Joint Structure Plan housing figures
description
Transcript of Joint Structure Plan housing figures
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Projecting transient populations - pragmatism or technical correctness?
BSPS Conference Sep 2004
Richard Cooper Research teamNottinghamshire County Council
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Joint Structure Plan housing figures
• Regional Planning Guidance (1996-based) – 49,000 dwellings 2001-21
• Joint Structure plan accepts total• Distribution to sub-areas• South Nottinghamshire = 37,000• Nottingham City – supply of 18,500
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Population projections for Nottingham City
• Basis is a ‘set’ number of dwellings• Early projections were dwelling-led but –
– Migration levels varied widely– Migration-led projection needed– More robust output– More up-to-date information available
• City wanted age / gender projection
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Knowns and unknowns
• How many houses – but not types of house, household or occupants
• Age/gender of residents and migrants – but not future migrants
• Characteristics of residents – but not how those may change
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Modelling the population
• Changing housing provision (e.g. more flats)• Assumptions that data in the model will still
pertain - – the migration profile remains the same– characteristics (fertility, household
generation, etc.) of population remain same for age, gender & relationship
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Nottingham City – 2001 Census
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Nottinghamshire (rest of Plan Area) – 2001 Census
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Age profile of some JSP districts
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Nottingham UA
Bassetlaw
Broxtowe
Plan Area
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Comparison of 2021 populations using/ not using a transient population: Nottingham City
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Comparison of 2021 populations using/ not using a transient population: Nottingham City
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Zero transient pop.
2001 Population
Comparison of 2021 populations using/ not using a transient population: Nottingham City
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NCC transient pop
2001 Population
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Nottingham city projection – no transient population
2001 2006 2011 2016
20-24 30,800 21,029 21,213 19,96825-29 20,400 29,710 19,974 20,14630-34 21,100 19,605 28,868 19,16935-39 19,900 20,538 19,052 28,27140-44 16,300 19,595 20,238 18,769
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Effects of ignoring the transient population
• Age structure would have many more adults 35-44, (and fewer 15-24)– ageing through fertile and household
creation ages• For a set number of dwellings (18,500)
– 8,000 fewer (30% less growth)• For a certain migration level
– 2,500 more dwellings
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But why is this a problem (to Notts!) ?
• Decision to use Patient Register data– From ONS & used in mid-year estimates– More up-to-date– More complete than the Census (includes
students)– 3 years data - 1997-2000– More accurate?
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Comparison of 1997-2000 Patient Register and 1991 Census migration structure (M&F)
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ONS patient register97-00 (3 years)
1991 Census
Total net migration:1991 - -1,9002000 - -2,200
A problem ? (2)
3,000 more net in-migrants 15-19 – but are these all students?
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Comparison of gross migration: Patient Register & 1991 Census
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Gross each w ay f low s:Census: 28-30,000ONS PR: 17-19,000
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A problem ? (3)
• Transient population used where migration data does not handle flows adequately (1991 Census)
• If migration data complete there is no need for a transient population - in theory OK
• However, results did not show sensible outcome – it appeared that some student migrants were being excluded
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Determining a transient population• Needed a reality check• Thought that transient population in CPHM was
wrong for application to Patient Register migration• How do you decide on a transient population when
some information is missing?• What should the relevant (20-24) population be
doing?• It does not remain absolutely constant, even though
student numbers may do so – so how does it change?
• Look at births 20 years ago, not for absolute numbers – but for trends
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What the 20-24 year old projectionss should be showing
Year of births
20 to 24 years old in:
Births Difference from previous period (A)
1977-1981 2001 17,188 n/a1982-1986 2006 19,687 2,5001987-1991 2011 21,885 2,1981992-1996 2016 20,188 -1,697
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Changes to 20-24 yr old population 2001 - 2016
Original projection has no transient adjustment
May 2003 resulted from City suggestion in setting transient population
Mar 2004 accounts for latest information and migration-led projection
From birthsOriginal
projection May 2003 Pr. Mar 2004 Pr.2006 2,500 -9,771 229 8422011 2,198 184 184 1,0172016 -1,697 -1,245 -1,245 -2,006
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How does it compare? (1)
JSP DD projection - Nottingham
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How does it compare? (2)
ONS 96-based (trend) projection - Nottingham
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NB 1996 trend-based, so unusable for Structure Plan
Methodology incorporated separate student ‘adjustment’
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How does it compare? (2)CPHM (default) and JSP DD projections - Nottingham
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NCC DD proj
Main difference is higher 35-54 population in JSP
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