Jeremy Leggett, Hillary Laureate, at the Hillary Symposium

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Jeremy Leggett speaks at the Hillary Symposium on the 'Triple Crunch': economy, peak oil, and the environment

Transcript of Jeremy Leggett, Hillary Laureate, at the Hillary Symposium

  • 1. The triple crunch and the road to Copenhagen and beyond Jeremy Leggett 2nd Hillary Institute seminar The Real New Deal 5 June 2009
  • 2. We are living through a triple crunch Financial the credit crunch - the banking industry had its asset assessment systemically wrong Carbon the climate crunch - a stable climate is not even valued as an asset in our current operating paradigm Oil the energy crunch - could the energy industry have its asset assessment systemically wrong too?
  • 3. We are living through a triple crunch Financial the credit crunch - the banking industry had its asset assessment systemically wrong Carbon the climate crunch - a stable climate is not even valued as an asset in our current operating paradigm Oil the energy crunch - could the energy industry have its asset assessment systemically wrong too?
  • 4. as long as the music is playing, youve got to get up and dance. Were still dancing.
  • 5. Welcome to the AGM
  • 6. We are living through a triple crunch Financial the credit crunch - the banking industry had its asset assessment systemically wrong Carbon the climate crunch - a stable climate is not even valued as an asset in our current operating paradigm Oil the energy crunch - could the energy industry have its asset assessment systemically wrong too?
  • 7. Stern Review, 2006 430 ppm CO2e today means 1C minimum
  • 8. We are living through a triple crunch Financial the credit crunch - the banking industry had its asset assessment systemically wrong Carbon the climate crunch - a stable climate is not even valued as an asset in our current operating paradigm Oil the energy crunch - could the energy industry have its asset assessment systemically wrong too?
  • 9. 9 199 h arc M 9 200 ril Ap
  • 10. October 29th 2008 The first multi-company attempt to sound an alarm bell on premature peak oil www.peakoiltaskforce.net
  • 11. billions of barrels USA 48 production versus discovery 30 10000 US-48 9000 25 8000 Production P ro d u c tio n k b /d D is c o v e ry G b 20 7000 6000 15 5000 4000 10 3000 5 2000 1000 0 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 ASPO Source:
  • 12. billions of barrels USA 48 production versus discovery 30 10000 US-48 9000 25 8000 P ro d u c tio n k b /d 20 7000 D is c o v e ry 6000 15 5000 4000 10 Production 3000 5 2000 1000 0 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 ASPO Source:
  • 13. Global production of oil and gas 50 Non-con Gas Gas Production, Gboe/a 40 NGLs billion barrels Polar Oil 30 Deep Water Heavy 20 Regular 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
  • 14. Global production of oil and gas 50 Non-con Gas Gas billion Gboe/a 40 NGLs Production, barrels Polar Oil 30 Deep Water Heavy 20 Regular 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: ASPO
  • 15. mbd The IEA is also concerned The gap to make up for depletion in 100 existing fields: Six Saudi Arabias Global production of oil 95 90 85 80 75 Source: IEA WEO 2008 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
  • 16. Global production of oil mbd The IEA is also concerned The gap to make up for depletion in 100 existing fields: Six Saudi Arabias Global production of oil 95 90 85 80 75 Source: IEA WEO 2008 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
  • 17. ..y My Picturesuntitled.bmp Dubai 1990
  • 18. ..y My Picturesuntitled.bmp Dubai 2007
  • 19. Concerns pursuant to the 2005 US DoE Hirsch report of on oil security 1. Oil supplies and GDPs are coupled in normal times, and when sudden shortages have happened 2. World production has been on a plateau since 2004, because additions of new capacity are not exceeding depletion 3. Recession is meaning cutbacks in oil exploration and development investment: a recipe for declining world oil production in just a few years 4. This means global GDP will be dragged down by descending global oil production, causing ever deepening recession 5. The lag time for mitigation is long: alternative technologies will take at least a decade to have major effect 6. This means double recession, prolonged, before recovery Source: Bob Hirsch, April 2009
  • 20. ITPOES recommendations: 1. National 1. Appraise the risk from premature peak oil, and plan proactive and reactive strategies 2. Draw up a national energy plan to deal with the premature peak-oil threat maximise energy conservation and energy efficiency accelerate investment in renewable energy and sustainable renewable fuels national skills programmes in energy expand national oil and gas programmes (if possible) 3. There is no ti