Abundant rainfall and a clear rain surplus was recorded,
mainly in the second half of the analysis period, in most
of France, northern Italy and regions along the western
side of the Apennines, the western Balkans, western
Greece, most of Austria, southern Poland, Czechia,
Slovakia, north-western Romania and western Ukraine.
These wet conditions at the end of September and in
October delayed harvesting of summer crops in western
and south-western France, the Benelux countries,
southern Poland, eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary,
Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.
Rapeseed sowings were hampered in France, Romania,
Bulgaria and Ukraine, where dry summer conditions
prolonged into September, preventing timely sowing. In
general, the sowing window has come to an end, also for
late varieties. The sowing campaign of winter cereals
started mainly in dry conditions across Europe. While it
was concluded mostly in October in northern regions, it
was delayed in many western, central and eastern regions
– initially due to dry soil conditions for most of September,
and later due to overly wet conditions. Timely completion
of the sowing campaign is still possible in the coming
weeks. The current dry conditions are delaying sowing in
Portugal and southern Spain
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1.2 Meteorological review (1 September to 20 October 2020) Warmer-than-usual conditions in eastern, south-
eastern and northern Europe, European Russia and Turkey.
In the eastern part of this large region (i.e. east of Poland
and Hungary), daily mean temperatures 2-4°C (locally 4-6°C) above the LTA were observed. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were recorded in the rest of this
large region and in some areas of Italy and northern
France, with daily mean temperature anomalies from
+0.5°C to +2°C. Slightly colder-than-usual conditions were observed
in southern France, some areas of Spain, northern Italy,
and northern UK. Daily mean temperature anomalies from
-2°C to -0.5°C were recorded.
The first three weeks of September were essentially a
continuation of summer, with dry and warm weather conditions in most of Europe. September, overall, was
the warmest on record both at the European and global
scale. More than seven hot days (with daily maximum
temperature above 30°C) were recorded in large regions
of western and south-eastern Europe. The second half of
the analysis period featured continued warm weather in
eastern Europe, while in western parts autumn arrived
with average to slightly below-average temperatures. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in large
regions of Europe, mostly due to rainfall accumulated in
the second half of the analysis period (except for Finland,
Estonia, European Russia and Greece). The first three
weeks of September showed quite a contrasting picture,
with dry conditions in most parts of Europe except for the
Iberian Peninsula, Finland, northern Russia and Greece.
Across the entire analysis period, total precipitation
anomalies from 50% to 140% (locally higher) were
recorded in western France, Italy, Austria, along the
Balkans, England, the Scandinavian Peninsula, Finland and
Romania. Meanwhile, in a very large region of eastern
Europe, centred across Czechia and Slovakia, anomalies
higher than 140% of the LTA were observed. Drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in the
southern part of the Iberian Peninsula, Turkey, and the
southern part of European Russia. Total precipitation
anomalies mainly ranged from -50% to -100%. Storm Alex hit Europe at the end of September/beginning
of October, triggering heavy rainfall and floods in south-
eastern France/north-western Italy.
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1.3 Weather forecast (24 – 30 October)
Weather conditions will be dominated by a cyclonic disturbance over the central Mediterranean region at the beginning
of the forecast period that will favour precipitation in the Balkans, and by a trough developing north of the UK, deepening
towards the western Mediterranean region, moving towards Greece, and triggering intense precipitation events in south-
eastern Europe.
Slightly colder-than-usual conditions are expected in
the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy, and the
region of the Alps. Daily mean temperature anomalies of
-2°C to -0.5°C are forecast. Slightly-warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast
in northern France, the Benelux countries, Germany,
Czechia, the western Balkans, and northern Sweden. Daily
mean temperature anomalies of 0.5°C to 2°C are forecast. Considerably warmer-than-usual conditions are
expected in most of central-eastern, south-eastern, and
northern Europe including northern Germany, with daily
mean temperature anomalies of 2°C to 6°C (higher in the
Black Sea region). Dry conditions, with less than 5 mm of cumulative
precipitation, are expected in large regions of the Iberian
Peninsula, eastern Europe and the eastern side of the
Black Sea. Wet conditions, with cumulative precipitation between
10 mm and 40 mm, are forecast in central Europe and the
Mediterranean region. Higher total precipitation values
(locally above 60 mm) are forecast in large regions of
south-eastern Europe, the Alps, north-western Spain, the
western coast of the UK, and southern Norway. The long-range weather forecast for November,
December and January points to likely occurring warmer-
than-usual conditions in the Mediterranean region (very
likely in the eastern Mediterranean region), in large
regions of eastern Europe/Russia, and in northern Europe.
Drier-than-usual conditions are likely to occur in the
Iberian Peninsula and the eastern Mediterranean region.
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2 Sowing conditions
Winter rapeseed Dry conditions prevented timely sowing in France and south-eastern Europe
Rapeseed sowings have been hampered in France,
Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine, as dry summer conditions
continued into September. The dry conditions prevented
timely sowing. Conversely, conditions have been
favourable in Germany, Poland, Denmark and the Baltic
countries, and a good start to the season is expected. The
cultivated area in these regions may somewhat
compensate for the decrease expected in those countries
exposed to the dry September conditions.
In France, dry soils observed in the main producing
regions, Centre and Champagne-Ardennes, hampered
sowings and contributed to a decrease in sown area.
Conditions were more favourable in western regions, with
rains at the end of August. Substantial rainfall has been
observed since the last dekad of September. However,
although this replenished soil moisture, field work was
interrupted and late sown varieties could not be sown
since the sowing window is now coming to an end.
In Germany, substantial rainfall was observed in the main
producing regions at the end of August, partly replenishing
soil moisture after a dry period. The rain stopped during
the second dekad of September, thus allowing farmers to
proceed with sowing. Substantial rainfall was also
observed at the end of September, which will ensure a
good start to the season and emergence. Conditions have
been particularly favourable for mid- and late-season
varieties.
Similarly, in Poland, sowing conditions have been good.
Whilst there were several days in September without
substantial rainfall, a rain surplus observed from mid-
August compensated for this. However, although the start
to the season was beneficial, recent heavy rainfall (30-40 mm on 13 October) has saturated soils, and some
damage is to be expected.
In Denmark, Sweden and the Baltic countries, substantial
rainfall was observed towards the end of August and
beginning of September, followed by several days without
any rainfall. Farmers benefited from this window to
proceed with sowing, while the rain observed at the end of
September and beginning of October ensured a good start
to the season.
In the region of the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Romania and
south-western Ukraine, dry conditions did not allow timely
sowing, and as the sowing window has come to an end,
sowing intentions could not be fully realised. A difficult
start to the season is to be expected.
Conditions in Hungary have been beneficial, but the low
yield for rapeseed last year dissuaded many farmers from
cultivating rapeseed.
Winter cereals (soft wheat, winter barley, rye, triticale) Too dry and too wet conditions delayed sowing across Europe
The sowing campaign of winter cereals started mainly in
dry conditions across Europe. While it was mostly
concluded in October in northern regions, It was delayed in
many western, central and eastern regions – initially due
to dry soil conditions for most of September, and later due
to overly wet conditions in October. Timely completion of
the sowing campaign is still possible in the coming weeks.
In the Baltic countries, the sowing of winter cereals was
completed by the end of September, within the optimal
window and with favourable conditions for emergence.
Similarly, in Sweden and Denmark, sowing progressed well
during the dry September, and the rainfall in October
created optimal conditions for early growth. In Finland, the
unstable weather of September caused delays to winter
sowing, which could still be mostly concluded in October
with satisfactory emergence.
In Ireland, the Netherlands (except in the south), Germany
and the United Kingdom, sowing was able to progress well
during September despite the dry weather and, although
slowed down by heavy rainfall at the end of September
and beginning of October, was able to recover in the
second dekad of October. In these countries, the variable
rainfall during the review period allowed planting to
continue mostly under favourable conditions. Emergence
was slowed by the colder weather of October.
In France, the southern part of the Benelux countries, and
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Poland, field preparation could start after the dry
September, but heavy and frequent rainfall delayed the
sowing campaign. Similarly, in Slovakia, eastern Czechia,
Slovenia and Croatia, overly wet conditions complicated
field preparation and sowings.
In Hungary – and to a lesser degree in Bulgaria and
Romania – sowing was delayed by the unfavourable dry
soil conditions until early October, when heavy rainfall
caused further delays.
In Ukraine, the sowing of winter wheat and barley was
delayed by dry conditions that occurred particularly in the
south-west, although soil conditions slightly improved
with the rainfall of October.
In Spain and Portugal, sowing usually starts by mid-
October, and the current dry conditions could delay
sowings in southern Spain and Portugal.
In Italy and Greece, the optimal sowing window for cereals
begins in November.
For durum wheat, it is still early for sowing in all the
producing EU countries. First sowing operations usually
start during the last week of October.
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3 Country headlines
3.1 European Union
France One difficult cropping season after another
While warm and dry weather prevailed during the first and
second dekads of September, temperatures dropped
below seasonal values around 20 September,
accompanied by rainy weather with cumulative rainfall
exceeding the LTA.
Although the harvest of most summer crops is completed, the heavy rainfall observed from 20 September onwards
delayed the harvest of late-grown grain maize, sugar beet
and potatoes. Yield forecasts for summer crops have been
maintained close to or below the average for the last two
years. There is still some uncertainty regarding final yields,
especially as sugar beet seems to be negatively impacted
by yellowing, which is not considered in our model. While
a disappointing season is ending, there is also currently a
difficult start to the next winter cropping season, with
some strong similarities so far to the conditions observed
last year. Again, dry weather was not favourable for
rapeseed sowing. Sowings of winter wheat started, but
were first delayed by the dry weather, then the rainy
weather observed since 20 September stopped most field
work.
Germany Despite some bottlenecks, sufficient progress in sowing
September continued to be dry and mild, even with a few
hot days, until about the end of the month when frequent
and abundant rain set in and initiated a period of unstable
weather, with decidedly cooler temperatures following the
normal course of temperature decrease in autumn. This
course of weather allowed for good initial progress in
harvesting and sowing, despite very dry topsoil conditions
in places, but it was then interrupted by the October rains.
These rains are badly needed to replenish soil moisture
and aquifers, following another dry season.
For winter cereals, there is still sufficient time to complete
sowing activities within a suitable window if favourable
conditions persist in the coming weeks; nevertheless,
problems are reported in Baden Württemberg in relation
to the sowing of winter barley. Our September yield
forecasts were essentially maintained, with a slight
downward revision for sugar beet. Overall, the yield
forecasts are slightly better than last year’s mediocre
level and are very close to the 5-year average.
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Poland Wet conditions delay harvest of grain maize
The analysis period was characterised by wetter-than-usual conditions (with rainfall > 30% above the seasonal
average) in major parts of the country. The northern
regions were the exception, and here cumulative rainfall
was around or below the average. Rainfall that started at
the end of September and continued in October resulted
in overly wet topsoil conditions in many regions, as well as
local inundations. Temperatures oscillated around the LTA.
Sowing of winter crops and harvesting of green maize,
potatoes and sugar beet advanced well in September.
Rains that commenced at the end of September delayed
drying down of maize kernels and impaired the onset of
grain-maize harvesting operations. Inevitably, sowing of
remaining winter cereals was also delayed. Harvesting of
sugar beet, which started in mid-September, provided very
variable yield results and unusually low sugar levels. Rainy
weather favoured the development of fungal diseases in
sugar beet, which are observed in many plantations.
We maintain our yield forecasts similar to the ones
reported in the September Bulletin.
Ireland Winter sowing progressing well under adequate soil conditions
Temperatures were above average until the second dekad
of September, after which it remained unusually cold.
Rainfall was close to seasonal values in the north and east
of the country, but scarce for this time of year in the south.
The difficult harvest was concluded during the second
dekad of September. Winter sowing started with
favourable soil conditions and within the optimal window.
Sowing progressed better in the south of the country than
in the other areas. This is mostly due to the heavier rainfall
in the northern and eastern areas at the end of September
and beginning of October. Sowing progress recovered at
the end of the review period. The harvesting of green
maize is under way without significant problems.
The yield forecasts remain practically unaltered compared
to the September issue of the Bulletin.
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Spain and Portugal Portugal and southern Spain still dry; favourable conditions elsewhere
During the analysis period, rainfall was well above
average in Castilla y León, which to a large extent was due
to a single event on 20 October. Likewise, Central Portugal
also benefited from very recent rainfall. Below-average
rainfall was recorded in Castilla la Mancha, Extremadura
and Andalucía. Here, the water deficit accumulated since
spring continues, and water levels in the reservoirs in
Andalucía remain far below the LTA. In Portugal, rainfall
was 20-50% of the LTA for the period 1 September to 20
October – among the driest periods recorded.
Our yield forecasts remain essentially unchanged. For
potatoes, our yield forecast remains average for Spain and
above average for Portugal. Forecast yields for grain
maize and green maize are maintained around the 5-year
average, as dry conditions have both favoured ripening
and allowed easy field access and harvesting.
Harvesting conditions are also favourable for sunflowers,
and the harvest of grain maize is finishing successfully in
most regions. At the same time, sowing and emergence
conditions for rapeseed are somewhat hampered by dry
soils. Castilla y León excepted, non-irrigated winter crops
such as rye, winter wheat, winter barley, and also sugar
beet in Andalucía, need rainfall in the coming weeks to
enable sowing/planting and improve conditions for crop
establishment.
Italy Positive expectations for summer crops confirmed
In Italy, the analysis period was generally wet in all the
northern regions and along the Tyrrhenian coast.
Precipitation was mainly concentrated in October, with unusual rainfall episodes on 2 October in Liguria and
Piemonte (74 mm and 65 mm in a day, respectively). Daily
temperatures were around or slightly above the LTA in
September, then gradually decreased to 1-2°C below the
average in October. Overall, the season was favourable for
summer crops. In Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia Romagna;
grain and green maize benefited from the alternating wet
and hot weather throughout the growing and reproductive
periods. Remote sensing and crop model indicators depict
above-average biomass for soybean districts in Veneto
and Friuli Venezia Giulia, and for the sunflower cultivated
areas of Marche, Toscana and Umbria. Our forecasts for
the country are confirmed above the 5-year average. The
optimal period for the sowing of winter cereals will begin
in late October.
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Hungary High yield expectations for summer crops
In the period 1-25 September, Hungary was characterised
by scarce rains and 2-3°C warmer-than-usual thermal
conditions. Later, temperatures approached near-average
conditions and precipitation increased considerably.
During the review period as a whole, cumulative rainfall typically reached 50-100 mm in the southern half of
Hungary, though northern regions received 100-200 mm.
Heavy, locally excessive, rains on 12-13 October caused
floods and water logging, primarily in north-eastern
Hungary.
Dry topsoil conditions in late August and the first two
dekads of September delayed the sowing and emergence
of rapeseed. A decrease in rapeseed sowing area is
probable. Unequal crop development and heterogeneous
crop stands are likely, except along the western border in
areas with better water supply. The sowing campaign for
winter cereals started in late September, but is currently
hampered by wet conditions.
Harvest of sunflowers, potatoes and sugar beet
progressed well. The grain maize harvest seems to be
more problematic, due to recent rain and increased risk of
fusarium infections. The yield forecast for grain maize
was maintained at a very high level. After a re-analysis of
this summer’s weather conditions, the yield forecasts for
sunflowers and root crops were revised slightly
downwards, but remain decidedly positive.
Romania Low yields for grain maize and sunflowers
Considering the review period (1 September – 20 October)
as a whole, there was a positive thermal anomaly reaching
2.5-3.5°C in the eastern regions (the highest in our
records, since 1979), while elsewhere an anomaly of 1.5-
2.5°C prevailed.
Sparse precipitation was experienced in most of Romania
until 25 September: typically, only 10-60% of the LTA (0-
18 mm) rainfall was recorded. Only Sud-Muntenia and
some adjacent areas received substantial precipitation
(20-50 mm) during this dry spell. In late September, a wet
period began and rainfall totals reached 50-150 mm,
except for some south-eastern areas which still remained
drier than usual.
The harvest of summer crops progressed well in
September, but frequent and abundant rains have
hampered it since late September. Overly dry conditions
made soil preparation difficult and energy-intensive.
Conditions for sowing and early growth of rapeseed were
also below optimal. The sowing campaign of winter
cereals is delayed due to current rains.
The yield forecast for grain maize was revised further
downwards, due to the drought of this summer, which
affected the main producing regions. The yield outlook for
sunflowers and other summer crops is also weak.
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Bulgaria Delayed sowing campaign
Very warm weather characterised the review period (1
September – 20 October), resulting in a positive thermal
anomaly of 2-4°C. This period is among the warmest in
our climate archive since 1979. Precipitation occurred in
the first five days of September and particularly after 5
October, while the period in between was characterised by
significant rainfall deficit. Considering the period as a
whole, precipitation totals reached 60-100 mm in the
northern half of Bulgaria, while the southern regions
received only 40-70 mm.
Dry weather conditions allowed good advancement of the
harvest in September, but abundant rains in October
caused some delays to its completion; however, it is close
to conclusion. The yield forecast for grain maize was
revised further downwards to a very low level, in light of
the unfavourable growing conditions during this cropping
season. The outlook for sunflowers was maintained at a
below-average level. Dry topsoil conditions delayed the
sowing of rapeseed and also hampered emergence and
early crop development. The sowing campaign for winter
cereals is probably also significantly delayed, although soil
moisture conditions improved in October.
Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia Frequent rainfall causing delays to sowing of winter cereals
The analysis period was characterised by warmer-than-
usual weather, with temperatures between 0.5°C and 2°C
above the LTA. Western Czechia remained essentially dry
during the first two dekads of September. This period was
followed by frequent, regionally intensive, rainfall events
in Slovakia, Austria and eastern Czechia. Central and
southern Austria and large parts of Slovakia recorded
more than 200 mm of rainfall during the overall analysis
period. This caused soil moisture saturation and
waterlogging in some regions.
The yield forecast for grain maize in Czechia was revised
slightly downwards, due to the continued drier-than-usual
summer in north-western Czechia (especially Severozapad
region). The minor downward revision of the yield forecast
for grain maize in Slovakia, on the other hand, is mainly a
consequence of potential harvest losses due to frequent
rainfall at the end of September and in the first half of
October. The rainfall also caused delays to field
preparation and sowing of winter cereals. The weather in
the coming weeks will be crucial for finalising both the
harvest of summer crops and the sowing campaign of
winter cereals.
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Denmark and Sweden Beneficial weather conditions for harvest and sowing
The weather was slightly drier and warmer than usual over
the analysis period. This benefited both harvest and winter
crop sowings.
Cumulative rainfall since the beginning of September is
slightly below the LTA in Denmark and Sweden. The
analysis period was also characterised by higher-than-
usual temperatures, with the last dekad of September and
first dekad of October being 2-3°C above the LTA. The dry
periods observed from August onwards have been
favourable to the harvest of winter and spring crops, and
benefited the sowing of winter cereals. Sufficient rainfall
ensured emergence of the newly sown crops. The harvest
of winter crops and spring cereals is finished, and yield
forecasts have been maintained substantially above the
5-year average for most crops, although slightly below
last year. The lower yields compared to last year are
mainly explained by the dry conditions observed this
spring.
Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Autumn sowing complete, with good establishment
Temperatures exceeded the LTA, particularly during the
last two dekads of September, which were the warmest in
our records (kept since 1979) for the Baltic countries and
the second warmest for the southern areas of Finland. In
the Baltic countries, rainfall totals were below average
across the period and also unevenly distributed: intense
rainfall was concentrated during the first dekad of
September and the last dekad of the review period. In
Finland, precipitation was variable across the country, with
the heaviest rains falling in the central part of the country.
In the Baltic countries, sowing of winter cereals had been
completed by the end of September, within the optimal
time window and with good emergence. The unstable
weather of September continued to characterise the
spring cereal harvest in Finland and delayed winter
sowings, which had nevertheless concluded by October
with satisfactory emergence. The harvesting of potatoes,
sugar beet, and grain maize was ongoing without
significant problems. The yield forecasts remain
practically unchanged compared to the September
Bulletin, but were revised upwards for sugar beet in
Finland due to beneficial rainfall.
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Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg Dry September and wet October hamper harvesting and sowing
Relatively dry conditions continued until about 22
September, when frequent (almost daily) and abundant
rain set in, which continued until about 11 October. As a
consequence, harvesting of sugar beet and potatoes and
the sowing of winter cereals – which had initially been
hampered by dry topsoil conditions (especially in
Luxembourg, Belgium and southern parts of the
Netherlands, where August rain had also been below
average) – incurred further delays due to overly wet
conditions. Conditions improved at the end of the review
period, allowing field activities to resume at full speed
once excessive soil wetness was drained. For winter
cereals, there is still sufficient time to complete sowing
activities within a suitable window if favourable conditions
persist in the coming weeks. In the case of potatoes and
sugar beet, the excessive wetness and harvesting delays
will mainly translate into quality loss.
Our September yield forecasts were essentially
maintained, with a slight downward revision for potatoes
in both Belgium and the Netherlands. Overall, the yield
forecasts are very similar to last year’s mediocre level and
the 5-year average.
Greece and Cyprus Overly wet conditions weaken maize yield expectations
In Greece, wet and warm weather prevailed during the
review period. Rainfall was unequally distributed in space
and time. Cumulative precipitation was 100-150 mm
above average in most of the central and western regions;
while Central Macedonia (to the north) received 50-100
mm less than expected. However, the lack of rainfall in
Central Macedonia was compensated for in the summer
crops, as these are predominantly irrigated. Rainfall
events were unevenly distributed and occurred mainly on
18 September and 10 October. This unconventional
pluviometry was caused by ‘medicane’ (Mediterranean
hurricane) Ianos1, which was also responsible for floods2
along the valley of Thessaly. These led to delays in maize
harvesting and localised maize yield losses.
The harvest of summer crops in Greece has generally
progressed well this season, although it has not been fully
completed yet. The sowing campaign for winter wheat
began in early October without constraints. Our yield
1 https://www.cmcc.it/article/the-medicane-ianos-fingerprint-as-sweeps-across-greece 2 https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-components/EMSR465
forecasts are revised only slightly downwards for green
and grain maize and remain above the 5-year average.
This is to account for both the negative impact of the
extreme weather, but also the positive growth conditions
observed in the northern maize districts. Yield forecasts
are confirmed for all other summer crops.
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Slovenia and Croatia Recent rainfall has interrupted the sowing of winter cereals
The first two dekads of September were warmer than
usual and mainly dry, with the last heatwave of the
season in coastal and eastern Croatia reaching maximum
temperatures up to 34°C. This period was followed by
temperatures around the seasonal average and frequent,
regionally also intensive, rainfall events, especially in
Slovenia and western Croatia. While in eastern Croatia
total rainfall for the analysis period remained roughly 10-
30% below the LTA, above-average cumulates were
experienced elsewhere. Western Slovenia and coastal
Croatia regionally recorded more than 300 mm, which is
more than double the LTA.
While sunflower harvesting has been mainly concluded,
the grain maize harvesting campaign has been interrupted
in Slovenia and central Croatia by frequent rainfall events
starting at the end of September. Furthermore, heavy
rainfall led locally to waterlogging and has been causing
significant delay in winter cereal sowing in both Slovenia
and Croatia. The weather in the following weeks will be
crucial for finalising the harvest of grain maize and the
sowing of winter cereals.
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3.2 United Kingdom Winter sowing well underway with good emergence
Temperatures exceeded the LTA until the second dekad of
September, after which below seasonal values prevailed.
The review period was mostly dry, with the exception of
two wet dekads, at the end of September and the
beginning of October, with rainfall markedly more
abundant in the South than in the northern areas.
The predominantly dry weather of September facilitated
harvest in the northern areas with good reported yields.
The sowing of winter cereals started on-time and in good
seedbeds, and has proceeded well, despite some
disruptions due to rainfall (particularly in the East of
England). The earliest sown oilseed rape emerged well.
Disease pressure increased on sugar beet and potato
crops. The sugar beet harvesting campaign started in
October. Potato harvest progressed well.
Due to the limited harvest losses in the northern areas,
our spring barley forecast was slightly increased, with
values now close to the average. Due to the increased
disease pressure, we lowered the forecasts for sugar beet
and potatoes, and these are now close to the historical
trend.
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3.3 Black Sea Area
Ukraine Poor outlook for grain maize
Temperatures have been exceptionally warmer than the
LTA for the entire analysis period, with the exception of a
few days at the end of September. This year is the
warmest on our record at country scale for the period
under review. September was also exceptionally dry, but
heavy rainfalls were observed at the end of
September/beginning of October, as well as in the second
dekad of October. This precipitation allowed recently sown
winter crops to emerge, and soil moisture contents are
mostly satisfactory now for sowings to continue.
However, soil moisture remains particularly low in the
south-western regions Odes’ka and Mykolayivs’ka, which
were exposed to a summer drought. More rain will be
needed to ensure a good start to the season, particularly
for winter barley. The yield forecast for summer crops has
been maintained below last year’s level, and grain maize
may have been impacted much more than previously
thought, with a potentially lower yield than our forecast.
Turkey Summer crops undergo moderate heat stress in September
Above-average cumulative temperature and scarce rainfall characterised the review period (1 September – 20
October) in almost all regions. A prolonged heatwave
occurred in the first half of September in central and
eastern regions, leading to maximum daily temperatures
4-6°C above the LTA. The main effect was that maize and
soybean in the cultivated areas in Adana (20% and 66%
of average national production, respectively) experienced
accelerated grain-filling stages, with moderate impacts on
final production. Harvesting of summer crops is close to
completion in the central regions, and will continue for
another 1-2 dekads to the east, towards the Syrian border.
Our forecasts for summer crops in Turkey are revised
downwards to account for the reported abiotic stress, but
still remain above the 5-year average. The sowing window
for winter crops is not yet open, but will start in November.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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3.4 European Russia and Belarus
European Russia Good pace of autumn sowing campaign
In September and the first half of October, temperatures
considerably exceeded the LTA, except during a short
colder period in September. Prevailing temperatures in the
western side of European Russia were significantly (2-5°C)
higher than usual, while the majority of the eastern part
was only 0.5-2°C milder than usual. Only the southern
regions of the Volga okrug presented near-average overall
thermal conditions.
Rainfall during this period was absent or very limited (less
than half the LTA) in the Southern and North Caucasian
okrugs, as well as in the southern half of the Central okrug.
These regions are suffering from a long-lasting rainfall
deficit that started early this summer. The western part of
the Volga okrug was also drier than usual. Above-average
precipitation was experienced in some areas close to the
Black Sea, in the eastern regions of the Volga okrug, and
in north-western regions of European Russia.
Dry weather conditions allowed a good pace of harvesting
operations. Low topsoil moisture conditions caused
problems for the preparation of seedbeds, but progress of
the autumn sowing campaign was adequate.
The yield outlook for grain maize just reaches the 5-year
average at country level, due to limited water supply
conditions this summer in south-western Russia. More
information and detailed crop yield forecasts can be found
in the dedicated Bulletin for Russia, see
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins.
Belarus Good end to the season for maize
During the analysis period, warmer-than-usual (2-4°C >
LTA) temperatures prevailed across the country.
Cumulative rainfall values were below the LTA in the
western and central regions, resulting in a depletion of
topsoil moisture. On the other hand, rainfall was above the
LTA in the Mogilev and Gomel regions, mainly due to
abundant precipitation in October.
Agrometeorological conditions were generally fair for
sowing and early development of winter crops, with
exception of the Grodno and Gomel regions, where dry
topsoils could negatively impact germination and early
development of plants. Mild temperatures were
favourable for maize ripening, and drying down of kernels.
The grain-maize harvesting campaign is currently in full
swing. Our model indicates above- or close-to-average
storage organ accumulation for grain maize in all regions,
except Grodno where results are below average. We
maintain our grain maize yield expectations presented in
the September Bulletin.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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4 Crop yield forecast
Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
EU 7.58 7.90 7.42 – 2.1 – 6.1AT 10.1 10.4 10.8 + 7.1 + 3.7BE 10.4 10.5 10.4 – 0.5 – 0.6BG 6.48 7.11 5.00 – 23 – 30CY — — — — —CZ 7.30 8.29 8.05 + 10 – 2.9DE 9.21 8.81 9.15 – 0.6 + 3.9DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL 10.3 10.6 10.4 + 1.2 – 1.7ES 11.6 11.8 11.8 + 2.2 + 0.3FI — — — — —FR 8.84 8.55 8.40 – 5.0 – 1.7HR 7.87 9.01 8.88 + 13 – 1.4HU 7.50 8.05 8.63 + 15 + 7.2IE — — — — —IT 10.2 10.0 10.8 + 6.4 + 8.5LT 6.39 7.67 6.26 – 2.1 – 18LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 9.78 9.75 10.0 + 2.3 + 2.6PL 6.09 5.62 6.68 + 10 + 19PT 8.52 8.98 8.71 + 2.2 – 3.1RO 5.52 6.52 4.44 – 20 – 32SE — — — — —SI 8.85 9.27 9.96 + 13 + 7.4SK 6.94 7.39 7.95 + 15 + 7.6
UK — — — — —
Country
Grain maize (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
EU* 40.1 38.9 40.0 – 0.2 + 2.7AT 45.4 46.1 47.4 + 4.4 + 2.6BE 40.3 40.9 42.0 + 4.2 + 2.6BG 21.5 21.4 18.5 – 14 – 14CY — — — — —CZ 34.0 35.5 35.4 + 4.3 – 0.1DE 41.2 39.0 40.0 – 2.8 + 2.6DK 37.4 44.5 40.4 + 8.0 – 9.3EE 30.9 35.4 33.7 + 9.2 – 4.7EL 19.5 17.7 20.4 + 4.3 + 15ES 37.8 35.4 38.1 + 0.9 + 7.7FI — — — — —FR 39.7 37.7 39.1 – 1.4 + 3.8HR 37.6 39.0 37.8 + 0.4 – 3.1HU 28.6 31.5 32.6 + 14 + 3.4IE 50.0 51.3 52.3 + 4.6 + 1.9IT 50.4 50.9 53.7 + 6.6 + 5.6LT 29.0 30.7 28.5 – 1.6 – 7.3LU 44.2 39.4 43.2 – 2.3 + 10LV 32.1 36.1 34.4 + 7.3 – 4.8MT — — — — —NL 41.5 42.7 41.5 + 0.0 – 2.9PL 43.5 40.6 42.8 – 1.5 + 5.5PT 36.8 35.4 35.7 – 3.1 + 0.8RO 27.0 26.7 27.1 + 0.2 + 1.3SE — — — — —SI 46.3 46.2 50.6 + 9.4 + 9.5SK 28.9 30.0 30.5 + 5.8 + 1.8
UK — — — — —
Green maize (t/ha)
Country
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
EU 32.4 32.1 32.6 + 0.4 + 1.6AT 30.3 31.3 34.3 + 13 + 9.5BE 41.0 41.0 42.0 + 2.3 + 2.4BG 17.6 21.3 16.5 – 6.3 – 22CY — — — — —CZ 26.9 27.2 28.9 + 7.5 + 6.2DE 41.8 39.0 41.4 – 0.9 + 6.2DK 41.0 42.5 41.9 + 2.1 – 1.4EE — — — — —EL 27.9 29.5 26.9 – 3.4 – 8.6ES 31.7 33.9 30.1 – 4.8 – 11FI 27.4 28.9 29.0 + 5.8 + 0.4FR 41.2 41.4 40.5 – 1.9 – 2.3HR — — — — —HU 24.4 25.9 27.0 + 11 + 4.3IE — — — — —IT 28.5 29.2 27.9 – 2.1 – 4.5LT 15.8 18.1 18.0 + 14 – 0.5LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 42.0 42.0 42.4 + 1.0 + 1.0PL 24.8 21.4 25.0 + 0.8 + 17PT 20.8 22.7 22.0 + 5.8 – 2.9RO 15.7 15.1 15.9 + 1.0 + 5.2SE 34.2 35.8 33.3 – 2.6 – 7.0SI — — — — —SK — — — — —
UK 40.5 36.5 41.3 + 2.2 + 13
Country
Potato (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
EU 74.6 73.8 72.5 – 2.8 – 1.9AT 70.8 70.5 76.4 + 8.0 + 8.4BE 84.9 88.0 83.0 – 2.3 – 5.7BG — — — — —CY — — — — —CZ 62.7 61.8 62.3 – 0.6 + 0.7DE 73.6 72.7 74.1 + 0.7 + 1.9DK 69.9 80.7 71.7 + 2.5 – 11EE — — — — —EL — — — — —ES 90.0 91.2 89.6 – 0.5 – 1.8FI 37.9 47.6 41.3 + 9.0 – 13FR 87.0 84.7 81.6 – 6.2 – 3.7HR 61.9 61.2 64.2 + 3.8 + 5.0HU 62.3 58.5 69.5 + 11 + 19IE — — — — —IT 64.6 66.8 63.9 – 1.0 – 4.3LT 59.3 71.0 58.0 – 2.2 – 18LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 83.1 83.9 83.5 + 0.5 – 0.5PL 60.9 57.5 57.4 – 5.6 – 0.1PT — — — — —RO 40.0 40.4 34.0 – 15 – 16SE 63.6 74.0 64.5 + 1.3 – 13SI — — — — —SK 59.7 57.6 63.5 + 6.4 + 10
UK 70.5 69.1 70.8 + 0.5 + 2.5
Country
Sugar beets (t/ha)
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Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
EU 2.25 2.32 2.15 – 4.2 – 7.1AT 2.68 3.00 2.83 + 5.7 – 5.8BE — — — — —BG 2.28 2.35 2.02 – 11 – 14CY — — — — —CZ 2.43 2.44 2.41 – 0.9 – 1.2DE 2.02 2.04 2.14 + 6.1 + 4.7DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL 2.59 2.80 2.51 – 3.0 – 10ES 1.15 1.12 1.21 + 5.2 + 7.9FI — — — — —FR 2.27 2.15 2.26 – 0.6 + 4.9HR 2.90 3.02 2.92 + 0.7 – 3.2HU 2.88 3.00 2.94 + 2.1 – 2.0IE — — — — —IT 2.37 2.47 2.44 + 2.8 – 1.2LT — — — — —LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL — — — — —PL — — — — —PT — — — — —RO 2.47 2.64 2.16 – 13 – 18SE — — — — —SI — — — — —SK 2.66 2.64 2.83 + 6.2 + 7.2
UK — — — — —
Country
Sunflower (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
EU 2.94 3.03 3.01 + 2.5 – 0.5AT 2.86 3.11 2.78 – 2.8 – 11BE — — — — —BG — — — — —CY — — — — —CZ 2.10 2.27 2.28 + 8.5 + 0.4DE — — — — —DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL — — — — —ES — — — — —FI — — — — —FR 2.66 2.62 2.66 + 0.2 + 1.6HR 2.79 3.15 2.89 + 3.6 – 8.5HU 2.60 2.78 2.92 + 13 + 5.2IE — — — — —IT 3.61 3.66 3.94 + 9.0 + 7.6LT — — — — —LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL — — — — —PL — — — — —PT — — — — —RO 2.39 2.55 2.23 – 6.8 – 13SE — — — — —SI — — — — —SK 2.22 2.46 2.56 + 15 + 4.0
UK — — — — —
Country
Soybean (t/ha)
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
BY 5.86 6.00 5.74 – 2.1 – 4.3TR 9.40 9.40 9.51 + 1.2 + 1.2UA 6.59 7.19 6.69 + 1.4 – 7.0
Country
Grain maize (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
BY 3.08 3.50 3.64 + 18 + 3.9TR 2.70 2.64 2.80 + 3.8 + 6.1UA 3.19 3.42 3.23 + 1.3 – 5.6
Country
Barley (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
BY 3.51 3.83 3.89 + 11 + 1.6TR 2.78 2.78 2.90 + 4.3 + 4.5UA 4.01 4.16 3.98 – 1.0 – 4.4
Country
Wheat (t/ha)
Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020
forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19
BY — — — — —TR 4.33 4.25 4.55 + 5.0 + 7.0UA 2.19 2.29 2.34 + 7.2 + 2.4
Country
Soybean (t/ha)
NB:
Sources:
* The EU figures do not include green maize forecasts for Sweden since recent data on yields were not consistent.
The column header '%20/5yrs’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to the 5-year average (%). Similarly, '%20/19’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to 2019 (%).
Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country with sufficently long and coherent yield time series.
2015-2020 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development short-term-outlook data (dated September 2020, received on 07.10.2020), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 09.10.2020) and EES (last update: 15.11.2017).Non-EU 2015-2019 data come from USDA, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 09.10.2020), State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD-online.
2020 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 10.10.2020).
EU aggregate after 1.2.2020 is reported.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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5 Atlas
Temperature regime
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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Precipitation
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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Climatic water balance
Weather events
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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Maize
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020
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JRC MARS Bulletins 2020
Date Publication Reference
27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 25 Mar Agromet analysis, yield
forecast Vol. 28 No 3
27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing conditions, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 4
18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing update, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 5
15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 6
27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, harvesting conditions, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 7
24 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, harvesting update, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 8
14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, harvesting update, yield forecast,
Vol. 28 No 9
27 Oct Agromet analysis, sowing conditions, harvesting update, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 10
25 Nov Agromet analysis, pasture analysis, sowing update, harvesting update
Vol. 28 No 11
14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12
The current JRC MARS Bulletin — Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources)
JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins
Analysis and reports B. Baruth, S. Bassu, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, Y. Chemin, P. De Palma, D. Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini
Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern
Edition B. Baruth, M. van den Berg, S. Niemeyer, M. van der Velde, A. Belward
Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)
Contact JRC D5 / MARS4CAST [email protected]
Legal notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.
Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.
Technical note:
The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.
Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.