Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research EconomistSouth Carolina Demographic Profile Source: American...

JosephVonNessen,Ph.D.ResearchEconomistDecember8,2016

[email protected]

Economic growth leveling off

A tighter labor market

Strong housing demand

1

2

3

South Carolina Employment Growth

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, NSA

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Jan.'11 Jul.'11 Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16

SlowerGlobal

Growth/App.Dollar

DeclinesinDemandforExports

DeclinesinManufacturing

(Trans.Equipment)

DeclinesinTransportation/

Trucking

Ripple Effects

China/U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate

Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16

S.C. Export Volume (TEUs)

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014 2016/2015

11.4%

6.1%

8.0%

-0.1%

Source:SouthCarolinaPortsAuthority;August2016

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Trans.&Util Manufacturing

5.3%

2.5%2.0% 1.9%

2015/2014 2016/2015

S.C. Employment Growth: By Industry


S.C. Employment Growth: Trans. Equip. Manuf.

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%

Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16


2016 South Carolina Employment Growth Rate

Jan. 2016

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16

Construction Prof.&Bus.Svs. HeathCare&Soc.Asst.

S.C. Employment Growth: By Industry


2016 South Carolina Employment Growth Rate

S.C. Avg. Employment Growth: 2015-2016

Fairfield12.2%

Avg. Growth: +2.5%Source: BLS, Current Employment Statistics, NSA

2.8%

3.2%

2.6%1.2%

2.5%

2.0%2.5%

Outlook for 2017: Employment Growth

Source: Division of Research, Moore School of Business

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417

2.9%

2.4%

3.0%

2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%2.5% 2.6%

2.4% 2.5%

Historical Forecast

A Tightening Labor Market

Unemployment Rates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; SA LAUS, CES

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

SC US

SC: 4.7%

US: 4.6%

4.4%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%Jan-09

Jun-09

Nov-09

Apr-1

0

Sep-10

Feb-11

Jul-1

1

Dec-11

May-12

Oct-12

Mar-13

Aug-13

Jan-14

Jun-14

Nov-14

Apr-1

5

Sep-15

Feb-16

Jul-1

6

S.C. Average Hourly Earnings (Total: Private)


S.C. Average Hourly Earnings (Total: Private)Region Oct.2015 Oct.2016 %Change

Charleston $23.01 $24.39 +6.0%Columbia $22.58 $22.41 -0.8%Greenville $21.09 $21.80 +3.4%

MyrtleBeach $18.86 $19.89 +5.5%

Spartanburg $20.60 $21.22 +3.0%

StateTotal $21.53 $22.47 +4.4%


Outlook for 2017: Total Personal Income Growth


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417

5.2% 5.1%5.6%

4.9% 4.9%4.3%

3.7%

5.1%4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7%

Historical Forecast

U.S. Skills Gap Misery Index

0

50

100

150

200De

c-00

Sep-01

Jun-02

Mar-03

Dec-03

Sep-04

Jun-05

Mar-06

Dec-06

Sep-07

Jun-08

Mar-09

Dec-09

Sep-10

Jun-11

Mar-12

Dec-12

Sep-13

Jun-14

Mar-15

Dec-15

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; SA LAUS, JOLTS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%

2007-2010 2011-2016

S.C.UnemploymentRate

The Beveridge Curve

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; SA LAUS, JOLTS

U.S.Jo

bOpe

ningsR

ate

South Carolina Demographic Profile

Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2010-2014 (Ages 25-65)

54.5%45.5%

<Associate's Associate'sorHigher

Movers LTM Non-Movers

64.8%

35.2%

<Associate's Associate'sorHigher

MoverLTM Non-MoverManagement 8.1% 7.7%Engineering 2.1% 1.5%Military 8.9% 0.4%

Office 11.6% 13.2%Construction 4.0% 5.3%Production 4.2% 8.5%

Transportation 5.3% 6.4%

S.C. Pct. Employed by Selected Occupations

Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2010-2014

South Carolina Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Initial UI Claims, 12-week moving average

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000

3/18

/00

3/18

/01

3/18

/02

3/18

/03

3/18

/04

3/18

/05

3/18

/06

3/18

/07

3/18

/08

3/18

/09

3/18

/10

3/18

/11

3/18

/12

3/18

/13

3/18

/14

3/18

/15

3/18

/16

Outlook for 2017: Unemployment Rate


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417

6.5%6.1%

5.6% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6%5.1%

4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5%

Historical Forecast

Strong Housing Demand

Construction is a Standout

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

SouthCarolina

Charleston

MyrtleBeach

2.1%

9.8%

12.3%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,CESNSA

Construction Emp. Growth vs. S.C. Average

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,CESNSA

-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%

Jan.'11 Jul.'11 Jan.'12 Jul.'12 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16

SouthCarolina Construction

S.C. Regional Competitiveness by IndustryPct. Point Difference Between National Industry Growth and S.C. Industry Growth


-2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

ConstructionManufacturingDurableGoods

NonDurableGoodsWholesaleTrade

RetailTradeTrans.&UtilInformation

FinancialActiv.Prof.&Bus.

Health&Soc.Assist.Leisure&Hosp.

Ongoing Stimulus Effects

(1) 2015 Flood

(2) Hurricane Matthew

South Carolina’s Economy on Solid Footing for 2017October2016StateLeadingIndices

Source:FederalReserveBankofPhiladelphia

[email protected]

Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research EconomistSouth Carolina Demographic Profile Source: American...

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