JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2008 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Robert (Bob) Falvey Director, JTWC 63 rd...
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JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2008 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Robert (Bob) Falvey Director , JTWC 63 rd INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 2-5 MARCH 2009 ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA Typhoon Sinlaku
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JTWC AOR CPHC New Delhi Reunion Tokyo Australia Fiji NHC 33% 8% 11% 13% 7% 17%
Transcript of JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2008 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Robert (Bob) Falvey Director, JTWC 63 rd...
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2008 YEAR IN REVIEW
Mr. Robert (Bob) FalveyDirector , JTWC
63rd INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE2-5 MARCH 2009
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA
Typhoon Sinlaku
MISSION
Provide tropical cyclone analysis, forecast and warning support for Department of
Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established
by Commander, United States Pacific Command.
JTWC AOR
CPHCNew Delhi
Reunion
Tokyo
Australia Fiji
NHC33%
8%
11%13%
7%
17%
4
TC ACTIVITY
NW PacificNW Pacific 2004: 2004: 3232 2005: 252005: 25 2006: 262006: 26 2007: 272007: 27 2008: 272008: 27
25 Yr avg: 3125 Yr avg: 31
S Indian Ocean &Australia Region 2004: 25 2005: 20 2006: 19 2007: 16 2008: 21 25 Yr avg: 23
South Pacific 2004: 2 2005: 6 2006: 4 2007: 8 2008: 825 Yr avg: 6
C PacificC Pacific 2004: 22004: 2 2005: 12005: 1 2006: 42006: 4 2007: 22007: 2 2008: 12008: 1 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5
NE PacificNE Pacific 2004: 2004: 1616 2005: 162005: 16 2006: 212006: 21 2007: 152007: 15 2008: 182008: 1825 Yr avg: 1925 Yr avg: 19
Arabian Sea &Arabian Sea &Bay of BengalBay of Bengal 2004:2004: 5 5 2005: 72005: 7 2006: 52006: 5 2007: 62007: 6 2008: 72008: 7 25 Yr avg: 525 Yr avg: 5
2008 Station Fixes (All Agencies)
73%
6%
16%
1% 2%
1%0% 0% 1%
0%
0%
PGTW RJTD KNES PHFO FMEE NFFN ABRF ADRM APRF DEMS NZKL
SATELLITE RECONFIXES BY AGENCY
113
343
86
94
41
93
42
9199
1951
744
(Total: 12,581)
SATELLITE RECONFIXES BY JTWC
(Total: 9,199)2008 All Sensor Fixes (PGTW Only)
27%
16%
1%19%
9%
7%
4%
5%
8%3% 0%
0%
MTSAT MET7 GOES11 FY AMSU SSMI MMHS AMSR TRMM
SSMIS WIND QSCT WSCT ASCT DMSP NOAA MODIS
34%
17%12%
7%
9%
16%
5%
AMSUSSMIMMHSAMSRTRMMSSMISWIND
SATELLITE RECON MICROWAVE FIXES BY JTWC
Total Microwave Fixes: 4,639 (>50% of total)
644
1716
869
781284
453
364
2008 NORTH IO TRACKS
2008 S-HEMI TRACKS
2008 WESTPAC TRACKS
14 Tropical Storms11 Typhoons 2 Super Typhoons
2008 JTWC TRACK ERRORSALL BASINS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Tau
Erro
r (nm
)
WESTPACNIOSH
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Erro
r (nm
)
24 Hour 5 Year Ave
48 Hour 5 Year Ave
72 Hour 5 Year Ave
JTWC TRACK ERRORS(WESTPAC - 24-72 Hours)
24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr2004 69 121 1622005 63 104 1692006 64 106 1512007 61 100 1472008 66 120 198Goal 50 100 150
2008 WPAC ERRORSSTORM BY STORM
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Storm Number
Mea
n Er
ror (
nm)
24 Hour48 Hour72 Hour
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Nau
tical
Mile
s
96 Hour 5 Year Ave
120 Hour 5 Year Ave
JTWC TRACK ERRORS(WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours)
96 Hr 120 Hr2004 206 2752005 212 2632006 216 3092007 187 2142008 301 447Goal 200 250
2008 WPAC ERRORSSTORM BY STORM
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Storm Number
Mea
n Er
ror (
nm)
96 Hour120 Hour
2007 MODEL ERRORS(WESTPAC – Homogeneous)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Tau
Erro
r (nm
)
JTWCCONWGFSUMKOECMWFGFDNNGPS
(111) (13)(29)(54)(74)(85)(93)
2008 MODEL ERRORS(WESTPAC – Homogeneous)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Tau
Erro
r (nm
)
JTWCCONWGFSUMKOECMWFGFDNNGPS
(115) (13)(27)(48)(76)(91)(101)
MODEL ERRORSTyphoon FengShen (7W)
Typhoon FengShen (7W)MODEL ERRORS
Typhoon FengShen (7W)MODEL ERRORS
10% of the JTWC 120 hour track error due to 07W
2007- 2008 ERROR DELTA(WESTPAC – Homogeneous)
Homogeneous Skill Change (2007-2008)
-450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Tau
Erro
r (nm
)
JTWCCONWGFSUKMOECMWFGFDNNGPS
Mean 1000mb WINDSJun-Nov 1950-2008
Well DefinedMonsoon Trough
2008 1000mb WINDSJun-Nov08
Lack of WesterliesN-S MonsoonTrough
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Erro
r (kt
s)
24 Hr48 Hr72 Hr96 Hr120 Hr
JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS(WESTPAC 24 - 120 Hours)
24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr2004 11 17 21 23 262005 12 18 24 25 252006 13 17 20 22 242007 13 18 20 24 262008 12 19 21 22 28
ITEMS OF INTEREST
• USAF Civilianization (Update)• MARK IVB DRO Continuation/Expansion• Fix Bulletin Changes (Unified DoD/NOAA format, MI
fixes included)• T-PARC / TCS-08 – Data used in forecasts (Sinlaku)• JMA GSM out to 132 Hrs / Forecasts to 120 Hrs• ECMWF Fields • METSAT Conference / Tropical Cyclone Conference
/ JTWC 50th Anniversary– METSAT: 27-28 Apr– JTWC 50th Anniversary: 29 Apr 1000 HST– TCC: 29 Apr – 1 May
Contact Info
• Director: robert.falvey@navy.(smil).mil
COM: (808) 474-5301DSN: (315) 474-5301
• JT Ops Officer (JTOPS):michael.vancas@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 471-4597DSN: (315) 471-4597
QUESTIONS
