JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing - nata.aero nata susan brogan nov 13 2013 rev1.pdfJETNET iQ...

JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing

Susan L. Brogan JETNET iQ Director, Special Programs Tel: 703-298-1112 [email protected]

2 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐

NATA 2013

2013 GDP Forecasts & “Top 20” Jet Fleets

!323!! !167!! !162!! !119!! !185!! !130!!!788!! !819!! !516!!

!11,603!!

!210!!!556!!

!172!! !261!! !441!! !237!! !219!! !156!! !129!! !146!!

7.5%!

5.0%!4.3%!

3.5%!

2.4%! 2.2%!1.9%! 1.7%! 1.7%! 1.6%! 1.4%! 1.3%!

1.0%! 0.8%!0.5%! 0.4%!

/0.1%!

/0.9%!/1.6%! /1.8%!

/4.0%!

/2.0%!

0.0%!

2.0%!

4.0%!

6.0%!

8.0%!

!/!!!!

!2,000!!

!4,000!!

!6,000!!

!8,000!!

!10,000!!

!12,000!!

!14,000!!

China!&!Hon

g!Ko

ng! India!

Argen

?na

!

Saud

i!Arabia!

Australia!

Russian

!Fede

ra?on

!

Brazil!

Mexico!

Cana

da!

United!States!

Switzerlan

d!

United!Kingdo

m!

South!Africa!

Vene

zuela!

Germany!

Austria!

Fran

ce!

Portugal!

Spain!

Italy! !R

eal!G

DP!Growth!Forecast!for!20

13!(B

LUE!Line

)!

Business!Jet!Fleet!(units)!/!Sep

t.!30,!2013!(RED

!Bars)!

2013!GDP!Forecasts!and!"Top!20"!Business!Jet!Fleets!!

Markets(with(3.0%+(GDP(growth(represent(only(4%(of(the(world(business(jet(fleet(


NATA 2013

7.7%$

3.2%$

5.1%$

2.5%$

3.7%$

3.4%$

0.9%$

3.6%$

1.7%$

2.8%$

1.0%$

0.2%$

5.6%$

0.9%$

0.9%$

0.0%$

.0.6%$

.1.6%$

.2.4%$

.3.2%$

7.5%$

5.0%$

3.5%$

1.9%$

2.4%$

2.2%$

2.0%$

1.7%$

1.7%$

1.6%$

1.4%$

1.3%$

0.8%$

0.5%$

0.4%$

.0.1%$

.0.5%$

.1.6%$

.1.8%$

.1.9%$

China$

India$

Saudi$Arabia$

South$Africa$

Australia$

Russia$

Brazil$

Mexico$

Canada$

United$States$

Switzerland$

United$Kingdom$

Venezuela$

Germany$

Austria$

France$

Euro$Area$

Spain$

Italy$

Portugal$

2012$GDP$and$2013$GDP$Forecast$$Key$Business$Avia:on$Markets$

2013F$GDP$

2012$GDP$

2012 GDP and 2013 GDP Forecasts

649$Jets$$in$2013$

745$Jets$$in$2014$

801$Jets$$in$2015$

0"

200"

400"

600"

800"

1000"

1200"

1400"

1600"

1800"

$0"

$200"

$400"

$600"

$800"

$1,000"

$1,200"

$1,400"

$1,600"

$1,800"

1990"

1991"

1992"

1993"

1994"

1995"

1996"

1997"

1998"

1999"

2000"

2001"

2002"

2003"

2004"

2005"

2006"

2007"

2008"

2009"

2010"

2011"

2012"

2013"

2014"

2015"

2016"

2017"

2018"

2019"

World$Deliveries$(units)$<$Lagged$2$Years$

U.S.$C

orpo

rate$Profits$AIer$Tax$($

US$Billion

s)$<$With$IVA$and

$CCA

$

U.S.$Corporate$Profits$and$Worldwide$Business$Jet$Deliveries$(Lagged$2$Years)$1990$<$2013,$including$2013<2015$JETNET$iQ$Business$Jet$Delivery$Forecast$

(2013$Corporate$Profits$thru$Q2$2013$at$annual$rates)$

U.S."Corporate"Profits"

World"Business"Jet"Deliveries"

U.S. Corporate Profits & Jet Deliveries


NATA 2013

Business Jet Deliveries (units)

1" 1" 20" 22" 11" 40"

212"

323"

141"

229"211"

118"84"

173"

253"305"287"

247"302"

333"397"

473"

556"

465"

288"324"297"

212"221"218"264"264"250"251"265"254"

317"307"

436"502"

636"

747"790"

727"

545"589"

706"

854"

1093"

1274"

928"

803"

684"674"

362"

1957"

1960"

1961"

1962"

1963"

1964"

1965"

1966"

1967"

1968"

1969"

1970"

1971"

1972"

1973"

1974"

1975"

1976"

1977"

1978"

1979"

1980"

1981"

1982"

1983"

1984"

1985"

1986"

1987"

1988"

1989"

1990"

1991"

1992"

1993"

1994"

1995"

1996"

1997"

1998"

1999"

2000"

2001"

2002"

2003"

2004"

2005"

2006"

2007"

2008"

2009"

2010"

2011"

2012"

2013"

Jet"Deliveries"

18%$CAGR$2003,2008$

22%$CAGR$1996,2001$

18%$CAGR$1976,1981$

Down%%48%%

Down%%49%%

Down%%31%%


NATA 2013

1" 8" 5" 10"13" 5" 16"26"

48"30"17"26"31"

110"162"

301"

202"187"

158"169"198"

337"315"

297"

403"

452"

587"609"

775"

903"

566"

329"

285"

416"

208"210"229"

286"258"

234"215"

235"

152"

256"266"273"

306"326"340"

382"

283"294"

354"352"

418"435"

526"

464"

391"362"

325"

219"

1952"

1953"

1954"

1955"

1956"

1957"

1958"

1959"

1960"

1961"

1962"

1963"

1964"

1965"

1966"

1967"

1968"

1969"

1970"

1971"

1972"

1973"

1974"

1975"

1976"

1977"

1978"

1979"

1980"

1981"

1982"

1983"

1984"

1985"

1986"

1987"

1988"

1989"

1990"

1991"

1992"

1993"

1994"

1995"

1996"

1997"

1998"

1999"

2000"

2001"

2002"

2003"

2004"

2005"

2006"

2007"

2008"

2009"

2010"

2011"

2012"

2013"

20%$CAGR:$1975.1981$

14%$CAGR:$1994.2001$

15%$CAGR:$2005.2008$

Down%%68%%

Down%%37%%

Business Turboprop Deliveries (units)


NATA 2013

Pre-Owned Business Aircraft Inventory

0%#

2%#

4%#

6%#

8%#

10%#

12%#

14%#

16%#

18%#

20%#

#)####

#500##

#1,000##

#1,500##

#2,000##

#2,500##

#3,000##

#3,500##

2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013#

Business#Jets#and#Turboprops#for#sale#Oct#2006#)##Oct#2013#

##of#Jets#for#sale# ##of#Turboprops#for#sale# %#of#Jets#for#sale# %#of#Turboprops#for#sale#

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Business/Jets 12.4% 11.2% 13.8% 17.1% 15.1% 13.8% 13.5% 13.2%Turboprop 8.7% 8.1% 9.4% 11.4% 10.7% 10.1% 8.5% 7.7%

Jets/Available/for/Sale/as/%/of/World/Fleet/(as/of/October/1)


NATA 2013

!"!!!!

!1,000,000!!

!2,000,000!!

!3,000,000!!

!4,000,000!!

!5,000,000!!

!6,000,000!!

2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013!

Business'Jet'U+liza+on'(Cycles)'

USA!

Europe!

Business Jet Utilization


NATA 2013

United'States Europe

Business'Jet'UtilizationTrailing'12'Months'Through'Aug.'2013

Trailing'12'Months'Through'Sept.'2013

Total'Business'Jet'Cycles 4,021,982 507,704Change'vs.'Prior'Month 0.2% 0.0%Change'vs.'Prior'Year 1.3% K2.1%Change'vs.'2'Years'Ago 1.4% K6.5%

49.1%& 52.7%& 47.7%& 49.7%& 53.3%&

26.9%&25.8%&

25.0%&28.4%&

28.9%&

24.0%& 21.4%&27.3%& 21.9%& 17.8%&

All#Respondents# Turboprop#Operators#

Small#Jet#Operators#

Medium#Jet#Operators#

Large#Jet#Operators#

Past#low#point# At#low#point# Not#reached#low#point#Q3 2013 Survey

Where is the Business Avia/on Industry In the Current Business Cycle?


NATA 2013

Q3 2013 Survey

6.1%% 5.7%%

4.6%% 4.4%% 4.0%% 4.0%% 3.8%%3.3%%

FALCON%2000% GULFSTREAM%G:550%

CHALLENGER%300%

PILATUS%PC:12%CITATION%CJ3% CITATION%SOVEREIGN%

EMBRAER%PHENOM%300%

KING%AIR%200%

Top%8%models%:%worldwide%%"Best%value%for%dollar"%

Which aircra8 brand / model has the best value for the dollar?


NATA 2013

Business aircra8 brand expected to show the most improvement over the next 5-‐10 years

7.6%%

2.4%%

4.2%%

5.4%%

6.2%%

6.2%%

13.2%%

15.8%%

17.8%%

21.2%%

Others'

Hawker'

Pilatus'

Beechcra2'

HondaJet'

Dassault'Falcon'

Gulfstream'

Bombardier'

Cessna'

Embraer'

Brand%expected%to%show%the%most%improvement%over%the%next%5=10%years%


NATA 2013

Q3 2013 Survey

World Fleet

Small%Jets%42.1%%

Medium%Jets%33.1%%

Large%Jets%24.8%%

New Business Jet Purchase Intentions Purchases -‐ Next 12 Months

Purchases -‐ Next 1-‐5 years

Q3 2013 Survey

Small%Jets%27.5%%

Medium%Jets%46.2%%

Large%Jets%26.4%%

Small%Jets%27.3%%

Medium%Jets%41.8%%

Large%Jets%30.9%%


NATA 2013

1.1%$

4.3%$

5.0%$

5.1%$

6.2%$

6.7%$

7.7%$

8.5%$

10.6%$

11.6%$

12.8%$

20.5%$

Other&

Public&opinion&of&business&avia4on&

Using&alterna4ve&flight&solu4ons&(charter,&commercial,&jet&card,&frac4onal,&etc.)&

Will&get&a&be@er&deal&on&a&new&business&aircraB&if&I&wait&a&year&

Availability&of&financing&or&capital&for&purchase&

No&compelling&aircraB&that&meet&my&organiza4on's&needs&

Opera4ng&cost&too&high&

Decline&in&business&ac4vity&

Inability&to&sell&current&aircraB&

Purchase&price&or&tradeKup&cost&too&high&

Uncertainty&about&economy&/&regulatory&environment&

Do&not&need&addi4onal&aircraB&

Purchase$inhibitors$Aircraft Purchase Inhibitors

Q3 2013 Survey Top 3 Inhibitors – Weighted Average

“Which of the following factors are most likely to prevent or delay your

organizaQon from purchasing a business aircraR over the

next 12 months?”


NATA 2013

Expected change in pre-‐owned prices for 10-‐15 year-‐old aircra8 – next 24 months

By Respondent Region

!1.7%&

!3.4%& !3.5%&

!2.7%&

!7.1%&

!6.4%&

!7.2%&!7.6%&

!4.8%&

!7.7%&

!6.8%&

!5.2%&

!6.4%&

!7.3%&

!6.3%&

!4.7%&

Turboprops& Small&Jets& Medium&Jets& Large&Jets&

Selling&Price&ExpectaEons&by&Size&Category&and&Region&

North&America& LaEn&America&&&Caribbean& Europe& Rest&of&World&

Q3 2013 Survey


NATA 2013

Business Jet Delivery History & Forecast

November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐

NATA 2013 15

0"

200"

400"

600"

800"

1000"

1200"

1400"

2003"

2004"

2005"

2006"

2007"

2008"

2009"

2010"

2011"

2012"

2013F"

2014F"

2015F"

2016F"

2017F"

2018F"

2019F"

2020F"

2021F"

2022F"

Deliveries"(units)"

Business"jet"deliveries"<"historical"and"forecast"by"size"category:"2003"<"2022"

Personal"Jet" Very"Light"Jet" Light"Jet" Super"Light"Jet" Mid<Size"Jet"

Super"Mid<Size"Jet" Large"Jet" Large"Long<Range"Jet" Large"Ultra"Long<Range"Jet" Airline"Business"Jet"

Deliveries"2013<2022:""9,094"units"

0"

100"

200"

300"

400"

500"

600"

700"

800"

900"

1000"

2003"

2004"

2005"

2006"

2007"

2008"

2009"

2010"

2011"

2012"

2013F"

2014F"

2015F"

Deliveries"(units)"

Business"jet"deliveries"<"historical"and"forecast"by"size"category:"2003"<"2015"(excluding"Very"Light"Jets)"

Light"Jet" Super"Light"Jet" Mid<Size"Jet" Super"Mid<Size"Jet" Large"Jet" Large"Long<Range"Jet" Large"Ultra"Long<Range"Jet" Airline"Business"Jet"

About JETNET iQ Launched in January 2011, JETNET iQ is a forecasting and premium advisory service for the business aviation market, designed to help customers “Know More”. Available on an annual subscription basis, JETNET iQ has 3 main elements: 1) JETNET iQ REPORTS are the definitive analytical reference for the business aviation industry, incorporating state-of-the-industry analyses, proprietary aircraft owner/operator surveys, and detailed 10-year delivery and fleet forecasts, updated quarterly. 2) JETNET iQ SUMMITS provide fast-paced thought-provoking insights into the state of the industry, and unique networking opportunities. 3) JETNET iQ RESEARCH serves the needs of customers with unique requirements for research and analysis on a project-by-project basis. For more information on JETNET iQ, log on to www.jetnetiq.com or contact Rolland Vincent, JETNET iQ Creator/Director at 1-972-439-2069 or [email protected].


NATA 2013 16

About JETNET Since 1988, JETNET has delivered the most comprehensive and reliable business aircraft research to its exclusive clientele of aviation professionals worldwide. JETNET is the ultimate source for information and intelligence on the worldwide business, commercial, and helicopter aircraft fleet and marketplace, comprised of some 100,000 airframes. Headquartered in its state-of-the-art facility in Utica, NY, JETNET offers comprehensive user-friendly aircraft data via real-time internet access or regular updates. For more information on JETNET LLC log on to jetnet.com or contact Paul Cardarelli, JETNET Vice President of Sales, at 1-800-553-8638 (USA) or [email protected]; International inquiries, contact Karim Derbala, JETNET Managing Director of Global Sales, at 41.0.43.243.7056 or [email protected]


NATA 2013 17

JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing - nata.aero nata susan brogan nov 13 2013 rev1.pdfJETNET iQ...

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