John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP
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Transcript of John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP
John Husing, Ph.D.
Economics & Politics, Inc.
Chief Economist, IEEP
Inland Empire Economic Growth . . .
Take Off?
After Losing 8.78 Million Jobs …U.S. Jobs Are Still Crawling Back
-664,000 Government Jobs+8,221,000 Private Sector (94.1%)
Unemployment Falling, But High
Worst U.S. Metropolitan Area Unemployment Rates
Primary Tier
Secondary Tier
Economic Development … Increase The Economic Base!
How Regional Economies Work
Three Step Growth ProcessBased On Interaction Of:
• Population
• Preferences
• Dirt
Prices Force Decisions
Southern California Population Growth, 2000-2012
People Prefer To Live Near The Coast
As a homeowner, would you prefer to move closer to work if it involved a townhouse or condo?
(I-15 & Sr-91 Commuters, 2008)
72.3% No
Same question to Renters:
87.5% No
Answer stable over 5 years
•People forced to move inland for affordable homes
•Population Serving Jobs Only
•High Desert & I-215 South are current examples
Stage #1: Rapid Population Growth
Commuting Bad, But Stable Over Time
1,650,384 Total Jobs
1,156,313 Inside IE
494,071 Commute Outside County
154,845 Between IE Counties
339,226 Outside IE
20.6% Commute Outside the IE
16.3% Orange County Commuters
Construction: Finally Some Hope
Share of Underwater Homes Plunging
4Q 2012 to 3Q 2013
333,720 to 170,768-48.8%
Home Price Trends
52.8%
32.3%
49.5% less for Existing home
-39.2%
Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists
Permits: Finally Some Optimism
Firms Prefers The Coastal Counties
Stage 2: Strong Industrial Growth
Vacancy Nearing Historic Lows
Undeveloped Land … Industrial Prices Much Lower In Outlying Areas
84.2%
107.2%
156.6%
$0.38
$0.56$0.63
$0.78
Inland Empire Los Angeles Co. Orange Co. San Diego (non-R&D)
Price Per Sq. Ft.
Price with 20% Cubic Factor
Difference
.
% Difference
nnn=net of taxes, insurance, common area feesSource: CB Richard Ellis
Exhibit 13.-Industrial Space Costs DifferencesSouthern California, Sub-Markets, March 2013
Workforce Needs Jobs Without Educational Barriers
Workers Will Work For Less Not To Commute
0.0%
4.26%2.55%
5.81%
$33,240 $34,656 $34,089 $35,173
Inland Empire San Diego Los Angeles Orange
Weight Median Pay Percent IE Pay Is Lower
Note: Occupations in common weighted by Inland Empire JobsSource: CA Employment Development Department, Occupational Wage Survey, Economics & Politics, Inc. calculations
Exhibit 82.-Median Wage & Salary Percent DifferenceInland Empire vs. Coastal Counties, 2010459 Common Occupations, Under $70,000
Logistics Flow of Goods
Port Container Volumes
Fulfillment Centers
17 Firms Looking For Space7 Are Fulfillment Centers
1,500,0001,000,0001,000,000
800,000 to 1,000,000700,000 to 1,000,000500,000 to 800,000700,000 to 900,000
850,000700,000700,000
700,000 to 800,000600,000
600,000 to 700,000500,000450,000
300,000 to 400,000350,000
Source: Jones LaSalle
Inland Empire Logistics Jobs
32.5% of All Inland Jobs … Jan-Nov. 2012-2013
Manufacturing: Could Be A Major Growth Source
Manufacturing Orders Irregular
U.S. v. California Manufacturing Jobs
Manufacturing Slowing
Regulatory Environment Aimed At
“Dirty” Blue Collar Sectors Impacts
Construction, Manufacturing, Logistics
Median Pay By Sector Groups
Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs. Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level
Monitoring SitesMira Loma-Van
BurenRiverside-Magnolia
Riverside-Rubidoux
Fontana-Arrow Highway
Ontario-1408 Francis Street
San Bernardino-4th Street
2001 120.2 58.2 79.5 80.8
2002 88.4 92.6 73.7 67.4 88.9
2003 69.7 78.1 54.3 62.2 55.2
2004 * 47.8 57.3 * * *
2005 * * 39.7 22.9 25.3 9.3
2006 46.2 31.3 * 27.2 * *
2007 43.4 * * * * *
2008 * 12.4 15.0 19.3 19.4 9.5
2009 19.0 6.0 15.1 6.2 9.0 6.2
2010 8.0 6.3 4.0 6.6 3.2 5.9
2011 13.0 7.1 5.0 7.1 6.8 *
2012 7.0 * 7.0 10.6 0.0 0.0Change From
Highest -39.2 -81.3 -113.2 -63.1 -79.5 -88.9
Change -84.8% -92.0% -94.2% -85.6% -100.0% -100.0%Net Absorptiont Since Highest 86,378,254 183,911,357 229,967,544 183,911,357 229,967,544 183,911,357
Air Becoming Cleaner
Poverty
Exhibit 2.-Share & Number of Inland Residents Below Poverty Level
Census Bureau Year
People In PovertyShare of Population
in PovertyPopulation
1990 306,417 11.8% 2,588,793
2000 477,496 14.7% 3,255,526
2012 809,234 19.0% 4,293,892
Changes +164.4% +7.2% +65.9%
African American: 27.2%Hispanic: 23.9%White: 12.1%Asian: 10.4%
Stage 3.-Office Based Firms Follow Their Workers
Skilled WorkersSkilled Workers Migrate InlandFor Better Homes
Office Absorption Finally Starting to Recover
High-End Jobs Follow Workers
into the Area
Outlying Workers Will Work For Less Not To Commute
0.0%
7.70% 9.17% 9.22%
$86,806$93,489 $94,768 $94,806
Inland Empire San Diego Los Angeles Orange
Weight Median Pay Percent IE Pay Is Lower
Note: Occupations in common weighted by Inland Empire JobsSource: CA Employment Development Department, Occupational Wage Survey, Economics & Politics, Inc. calculations
Exhibit 98.-Median Wage & Salary Percent DifferenceInland Empire vs. Coastal Counties, 2010138 Common Occupations, $70,000 & Up
Office Vacancy Rates Improving But Still Very High
18.1%
High End Occupations & Office Unstable
Inland Empire’s In-migration From Coastal Counties Has Not Yet Recovered
-15,538
Not Bringing Skills, Wealth, Income & Spending
Health Care
Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth
700 600 800
Health Care Demand Set To Explode
People Without Health Insurance (2012): 828,431 (19.0%)People Will Age, Already Those 55 & Over are 926,696 (21.3%)Population Growth Will Resume (2000-2013) 1,075,807 (33.0%)Inland Health Care Workers Handle More People Than CA: (35%)
Federal Job Cuts
Debt CeilingBudget Fights
Assessed Valuation Finally Growing (6.1% for SB County)
-1.0%
Government Remains Weak
Primary Tier
Secondary Tier
How Regional Economies Work
Retail Sales Almost Back
Retail, Consumer Service, Hotel, Amusement Jobs Gaining Speed
Where Will IE Be In Its Job History?30,050
41,025
37,642
36,533
36,775
41,483
46,008
6,342
9,758
4,575
16,917
28,925
23,083
38,325
40,692
56,467
49,850
40,567
33,292
35,467 59,275
61,533
44,692
2,508
(46,208)
(84,892)
(17,325)
4,633
23,025
14,282
28,300
35,000
1984
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edd
2013
bls
2014
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Sources: CA Employment Development Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economics & Politics, Inc.
Exhibit 8.-Wage & Salary Job ChangeInland Empire, Annual Average, 1984-2014e
2011-201355,958 of 148,425 lost or 37.7%
2011-201490,958 of 148,425 lost or 61.3%
Forecast
2014 Better Than 2013• Health Care Will Grow• Logistics Will Grow • Retail Gaining• Office Growth Very Slow• Home Building Starts Back• Growth Looks Normal• Still Well Below Pre-Recession
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