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Johnson & Johnson NYSE: JNJ Student Investment Management (SIM) Analyst: Brent W. Soller [email protected] 614-235-2815 Recommendation: BUY Date of Report: November 26, 2010 Sector: Health Care Industry: Pharmaceuticals Financial Data 2009 2010E Revenues $61.90B $62.97B Operating Margin 25.45% 26.27% Earnings Per Share $4.40 $4.71 Working Capital $17.82B $18.71B Johnson & Johnson is one of the world’s largest diversified health care companies with over 250 individual operating companies and over 115,000 employees located in 59 countries. The firm produces pharmaceuticals, medical devices and diagnostics, and consumer health care products. Investment Thesis Johnson & Johnson and the broader Health Care Sector remain his- torically undervalued on fears the recently passed federal health care legislation will slow earnings growth. Johnson & Johnson pro- vides an attractive investment for the following reasons: Johnson & Johnson has a strong pharmaceuticals pipeline, a dedication to R&D and acquisitions, and is flush with cash, giving the firm vital flexibility. The Health Care Sector will continue to benefit from increased spending due to trends in demographics and obesity. The health care legislation should be a net positive for Johnson & Johnson by increasing the size of the market. 12-Month Share Price Performance Risks If clinical trials do not lead to FDA approval, the pharmaceuti- cals pipeline will not be as valuable as expected; as patent pro- tection for pharmaceuticals expires, the firm will face increased competition from generics. Currency risk is a potential concern for a global company. Austerity spending cuts in Europe could decrease spending on health care in those markets. The impact of some provisions within the health care legisla- tion are unknown, these could have negative impacts. Share Data Price $62.30 Target Price $82.00 Upside Potential 32% 52-Week Price Range $56.86-$66.20 Shares Outstanding (dil.) 2.75B Market Cap $171.1B Dividend Yield (annual) 3.41% Beta 0.49 2010 Q3 Data Cash & Equivalents $14.34B Revenue $15.00B YTD Revenue $45.94B Net Earnings $3.42B YTD Net Earnings $11.40B Earnings Per Share $1.23 YTD Earnings Per Share $4.08 Sources: Johnson & Johnson Financial Statements and Thompson Reuters Baseline

Transcript of johnson & Johnson - Max M. Fisher College Of Fall - Johnson... · Johnson & Johnson, founded in...

Page 1: johnson & Johnson - Max M. Fisher College Of Fall - Johnson... · Johnson & Johnson, founded in 1886 to produce sterile surgical dressings, is one now one of the ... proton pump inhibitor),

Johnson & Johnson NYSE: JNJ

Student Investment Management (SIM)

Analyst: Brent W. Soller [email protected]

614-235-2815

Recommendation: BUY

Date of Report: November 26, 2010

Sector: Health Care

Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Financial Data 2009 2010E

Revenues $61.90B $62.97B

Operating Margin 25.45% 26.27%

Earnings Per Share $4.40 $4.71

Working Capital $17.82B $18.71B

Johnson & Johnson is one of the world’s largest diversified health

care companies with over 250 individual operating companies and

over 115,000 employees located in 59 countries. The firm produces

pharmaceuticals, medical devices and diagnostics, and consumer

health care products.

Investment Thesis

Johnson & Johnson and the broader Health Care Sector remain his-

torically undervalued on fears the recently passed federal health

care legislation will slow earnings growth. Johnson & Johnson pro-

vides an attractive investment for the following reasons:

Johnson & Johnson has a strong pharmaceuticals pipeline, a

dedication to R&D and acquisitions, and is flush with cash,

giving the firm vital flexibility.

The Health Care Sector will continue to benefit from increased

spending due to trends in demographics and obesity.

The health care legislation should be a net positive for Johnson

& Johnson by increasing the size of the market.

12-Month Share Price Performance

Risks

If clinical trials do not lead to FDA approval, the pharmaceuti-

cals pipeline will not be as valuable as expected; as patent pro-

tection for pharmaceuticals expires, the firm will face increased

competition from generics.

Currency risk is a potential concern for a global company.

Austerity spending cuts in Europe could decrease spending on

health care in those markets.

The impact of some provisions within the health care legisla-

tion are unknown, these could have negative impacts.

Share Data

Price $62.30

Target Price $82.00

Upside Potential 32%

52-Week Price Range $56.86-$66.20

Shares Outstanding (dil.) 2.75B

Market Cap $171.1B

Dividend Yield (annual) 3.41%

Beta 0.49

2010 Q3 Data

Cash & Equivalents $14.34B

Revenue $15.00B

YTD Revenue $45.94B

Net Earnings $3.42B

YTD Net Earnings $11.40B

Earnings Per Share $1.23

YTD Earnings Per Share $4.08

Sources: Johnson & Johnson Financial Statements and

Thompson Reuters Baseline

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Johnson & Johnson Analyst: Brent W. Soller Page 2

Contents Company Overview ........................................................................................................................ 3 

Business Segments ...................................................................................................................... 3 

Management ................................................................................................................................ 4 

Recent Developments .................................................................................................................. 5 

Investment Thesis ........................................................................................................................... 6 

Competitive Advantage and Strategy .......................................................................................... 6 

Fundamental Drivers .................................................................................................................. 6 

Sector/Industry Trends ................................................................................................................ 7 

Financial Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 9 

Valuation Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 9 

Current Valuations.................................................................................................................... 11 

Risks .............................................................................................................................................. 12 

Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 13 

Appendix A – Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceuticals Pipeline ...................................................... 14 

Appendix B – Selected Financial Data ......................................................................................... 15 

Appendix C – Discounted Cash Flow Model ............................................................................... 16 

Appendix D – Sources .................................................................................................................. 17 

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Company Overviewi Johnson & Johnson, founded in 1886 to produce sterile surgical dressings, is one now one of the world’s largest diversified health care companies with over 250 individual operating companies and over 115,000 employees located in 59 countries. The firm became publicly traded in 1944 and derives its revenue from thousands of products developed and sold in its three business lines: pharmaceuticals, medical devices and diagnostics, and consumer health care products. The firm is truly global with 50% of its sales derived from international markets.

Business Segments The Pharmaceuticals Segment includes therapeutic products for areas including anti-infective, antipsychotic, cardiovascular, contraceptive, dermatology, gastrointestinal, hematology, immunology, neurology, oncology, pain management, urology, and virology care. Products are sold to retailers, wholesalers, and health care professionals for prescription use. Some more prominent names in Johnson & Johnson’s arsenal include Remicade (for immune mediated inflammatory diseases) Procrit (for stimulating red blood cell production), Levaquin (an anti-infective), Risperdal Consta (for schizophrenia), Concerta (for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), Aciphex/Pariet (a proton pump inhibitor), Duragesic (for chronic pain), Velcade (for multiple myeloma), Prezista (for HIV/AIDS), and Invega (an antipsychotic).

The Medical Devices and Diagnostics Segment includes a broad range of products used by healthcare professionals in hospitals, laboratories, and clinics. These products are sold directly and through distributors to wholesalers, hospitals, and retailers. The most prominent products include Cordis circulatory disease management products; DePuy orthopaedic joint reconstruction, spinal care, and sports medicine products; Ethicon surgical care, aesthetics, women’s health, and minimally invasive surgical products; LifeScan blood glucose monitoring and insulin delivery products; Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics professional diagnostic products; and Vistakon disposable contact lenses.

The Consumer Segment includes the most recognizable names amongst Johnson & Johnson’s broad array of products. These include baby care, skin care, oral care, wound care, women’s health care, nutritional, and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products. Some of the many prominent products include Johnson’s Baby products; skin care names Aveeno, Neutrogena, RoC, and Lubriderm; oral care product Listerine; would care products Band-Aid and Purell; no-calorie sweetener Splenda; the entire line of Tylenol acetaminophen products; the entire line Sudafed and Zyrtec cold, flu, and allergy products; pain manager Motrin IB; and stomach acid controller Pepcid AC.

Exhibit 1 Segment 2009 Sales Pharmaceuticals 36% Medical Devices and Diagnostics 38% Consumer Health Care 26%

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Management Mr. William C. Weldon is Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of Johnson & Johnson. Mr. Weldon assumed this role in April of 2002 after serving as Worldwide Chairman for the Pharmaceuticals Group and a Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors, positions he had held since 1998. Mr. Weldon joined Johnson & Johnson in 1971 and has held positions in numerous subsidiaries including McNeil Pharmaceutical in the U.S., the ICOM Regional Development Center in Southeast Asia, Ortho-Cilag Pharmaceutical in the U.K, Janssen Pharmaceutica in the U.S., and in the Ethicon Endo-Surgery in the U.S. Mr. Weldon is also serves as a member of the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase & Co., the Chairman of the CEO Roundtable on Cancer, the Vice Chair of The Business Council, as a member of The Sullivan Commission on Diversity in the Health Professions Workforce, as Chairman of the Liberty Science Center Advisory Council, and as a member of the Board of Trustees for Quinnipiac University, his alma mater.

Other senior management includes:

Exhibit 2 Name Age Position Dominic J. Caruso 52 Member, Executive Committee; Vice President, Finance; Chief Financial Officer Russell C. Deyo 60 Member, Executive Committee; Vice President, Human Resources and General Counsel Colleen A. Goggins 55 Member, Executive Committee; Worldwide Chairman, Consumer Alex Gorsky 49 Member, Executive Committee; Worldwide Chairman, Medical Devices and Diagnostics Sherilyn S. McCoy 51 Member, Executive Committee; Worldwide Chairman, Pharmaceuticals

Most of the senior managers have been with the company for more than two decades and have provided the experienced, steady leadership which has allowed this venerated company to maintain its steady growth and market leadership. This team is considered an asset for the firm’s future prospects.

Compensation for Mr. Weldon has the following approximate weighting: 10% base salary, 15% annual bonus, 39% Options/Restricted Shares, 36% Certificates of Long Performance. The other executive officers have a very similar mix with a slightly higher weight given to base salary and the annual bonus. The levels of compensation are based upon the performance metrics of Sales Growth, Net Income Growth and Margin, Free Cash Flow, Earnings per Share, and Shareholder Return. This structure provides the proper incentives for management to remain focused on long-term growth.ii

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Recent Developments Johnson & Johnson has experienced four noteworthy events in recent monthsiii:

• On October 6, 2010, Johnson & Johnson announced that it would acquire Crucell, a Dutch vaccine producer. The move is expected to augment the firm’s internal research and development efforts.

• On October 18, 2010, The McNeil Consumer Products division announced product control problems which the FDA is investigating. These problems led to the October 18, 2010 announcement that it is recalling a small proportion of the Tylenol products from this division.

• On October 19, 2010, third quarter earnings were announced at $1.23 per share. This beat the consensus quarterly estimate, which was $1.15 per share.

• On November 15, 2010 a Phase III clinical trial on Xarelto, a drug Johnson & Johnson is co-developing with Bayer AG, showed positive results in reducing the severity of strokes.

These events did not appear to have any lasting impact on Johnson & Johnson’s stock price, which has underperformed the market, along with the rest of the Health Care Sector, as shown in Exhibit 3. It appears that the market is still wary of the impact health care legislation signed into law on March 23, 2010, and is dramatically discounting the sector because of this uncertainty.iv

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Investment Thesis The BUY recommendation for Johnson & Johnson is based upon the firm’s competitive advantages, including its strong brand names, pharmaceuticals pipeline, and financial results and the broad macroeconomic trends which are driving the health care market. Each of these topics will be discussed below.

Competitive Advantage and Strategyv Johnson & Johnson has been well served throughout recent history by its diversified product offering and its dedication to research and development. In 2009 alone, Johnson & Johnson spent over $7 billion in research and development and 25% of its 2009 revenue was generated by products it introduced in the previous five years. Recently, the firm has also leaned upon acquisitions to bolster its development portfolio, as shown in Exhibit 4. This positions the firm

favorably in the three fastest-growing segments of the industry: vaccines, bio-surgical products, and aesthetics.

Johnson & Johnson also has the luxury of numerous name-brand products in its Consumer Segment (as described above).

This advantage was considerably strengthened with its 2006 purchase of Pfizer’s consumer health care business which added notable products, including Nicorrette, Visine, Neosporin, Benadryl, and Zantac. With strong brand loyalty and name recognition, it would take competitors years and large capital commitments to match this division.

Additionally, Johnson & Johnson’s Pharmaceuticals Segment has a robust pipeline with 26 FDA Phase III trials currently underway. This should be a strength going forward, offsetting patent expirations with sales of new pharmaceuticals. More detail of the pipeline is included in Appendix A.

Finally, as developing markets, such as China, India, and Brazil, increase health care spending to cover more citizens, it provides significant growth opportunities. Johnson & Johnson is already strongly involved in these markets and stands to gain from their growth.

Fundamental Drivers Johnson & Johnson benefits from its diversification, participating in one-third of the overall global health care market. Therefore, as health care goes, so too does Johnson & Johnson. Thankfully for the company, several fundamental drivers are expected to lead to five percent annual growth in the overall health care market, with Johnson & Johnson positioning to focus in the high-growth segments and countries. Domestically, the health care market will benefit from:

Exhibit 4 Major Acquisition Year Firm Strength Conor Medsystems 2007 Coronary Stents Omrix Biopharmaceuticals 2008 Immunotherapy Mentor Corp 2009 Aesthetics Cougar Biotechnology 2009 Anti-Cancer Crucell 2010 Vaccines R&D

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• Demographics – increasing life-expectancy (now at over 78 years) is leading to greater spending on pharmaceuticals, diagnostic devices, and consumer products. Additionally, a greater proportion of the population is older, causing healthcare spending to increase faster than general economic growth. Currently, 16% of U.S. GDP is spent on health care and 30% of that spending is for senior care. Both of those proportions are expected to increase.vi

• Obesity – Unfortunately, Americans are overweight with almost 35% of adults classified as obese and with that proportion increasing at a rate of 0.5% per year. Obesity leads to numerous health problems, including diabetes and heart disease, dramatically increasing health care spending.vii

• Health Care Reform – Although there are both positives and negatives to the recently passed health care legislation, several components of the bill should benefit the markets in which Johnson & Johnson participates. Perhaps as many as 32 million more Americans will have health insurance, increasing overall demand for all segments of the firm’s business.viii Additionally, there were no provisions in the new law granting the government the power to negotiate (i.e., push down) prices for services. With the results of the recent mid-term congressional elections, it is also now anticipated that the most potentially-damaging provisions in the bill will be modified before they take effect.ix

Sector/Industry Trends The Health Care Sector appears to be unambiguously undervalued when compared to historical norms. With the worst year-to-date performance of any sector in the S&P 500 (see Exhibit 5 to the right), Health Care has underperformed the broader index by over nine hundred basis points. Oddly, the underlying fundamentals remain positive with improving earnings, book values, and cash flow numbers. This has led to valuations near, or at, their 10-year lows when measured on absolute or relative bases. Exhibit 6 on the next page shows that the Health Care Sector is currently trading at a discount on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500, when compared to history. The Sector suffered leading up to the passage of the health care reform legislation in the U.S. For the reasons stated in the previous section, the drop in prices appears to have been disproportionately severe.

Exhibit 5 PRICE RETURNSx QTD YTDS&P 500 4.2% 6.7%BY SECTOR Cons Disc 8.8% 21.9%Industrials 3.8% 15.6%Materials 7.1% 8.4%Energy 10.7% 8.0%Cons Staples 2.2% 7.4%Info Tech 6.6% 5.8%Telecom Svc -0.7% 5.3%Financials 0.6% 0.3%Utilities -2.3% -1.4%Health Care 0.0% -2.4%

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Exhibit 6xi 10-Year Health Care Sector Valuations Absolute Basis High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 35.5 9.9 18.9 12.1 P/Forward E 31.6 10.0 17.7 11.6 P/B 10.1 2.2 4.1 3.2 P/S 4.7 1.0 1.9 1.2 P/CF 27.7 7.6 14.0 10.4 Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 P/Forward E 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.9 P/B 2.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 P/S 2.4 1.0 1.3 1.0 P/CF 1.9 0.9 1.3 1.1

Historically, Health Care Sector returns have shown only weak relationships with macroeconomic measures, with the exception of a positive relationship with employment (correlation: r = 0.69). This is for two reasons – health insurance is largely tied to employment and, in times of economic decline, people tend to delay discretionary and cosmetic surgeries. Although it is reasonable to assume that this relationship may weaken in the future if the recent health care reform successfully insures more of the unemployed, the Health Care Sector should be buoyed as employment strengthens. Exhibit 7 shows the correlation between employment and the Health Care Sector over the past five years.xii

Exhibit 7 xii Health Care Sector and Employment Correlation

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Financial Analysisxiii Due to the careful management of its product lines and operations, Johnson & Johnson has a healthy balance sheet and income statement with a strong cash position and growing earnings. Appendix B contains selected financial data and forecasts firm growth into the future. The forecasts show that as operating margins and sales growth slowly return to more normalized trends, consensus earnings per share values are easily attainable. Even through the difficulty of the past few years, Accounts Receivable, Accounts Payable, and Inventories have remained steady. Further, after $18 billion in acquisitions in 2006 drained reserves the company has significantly strengthened its cash position – this provides Johnson & Johnson with the flexibility to increase acquisitions or spending on product development. All the while, the firm has continued to spend on research and development to prepare for the future.

Although Johnson & Johnson is classified as a member of the pharmaceuticals industry, it would appear that, as pharmaceuticals only make up 36% of its revenue, this is too narrow a definition. Therefore, while it is difficult to find competition which exactly matches Johnson & Johnson’s unique make-up, when compared against other global diversified health care companies Johnson & Johnson is appears attractive. As shown in Exhibit 8, Johnson & Johnson is well positioned compared to its peers using financial and valuation ratios.

Exhibit 8xiv Competitor Comparison

Current

Ratio

Long-Term Debt to Assets

Return On Equity

Price/ Trailing Earnings

Price/ Sales

Price/ Book

PEG Ratio

Johnson & Johnson 1.8 8.7 26.4 12.8 2.8 8.9 2.1 Novartis AG 1.7 9.1 15.6 12.6 2.8 3.3 2.7 Merck & Co. 1.8 14.3 33.0 13.4 3.9 17.7 2.3 Roche Holdings 1.7 48.5 30.0 14.3 2.5 8.1 1.6 Pfizer, Inc. 1.7 20.3 11.7 21.7 2.6 1.5 6.7

Valuation Analysisxv The target price of $82 per share, which provides 31.6% upside, was determined using both valuation multiples and discounted cash flow analysis.

Exhibit 9 10-Year Johnson & Johnson Stock Valuations Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 1.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 P/Forward E 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 P/B 3.0 1.4 1.9 1.5 P/S 4.2 2.1 2.6 2.3 P/CF 2.4 1.0 1.5 1.2

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Johnson & Johnson shares are unambiguously undervalued relative to the broader market when compared to the last 10 years. Exhibit 9, on the previous page, highlights that those ratios are currently near or at their 10-year lows.

To further the analysis of valuation ratios, I compared Johnson & Johnson’s absolute valuations to the previous 10 years. As shown in Exhibit 10 above, even conservatively assuming that the multiples will not entirely revert to the median, the price target implied by this analysis is between $75.36 and $100.37 per share.

A more in-depth analysis was then completed using the discounted cash flow model presented in Appendix C. This model uses the estimates previously described in the financial analysis and shown in Appendix B and then projects them until 2020. Two overarching assumptions went into the model: a discount rate of 9.5% and a terminal growth rate of 4.0%. I am comfortable with those assumptions for the following reasons. I believe the discount rate of 9.5% is conservative (assuming an S&P 500 discount rate of 10%) given the stability of Johnson & Johnson’s earnings in their recent history – especially given the economic turmoil which occurred. I also believe the terminal growth rate of 4.0% is reasonable given the fact that Johnson & Johnson is a mature company in a mature market, and has been able to grow sales at a 5.5% compounded rate over the last five years. With these assumptions, the model estimates a value of $86.55 per share.

To further test the reasonableness of my assumptions, I then performed a sensitivity analysis changing the discount and terminal growth rate assumptions. The results of this analysis, in terms of target price and implied upside potential, are shown below in Exhibits 11 and 12, respectively.

Exhibit 11 DCF Sensitivity Analysis - Target Price Discount Rate 9.00% 9.25% 9.50% 9.75% 10.00%

Gro

wth

Rat

e 3.50% $89.42 $85.55 $82.01 $78.75 $75.74 3.75% $92.07 $87.93 $84.14 $80.67 $77.48 4.00% $95.00 $90.53 $86.55 $82.76 $79.36 4.25% $98.23 $93.39 $89.02 $85.04 $81.41 4.50% $101.81 $96.56 $91.82 $87.54 $83.64

Exhibit 10 10-Year Johnson & Johnson Stock Valuations

Absolute Valuation High Low Median Current

Target Multiple

Target Value Per

Share Target Price

P/Forward E 29.3 11.1 17.1 13.3 16.0 4.7 $ 75.36 P/S 6.1 2.2 3.8 2.8 3.5 22.9 $ 80.14 P/B 8.8 3.0 5.7 3.3 5.2 19.3 $ 100.37 P/EBITDA 20.4 6.9 12.4 8.8 12.2 6.0 $ 73.37 P/CF 27.0 9.0 16.2 11.0 15.0 5.2 $ 78.49

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Exhibit 12 DCF Sensitivity Analysis - Upside Potential Discount Rate 9.00% 9.25% 9.50% 9.75% 10.00%

Gro

wth

Rat

e 3.50% 44% 37% 32% 26% 22% 3.75% 48% 41% 35% 29% 24% 4.00% 52% 45% 39% 33% 27% 4.25% 58% 50% 43% 37% 31% 4.50% 63% 55% 47% 41% 34%

To determine a final target price, I first utilized the valuation multiples. Because the Price/Book Ratio is an outlier, I dropped it from the calculation. The other multiples were weighted equally which provides a simple average of $76.84. I then weighted each valuation technique equally, resulting in what I feel is a reasonable and conservative target price:

$86.55 50% $75.36 $80.14 $73.37 $78.49

4 50% $81.70 $82 /

Current Valuations Presently, Johnson & Johnson equity is trading at $62.30 per share. With the given underlying fundamental data, this implies a far different set of assumptions than I have utilized. To gain a better understanding about whether or not the current price is reasonable I further tested the discounted cash flow model. While the permutations are infinite, I tested certain assumptions while keeping the others constant.

• Assuming the 9.5% discount rate is correct, Johnson & Johnson would have to experience literally no sales growth through the year 2020, to justify today’s price.

• Assuming sales do decline to a terminal rate of 4.0%, the discount rate would have to be raised to nearly 12.0%, far above the market discount rate of approximately 10.0% to justify today’s price.

• Assuming the 9.5% discount and 4.0% terminal growth rates are correct, operating margins would have to collapse to 18.2%, far below the 25.4% margins Johnson & Johnson has averaged over the past 5 years, to justify today’s price.

While there are many combinations of assumptions which could force the discounted cash flow model to justify today’s price, all of them seem to be unreasonable given the firm’s fundamentals. It appears there is simply a market dislocation where the price has not yet caught up with the firm’s intrinsic value.

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Risks As with any investment thesis there are risks involved. Johnson & Johnson is reliant upon approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for approval of its pharmaceuticals products. There is always risk that clinical trials will not lead to approval of drugs in the pipeline. Also, as patent protections for some pharmaceuticals expire, there is a risk that competition from generic alternatives will hurt the firm’s profits.

Johnson & Johnson is a global company, which creates the risk that currency movements will erode profits. Additionally, with government deficits’ rising there have been increased pressures to cut costs through austerity measures – especially in European markets. As government expenditures provide the vast majority of health care spending in those markets, some of these cuts have already resulted in decreased health care spending. Further austerity cuts would pose a threat to future earnings.

Finally, while it is expected that the federal health care legislation will be, at worst, a neutral impact on earnings, many of the law’s implications are not yet understood. There is a risk that the law’s impacts will be worse than expected.

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Summary Johnson & Johnson has a track record of competent management and steady growth in a health care market with a positive outlook. This leads to a BUY recommendation with a target price of $82, which implies an upside of 31.6% from the closing price of $62.30 on Friday, November 26, 2010. The investment thesis is driven by a number of catalysts:

• Demographics – Health care spending will continue to increase as the American population ages.

• Obesity – Health care spending will continue to increase due to complications created by an increasingly overweight American society.

• Health Care Reform – Adding more Americans to the health insurance roles will enlarge the customer base for Johnson & Johnson.

• Pipeline – A strong pipeline of new pharmaceuticals should provide for future growth.

• R&D – Ongoing research and development, maintained even in the recently tough economic environment, shows management’s dedication to planning for the future.

• Acquisitions – Recent acquisitions have strengthened Johnson & Johnson’s position in the fastest growing segments of the Health Care Sector.

• Cash Position – A strong cash position, built up through the worst of the economy, will provide the firm with the flexibility to continue acquisitions or increase product development spending.

• Undervalued – Based on both the discounted cash flow analysis and valuation multiples, both the Health Care Sector and Johnson & Johnson are historically undervalued, not reflecting the underlying fundamentals.

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Appendix A – Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceuticals Pipelinexvi

Approved in 2009 In Registration Planned Filings for 2010

Planned Filings for 2011-2013

INVEGA® SUSTENNA™ Rivaroxaban Abiraterone Acetate Fulranumab (Neuroscience) (Cardiovascular &

Metabolism) (Oncology) (Neuroscience)

PRILIGY™ (E.U.) TMC 278 Telaprevir (E.U.) Bapineuzumab IV (Sexual Health) (Infectious Disease) (Infectious Disease) (Neuroscience) SIMPONI™ YONDELIS™ Canagliflozin (Immunology) (Oncology) (Cardiovascular &

Metabolism) STELARA™ DACOGEN™ (E.U.) (Immunology) (Oncology) Siltuximab (CNTO 328) (Oncology) CNTO 136 (Immunology) TMC 207 (Infectious Disease) TMC 435 (Infectious Disease)

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Appendix B – Selected Financial Data

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Appendix C – Discounted Cash Flow Model

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Appendix D – Sources i Unless otherwise noted, all Company Overview information was obtained from the Johnson & Johnson 2009 10-K. ii Executive Compensation information retrieved from the Johnson & Johnson Notice of Annual Meeting and Proxy Statement, March 17, 2010. iii Johnson & Johnson press releases (www.investor.jnj.com/press-release.cfm) iv Data obtained from Morningstar (www.morningstar.com). v Johnson & Johnson 2009 10-K. vi Department of Health and Human Services (www.hhs.gov). vii Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (www.cdc.gov). viii Kaiser Health News (http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Topics/Reform.aspx). ix Advocates Renew Push for Power to Negotiate, The Commonwealth Fund, March 15, 2010 (www.commonwealthfund.org/Content/Newsletters/Washington-Health-Policy-in-Review/2010/Mar/March-15-2010/Advocates-Renew-Push-to-Give-Medicare-the-Power-to-Negotiate-Drug-Price.aspx). x Return data obtained from Standard and Poor’s (www.standardandpoors.com). xi Data obtained from Thompson Reuters Baseline. xii Data obtained from Thompson Reuters Baseline. xiii Unless otherwise noted, all Financial Analysis information was retrieved from the Johnson & Johnson 2009 10-K, and the Johnson & Johnson 2010 10-Q reports. xiv Data obtained from Thompson Reuters Baseline. xv Unless otherwise noted, all Valuation Analysis information was obtained from Thompson Reuters Baseline. xvi Johnson & Johnson 2010 Pharmaceuticals Pipeline, October 19, 2010 (http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/JNJ/1030367410x0x406808/4029adba-51eb-428f-990a-71503b753398/Q32010pipeline.pdf).