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Transcript of Joseph Gilliam
a
A View of the Public Markets & Exit TrendsJoe Gilliam, Managing DirectorHealthcare Investment Banking
J.P. Morgan
This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any J.P. Morgan entity to underwrite, subscribe for or place any securities or to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by J.P. Morgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be disclosed or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of J.P. Morgan. Companies and individuals named are for illustrative purposes only. This information should be treated confidentially.
IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters included herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone not affiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties.
4
Equity market overview
Fund flows including ETF ($bn)
S&P sector performance 2015YTD Market volatility 2015YTD
Q3’15 corporate earnings
12.8% 8.1%
4.7% 1.0%
(0.2%)(2.0%)
(3.7%)(6.8%)
(10.8%)(12.3%)
(14.3%)2.0%
Consumer Disc.Info. Technology
HealthcareConsumer Staples
FinancialsIndustrials
TelecomMaterials
UtilitiesEnergy
TransportationS&P 500 5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan-15 Mar-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Nov-15
VIX Volatility Index
Max 40.7 Aug 24
Min 12.0 Jul 17
YTD avg. 16.7
Last 14.7 Nov 6
Source: FactSet, Lipper, Bloomberg as of 11/06/15
$9
$58
$3
($56)($51)
($3)
Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15
Historical fund flows ($bn)2008-2012 ($140)2013 $133 2014 $129 2015YTD ($107)Avg. of last 4 weeks ($1)
37%
16%
47%
71%
7%
22%
Above Meet Below
Revenue EPSS&P 500 companies reported: 440/500
12.8%
8.1%
4.7%
1.0%
(0.2%)
(2.0%)
(3.7%)
(6.8%)
(10.8%)
(12.3%)
(14.3%)
2.0%
Consumer Disc.
Info. Technology
Healthcare
Consumer Staples
Financials
Industrials
Telecom
Materials
Utilities
Energy
Transportation
S&P 500
S&P sector performance 2015YTD
Source: FactSet as of 11/06/15
5
Market volatility 2015YTD
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15
VIX Volatility Index
Max 40.7 Aug 24
Min 12.0 Jul 17
YTD avg. 16.7
Last 14.7 Nov 6
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg as of 11/06/15
6
$9
$58
$3
($56)($51)
($3)
Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15
Fund flows including ETF ($bn)
Source: Lipper as of 11/06/15
Historical fund flows ($bn)2008-2012 ($140)2013 $133 2014 $129 2015YTD ($107)Avg. of last 4 weeks ($1)
7
37%
16%
47%
71%
7%
22%
Above Meet Below
S&P 500 companies reported: 440/500
Revenue EPS
Q3’15 corporate earnings
Source: Bloomberg as of 11/06/15
8
7
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
1995 1999 2002 2005 2008 2012 2015(4.4%)
5.0%
8.3%
12.7%
4.5%
9.6%
Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 FY 2015FY 2016
Equity market outlook
Bulls
S&P 500 1-year forward P/E
16x
Positive outlook for U.S. labor & growth
Inflation remains modest
Fed stance remains accommodative
Corporate earnings growth persists
Volatility in the broader markets subsides
Potential Fed tightening first time in 10 years
Uncertainty in China market persists
Commodity market volatility
Global growth concerns
Geopolitical risks
Bears
J.P. Morgan forecasts a 2,150 S&P 500 year-end price target, 4% above current levelsSource: FactSet and Morgan Markets Note: EPS for S&P 500 calculated as the index weighted consensus estimate of EPS based on individual securities’ standard market convention for EPS (US GAAP or Adjusted)
S&P 500 consensus EPS estimates YoY% chg
8
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5-year stock price performance
113%
205%
Biotech and medtech trading performance
Source: FactSet as of 10/27/151 AMEX Biotechnology Index2 Medtech index consists of medical technology companies traded on North American exchanges with market capitalizations over $500mm
75%
Returns summary
5 yr 2 yr YTD
Medtech2
31%
Biotech1
63%
S&P 50017%
3%
4%
0%
9
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
225%
10/27/2013 3/22/2014 8/15/2014 1/8/2015 6/3/2015 10/27/2015
2 year performance of ophthalmic sector participants
Relative stock price performance
+88% +17% +63% +13% +40%
Ophth1
53%
S&P 50017%
Diversified / Ophth2
30%
Source: FactSet as of 10/27/151 Ophth index includes Aerie, Alimera, Avalanche, Cooper, Eleven, Glaukos, Inotek, Ocular, Ophthotech, QLT, Santen, Spark, STAAR and ThromboGenics2 Diversified / Ophth includes Abbott, Allergan, Bayer, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Shire and Valeant3 Return since June 2015 IPO
3
10
Medtech M&A activity has remained strong while biopharma M&A activity has picked up
M&A transactions
Source: Dealogic, EvaluatePharma, press releases, public filingsNote: Based on US targets only and excludes deals <$50mm
9
34 27 27 23 25 2817
21 18
36
4249 51
32 36
53 5245 46
50 46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Biopharma Medtech
2014 - 2015 ophthalmology M&A
July ‘15 $125mm + undisclosed contingent
August ‘15 $300mm
September ‘15 $300mm + undisclosed contingent
November ‘14 $66bn
11
Biopharma lead the IPO market resurgence …
IPO activity, 2005 – 2015 YTD
Source: Dealogic Note: Includes IPOs > $50mm
711 14
0 38
411
28
64
33
5 5 81 1
12 1 2
9 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Biopharma Medtech
$657 $389 $771 $2,699 $7,086 $4,106
$79 $285 $115 $224 $1,375 $788
Total proceeds raised, 2005 – 2015 YTD($mm)
$1,217
$199
$0
$51
$1,137
$1,259
$1,749
$665
$585
$429
12
… however recent healthcare IPOs have seen mixed pricing outcomes
Source: Dealogic, FactSet, Companing Filings for U.S. IPOs > $50mm
Pricing vs. filing range
50%40%
20%27%
60%
100%
67%
20%
80%
36%
33%
50%
33%
50%40% 36%
67%
50%40%
Above
Within
Below
44%
30%
40%
35%
16%
35%
2014 2015
13
Ophthalmology IPO activity
2005 2007 2009 2013 2015
(withdrawn) (withdrawn)
09/24/13$192 / $687
10/25/13$67 / $228
04/21/10$72 / $342
07/06/06€35 / €103
2011
77 74 93
931
65 50 3983
157118
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
Healthcare IPOs priced / year (2005 to present)1
Source: Dealogic, FactSet, Company filings1 Includes global healthcare IPOs >$15mm
Date priced / Size / Market value at IPO (in $ millions):
07/24/14$75 / $267
07/30/14$117 / $363
02/05/14$57 / $154
06/24/15$124 / $563
01/29/15$185 / $540
02/17/15$40 / $95
14
Key success factors observed in recent lifesciences IPOs
Valuable lead product, sufficiently de-risked with significant market opportunity and ownership retained
Products which also address cost to the system vs. efficacy
Strong management teams led by CEOs with prior public market success
Crossover investors to provide validation as well as support on IPO and in aftermarket
Near-term data / strategic catalysts to answer the “why buy now” question
Extensive interaction with public investors 6 months to 1 year before IPO org meeting
Critical to price appropriately for existing market to ensure strong deal and aftermarket performance (prudent / attractive cover valuation range)
Potential for competitive M&A takeout