VALIDATION OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS WITH USE

OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS – EUMETSAT H-SAF ACTIVITIES

Jerzy NiedbałaInstitute of Meteorology and Water ManagementHydrological Forecasting Office

Jan SadońInstitute of Meteorology and Water Management

Piotr StruzikInstitute of Meteorology and Water ManagementSatellite Research Department

Whole H-SAF Team contributed

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, POLAND, Krakow

EUMETSAT H-SAF – Satellite Application Facility in Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management

Remained:

3. IMWM Poland - data sources for hydrological models.

4. Hydrological cycle and information needed for modelling of processes.

5. Hydrological models, thier requirements and possible use of satellite data – outcome of H-SAF (Cluster 4) activities.

6. H-SAF Validation programme (precipitation products):

- Conventional validation,

- Hydrological impact studies.

7. Solving the problem of spatial and temporal resolution.

8. Conclusions

Presentation outline:1. EUMETSAT SAFs – already presented by Thomas Heinemann.2. H-SAF overview – already presented by Bizzaro Bizzari.

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Kraków, PolandHydrological Forecasting OfficeSatellite Research Department

EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility in Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF)

Activities:

• Operational hydrology – forecasting and warning

• Operational receiving, processing and distribution of satellite products to the users in IMWM network.

• Research and implementation of satellite products in meteorology, hydrology, agrometeorology…

• H-SAF activities officially started (15 Sept.2005) – development phase 2005-2010, 12 European countries involved. Poland coordinates Hydrological Validation and implementation cluster.

Fig. 28 - Composite image from all Polish radars.

8 radars

989 telemetric posts

IMWM

Poland

METEOSAT (7,8,9)

NOAA (all)FengYun 1D

Ready for Metop60 Synop

152 Climate

978 Raingauges

196 Snow obs. posts

Lightning detection

SAFIR

NWP:

LM-COSMO, ALADIN

Main activities of operational hydrology is closely related with use of forecasting hydrological models, which convert meteorological inputs, hydrological inputs and parameters characterising cachment to discharges in streams and rivers.

Use of such a models is also part of flood warning systems, which determine risk of flood according to forecasted hydrograms.

Generally most of hydrological models are deterministic, based on physical equations describing water fluxes and energy exchange. Many models used in operational practise are still conceptual, semiempirical or empirical.

Well-designed, distributed network that measure temperature, precipitation (rainfall and snowfall), snowpack, soil moisture, vegetation properties, radiation, wind, evaporative flux and humidity contribute to the quality of hydrological forecasts.

Operational Hydrology and modelling

Development of flash flood as a result of severe storm (Switzerland)

Hydrological processes are frequently rapid and dangerous

Well informed people do not panic even in extreme conditions

Proper information and warning is highly required

• Classic hydrological models have been optimised for use with point observations (such as precipitation and streamflow) and were inadequate for extension to data assimilation, which is distributed in space.

• We observe consequent exchange of hydrological models used operationally from models, which can accept only point data to the models based on gridded information.

• An improved higher resolution of observed data will decrease the uncertainty of hydrological model predictions.

• Remote sensing data should bring new type of information (both qualitative and quantitative) accepted by hydrological models.

Development in operational hydrology and resulted demands for better input data

- grid basedA model structure based on regular finegrids, matching the resolution of theother spatial data, is much to be preferred. -based on HRU’s (Hydrological Response Units) Data are spatially aggregated giving mean values for Hydrological Responce Units (HRU).

-lumped subcatchment is another alternative frequentlyused in operational hydrology.

Satellite information (depending of instrument used) has frequently not adequate spatial and temporal resolutions – down/up scaling and merging with other data sources is required

Space structure of model levels.Preprocessing of data is required to fit input variables to model

resolution.

Different scales of data processing in typical levels of hydrological model

Impact studies

Hydrological cycle vs. satellite products

EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility in Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF)

H-SAF bottom-up aproachRequirements driven by operational hydrology needs.

Creation of operational satellite products for:-Better spatialisation of conventional measurements,-To complement ground observations on the areas with sparse ground networks and/or not covered by radars,- Merging satellite products with other data sources,- Redundancy of information - useful in case of disaster situation (damage of measuring posts or data links)

Final assessment of satellite products to be done by Hydrological Impact Studies.

Demonstration and training on satellite products use, in real operational environment of State Hydrological Services

Logic of the incremental development scheme

End-userfeedback

Augmenteddatabases

Advancedalgorithms

Newinstruments

Initialdatabases

Baselinealgorithms

Currentinstruments

Cal/valprogramme

Version-1 Version-2 Final VersionPrototyping

Operational End-users and Hydrological validation programme

2007Inter

Consortium beta product

delivering

H-SAF activities on satellite products validation

Cluster 1

Precipitation products

Cluster 2

Soil Moisture products

Cluster 3

Snow products

ClassicalValidation.Comparison to ground measurements.

Hydrological impact studies

BelgiumGermanyHungaryItalyPolandSlovakiaTurkey

AustriaFranceECMWF

FinlandGermanyPolandTurkeyRomania

Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey

At least 24 catchments, 14 operational models

• to to establish the plans of the hydrological institutes for establish the plans of the hydrological institutes for performing the impact studies soon after start of the regular performing the impact studies soon after start of the regular products distributionproducts distribution..

• The objective of the Hydrological validation programme is to The objective of the Hydrological validation programme is to independently assess the benefit of the novel satellite-derived independently assess the benefit of the novel satellite-derived data on practical hydrological applications.data on practical hydrological applications.

The purpose of hydrological validation planThe purpose of hydrological validation plan

Elements of hydrological validation planElements of hydrological validation plan

• elaboratelaborationion of of the requirements (i.e., what is needed to the requirements (i.e., what is needed to perform the impact studies)perform the impact studies),,

• selectselectionion and/or develop and/or development ofment of the algorithm/modelling the algorithm/modelling tools to perform the impact studiestools to perform the impact studies,,

• describdescribtion oftion of the test sites, their equipment and the the test sites, their equipment and the experiment planned to be carried outexperiment planned to be carried out,,

•PerformPerformance ofance of the impact studies on the base of all test the impact studies on the base of all test sites using all available satellite data,sites using all available satellite data,

•structure structure of of the Education and Training (E&T) activities.the Education and Training (E&T) activities.

WP - 5000

Hydrological validation Poland (IM WM)

WP-5100

Products training Poland + Several

WP-5200 Developments

Poland + Several

WP-5300 Impact study 1

Belgium

WP-5400 Impact study 2

France

WP-5500 Impact study 3

Germany

WP-5600 Impact study 4

I taly

WP- 5110 Soil moisture

Austria

WP- 5210 Development

Belgium WP- 531

0

Scheldt river

WP-5410 Grand/Petit

Morin

WP-5510 Sieg

catchment WP-5610

Tanaro river

WP- 5120 Snow

Finland

WP- 5220 Development

France WP-5320

Meuse river

WP- 5420 Beauce region

WP- 5520 Ammer

catchment WP-5620 Arno river

WP- 5130 Precipitation

Italy

WP- 5230 Development

Germany

WP-5700 Impact stu dy 5

Poland

WP- 5430 Adour-

Garonne basin

WP-5530 Dill

catchment WP-5630

Basento river

WP- 5240 Development

Italy WP-5710 Sola river

WP-5800 Impact study 6

Slovakia WP-5810

Myjava river

WP- 5900 Impac t study 7

Turkey

WP-5250 Development

Poland WP-5720

Skawa river WP- 5820 Nitra river

WP-5910 Sakarya river

WP-5260 Development

Slovakia WP-5730

Prosna river WP- 5830

Kysuca river WP-5920 Manavgat

WP-5930 Upper

Euphrates

WP-5270 Development

Turkey WP-5840 Hron river

WP- 5850 Topla river

WP- 5940 Upper Karasu

WP-5950 Kırkgöze

basin

Structure of the WP-5000 (Hydrovalidation)Structure of the WP-5000 (Hydrovalidation)

Catchment characteristicsCatchment characteristics

Climatological criterionClimatological criterion - classifies rivers depending on the - classifies rivers depending on the climatological zone the river is located in. climatological zone the river is located in. Within area covered by EUMETSAT member and cooperating states, Within area covered by EUMETSAT member and cooperating states, three major zones can be distinguished: warm temperate zone three major zones can be distinguished: warm temperate zone (subzones: Mediterranean and marine), cold temperate zone (subzones: (subzones: Mediterranean and marine), cold temperate zone (subzones: continental and subpolar) and mountainous zone,continental and subpolar) and mountainous zone,

Geographical and high-altitude criterionGeographical and high-altitude criterion – describes localization of the – describes localization of the river including location in a specific geographical environment. river including location in a specific geographical environment. According to this criterion rivers are categorized as for example According to this criterion rivers are categorized as for example mountainous rivers, littoral rivers, etc.,mountainous rivers, littoral rivers, etc.,

Catchment management criterionCatchment management criterion – allows to group the rivers, or more – allows to group the rivers, or more precisely their catchments, regarding predominate spatial management precisely their catchments, regarding predominate spatial management type. (e.g. urban, agricultural or sylvan catchments, etc.),type. (e.g. urban, agricultural or sylvan catchments, etc.),

Catchment size criterionCatchment size criterion – classifies river systems taking into account – classifies river systems taking into account the total area of their catchments.the total area of their catchments.

Hydrological regimesHydrological regimes

Pluvial, oceanicPluvial, oceanic – occurs in temperate climate. Distribution of precipitation is – occurs in temperate climate. Distribution of precipitation is homogeneous throughout the whole year. The annual river flow is high. In the homogeneous throughout the whole year. The annual river flow is high. In the summer time, due to evaporation, water level in rivers is lower comparing to the summer time, due to evaporation, water level in rivers is lower comparing to the winter. winter. Western Europe riversWestern Europe rivers

Pluvial, MediterraneanPluvial, Mediterranean – maximum water level appears in winter, because of the – maximum water level appears in winter, because of the strongest recharge. Rivers can periodically or even totally dry up in summer. strongest recharge. Rivers can periodically or even totally dry up in summer. RRivers in Mediterranean Countriesivers in Mediterranean Countries

NivalNival – the rivers are frozen through the most part of the year. The highest flows – the rivers are frozen through the most part of the year. The highest flows appear in spring due to snowmelt. Minimum water levels are observed in autumn appear in spring due to snowmelt. Minimum water levels are observed in autumn and winter. and winter. RRivers in Eastern Europe and Scandinaviaivers in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia,,

Pluvio-nivalPluvio-nival – two periods of high water levels are observed: the first in spring, – two periods of high water levels are observed: the first in spring, caused by the snow cover melting as well as rainfalls and the second one in caused by the snow cover melting as well as rainfalls and the second one in summer, caused by rainfalls summer, caused by rainfalls RiversRivers in Eastern and partly Central E in Eastern and partly Central Europeurope

GlacialGlacial – the rivers have their headwaters in the glaciated area. Maximum water – the rivers have their headwaters in the glaciated area. Maximum water flows are observed in summer flows are observed in summer Central Europe rivers.Central Europe rivers.

Belgium:Belgium: SCHEME grid cell conceptual model, SCHEME grid cell conceptual model, 2 test sites2 test sites Scheldt, Meuse Scheldt, Meuse

France:France: SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU set of models, SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU set of models, 3 test sites3 test sites Grand Grand// PPetit Morin, Beauce, Adour-Garonneetit Morin, Beauce, Adour-Garonne,,

Germany:Germany: PRMS, HBV-BfG, MMS/MHMS models, PRMS, HBV-BfG, MMS/MHMS models, 3 test site3 test sitess Sieg riverSieg river,,

Italy:Italy: ARTU’, NASH, DRiFT models, ARTU’, NASH, DRiFT models, 3 test sites3 test sites Arno, Basento, Tanaro rivers Arno, Basento, Tanaro rivers,,

Poland:Poland: SH system (SMA, conceptual), SH system (SMA, conceptual), 3 test sites3 test sites Soła, Skawa, Prosna Soła, Skawa, Prosna,,

Slovakia:Slovakia: MIKE11-NAM, Hron rainfall-runoff, MIKE11-NAM, Hron rainfall-runoff, 5 test sites5 test sites Myjava, Kysuca, Nitra, Hron, Topľa Myjava, Kysuca, Nitra, Hron, Topľa,,

Turkey:Turkey: Snowmelt Runoff Model SRM, HBV models, Snowmelt Runoff Model SRM, HBV models, 5 test sites5 test sites Upper Euphrates, Upper Karasu, Kırkgöze , Upper Euphrates, Upper Karasu, Kırkgöze , Manavgat, Manavgat,

SSakaryaakarya, ,

Finland:Finland: to be defined. to be defined.

Operational hydrological models and selected testbedsOperational hydrological models and selected testbeds

Test catchments locationTest catchments location

•Variety of climatological conditionsVariety of climatological conditions•Variety of terrain conditionsVariety of terrain conditions•Variety of land coverVariety of land cover •Different hydrological regimesDifferent hydrological regimes•Catchment size: 242 – 102000 kmCatchment size: 242 – 102000 km22

• 902 raingauges, 21 radars902 raingauges, 21 radars

•7 7 (8) (8) countriescountries•24 test sites 24 test sites

?

PARAMETERPARAMETER REQUIRED SPATIAL REQUIRED SPATIAL RESOLUTIONRESOLUTION

REQUIRED TEMPORAL REQUIRED TEMPORAL RESOLUTIONRESOLUTION

PrecipitationPrecipitation Regular grid 50m, 100m, 500 m, 1 Regular grid 50m, 100m, 500 m, 1 km, 7 km, 8 kmkm, 7 km, 8 km

HRU, subcatchmentHRU, subcatchment

10 min, 15 min, 1h, 3h, 6h, daily10 min, 15 min, 1h, 3h, 6h, daily

SnowfallSnowfall Regular grid 1 km, 8 km, Regular grid 1 km, 8 km, HRUHRU

6 h - daily6 h - daily

Air temperatureAir temperature 8 km, 25 km, point, HRU8 km, 25 km, point, HRU 10 min, 15 min, 1h, 2h, daily10 min, 15 min, 1h, 2h, daily

Soil moistureSoil moisture point, catchment point, catchment  daily daily 

Snow covered areaSnow covered area 50m, catchment50m, catchment dailydaily

Solar radiationSolar radiation 8 km, 50 km, point8 km, 50 km, point 15 min,1h, 6h, daily15 min,1h, 6h, daily

Snow water Snow water equivalentequivalent

50m, catchment50m, catchment dailydaily

Long wave radiationLong wave radiation 8 km8 km 1h1h

Sun durationSun duration 50 km50 km 6h6h

Land use, vegetation Land use, vegetation typetype

30m, 250 m, 1km30m, 250 m, 1km 10 days, season10 days, season

Wind speedWind speed 7 km, 8 km, 25 km7 km, 8 km, 25 km 10 min, 1h, 2h10 min, 1h, 2h

HumidityHumidity 8 km, 50 km, point8 km, 50 km, point 1h, 2h, 6 h1h, 2h, 6 h

Input data for hydrological models (analysis performed by H-SAF Cluster 4)Input data for hydrological models (analysis performed by H-SAF Cluster 4)

• The analysis of the questionnaires from the hydrologicaThe analysis of the questionnaires from the hydrological l modellers do not allow modellers do not allow to to ccommon definition of the parameters expected from the satellite products at this ommon definition of the parameters expected from the satellite products at this point. point.

• It is necessary to analyse the available (now or in near future) SAF’s products that It is necessary to analyse the available (now or in near future) SAF’s products that could be useful for application in hydrological modelscould be useful for application in hydrological models inter-SAF activities inter-SAF activities..

• Large variety of models regarding spatial domain – from detailed grids (100-500 m), Large variety of models regarding spatial domain – from detailed grids (100-500 m), through HRU based model to catchment based models,through HRU based model to catchment based models,

• Large variety of requirements regarding temporal domain – from detailed 10-15 min Large variety of requirements regarding temporal domain – from detailed 10-15 min data to daily means,data to daily means,

• Most important inputs: precipitation (including snow), temperature, radiation Most important inputs: precipitation (including snow), temperature, radiation components (mainly solar).components (mainly solar).

• Less frequently used parameters: detailed radiation budget (short/long wave), Less frequently used parameters: detailed radiation budget (short/long wave), evapotranspiration, vegetation type and actual status.evapotranspiration, vegetation type and actual status.

• Data needed Data needed ((lack of adequate ground measurementslack of adequate ground measurements), ), expected from satellite expected from satellite information: soil moisture, snow water content.information: soil moisture, snow water content.

• We predict constant grow of user requirements during H-SAF development phase We predict constant grow of user requirements during H-SAF development phase due to modernisation of measuring tools and models themselves.due to modernisation of measuring tools and models themselves.

Lesson learntLesson learnt

Preparation of tool verification - the hydrological modelPreparation of tool verification - the hydrological model

input data for hydrological models from manual and

automatic ground stations and experimental resarch

hydrological model

output from hydrological model

(simulated hydrograph)

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comparing simulated and observed hydrographs

simulated mode - calibration and the verification of hydrological model

• average square error

• average square relative error

• maximum relative error

• time relative error

General hydrological validationGeneral hydrological validation algorithmalgorithm (1) (1)

Hydrological model in operating modeHydrological model in operating mode

input data for hydrological models from manul and

automatic ground stations and experimental resarch

hydrological model

output from hydrological model

(forecasted hydrograph)

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comparing forecasting and observed

hydrographs in non-operating time

operating mode - starting hydrological model in operating mode

• average square error

• average square relative error

• maximum relative error

• time relative error

General hydrological validationGeneral hydrological validation algorithmalgorithm (2) (2)input data for hydrological models from radar system (now-casting)

and meteorological model (forecasting)

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Hydrological model in operating mode using satellite dataHydrological model in operating mode using satellite data

input data for hydrological models from manul and

automatic ground stations and experimental resarch

hydrological model

output from hydrological model

(standard forecasted hydrograph and

forecasted hydrograph computed using

satellite data)

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comparing two forecasted

hydrographs (computed on base standard or satellite data) with observed hydrograph in non-

operating time

operating mode - starting hydrological model in operating mode

• average square error

• average square relative error

• maximum relative error

• time relative error

temperature, rainfall and snow

rainfall and snow

soil moisture

satellite data General hydrological validationGeneral hydrological validation algorithmalgorithm (3) (3)

satellite data

input data for hydrological models from radar system

(now-casting) and meteorological model

(forecasting)

Hydrological validation planHydrological validation plan

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comparing two forecasting

hydrographs (computed on base of standard or satellite data) with observed hydrograph in non-

operating time

• average square error

• average square relative error

• maximum relative error

• time relative error

statistical analyses

use of the satellite data increases the quality of

hydrological forecasting

we recommend satellite data as an input to

hydrological forecasting model

we recommend standard data as an input to hydrological

forecasting model

YES NO

criteria of choice

General hydrological validationGeneral hydrological validation algorithmalgorithm (4) (4)

NEITHER „YES” NOR

„NO”

Further research must be done: when, where and why

use of satellite data gives negative results. Satellite data

could be used in case when other data are not available

Feedback to Clusters 1,2,3

Solving the problems with spatial and temporal resolution (satellite products bias ?).

1. H-SAF additional tasks:

- up/down scaling methods and algorithms,

- Merging sateliite products with ground observations,

- Adapting satellite products to hydrological models inputs (interfaces).

2. Tools included in hydrological models (also considered):

- Data processors,

- Embedded GIS tools.

Preprocessing Tasks

Temporal domain - to reach the calculation time step of the hydrological model

Temporal disaggregation of measurements

Spatial domain – data regionalisation/scaling

Spatial interpolation of data (measured or forecasted) to a reference grid or center points of HRUs

Vertical dependence of parameters to be taken into account

Filling of data gaps

Temporal Disaggregation

Spatial Interpolation

(from Station to Reference Grid)

Spatial Aggregation

from Reference Grid to HRU

Spatial Interpolation

(from NWP Grid to Reference Grid)

Spatial Aggregation

from Reference Grid to HRU

Temporal Disaggregation

Spatial Interpolation

(from Station to Reference Grid)

Spatial Aggregation

from Reference Grid to HRU

Spatial Interpolation

(from NWP Grid to Reference Grid)

Spatial Aggregation

from Reference Grid to HRU

Observed Station Data Forecasted Grid Data

Observed station data transformed into mean HRU values

Forecasted grid data transformed into mean HRU values

Preprocessor: Precipitation

Satellite data are available in defined time slots (variable for polar sat.) and not in regular grid (resolution depend on viewing angle)

Conclusions:

1. H-SAF is preparing operational structure for hydrology. Without acceptation of products and their quality (at least among EUMETSAT Member and Cooperationg States), this activity will be useless.

2. Operational structure must include not only products creation but also creation of communication links to the users (GTN-H, WIS ?).

3. Strong need for closer links between satellite data providers and hydrological users – H-SAF consortium cosists of both.

4. We do not forsee to re-invent the wheel – large part of activities based on well known and partially tested algorithms and methods. Hydrological component of H-SAF useful not only for internal purposes.

5. First H-SAF products already available – soil moisture.