Journalism in a diverse, MMP democracy – help or hindrance?

JEANZ Annual Conference 2004

Peter Northcote

Manager Communications

New Zealand’s electoral framework and processes are widely used, understood, trusted and valued

Used - people participate broadly in politics and specifically in elections, as voters, candidates and members of political parties

Understood – people know how all aspects of the electoral processes and framework work and so can, for instance: cast an effective as well as a valid vote; register a party; or fulfil their obligations as a candidate or party official

Trusted – people are confident that the electoral framework is working as it is meant to and provides a fair way of allowing the people to choose their representatives

Valued – people attach importance to a democratic system in general and the particular framework and processes used in New Zealand. People respect the democratic rules and treasure a democratic society

People – all people in New Zealand, recognising diversity of current political engagement which encompasses interest, awareness, knowledge and participation. Also recognising that people differ in their political interest and needs and in the ways in which they take in and use information

Agenda

Diversity in the electorate Political engagement Trends in political reportage Information needs for effective MMP voting Challenges for journalism education Offers of continuing involvement

Challenges of growing electoral diversity

Since 2002: 180k have turned 18, 150k immigrated 2001 to 2006: Pakeha fall 79 to 76%, Maori steady

15%, Pacific steady 7%, Asian increase 7% to 10% Visibility and impact depends on regional population

shifts – some quite dramatic Maori younger, over-represented without direct vote

Engagement, efficacy and falling social capital

74% of 18-24 year olds enrolled vs 95% for 25 years+ Total enrolment (June 2004) 95% est. voting age pop 55% of Maori on Maori roll, now first roll of choice

Turnout in general and Maori electorates - % of enrolled

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20021999199619931990

All seats

Maori seats

NZ general elections turnout %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1946 1949 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Efficacy, Engagement, Social Capital

Efficacy – people’s belief in their own ability to know what is going on, be heard, and make a difference politically

Engagement – things like taking in the news, belonging to a party, enrolling or voting

Social Capital – measure of social and cultural factors … connectiveness represented by networks, norms and trust that promote civic engagement

Media Trends - Politics

Growing ‘qual-pop’ journalism, growing tabloid bias Media economics encourage audience maximisation

and search for economies of scale Topics that divide marginalised in favour of human

interest stories exaggerating commonality of experience

Social conflict attributed to bad individuals, not class, economic circumstance, or system inequities

Media Trends – Election 2002

TV dominated by campaign strategy, “horse race”, polls

Print coverage (NZH, DomPost, ODT) 28.2% substance issues, 6.8% polls, 67.7% other “game” stories; substance 11 of 67 front page stories; leaders focus of 32%

Risks of electoral non-engagement

Lack of political attention Mis-blaming by electorate Reinforcing futile behaviour Unbalanced “temperature taking” Legitimate protest Democracy threatening action Risks for media

MMP dimension to election coverage

“Polls predict Maori party overhang”

Sunday Star-Times poll 28/11/04

Labour Party 48.0

National Party 34.0

NZ First 5.0

Green Party 5.0

UNITED FUTURE 4.0

Maori Party 1.0

Progressive 0.5

MMP dimension to election coverage

Assuming only parties with over 5% win seats

Party name

Party

Votes

won

Party seat

entitlement

No. of

electorate

seats

won

No. of

list MPs

Total

MPs

% of

MPs

Green Party 5.00% 7 0 7 7 5.83%

Labour Party 48.00% 62 0 62 62 51.67%

National Party 34.00% 44 0 44 44 36.67%

NZ First 5.00% 7 0 7 7 5.83%

Totals 92.00% 120 0 120 120 100.00%

MMP dimension to election coverage

Because parties below the 5% threshold do not gain seats, the ‘wasted vote’ typical of the MMP elections means Labour probably has enough support to go it alone.

MMP dimension to election coverage

Assuming Jim Anderton and Tariana Turia and Peter Dunne and Rodney Hide win their electorate

Party name

Party

Votes

won

Party seat

entitlement

No. of

electorate

seats

won

No. of

list MPs

Total

MPs

% of

MPs

ACT New Zealand 2.00% 2 1 1 2 1.67%

Green Party 5.00% 6 0 6 6 5.00%

Labour Party 48.00% 58 0 58 58 48.33%

Maori Party 1.00% 1 1 0 1 0.83%

National Party 34.00% 41 0 41 41 34.17%

NZ First 5.00% 6 0 6 6 5.00%

Progressive 0.50% 1 1 0 1 0.83%

UNITED FUTURE 4.00% 5 1 4 5 4.17%

Totals 99.50% 120 4 116 120 100.00%

MMP dimension to election coverage

“Epsom key to Act’s future”

etc

MMP dimension to election coverage

Assuming Jim Anderton and Tariana Turia and Peter Dunne and Rodney Hide win their

electorate plus 4 other Māori party electorate wins

Party name

Party

Votes

won

Party seat

entitlement

No. of

electorate

seats

won

No.

of

list

MPs

Total

MPs

% of

MPs

ACT New

Zealand 2.00% 2 1 1 2 1.61%

Green Party 5.00% 6 0 6 6 4.84%

Labour Party 48.00% 58 0 58 58 46.77%

Maori Party 1.00% 1 5 0 5 * 4.03%

National Party 34.00% 41 0 41 41 33.06%

NZ First 5.00% 6 0 6 6 4.84%

Progressive 0.50% 1 1 0 1 0.81%

UNITED

FUTURE 4.00% 5 1 4 5 4.03%

Totals 99.50% 120 8 116 124 100.00%

MMP dimension to election coverage

“Party list ‘reflecting NZ’ anything but”

“Political fundamentalism or electoral pragmatism?”

“Parties’ Policy Positions Explained”

A role for Journalism education?

Critical knowledge of how MMP works Roles and relationships of different elements of NZ’s

constitution and system of government How politics is factor in all our lives, and the

opportunities we have to engage Self-awareness of media, newsmakers and market

A role for Journalism education?

So better prepared:– Set media agenda– Know the questions to ask– Engage different audiences with new information

We’re here and willing to help

Journalism in a diverse, MMP democracy – help or hindrance?

JEANZ Annual Conference 2004

Peter Northcote

Manager Communications