Dr. Lucy Fallon-Byrne April 2013 Department of Social Protection, Ireland.
John Byrne April 26, 2010
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Transcript of John Byrne April 26, 2010
John ByrneApril 26, 2010
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
A CLIMATE POLICY CHALLENGE
ACTING BEYOND THE ELECTION – MEDIA CYCLE
Modernized AtmosphereModernized Atmosphere
HCFC-22 CF4
Pre-industrial ConcentrationPre-industrial Concentration
Concentration in 2009Concentration in 2009
Rate of ConcentrationChange*
Rate of ConcentrationChange*Atmospheric lifetime (years)Atmospheric lifetime (years)
1.5 ppmv/yr
CO2
~280 ppmv
390 ppmv
0.4 %/yr
50 - 200
CH4
~700 ppbv
1790 ppbv
10 ppbv/yr
0.6 %/yr
12
N2O
~275 ppbv
340 ppbv
0.8 ppbv/yr
0.25 %/yr
120
CFC-11
zero
260 pptv
0 pptv/yr
0 %/yr
50
zero
110 pptv
5 pptv/yr
5 %/yr
12
zero
70 pptv
1.2 pptv/yr
2 %/yr
50,000
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
* The growth rates of CO2, CH4, and N2O are averaged over 25 years beginning in 1984; halocarbon growth rates are based on recent years.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)
Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)
U.S
. En
erg
y P
ric
e In
cre
as
esU
.S. E
ne
rgy
Pri
ce
Incr
ea
ses
75%75%
125%125%
150%150%
175%175%
200%200%
225%225%
250%250%
275%275%
300%300%
20002000 20022002 20042004 20062006 20082008 20102010 20122012 20142014 20162016 20182018 20202020
NGNG
GasolineGasoline
Heating OilHeating Oil
ElectricityElectricity
Yr 2000Yr 2000PricePrice
Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009)
Energy Expenditures as % of US GDPEnergy Expenditures as % of US GDP
9.8% of GDP in 2008Highest in 25 yrs
9.8% of GDP in 2008Highest in 25 yrs
Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
Coal NG Oil Nuclear Large Hydro Renewables Needed E-E & Conservation
MORE US RENEWABLES…alone…WILL NOT REALIZE 60% LESSMORE US RENEWABLES…alone…WILL NOT REALIZE 60% LESS
CO2 Emissions as a % of US 1990 LevelsCO2 Emissions as a % of US 1990 LevelsAll EnergyAll EnergyElectricityElectricity
3,789 TWh3,789 TWh
51.9%
15.9%2.9%
19.9%
7.3%
2.1%
5,201 TWh5,201 TWh
14.8%
7,087 TWh7,087 TWh
42.3%
123%123%126%126%
20002000
104%104%123%123%
20252025
50%50%
128%128%
20502050
Assumptions: 1) US renewables grow at 2X the experience rate of Germany (currently the fastest in the world); 2) phaseout all coal power plants by 2050; 3) US electricity demand grows at 2% per yr (EIA); 4) energy efficiency improvement of 0.9%/yr (EIA).
Assumptions: 1) US renewables grow at 2X the experience rate of Germany (currently the fastest in the world); 2) phaseout all coal power plants by 2050; 3) US electricity demand grows at 2% per yr (EIA); 4) energy efficiency improvement of 0.9%/yr (EIA).
21.2%1.7%
4.1%
30.6%9.6%
44.6%
4.8%0.5%
5.6%
20.1%
24% of Supply
24% of Supply
53% of Supply
53% of Supply
IPCC Estimate of Needed Cut
Delawareans use 45% more electricity than
Californians
United StatesCaliforniaDelaware
Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2007
EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2008, 2000, 1990
US ENERGY OBESITY
--2525
--1515
--55
55
1515
2525
Needed Emission Reductions
Other*Renewable EnergySustainable Land Use & Transport PlanningElectric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements
Non-Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements
New Emissions Above 1990
* Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including: carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclear power plant designs.
Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation of Climate Change.
Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004.
* Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including: carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclear power plant designs.
Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation of Climate Change.
Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004.
2.5 (10%)2.5 (10%)
GT
CO
2-e
GT
CO
2-e
7.2 (30%)7.2 (30%)4.24.2
7.87.8 12.0(51%) 12.0(51%)
19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030
23.723.7
IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options
2.0 ( 9%)2.0 ( 9%)
Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model
What can we do todayIn Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can meet energy needs, not by building new power plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing solar panels]…creating a market…for the verifiable energy savings they produce.
Testimony of John D. Podesta before Vice President Biden's Middle Class Task Force February 27, 2009
State and Local Governments Innovate to Cut Energy Waste February 11, 2010
An alternative plan
Delaware's Sustainable Energy Utility fits into a larger national movement away from the traditional way of doing programs with utilities in charge. The alternative plan…is to reshape the business: Make it possible…to profit from efficiency, not just from selling electrons… The model also works for renewable energy.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
Shifting from the Economics of Obesity to SustainabilityFebruary 22, 2010
Clean energy, green jobs
The SEU is uniquely suited to create sustainable jobs. Investments in onsite renewables can produce 2-5 times as many new, permanent jobs as those in conventional energy. Invest-ments in energy efficiency and conservation could generate 3-4 times as many new jobs.
JOBS: The Clean Technology Advantage
Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable Energy. REPP. 2001. London School of Economics (LSE) and the information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). The UK’s Digital Road to Recovery. 2009. ICT job creation does not include ‘network effects.’
Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested
ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION 12-15
Solar Electric (PV) 15.7
COAL PLANTS 4
RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19
Smart/Green Buildings 14.7
Air Insulation 12.0
Solar Thermal 19.0
Wind 11.9
Geothermal 10.5
INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY 18-26
High-Speed Broadband 26.4
Smart Grid 21.7
Intelligent Transport 17.7
& Smart
^
• RGGI CARBON AUCTION PROCEEDS
• EERS – 15% Cut in Electric Sales by 2015
• RPS – 20% of Electric Sales from REs by 2019
• ARRA FUNDS – Rebates & Loans
• GREEN ENERGY SAVNGS BOND
SEU IMPACTS 8 MOS. ~ $27 m5 YRS. > $85 m10 YRS. > $130 m
TTOP OP DDOWNOWN
TTARGETSARGETS
AA F FOREWORD FOR OREWORD FOR AACTIONCTION
BBOTTOM OTTOM UUP P
SSOUSTAINABILITYOUSTAINABILITY