Joint Action Group for Operational Community

Modeling (JAG/OCM) updateFall COPC 2010

Mr. Evan KucheraJAG/OCM Chair

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Overview

JAG/OCM membership

Status of Initiatives COPC AI 2010 1-4: Develop and submit to COPC for approval a

Unified Multi-Model Ensemble Operations annex to the DAPE MOA to address NAEFS and/or NUOPC operations management, alignment of performance requirements, change management, and data dissemination.

COPC AI 2009 2-9: JAG/OCM shall investigate and propose a Southwest Asia (SWA) alignment area as a possible attachment to the Alignment of OCONUS Coarse Mesoscale Windows at AFWA and FNMOC document.

COPC AI 2009 2-10: JAG/OCM shall propose a delineation of algorithm development responsibilities among the OPC’s for variables of shared interest, and a plan for how these algorithms could be incorporated into operations.

Recommendations

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JAG/OCM Membership

AFWA—Evan Kuchera (Chair)

NOAA/NCEP—Bill Lapenta

FNMOC—Roger Stocker

NAVO—Frank Bub

NRL/MRY– Pat Phoebus

CNMOC—Steve Payne

OFCM—Ken Barnett

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COPC AI 2009 2-9Background

COPC AI 2009 2-9: JAG/OCM shall investigate and propose a Southwest Asia (SWA) alignment area as a possible attachment to the Alignment of OCONUS Coarse Mesoscale Windows at AFWA and FNMOC document.

IEMCO signed in early 2008—three year plan to align mesoscale model domains for AF/Navy

First for backup, then for ensembles

JAG/OCM developed plan to combine model domains into 4 large areas worldwide:

Effort never took hold for a number of reasons

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COPC AI 2009 2-9SWA alignment

Summary: Effort has evolved into trying to make T574 GFS (~27 km) the backup for DoD mesoscale (15-18 km) modeling

Discussed with JAG/CCM (Lou Cano) feasibility of using NOMADS servers on COPC network Requires NOAA coordination between WOC and TOC for

routing and firewall changes No anticipated technical difficulties

Next steps NOAA configures NOMADS server for COPC network Test and implement (all centers)

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COPC AI 2009 2-10Algorithm Sharing/Implementation

COPC AI 2009 2-10: JAG/OCM shall propose a delineation of algorithm development responsibilities among the OPC’s for variables of shared interest, and a plan for how these algorithms could be incorporated into operations.

Meeting in June in Boulder on common software for diagnosed variables

NCEP will lead software development NCAR will serve as liaison for community AFWA will serve as major contributor with algorithms for:

Lightning, hail, tornado, wind gusts Icing, turbulence, visibility, ceiling, low-level wind shear Precipitation type, snowfall, many others

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COPC AI 2009 2-10Algorithm Sharing/Implementation

Several variables will have stochastic algorithms or multiple algorithms Well suited to ensembles/probabilistic prediction

Next steps Developers committee (NCAR led) setting standards, change

management processes First community release set for summer 2011 Test and implement (AFWA and NCEP only) Entrain wider community, get more developers working on

same software (faster R2O)

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JAG Recommendations

Alignment of SWA domains (COPC AI 2009 2-9) Decision request: Amend/Rescind IEMCO Continue working to leverage 27 km GFS via NOMADS

for backup purposes

Algorithms/Post-Processing (COPC AI 2009 2-10) Work towards summer 2011 NCEP/NCAR release with

AFWA contributed algorithms Ways to entrain Navy interests into process?