Jon Peddie Research - Is the discrete GPU a dinosaur? 1.
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Transcript of Jon Peddie Research - Is the discrete GPU a dinosaur? 1.
Jon
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DYNAMICS IN GPU MARKET
- Is the discrete GPU a dinosaur?
1
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Jon Peddie ResearchFocus and emphasis on Digital Technology, Multi Media, and
Graphics
Consulting and market research - Advisor to industry leaders and
financiers
Bi-weekly report, various Digital Technology Market Studies
Product testing and benchmarking
• The Business of Multimedia and Graphics
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Agenda – What the Roadmaps Say
The end of the IGP
The introduction of the EPG & HPU
The end of the discrete GPU?
The big future for discrete GPUs
Offsetting factors
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h MARKET DYNAMICS
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Strong Market Good Growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
PCs (M units)
Graphics (M units)
DJIA
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PC Platforms
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150
50
100
150
200
250
300
350 Desktop vs. Notebook PC growth
Desktop PCs
Notebook PCs
M units
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Graphics Chips
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 Desktop vs. Notebook GPU growth
Total graphics semiconductors
Desktop
Notebook
M units
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h THE IGPIntegrated Graphics Processor
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GPU Segments PC
Desktop
Discrete
IGP
Notebook
Discrete
IGP
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IntelProcessor
All that other stuff:USB, CD\DVD, HDD, audio, PCI, parallel serial, 1394, keyboard, IR, etc.
Integrated Graphics Processor ( IGP)
Unified Memory architecture (UMA)
The interface: PCI Express
System memoryHigh-speed
SDRAMFSB
VGA, DVI,
Display Port
South Bridge
GraphicsProcessorUnit GPU)
NorthBridge
Memory controlle
r
Basic Intel PC Architecture
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IGP Shipments
Q1
'04
Q3
'04
Q1
'05
Q3
'05
Q1
'06
Q3
'06
Q1
'07
Q3
'07
Q1
'08
Q3
'08
Q1
'09
Q3
'09
Q1
'10
Q3
'10
Q1
'11
Q3
'11
Q1
'12
Q3
'12
Q1
'13
Q3
'13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Total DT & NB IGP
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h THE END OF THE IGP
Don’t be sad – it’ll be OK
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INTRODUCTION OF THE EPG & HPUThe Integrated Processor Graphics chip
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First Generation
The first versions of this new design can be found in Intel’s Clarksdale i5 processor, a four-core CPU with an IGP in a multichip package.
Clarksdale i5 First EPG
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Introducing the EPG
The Integrated PROCESSOR Graphics Clarksdale’s graphics are UMA With the memory controller embedded within the
CPU there is a tighter coupling and a higher bandwidth capability.
Thus Clarksdale has good performance at nominal screen resolutions (i.e., 1280 x 1024.)
Ivy Bridge will be much better, Haswell even more
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Performance of EPG
Intel i5 661
AMD 945+890GX
Intel QuardCore ...
AMD 4850e+780GX
Win
dow
7 6
4 bi
tVi
sta
32 b
it
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
4734
2690
1408
1045
Futuremark Vantage* Higher is better
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Desktop EPG Replaces IGP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Desktop EPG, CAGR 2010-2016: 37.1%
0 0 18.664 61.3504
104.279861695564
109.451772559379
114.346657140848
117.399460571382
Desktop HPU, CAGR 2010-2016: 184.8%
0 0 0.065 4.86185
14.0740386170308
22.5636381368392
30.0794511788476
32.811894294
305
Desktop IGP, CAGR 2010-2016: -100.0%
139.612978794954
150.5466
133.445161290323
92.012364
27.3543772365587
3.4271931859
797
0.043262405265295
0
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Desktop Embedded/Integrated Components (M units)
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Notebook EPG Replaces IGP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note-book EPG, CAGR 2010-2016: 19.6%
0 0 94.605 159.530279423715
171.966897026491
190.519472364182
208.513809595033
241.922012802947
Note-book HPU, CAGR 2010-2016: 74.3%
0 0 4.763 32.4426685487078
48.5859182320206
61.813922535105
85.393374866763
107.627454520818
Note-book IGP, CAGR 2010-2016: -100.0%
111.689704454818
144.1861 78.945 8.602421 3.45640146575763
0.83094288634354
9
0 0
2575
125175225275325375
Notebook Embedded/Integrated Components (M units)
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PC Segments
Desktop Notebook
Workstation (Professional)
Mainstream(Consumer & Enterprise)
Performance(Multimedia Consumer)
Enthusiast(Gamer)
Value & Nettop(Enterprise & Consumer)
Enthusiast/Workstation(Gamer/Professional)
Ultrathin(Consumer)
Thin & Light(Consumer & Enterprise)
Desktop Replacement(Enterprise & Consumer)
Netbook(Consumer)
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PC Segments Graphics
DesktopNotebook
Workstation (Professional)
Mainstream(Consumer & Enterprise)
Performance(Multimedia Consumer)
Enthusiast(Gamer)
Value & Nettop(Enterprise & Consumer)
Enthusiast/Workstation(Gamer/Professional)
Ultrathin(Consumer)
Thin & Light(Consumer & Enterprise)
Desktop Replacement(Enterprise & Consumer)
Netbook(Consumer)
I G P
Two or more GPUs
Discrete GPU
I G P
Discrete GPU
CPU with embedded GPU
Discrete GPUs
CPU with embedded GPU
Discrete GPUs
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First Fully Integrated EPG
2H’10 AMD shipped samples of its Fusion Llano processor to its OEMs.
A fully integrated HPU fabricated in a 32nm process
It was a 4 core CPU with a 32 or greater core GPU
First GPU to be built in SOI.
ATI has demonstrated transistor packing getting 1,600 cores in a 334mm2 die
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Llano Block Diagram
Core 1 Core 2 Core 3 Core 4
512kb L2Cache
512kb L2Cache
512kb L2Cache
512kb L2Cache
1024kb L2Cache
6MB L3 Cache
System Request Interface
Crossbar Switch
DDR3 MC HyperTransport I/O
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Performance of GPUs
AMD 945+890GX
Intel i5 661
AMD HD5450
AMD Llano
Nvidia GTX480
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Relative performance of GPUsJon Peddie Research
* Higher is better
Speculated
EPGs will be a real inflection point
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An Inflection Point
The EPG is an inflection point One that has been speculated, and
worried about for years – has LSI integration gotten to the point that the
discrete GPU will be relegated to a small and declining portion of the market?
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Self Perpetuating
If that happens, where will the R&D budget come from to develop the next generation of GPUs?
The design cycle and cost for a modern GPU is incredible compared to just 10 years ago.
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Development Costs
To get the ROI for that kind of investment the GPU suppliers have to sell not only high-end chips but also midrange derivative versions.
If, however, the midrange is satisfied by the EPG based processors, the ROI will take longer and may never be realized due to obsolesce of functionality.
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Time and Cost to Develop
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
6 8 10 12 14 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 43 47 51 56 61 65 68
Time to develolp (mo)Cost to de-velop($M)
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Costs over time
The “watershed” concept
The average life cycle of a GPU roughly follows the introduction of versions of the Direct X API.
DirectX Version
Windows Version
Release Date
DirectX 1.0 Windows 3.1 Sept. 1995
DirectX 2.0 95 and NT 4.0 Jun. 1996
DirectX 3.0 NT 4.0 SP3 Sept. 1996
DirectX 4.0 n/a Never released
DirectX 5.0 98 Jul. 1997 Riva 128 3D Rage Pro
DirectX 6.098 SE and ME
Aug. 1998 Riva TNT Rage 128 GL
DirectX 7.0 2000 Sept. 1999 GF 256 Radeon
DirectX 8.0 2000 Nov. 2000 GF 2 Ultra
DirectX 8.1 XP Nov. 2001 Radeon 8500
DirectX 9.0 XP Dec. 2002 GF FX 5800 Radeon 9700 Pro
DirectX 9.0a XP Mar. 2003
DirectX 9.0b XP Aug. 2003 Radeon X800
DirectX 9.0c XP Aug. 2004 GF 6800
DirectX 9.0c XP Aug. 2005 GF 7800 Radeon x1300-1900
DirectX 10 Vista Nov. 2006 GF8800
DirectX 10.1 Vista SP1 Nov. 2007 Radeon HD 2900
DirectX 10.1 Vista SP1 Feb. 2008 GTX 200 Radeon HD 4800
DirectX 11 Windows 7 Oct. 2009 Radeon HD 5800
DirectX 11 Windows 7 Oct. 2010 GTX 480
DirectX 11.1 Windows 7 Mar 2012 GTX 680 Radeon 7970
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Other Concerns
As the IGP gained unit market share the investors and press extrapolated the line to predict when all PCs would be IGP based.
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IGP and GPU Shipments
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dis-crete GPU, CAGR 2010-2015: 11.81%
96.5072218578678
88.622963
81.500354
110.465035005665
111.262723837004
129.152859941134
138.239754749464
142.404417012398
IGP, CAGR 2010-2015: -100%
251.302683249771
294.7327 212.390161290323
100.614785
30.8107787023163
4.25813607232324
0.04326240526529
5
0
HPU & EPG, CAGR 2010-2015: 33.45%
0 0 118.097 258.185197972422
338.906715571106
384.348805595505
438.333292781492
499.760822189452
50150250350450550650
Discrete and Integrated Graphics (M Units WW)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total dGPU less En-ter-prise, CAGR 2010-2015: 12.41%
88.1590844978678
81.687759
71.92439 100.256555959072
100.126328606769
116.67260243515
125.167055215463
129.075289246633
Func-tional IGP, CAGR 2010-2015: -100%
92.8109155021322
104.452241
100.873927
41.10925522986
15.9292881152449
0 0 0
Func-tional EPG & HPU, CAGR 2010-2015: 36.90%
0 0 43.231683
95.9215955363399
143.363593037204
166.956408611343
183.983388706431
207.899037379908
5%
25%
45%
65%
85%
Market share of dGPUs in Consumer & SMB PCs
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Beware of Soothsayers
It’s a silly model and most forecasters knew it
The “smart” ones reasoned that Moore’s law would indeed compensate for performance and that functional integration was inevitable and therefore the discrete GPU was a Dodo.
Some of them made bets on the shares of the GPU suppliers accordingly, and even used the recession to “prove” they were right.
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Market Share Issues
If GPU shipments stay flat, and EPGs grow at the rate of the PC market, GPU unit market share will shrink.
And, depending upon GPU ASP and how the ASP for the EPG is calculated, the GPU market value may shrink.
That will make investors very nervous.
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h OFFSETTING FACTORS
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You can’t build a blivet
There is a limit as to how many transistors
that can be put into a die There are power envelope limits, package, yield, and heat dissipation limits.
You can’t take a 250 watt, 3.6 billion transistor, 1536 core GK104 and cram it in with a 77 watt 1.4 billion transistor Intel Ivy Bridge Core i7 processor
Limitations of EPG
A blivet is ten pounds of stuff in a five pound bag
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Software
Software doesn’t stand still If application development stopped Dec
2009 EPG processors would satisfy the needs of 95% of the users.
Investors and writers have long seen that as the ultimate conclusion, even before EPGs
It wrong!
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Software Market Issues
Hardware has leapt ahead of software Software development is just as time and
money consuming as chip design. An AAA first-person shooter (FSP) game
takes 3-5 years and $5 to $30 million dollars to produce now
It’s a risky “hits-based” business Only a few publishers and studios in the
market so the output capacity of the industry is limited.
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Software Lag
Software will continue to improve And use the cycles available to it And stay almost a generation
behind HW Occasionally some developers will be in, or
almost in sync with the hardware developments.
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Chicken vs. Egg
The chicken and egg dilemma No one wants to develop for a small
installed HW base Some ISVs hold back a new release
until either the installed base builds up or a competitor announces a new release.
This is extremely frustrating for the hardware suppliers.
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Heterogeneous compute
It’s here (at last)
Support in three OS This is a significant breakthrough in
computer science It will have far reaching, long term, and
astounding influence on the world. The economy of scale puts a super
computer in the hands of everyone for $5,000 or less.
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Could this be the Future?
CPU
Hi speed linksto PCIeBridge
Graphics memoryHigh-speed
DDRAM
South Bridge
GraphicsProcessor
(GPU)
SystemDRAM
Ray TracingProcessor
(RTP)
NICProcessor
(FPG)
AudioProcessor
(DSP)
LarrabeeCo-processor
Or is the third processor like the third rail?
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More FLOPS Less $
Cost per FLOP, the GPU used as a vector processor most economical computing element.
The GPU can be used in three major application areas:
scientific, professional/commercial, and consumer.
Most applications will scale by the number of GPU cores available.
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Destroying things – Investment Protection
A discrete-based GPU AIB, adds extraordinary impact to a game. It also offers investment protection to the buyer in that it gives added life to his or her purchase.
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South Bridge
System memoryHigh-speed
SDRAM
High-speedLinks
Memory
Bus
Processor
GPU
Discrete GPU
Graphics memoryHigh-speed
DDRAMFrame buffer
Hybrid PC Architecture
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Scalable Graphics
SLI – 2 to 3 AIBs Crossfire – 2 to 4 AIBs Lucid Logix – 2 to 4 AIBs - mixed
1 2 3 4100
150
200
250
300
Estimated scaling
ATINvidiaLucid Logix
Multiple AIBs for:• More performance• Physics•Ray tracing• Investment protection
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The more you can see …The more you can do - Peddie’s 2nd law
In Computer Graphics too much is not enough - Peddie’s 1st law
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The big future for discrete GPUs
GPUs sell 1.35 to PCs That ratio will increase due to:
GPU compute Hybrid Scaling
The EPG class products will kill midrange GPUs
They can’t come close the high-end
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The Market Shift to EPG
Q1'08
Q2'08
Q3'08
Q4'08
Q1'09
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q1'12
Q2'12
Q3'12
Q4'12
Q1'13
Q2'13
Q3'13
Q4'13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 Total Graphics (M units) by QtrJon Peddie Research
Total DT & NB Discret Total DT & NB IGP
Discrete GPUs