Joe Cortright Talent Dividend Metrics

Talent Dividend MetricsA Progress Report

Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010

Joe Cortright

April 2010

Roadmap

1. The Talent Dividend Calculation

2. Four Key Metrics

3. Years of Post Secondary Education

4. Dynamics: Migration, Retirement


4. Dynamics: Migration, Retirement

5. Next Steps

Talent


The Hypothesis

• Better educated metropolitan areas have higher incomes

• Better skilled workers are more innovative and productive


and productive

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Raleigh-Cary, NC

Austin-Round Rock, TX Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Denver-Aurora, CO

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-Baltimore-Tow son, MD

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Columbus, OH

Kansas City, MO-KS Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Richmond, VA Rochester, NY

Salt Lake City, UT Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA


Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA Indianapolis-Carmel, IN

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Milw aukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA St. Louis, MO-IL

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL

Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytow n, TX Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

Pittsburgh, PA Cincinnati-Middletow n, OH-KY-IN

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-New port New s, VA-NC Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY

Oklahoma City, OK Birmingham-Hoover, AL

Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA

Jacksonville, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater, FL

San Antonio, TX Memphis, TN-MS-AR

Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

Four Year College

Attainment Rate

The EvidenceEducation Explains Most Differences in Metro IncomeAnnual Per Capita Income, 2005

HAR DEN

BALSAN

MIN

SEA

HOU PHI

NY

y = 763.27x + 16466$44,000

$46,000

$48,000

$50,000


NO

RAL

ROC

SLC

BIR

BUF

OKC

RIC

LOUMEM

JAC NAS

AUS

MIL

CHA

PRI

VB

IND

COL

LV

SAT

KC

ORL

SACCLECIN POR

PIT

BAL

TPA

STL

SAN

PHO

DET

ATL

MIADAL

CHI

LA

y = 763.27x + 16466

R2 = 0.5846

$30,000

$32,000

$34,000

$36,000

$38,000

$40,000

$42,000

$44,000

15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Percent of Population with a 4-Year College Degree, 2006

Sources: BEA (Income), Census (Education)

Estimating the Gain

• Each 1% improvement in college attainment is associated with a $763 increase in per capita income for the entire metropolitan area


metropolitan area

• These education gains are the product of a shift in the entire skill distribution, not just moving 1% past the 4 year mark

Make progress at every stage


Additional Evidence for the Talent Dividend

• President’s Council of Economic Advisors

• Unemployment Rate Differential in the Great Recession


Educational Gains Stagnating


For decades, the number of educated American workers grew fasterthan did the demand for them. But beginning with the cohort that completedits schooling in the early 1970s, the growth rate in the supply of educatedAmericans slowed significantly.

Least well educated metros have highest unemployment rates


“Social Returns” to Education


Ed Glaeser: Well-educated metro’s had lower unemployment rates than explained by individual educational attainment. Poorly educated metros had unemployment rates 1.8 times higher than explained by individual levels of education.

2. Metrics for improving attainment

• High School Completion

• College Continuation


• College Continuation

• Adult Post-Secondary Education

• College Completion

Different Sources of Data

– Institutional

• Enrollment records

• Generated by schools

• Aggregated by others (NCES, NCHEMS, NSC)


– Population

• Survey data

• Gathered by Census Bureau

• Covers entire population; sampling variability

Institutional Measures

• Administrative records from educational institutions

– Diplomas, Enrollment

• Reported to and aggregated by national


• Reported to and aggregated by national organizations

– NCES, National Student Clearinghouse

• High coverage/ Can drill down; but can be vague and anomalous

High School Completion

• Cumulative Promotion Index

• Product of high school grade level success rates:

– [(9th to 10th %) x (10th to 11th %) x (11th to 12th)


– [(9th to 10th %) x (10th to 11th %) x (11th to 12th)

% x (12th to Diploma %)]

• If 90% are promoted each year

– CPI= .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65.1%

• Computed from NCES data

High School Graduation Rates(CPI Method)

WAS

CIN

PDX

DET

SAC

IND

NY

BAL PHI


BAL PHI

MEM RIC KC

VBN RAL ROC

HOU RIV DEN NAS

ATL OKC LOU MIL

SLC AUS STL SDO

JFL BIR CLE SEA

TSP LA SJO DFW CHI MSP

PHX LV MIA CHA ORL COL SAT SFO BUF

35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85%

Source: Computed from NCES/CCD

College Completion

• Institutions report 6-year graduation rate for four-year institutions

• Data reported by institutions, tabulated by IPEDS


IPEDS

• We sum by metro area, weighting institutional rates by enrollment for four-year institutions.

College Graduation RatesSDO

COL

LA

SEA

RIC SAC

STL ORL

ATL CLE ROC

JFL BUF AUS

TSP NAS BOS


TSP NAS BOS

MIA VBN BAL

PDX RIV PHI

OKC CIN HAR

DFW NY RAL

DET NOLA CHA PIT

SLC IND BIR PRO

MEM LOU MIL SFO

LV KC CHI SAT

PHX HOU DEN WAS MSP SJO

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Source: Computed from IPEDS

National Student Clearinghouse


Population Measures

• Data from American Community Survey

• Two Questions:

– Attendance

– Attainment


– Attainment

• Asked of 1% Sample Annually

• Use 3-year 2006-2008 pooled sample

MicroData Tabulations


ACS Attendance Question


The ACS Attainment Question


Question

High School Completion (on time)

• What percent of 19 year olds report having received a high school diploma or GED?

• Census question makes no distinction between diploma and GED


between diploma and GED

College Continuation

• What proportion of 18 to 24 year olds who have completed high school are enrolled in college?


College Enrollment

SAT

PDX

CHA

HOU

MEM LA SJO

TSP CIN ROC

Percent of 18-24 Year Olds Attending Post-Secondary Education


TSP CIN ROC

SEA CLE NAS BUF

SLC SDO WAS PIT

IND BAL MIL PRO

DFW RIC STL HAR

LOU SAC OKC COL

KC BIR MIA AUS

PHX ORL DET PHI

JFL VBN NOLA CHI SFO RAL

LV DEN RIV ATL MSP NY BOS

25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%

Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008

Adult Post-Secondary Education

• What proportion of 25-44 year olds, who have completed high school, but do not have a bachelor’s degree, attended college classes?


college classes?

Adult Enrollment and AgeEnrollment Declines with AgePercent of Persons with Less than a BA Degree Attending College Classes, by Age

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Att

en

din

g C

oll

eg

e C

las

se

s


R2 = 0.983

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Age

Att

en

din

g C

oll

eg

e C

las

se

s


Adult Post-Secondary Attendance

RIC

KC LA

PRO TSP

PHX RAL

PIT RIV

25 to 44 Year Olds with No Four-Year Degree Attending Post-Secondary Classes


PIT RIV

MIL LOU ORL

ROC BOS CHI SEA PDX

NY PHI HOU COL MIA SAT SJO

DFW NAS ATL AUS HAR CLE WAS OKC

NOLA CHA CIN MSP STL JFL BAL SLC VBN

LV BIR BUF DEN IND MEM DET SFO SDO SAC

5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5%


College Completion

• What percent of 24 year olds report having received a four-year college degree?


College Completion

CHA

BOS

ROC

IND

OKC

BAL

DEN

ATL

PRO

24 Year Olds with a Four-year degree or higher


PRO

SEA

CLE CHI

SDO CIN MIL

DFW PDX HAR BUF

DET RIC BIR MSP

SAC TSP ORL NAS NY

LV PHX LA STL COL

SAT NOLA MEM SJO PHI

SLC HOU MIA SFO PIT

RIV VBN JFL LOU AUS KC WAS RAL

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%


Making Use of the Data

• Where am is my region strong and weak?

• Who is doing better that I might learn from?

• Are there special conditions that affect


• Are there special conditions that affect local performance?

Years of Post-Secondary Education

• Four-year degree attainment rate is too simple to capture the “size” of the Talent Dividend challenge

• How much additional education is needed


• How much additional education is needed to raise the attanment rate?

YPSE Weights

Value Years of PSE

High school graduate, or Less 0

Some college, less than 1 year .5


One or more years of college but no degree 1.2

Associate degree 2

Bachelor's degree 4

Master's degree 5

Professional degree 5

Doctorate degree 7

YPSE v. 4 year attainmentYears of Post-Secondary Education Correlates with BA Attainment

y = 0.2097x - 0.0634

R2 = 0.9763

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

BA

Att

ain

me

nt

Ra

te


0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

YPSE: Years of Post-Secondary Education

BA

Att

ain

me

nt

Ra

te


How much effort?

• Years of Post-Secondary Education

• Portland: About 100,000 person years of additional post-secondary education to raise the four-year college attainment rate


raise the four-year college attainment rate by 1 percentage point.

Adding Dynamics

• Our talent measures are “snapshots”

• We need to account for movement in and out of the working population

• Movement in time: Retirements


• Movement in time: Retirements

• Movement in space: Migration

Dynamics

• Migration

– Workers are constantly moving in and out of every metropolitan area

• Retirement


• Retirement

– Young people are entering the labor force

– Older workers are reaching retirement age

Migration

• About 2.7 million working age persons with four-year degrees move to a different metropolitan area each year


Talent Migration *

PHI

CHI JFL

MIL BAL LOU SLC

PRO CIN VBN DFW TSP

NY BUF SFO PIT PDX

Net In-Migration of Working Aged Adults with a Four-year Degree


NY BUF SFO PIT PDX

HAR IND WAS ATL PHX

ROC BOS NAS SDO SAT RAL

MEM ORL COL SJO HOU CHA LV

NOLA DET LA MSP KC RIC SAC RIV SEA AUS

-1% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5%

* Not adjusted for international out-migration


Retirement: Boomer Talent Exodus

Number of College Educated Leaving Will More than Double

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Co

lleg

e E

du

cate

d P

ers

on

s T

urn

ing

65


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Year

Co

lleg

e E

du

cate

d P

ers

on

s T

urn

ing

65

Retirement Rate Rising Everywhere

PHINY

CINHOUSJOPDXBIR

PROSEADETDENCHIKC

BOSNASMEMDFW

MILMSPCOLINDRALCHAAUSATL

Last Five Years

Next Five Years


0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

LVTSPMIA

PHXROCRIV

SACSATJFL

OKCSDOORL

LACLEBUFSFOHARNOLBALLOUSLCSTLVBN

WASPITRICPHI

% BA+ Reaching Retirement

Percent of Working Aged Adults with a Four-Year Degree or Higher Reaching Retirement Age


• Career counseling – getting employers involved in supporting college career paths

• Social marketing

• How to account for non-traditional, part-time students

• Value of liberal arts in synergy with vocational

• 2 and 4-year institutions working together; also reconciling data on 2-yr 4-yr grad rates

• Long term pipeline balance with short term results of TD


• Long term pipeline balance with short term results of TD

• Race and ethnicity; come up with better language

• Tension between TD as initiative and goal; define short-term strategies to help get big-wins; speed as theme with prototyping as strategy

• Compounding value of doing the 1%

• Where are the gaps that business community should take on.

Typical Improvement

• Can we move Portland (33.3% college attainment to the same level as

• San Diego (34.2%) or Atlanta (34.6%) college attainment?


college attainment?

• The Portland Talent Dividend

$1.6 Billion Annually

Share of 18 to 24 Year Olds Attending College

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Raleigh-Durham

Percent of 18 to 24 year old residents enrolled in college


Portland

Las Vegas

Joe Cortright Talent Dividend Metrics

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