Joint Dynamic Engagement Model JDEM

14 August 2008Henry Neimeier

Joint Dynamic Engagement ModelJDEM

• Calculate the military impact of OWS options– Loss Exchange ratio– Casualties– Time to objective

• Real time execution on a PC with free Analytica player

• Efficient frontier order of alternative funding– When alternative life cycle cost module developed

JNO Dynamic Engagement Model (JDEM) Player Interface

• Buttons provide access to the model for users that have downloaded the free Analytica player from www.lumina.com

• Green: user Inputs

• Orange: MOE outputs

• Red: intermediate outputs

• Blue: Detail Model

– Grouped in module sections

Force Drawdown

Comm Network

Target Movement

MOEsTarget Class, Terrain, Weather

Air Layer

Scenario Options J DEM

K ill Thread Parameters

ISR

Weapons

ModelDetails

(personnel) :Initial Red Force Edit Table

Relative Weapon Effectiveness Edit Table

(Personnel) :Force Comparison Calc

Force Ratio Result

(time steps) :Time Enemy Ineffective Calc

Friendly Proportion Remain (Enemy Ineffective) Calc

(Proportion) :Engagement Efficiency Edit Table

(minutes) :Path Delay Result

Survivable Throughput Result

(probability) :Path Survival Result

(proportion) :Link Throughput Result

(seconds/link) :Service Time Edit Table

(minutes) :Revisit Result

(km2) :AOI Edit Table

ISR Platform Select Edit Table

ISR Parameters Edit Table

(m) :Target Size Edit Table

Summary Escape Calc

(minutes) :Enemy Response Time Edit Table

(km) :Move Dista… Edit Table

(km/hr) :Speed Edit Table

(minutes) :Pause Edit Table

Proportion Update 0.5

Expected Kills Per Sortie Edit Table

Loadout Edit Table

(hz) :Theater Aerial Layer BW Calc

Relay Planes Calc

Payload Lb HRs/AC $ Calc

(hz) :Channel BW Calc

(knots) :Speed Calc

(hours) :Endure Edit Table

(ft) :Relay Altitude Edit Table

(nmi) :Base Range Edit Table

(dollars) :Cost Edit TableSelect Coverage 1

Select Threat Level High Intensity

Pid 0.8188

Targets @ Risk Result

Support Traffic ER* Result

Select Alternative Edit Table

Range Band Prop… Edit Table

Select Link Upgrade Yes

(minutes) :Task ISR 1

(minutes) :Sense Edit Table

(minutes) :Processing Edit Table

(minutes) :Fuse & Integrate Edit Table

(minutes) :Plan & Deconflict Edit Table

(minutes) :Enemy Response Time Edit Table

Execute Priority 1

(probability) :Targets At Risk Result

Target Class Wt Edit Table

Initial Blue Force Edit Table

Relative Red ISR Effectiveness Edit Table

Ineffective Proportion 0.67

Nodes Edit Table

Priority Proportion Edit Table

Utilization Edit Table

Baulking Utilization 0.8

Setup Proportion 0.05

Select Sensor Processing Independent

Pclassify Result

(m) :Sensor Resolution Edit Table

(m) :Target Size Edit Table

Select ISR Path Direct route (minutes) :Execute Time Result

(minutes) :CAP Direct 1

CAP Edit Table

GPS Edit Table

Fastest Platform Result

Best Munition Result

(km) :Range Band Distance Edit Table

Range Band Proportion Edit Table

(km) :Standoff Or Cap 15

Platform Speed Edit Table

Terrain Proportion Edit Table

Pcflos Edit Table

Platform Coverage* Result

Remaining Comparison Result

Pk avg Result

Model Details (Module InfluenceDiagram & Module

Summary)Portfolio: Selects scenario options, calculates TLE, and sets uncertain input variable distributions.Target Movement: Calculates target escape probability from target movement statisticsWeapons: Assigns weapons to target classes to maximize effective kills persortie corrected for target location error TLE, survivable throughput, & escape probability. Calculates execute timeComm Net: Calculate path delay, path survival probability, and survivable throughput for specified network parameters and threat levelKill Thread Delay: Set thread task, sense, fuse, plan, execute times.Compare total time to enemy response time to determine targets at risk.ISR: Assigns ISR platforms to scenario, calculates revisit time, & probability of target classificationTerrain Weather: Calculates ISR coverage multiplier to correct for scenario weather and terrain masking.Radar Plots: Displays multi dimensional outputs in radar plot format

ForceDrawdown

indiciesfunctions

TargetMovement

ISR

Weapons

Kill ThreadDelay

Air Layer

Comm Net

Portfolio

TerrainWeather

Overview

Radar Plots

Force DrawdownModified Lanchester Equation

Relative WeaponEffectiveness

Red TargetsIDed

BlueEngagements/Time

Step

Redkills/Time

Step

ERFriendly

Casualties

Initial RedForce

Red Force

Red RemainBlue Remain

Force Ratio

Enemylosses

FriendlyLosses

LossExchange

Ratio

PclassifyPid

SelectCoverage

SupportTraffic ER*

Pk avg

Targets @Risk

EngagementEfficiency

Initial BlueForce

Blue Force

Relative RedISR

Effectiveness

SelectSensor

Processing

RemainingComparison

Time RedIneffective

Communication Network

SupportTraffic * ERFirepower

LinkProbability

ExpectedLinks toTerminal

Nodes ExpectedTerrestrial

LinksPath Links

Path SurvivalProbability

Path SurvivalW Reroute

Node Degree

Traffic ExtentPower

TerminalAccess

Service Time

CA

CS

Utilization

Link Delay

BaulkingUtilization

LinkThroughput

PriorityProportion Util Cor

Path Delay

Tries

SetupProportion

Overhead* SurvivableThroughput

Path Survival

Link Survival

SupportTraffic ER*

Select ThreatLevel

Select LinkUpgrade

Baseline

All Options

Kill Thread Delay

Processing

STS DelayExecute

ExecuteUncertainty

Revisit

EnemyResponse

Time

Remaining TimeDistribution

Total Task TimeDistribution

Sense

Plan &Deconflict

Task Time

Task TimeDistribution

Total TaskTime

RemainingTime

Task ISR

Fuse &Integrate

Targets AtRisk

Path Delay

ExecutePriority

Comm Delay

Select ThreatLevel

Targets @Risk

ExecuteTime

Target ClassWt

Wtg AvgTargets @

Risk

Select LinkUpgrade

SelectCoverage

SelectSensor

Processing

ISR

Target Size

GSD req

Classification

SensorResolution

cyc

GeoeyeRevisit

GsdGeoeyeRevisit

ISRParameters

ISR PlatformSelect

AOI

CoverInstantaneous

Cover HourlyCumulativeCoverage

RevisitTime Cover Cover Time

Detection

Pc

PclassifyCorrelation

pcd

PlatformCoverage*

GSD Select

GeoEyeRevisit Hours

GeoeyeEffectiveSpeed

GeoeyeRange

Geoeye DwellWorldGeoeyeCoverage

Geoeye AOIHourly

Coverage

AOIInstantaneous Coverage

Select ISRPath

WeaponsSurvivableThroughput

ExpectedKills Per

Sortie

Loadout

Cost

ExpectedKills

MaxExpected

Kills

Pk

Pk avg

Type

GPS

TLE*

PlatformSpeed

Range BandDistance

Range BandProportion

Dist

Standoff OrCap

CAP Direct

WeaponAssigned

Kills PerSortie

PotentialPlatforms

FastestPlatform

CAP

Speed ExecuteTime

Target ClassWt

tot

ProbabilityUpdateEscape

TactomProportion

Expectedkills TacTom

Targets @Risk

Pid

PKc

PKcor

All Options

Baseline

Terrain Weather

Pcflospv

pp

TerrainProportion

ISRParameters

Altitude

Terrain Mask*

Target Range

Pclear

Coverage *

ISR PlatformSelect average

Terrain maskby ISRPlatform

count TerMask

AverageScenario

Terrain Mask

SlectedPlatforms

Pclear

AverageScenario P

clearcount Pclear

Mask

PlatformCoverage*

Select ISRPath

MCO2 Example ResultsProportion Of Force Remaining

Blue

HighIntensity

LowIntensity

Red

MCO2 Baseline & All Options Performance Versus Threat Level

All

High Intensity

Baseline

Peace Low Intensity

MOE Dimension DefinitionsPeace Low High

Base

All

@R-% targets at risk – sufficient time to attackBR -% Blue force Remaining when red ineffectiveTI-Days till red force ineffectivePK-% average kill probability including escape probability and survivable throughputPKc –% PK corrected for classification probability and targets at riskPS-% communications Path Survival probabilityTH-% Throughput of pathST-% Survivable Throughput (PS*TH)DL-communication path delay (% of minute)SU*-% multiplier of Exchange Ratio for support traffic capabilityTLE*-% multiplier of PK for degrade of Target Location Error for GPS missilesNote: Values > 100% are truncated at 100%

Scenario Versus Options Baseline (b), All (a)(Average Kill Probability %, Low Intensity)

BaselineAll

MCO1b41

MCO1a73

MCO2b35

MCO2a84

MCO3b37

MCO3a72

GWOTb69GWOTa86

AFGAHNb59

AFGAHNa80