JPI Climate, H2020, &

Climate Change

Frank McGovern

October 2nd 2014,

Dublin

Outline of presentation

Context for the JPI Process and H2020

JPI Climates; objectives, structures and processes

H2020 and JPI Climate

EPA Actions

Some headline issues

Context for JPI Climate

Key issue 35% of H2020 budget climate change related research

Research is central to actions on climate change it is exemplified by the work of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Expecting a new Global Agreement to address climate change next year in Paris

Highly influence by material in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report

EU & Global Goal to keep the global temperature increase below 2C

Observations are also vital: Global Climate Observation System (GCOS)

GEO/GEOSS supported by Dg Research

DG Enterprise/Copernicus formally GMES

A growing array of in-situ, remote, drone etc

…….we have problem!

IPCC AR5: A straightforward storyline

Warming is unequivocal, it is essentially due to anthropogenic GHG emissions, in particular due to CO2 from fossil fuel burning.

The global goal is to maintain the planet within 2°C warming

We have already emitted more than 50% of the allowable cumulative GHG emissions for this;

At current levels, this limit will be reached before 2050.

Impacts are evident everywhere and will increase e.g. sea-level rise.

Adaptation is possible, but increasing warmer increases the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts.

There are limits to adaptation, and costs grow with warming.

Emission trends are at an all time high and are increasing.

Mitigation trajectories are possible in order to stay below 2°C; however,

The later emissions peak and decrease the higher the costs will be,

We have a choice, and still a small window of opportunity to act.

The JPI Climate process

JPI Climate is a collaboration between 14 European countries including Ireland, to

coordinate climate change research and fund new transnational research initiatives.

Goal: To significantly contribute to underpinning the European efforts to respond to

climate change

Its generic aims are

to overcome research fragmentation,

to make better use of public R&D resources and

to facilitate research collaboration between top scientists.

to connect scientific disciplines and increases science-practice

interaction

Website: http://www.jpi-climate.eu/home

JPI Climate: Specific areas and structure

JPI Climate has an agreed Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) its implementation is

built upon four modules/themes

1: Moving towards Reliable Decadal Climate Predictions

2: Research supporting Climate Service Development and Deployment

3: Sustainable Transformations of Society in the Face of Climate Change

4: Improving Tools for Decision-Making under Climate Change

It aims to promotes an interdisciplinary approach in connecting natural‐ with

socio‐economic sciences

It is guided, coordinated and managed through a flexible collaborative governance

mechanism.

1. Decadal Climate Predictions

Objective: to provide enhanced climate information and climate prediction

capacities with a shorter term focus.

Climate prediction has been focused on mid and end of century projections.

A substantial development of climate models is needed based on improved understanding

of processes and more advanced observation systems.

This requires a long-term strategy for observations, experimental studies and modelling at

various spatial and temporal scales.

Provision of short time scale projections i.e. seasonal to decadal is a key challenge which

match a range of planning and investment decision scales.

However, achievability of this is an open question!

1. Decadal Climate Predictions

The goal is reliable climate information from decadal to centennial scale

Key issues include

• Natural internal variability of the climate system.

• Extreme events and abrupt changes

• Ongoing and long term systems changes

• Key processes and dealing with uncertainties.

Aims include

to improve observations, understanding and modelling of key processes/mechanisms

to promote and develop a European climate modelling collaboration

to develop a European collaboration environment for long-term monitoring and analysis

of the Earth system

The aim is to meet demands across Europe for CS through

• Research into the development and deployment of CS and

• By establishing a network of CS providers, who can exchange knowledge and

share learning.

Goals are

• To enhance the efficiency of the set up and deployment of Climate Services in the

individual European countries

• To improve consistency in the methods/approaches used by the Climate Services in

the individual European countries

• To optimize the quality of Climate Services

• To avoid duplication in the development of tools/methods

• To improve the communication of climate knowledge to end-users and experts using

data for impact research and applied research

2. Climate Service (CS) Development and

Deployment

Areas of priority joint research are the following:

• Development and deployment of CS improving data accessibility, quality control

• Communication of climate knowledge to end-users; this involves

• Understanding user-needs,

• identifying “climate sensitivities” associated with decision making

• Development of tools/methods to communicate climate information

• Improving the interface between climate research and its application

• improving the interface between climate and climate impacts research,

improving the interface between research and CS providers

• In order to avoid duplication of efforts, enable the development of a “European

Network of Climate Service" (ENCS).

Climate Service (CS) Development and

Deployment

Basis: Knowledge of the causes and consequences of climate change is not matched by

an equivalent understanding of the societal challenges it poses.

It encompasses the societal transformations necessary

• To confront climate change

• To develop sustainable and equitable production patterns and lifestyles,

• While maintaining and raising the quality of life within Europe and globally.

The multiple interrelations between societal responses to climate change, as well as other

societal and environmental mega-trends requires that,

• Interdisciplinary research on sustainable transformations of society

The normative underpinnings of the need for sustainable transformations, understanding,

developing and implementing social and economic responses to climate change requires

• Trans-disciplinary research and action.

3. Sustainable Transformations of Society

Key objectives:

To initiate interdisciplinary research to enhance the understanding of the social context

(e.g. politics, economics, society, culture) of mitigation and adaptation responses to climate

change in Europe

Stimulating research on societal barriers and incentives to respond to climate change

Enabling integrated analyses of international, national and regional response strategies to

socio-ecological and socio-economic limits and opportunities of mitigation and adaptation.

Developing and implementing integrated socio-ecological evaluation criteria for

sustainable transformation scenarios and processes.

Supporting an integrated view on the societal impacts of climate change, also in relation

to other global change trends.

Developing governance strategies, involving governments, businesses and NGOs, for

sustainable societal transformations on the regional and (supra)national levels.

Facilitating transdisciplinary exchange on objective of sustainable societal transformations

towards 'carbon neutral', adaptive and climate-proof European societies

3 Sustainable Transformations of Society

Key issues

Advanced assessment models and scenarios are essentials tools and metrics for provision of both

mitigation and adaptation analyses.

Scenarios and scenario‐based tools have demonstrated their utility for multi‐layered analysis of

connections between temporally and spatially distant developments and phenomena and are tools

for communication between and within the scientific and policy communities.

They are also learning tools and support planning processes to explore alternatives or the long‐term

and cross‐scale consequences of certain developments or strategic decisions.

Decision‐making tools can help make 'robust' decisions based on a better understanding of risks

and uncertainties, trade‐offs and feedbacks as well as opportunities and interdependencies.

.

4 Improving Tools for Decision-Making

Overall aim ; to develop a consistent climate and socio-economic scenarios and scenario-

based decision support systems that reflect the global forces that shape regional and local

processes and vice versa.

Objectives include:

Categorizing and communicating risks and uncertainties: Understanding user needs in

terms of potential climate related risks and uncertainties and establishing an effective

communication processes between the scenario communities and stakeholders.

Integrating global climate change analysis and assessment: Support development of robust

and inclusive global scenarios that are consistent with global assessments of climate change.

Nesting scenarios at different levels: Development of nested models/ scenarios to increase

linkages between top down scenario analysis to bottom up emissions analyses, and provide

independent scientific verification of analysis of emissions and sinks.

Linking scenarios and decision tools: Foster iterative dialogue between science and practice

and provide decision support tools and instruments that are nested in a consistent scenario

environment from global to local scales.

4. Improving Tools for Decision-Making

Two topics

-> Topic 1 : Societal Transformation in the Face of Climate Change

-> Topic 2 : Russian Arctic & Boreal Systems

Ireland participated in Topic 2:

Major response circa 100 proposals: two stage evaluation process.

Sustainable Transformations of Society

One successful participant; Dr Conor Murphy; NUIM

Austrian led Project looking at societal and institutional responses related to impacts and adaptation

to flooding.

The award is on a “Juste Retour” basis i.e. Ireland will fund the Irish research activity

JPI Climate 1st Call: 2013

Fighting and adapting to climate change - WP 2015 of SC5

In 2015 the main action will be

• The establishment of a very large and ambitious ERANET in support of

the Climate JPI actions on climate services,

• Designed to complement to other actions launched at EU level in 2014

and that will follow in the years 2016-17.

• This will be accompanied by a coordination action on modelling and

climate services.

Research and innovation action will also

• Tackle the issue of air quality in cities, bridging the human health and

climate change needs, and contributing to increasing the compliance to the

EU air quality legislation

Societal Challenge 5 (SC5): Climate

action, environment, resource efficiency

and raw materials

TOPICS ACTION /

EVALUATION

TYPE

BUDGET

2015

(€MIO)

SC5 CALL: Growing a Low Carbon, Resource Efficient Economy with a Sustainable Supply of Raw Materials

SC5-2. ERA for Climate Services ERA-NET 1-stage 25

Climate Services for Europe and globally: SC5-4. Improving the air quality and reducing the carbon footprint of European cities

R&I ACTION 2-stage

15

SC5-5. Coordinating and supporting R&I for climate action a) Earth system modelling and climate services

CSA 1-stage (*)

(*) part of a larger budget envelope; the budget for each action is not

specified

Societal Challenge 5 (SC5): Climate

action, environment, resource efficiency

and raw materials

TOPICS ACTION /

EVALUATION

TYPE

BUDGET

2015

(€MIO)

FOCUS AREA: DISASTER-RESILIENCE

DRS-9-2015 Disaster Resilience & Climate Change topic 1: Science and innovation for adaptation to climate change: from assessing costs, risks and opportunities to demonstration of options and practices. Innovation Actions [2015]

Innovation Action

1-stage 15

Societal Challenge 5 (SC5): Climate

action, environment, resource efficiency

and raw materials

TOPICS ACTION /

EVALUATION

TYPE

BUDGET

2015

(€MIO)

Call WATER INNOVATION Boosting its value for Europe

WATER 2. Integrated approaches to water and climate change b) Integrated approaches to food security, low-carbon energy, sustainable water management and climate change mitigation

R&I ACTION 2-stage 15

Societal Challenge 5 (SC5): Climate

action, environment, resource efficiency

and raw materials

Climate service development:

• Develop the market for climate services in support to adaptation and

mitigation decisions, multiplicity of users, from governments to

business.

Decarbonisation:

• A cost effective 2°C trajectory, policies and technologies and their

benefits/consequences for societies, economies and ecosystems

Large scale impacts

• Large scale impacts e.g. loss of Ice sheets, changes to MOC/Gulf

stream

Possible next steps

EPA Contributions and Support

Vision: GHG neutral and climate resilient Ireland by 2050

Goal: Ireland a centre for key research and analysis based on location, scale

and geography

Climate services:

• Capacity development in research community

• Engagement with JPI Climate

• National co-ordination

Decarbonisation:

• Advancing energy modelling (with SEAI) IrishTime (European model)

• Land use analysis: observations and systems models (ICOS)

• Technologies analysis (Climate KIC)

Support: Identify expertise to support projects in meeting 35% for climate

Ireland Climate services ecosystem

High end comp

Big data /high end computing

Impact s models

Risk and vulnerability analysis

Ocean

Hydrology

Coastal/Marine

Agriculture and land

Variability and extremes

Biodiversity and ecosystems

Ireland Climate Information Platform (ICIP)

Local

Authorities+

Sectors

Business

NGOs

Public

National Funding

EPA,OPW, Dept of Agriculture, SFI

H2020

JPI climate

M/I EPA

/ M/E

OPW

other

Research

groups Models

Need to urgently reverse the current CO2

trend

And resolve the methane challenge

http://www.jpi-climate.eu/home

for further information email:

climateresearch@epa.ie

Thank you