John Hornick_Inside3DPrintingHK

3D Printing and the Future (or Demise) of Intellectual Property

John Hornick

August 2014

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First, a Disclaimer

“Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they the shadows of things that May be?”

» Ebenezer Scrooge, to the Third Spirit

Keep in Mind . . .

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Keep in Mind

Tipping into the mainstream

Everything will change when . . .

Implications

Why the Future (or Demise) of IP?

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Two Reasons

Democratization of manufacturing

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Some People Don’t Like IP

“There is a persistent widespread belief that intellectual property law (and patents in particular) encourage innovation. This is intuitive, however, the evidence to the contrary is now overwhelming and the unavoidable conclusion is that intellectual property actually stifles innovation.”

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Snapshot of the 3D Printer Players

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HIGH-END

PRINTERS

LOW-COST PRINTERS

3D Kits, A1 Technologies, Ac123Dc, Afinia, Airwolf 3D, Asiga, B9Creations, BatBot, Bits from Bytes, Blue Printer, CB-Printer, Code-p, CSP, Cubify, Deezmaker, Essential Dynamics, Eventorbot, EZ 3D printers, Fabbster, Fablicator, Felix Printers, Formlabs, German RepRap Foundation, Hot

Proceed, Hyrel 3D, Intelligent Machine Inc., Invent Apart, iRapid, Leapfrog, Lulzbot, Makemendel, Makergear, MaukCC, Mbot 3D, Mendel

Parts, MendelMax, miniFactory, Mixshop, Multistation, NW RepRap, PP3DP, Printrbot, Rays Opitcs, RepRap France - eMotion Tech, RepRapPro,

ReprapSource, Robo 3D, Robot Factory, Romscraj, Sharebot, Solido, Solidoodle, Sumpod, Tantillus, The Future is 3-D, Tinkerine Studio,

TrinityLabs, Type A Machines, Ultimaker, Ultra-Bot, Weistek, York 3D Printers, Zbot.cc

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Why 3DP May Change Everything

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Why It May Change Everything: Micro

One machine, no assembly

Impossible designs, interior structures

Affordable customization – Complexity = free

– Batches of one, on demand

Greener

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Why It May Change Everything: Macro

Facially inconsistent situations

– Manufacturing Renaissance Strong intellectual capital

But high manufacturing costs

– Repatriation of jobs No advantage in offshoring

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But – Disruption/destruction of traditional models – Future sales:

Designs, not products

– Regional

– Distributed

How can we have both?

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But – Disruption/destruction of traditional models – Future sales:

Designs, not products

– Regional

– Distributed

How can we have both?

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“Three guys in a garage can suddenly have the manufacturing capability to produce things of immense complexity, which, once upon a time, they couldn’t have dreamed of.” Prof. Andy Keane

University of Southhampton, UK

2Seas UAV

Thought Experiment

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What Would Happen if?

Anyone could make things

with virtually any functionality

away from control?

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away from control?

Cody Wilson

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away from control?

Effect on:

– Traditional Business Models?

– IP?

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Answer: Paradigm Shift

–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers

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Lines will blur

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Lines will blur

Fundamentally different products

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Lines will blur


BACK TO making, not buying

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Lines will blur


BACK TO making, not buying

–As democratization increases . . .

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As democratization increases

–IP becomes increasingly irrelevant

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–IP increasingly irrelevant

–Customization replaces IP

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–Trade secrets

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–Trade secrets

–Non-IP-based models

IP Disruption Checklist

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Disruption Checklist

Industrial scale – Large build platform

– Speed or scale

Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials

– Ability to print complex structures

– Micro scale printing

– Hybrid machines

– Innovators

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One more thing:

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One more thing:

– Ability to do all of this away from control

At home

Uncontrolled sources

3DP Today

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3DP Today Manufacturing: growing rapidly

– ½ of all machines

Hot areas:

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3DP in Aerospace Boeing :

“This is the ultimate manufacturing method for us”

Airbus: wing brackets

North Western Polytechnical U (China): titanium wing spar

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3DP in Aerospace

“This is the future of manufacturing”

Acquired 2 AM companies

Parts for 4000 LEAP engines

– Alabama

– DMLS titanium powder

– Weight

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3DP in Automotive

3 Cool Cars

0 to 60 in 5 days

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OHq3ydXJdDE/TgphEI2EyeI/AAAAAAAEoJo/xfGZYlD0zUo/s1600/XC2V.jpg

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3DP in Healthcare

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3DP in Healthcare

Facial Reconstruction

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3DP in Healthcare Proof of concept customizable artificial heart

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3DP in Healthcare

Proof of concept customizable artificial heart

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3DP in Healthcare

Heart sensor/defibrillator membrane

– Washington U, St. Louis & U of Illinois

Heart by 2023

– University of Louisville

Aorta Cells

– Sabanci U, Turkey

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– Advanced Systems, Kentucky

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3DP of Complex Structures Stratasys and Optomec: first fully 3DP electro-

mechanical structure

UTEP: printed electronic structures

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3DP of Complex Structures

Disney speakers:

Google/3D Systems: ARA

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3DP of Complex Structures

MIT Center for Bits & Atoms

– 3D Assemblers

Atoms/molecules

Complete functional systems

Materials: Golden Age

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Ordinary Materials

A growing range of printable materials:

– Plastics

– Metals

– Ceramics

– Food

– Glass

– Wood

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Star Trek Materials

Liquid metal

– NC State University

– Flexible, stretchable

– Liquid at room temperature

– Self-healing

U of Warwick:

– Carbomorph

Conductive plastic

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Star Trek Materials

Graphene – Flexible

– Transparent

– Conductive

– Harder than diamond

– 200x stronger than steel steel

Graphene Flagship – €1 billion European Commission Initiative

– 75 institutions and partners, 17 European countries

Kibaran/3D Group/3D Graphtech Industries

http://cdn.3dprintingindustry.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/balancing-act_1.jpg

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Star Trek Materials

Chiplets (Xerox PARC) – Grain of sand

– Containing intelligent data

– Microscopic electronic building blocks

Self-forming Metal

– Tsinghua University

– Chinese Academy of Sciences

Why 3DP Will Rock The IP World

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Rocking the IP World

Companies’ IP Philosophy

Protectability

IP infringement: – Types

– Likelihood

– Effectiveness of enforcement

– Scale

Risk to IP system:

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Protectability


– Likelihood


– Scale

Risk to IP system:

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Protectability: 13,000 PATENTS/APPLICATIONS


– Likelihood


– Scale

Risk to IP system:

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Protectability

IP infringement: – Types: PATENT, COPYRIGHT, TRADE SECRET, TM

– Likelihood


– Scale

Risk to IP system:

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Protectability


– Likelihood


– Scale

Risk to IP system:

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Protectability


– Likelihood


– Scale

Risk to IP system:

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Protectability


– Likelihood


– Scale

Risk to IP system:

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Protectability


– Likelihood


– Scale

Risk to IP system: depends on democratization

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Cuts across all IP Cuts across ALL technology and

products Gartner: $100B by 2018 Internet + 3DP = . . . .

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Internet + 3DP = powerful tool for:

avoiding & defeating IP

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“There is no reason for patent and trademark law to repeat the mistakes of copyright, but there is every reason to think that these mistakes will be repeated” Desai & Magliocca

IP Disruption Checklist: Where Are We Now?

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– Speed or scale




– Hybrid machines

– Innovators, especially . . .

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– Speed or scale




– Hybrid machines


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– Speed or scale

Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials Loughborough U FACTUM HSS



– Hybrid machines

– Innovators, especially . . . .

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– Speed or scale




– Hybrid machines


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– Speed or scale




– Hybrid machines


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– Speed or scale




– Hybrid machines


Focused Electron Beam Induced Deposition

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– Speed or scale




– Hybrid machines


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– Speed or scale

Industrial or Home scale --2013: 72,500 – Hybrid materials



– Hybrid machines

– Innovators, especially kids

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One more thing:

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One more thing:


At home


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One more thing:


At home


What Will Happen Next?

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Short Term

Branded Products

Mass Production

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Longer Term

IP models suffer the 5 Is (Eyes) – Infringement

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Longer Term


– Identification

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Longer Term


– Identification

– Impractical or Impossible

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Longer Term


– Identification


– Irrelevant

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Away from Control

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Away from Control

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Away from Control

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Longer Term


– Identification


– Irrelevant

Bigger Issue: Why buy branded products?

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Longer Term


– Identification


– Irrelevant

Bigger Issue: Why buy branded products?

Biggest issue: – Effect on mass production

Why the Experts Are Wrong

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– “Most 3DP sales will be industrial”

– “Most homes will not have 3DP anytime soon”

– “Home 3DP will be unsophisticated”

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Except this one:

– Avi says:

“We live in exponential times”

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And this one:

“I think every home within 10 years, probably less than that, will have its own 3D printer, just as many homes now have a 2D or laser printer”

Andy Bird, Chairman, Disney International

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Metal Printers for the Home – i-AM (inkjet)

– Vader (inkjet)

– Mini Metal Maker (clay)

– FABtotum

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MARKFORG3D

Cartesian ARGENTUM

$5M vs. $400

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MINK PRINTEER

Disney:

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Think Outside the Box

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Welcome to the Revolution

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Disruptive Game Changers:

– Digital Revolution Early Apple ad: “create dazzling color displays” and

“invent your own Pong games”

What’s the Internet?

Why would I need a Smart Phone?

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Wohlers & Markets&Markets:

– 2012: $2.2 B / 28.6% 2020: $8B

– 2014: 34.9% 2021: 10.8B

– 2015: $4B

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Allied Market Research:

–2013: $46B

–2021: $175B

My Vision

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My Vision

Within Control

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My Vision

Within Control – Multi-function

machines Any functionality

“We want our machines to make anything” in 5 years

Epson

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My Vision



– Radically different L&F

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My Vision




– Complement SM

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom

– Flourishing economies

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom


Away from Control

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom


Away from Control – Any design, any time

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom



– iFactory/3D Assembler

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom



– iFactory/3D Assembler Every home

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom




Any functionality

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom




Any functionality

Easy as a breadmaker

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My Vision




– Complement SM

– Every classroom



– iFactory Every home

Any functionality

Easy as a breadmaker

– IP increasingly irrelevant

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When?

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten”

Bill Gates

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Will we be Ready?

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Will we be Ready?

“a substantial portion of manufacturers may be caught off-guard by the rapid changes underway”

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Takeaways

Everything will change

–When you can make anything

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Takeaways

Everything will change

–When you can make anything

IP, it’s not dead yet!

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Thank you for your time! [email protected]

www.finnegan.com

FOLLOW MY TWEETS: @ JHornick3D1Stop

http://www.finnegan.com/

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Disclaimer These materials are public information and have been prepared solely for educational and entertainment purposes to contribute to the understanding of U.S. intellectual property law. These materials reflect only the personal views of the authors and are not a source of legal advice. It is understood that each case is fact specific, and that the appropriate solution in any case will vary. Therefore, these materials may or may not be relevant to any particular situation. Thus, the authors and Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP cannot be bound either philosophically or as representatives of their various present and future clients to the comments expressed in these materials. The presentation of these materials does not establish any form of attorney-client relationship with the authors or Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP. While every attempt was made to ensure that these materials are accurate, errors or omissions may be contained therein, for which any liability is disclaimed.

John Hornick_Inside3DPrintingHK

Technology

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