J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

13
JCPenney operates 1,104 stores, selling apparel, accessories, and home furnishings that are moderately priced and targeted to middle-income customers shopping for families and homes. Maintain Neutral rating. JCP posted a Q2 miss on a sales and gross margin shortfall. Continued weak fundamentals and ongoing efforts to reverse prior management’s “failed” strategies suggest a prolonged turnaround as fixing operations and winning back consumers (the most critical, and uncertain, factor) take time. Liquidity appears adequate for now – but the potential need additional funds down the road makes the value case difficult. We advise investors to remain on the sidelines, pending further progress on turnaround initiatives. Weak quarter. Q2 adjusted loss per share of $1.17 missed consensus of ($1.06). Adjusted results exclude losses on: the deferred tax valuation allowance ($0.99), extinguishment of debt ($0.52), restructuring charges ($0.21), non-cash qualified pension expense ($0.04), as well as a $0.28 gain on an asset sale. Operationally, sales and gross profit (-705bp, adjusted) fell short and operating expenses were roughly in line. - Comp -11.9% (vs. -21.7%), below consensus of -8.3% and our -6.0% estimate, hindered by lingering impact from "failed" merchandising and promotional strategies, as well as a disappointing home department renovation (~240bp impact; productivity actually declined in updated stores vs. non-updated). Traffic declined 5.5%, in line with Q1 levels. Signs of improvement… Management indicated comps improved sequentially each month in Q2 (driven by conversion, rather than traffic), as the company has reinstated promotions and key private labels. It anticipates a similar trend for 2H. In Q2, jcp.com sales declined 2% to $215 million and posted a 14% increase in July. The release also noted that initial back-to-school results have been encouraging. …but hangover effects lingering longer. Management indicated traffic remains “challenged” in August due to cycling free kids haircuts and heavy clearance. The company is “restaging” its home department ahead of the holidays, a move that feels more like short-term treatment than a long-term fix. JCP also does not expect to have private label adequately rebalanced or see much gross margin improvement until Q4. Outlook: We see several reasons why JCP’s situation should improve from here (easier comps, prudent pricing/promotion, and product/merchandising corrections). However, Q2 results demonstrated progress will take time. Meanwhile, additional liquidity buys time but further dilutes equity holders. We advise investors to remain on the sidelines, pending further progress on nascent turnaround initiatives and signs of consumer acceptance. August 20, 2013 Baird Equity Research Softline & Department Store Retail J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) Q2 Recap: Tough Road to Recovery; Some Encouraging Signs Ahead Mark R. Altschwager, CFA [email protected] 414.765.3572 Blair M. Pircon [email protected] 312.609.5449 Jacob R. Zitter [email protected] 312.609.4496 [ Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification ] LOWERING PRICE TARGET 1-Year Price Chart S-12 O-12 N-12 D-12 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 35 30 25 20 15 10 13 29 Stock Data Rating: Neutral Suitability: Higher Risk Price Target/Previous: $16/$19 Price (8/20/13): $14.01 Market Cap (mil): $3,091 Shares Out (mil): 220.6 Average Daily Vol (mil): 11.94 Dividend Yield: 0.0% Estimates FY Jan 2012A 2013E 2014E Q1 (0.25) A (1.31) A (1.42) E Q2 (0.37) A (1.17) E (1.22) E Q3 (0.93) A (2.00) E (1.31) E Q4 (1.70) A (1.72) E (0.77) E Fiscal EPS (3.24) A (6.20) E (4.75) E Previous (FY) (2.69) E (1.41) E Fiscal P/E NM NM NM Chart/Table Sources: Bloomberg and Baird Data EPS (Net): Adjusted EPS excludes charges and non-cash qualified pension expense

Transcript of J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

Page 1: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

JCPenney operates 1,104 stores, selling apparel, accessories, and home

furnishings that are moderately priced and targeted to middle-income

customers shopping for families and homes.

Maintain Neutral rating. JCP posted a Q2 miss on a sales and gross margin

shortfall. Continued weak fundamentals and ongoing efforts to reverse prior

management’s “failed” strategies suggest a prolonged turnaround as fixing

operations and winning back consumers (the most critical, and uncertain, factor)

take time. Liquidity appears adequate for now – but the potential need additional

funds down the road makes the value case difficult. We advise investors to remain

on the sidelines, pending further progress on turnaround initiatives.

■ Weak quarter. Q2 adjusted loss per share of $1.17 missed consensus of

($1.06). Adjusted results exclude losses on: the deferred tax valuation allowance

($0.99), extinguishment of debt ($0.52), restructuring charges ($0.21), non-cash

qualified pension expense ($0.04), as well as a $0.28 gain on an asset sale.

Operationally, sales and gross profit (-705bp, adjusted) fell short and operating

expenses were roughly in line.

- Comp -11.9% (vs. -21.7%), below consensus of -8.3% and our -6.0% estimate,

hindered by lingering impact from "failed" merchandising and promotional

strategies, as well as a disappointing home department renovation (~240bp

impact; productivity actually declined in updated stores vs. non-updated).

Traffic declined 5.5%, in line with Q1 levels.

■ Signs of improvement… Management indicated comps improved sequentially

each month in Q2 (driven by conversion, rather than traffic), as the company has

reinstated promotions and key private labels. It anticipates a similar trend for 2H.

In Q2, jcp.com sales declined 2% to $215 million and posted a 14% increase in

July. The release also noted that initial back-to-school results have been

encouraging.

■ …but hangover effects lingering longer. Management indicated traffic remains

“challenged” in August due to cycling free kids haircuts and heavy clearance.

The company is “restaging” its home department ahead of the holidays, a move

that feels more like short-term treatment than a long-term fix. JCP also does not

expect to have private label adequately rebalanced or see much gross margin

improvement until Q4.

■ Outlook: We see several reasons why JCP’s situation should improve from here

(easier comps, prudent pricing/promotion, and product/merchandising

corrections). However, Q2 results demonstrated progress will take time.

Meanwhile, additional liquidity buys time but further dilutes equity holders. We

advise investors to remain on the sidelines, pending further progress on nascent

turnaround initiatives and signs of consumer acceptance.

August 20, 2013 Baird Equity ResearchSoftline & Department Store Retail

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)Q2 Recap: Tough Road to Recovery; Some Encouraging Signs Ahead

Mark R. Altschwager, CFA

[email protected]

414.765.3572

Blair M. Pircon

[email protected]

312.609.5449

Jacob R. Zitter

[email protected]

312.609.4496

[Please refer to Appendix- Important Disclosuresand Analyst Certification]

LOWERING PRICE TARGET

1-Year Price Chart

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Stock Data

Rating: Neutral

Suitability: Higher Risk

Price Target/Previous: $16/$19

Price (8/20/13): $14.01

Market Cap (mil): $3,091

Shares Out (mil): 220.6

Average Daily Vol (mil): 11.94

Dividend Yield: 0.0%

Estimates

FY Jan 2012A 2013E 2014E

Q1 (0.25) A (1.31) A (1.42) E

Q2 (0.37) A (1.17) E (1.22) E

Q3 (0.93) A (2.00) E (1.31) E

Q4 (1.70) A (1.72) E (0.77) E

Fiscal EPS (3.24) A (6.20) E (4.75) E

Previous (FY) (2.69) E (1.41) E

Fiscal P/E NM NM NM

Chart/Table Sources: Bloomberg and Baird Data

EPS (Net): Adjusted EPS excludes charges and non-cash

qualified pension expense

Page 2: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

Details

Incremental Takeaways from the Report■ Progress on turnaround initiatives. CEO Mike Ullman noted "there are no quick fixes," but

outlined some progress on JCP's initiatives: 1) driving traffic and conversion with better marketing

(favorable response to back-to-school messaging); 2) restoring key merchandise ("significant

progress" on basics and private-label; corrected by Q4); 3) aligning jcp.com merchandise with

stores (nearly complete); 4) fixing home (assortment, pricing, and layout failed to resonate with

customers; testing changes based on feedback) 5) talent (filled most key leadership positions,

selectively increased store labor); 6) reaffirming suppliers; and 7) strengthening its financial position

(plan use of cash down substantially in 2H; see below).

■ Liquidity. JCP ended Q2 with $1.5 billion in cash (previously disclosed), with $1.85 billion of total

liquidity (including the undrawn portion of its new $2.25 billion credit facility). JCP expects to end

the year with $1.5+ billion in overall liquidity. Management does not anticipate a need for outside

financing in 2013. In addition, the company provided cap ex guidance of $300 million for 2014,

compared to $953 million in 2013 ($300M in 2H13), which assumes no new shops other than

Sephora (generates ~$600 per square foot compared to ~$200 for the entire store).

■ Largest shareholder resigns from board; initiates process to sell shares. On August 12,

William Ackman resigned from the company's board of directors following a public disagreement

with the board regarding the CEO succession plan (Ackman pushed to accelerate the search for a

permanent CEO; board chairman Thomas Engibous backed interim CEO Mike Ullman). The

resulting settlement between Mr. Ackman and JCP included a requirement to appoint two new

directors with significant retail expertise (Ronald Tysoe, former Vice Chairman at Federated

Department Stores, was elected to the board on August 13). On August 16, JCP announced an

agreement with Mr. Ackman and Pershing Square Capital to allow them to make up to four

requests to the company to register shares for sale, subject to certain terms (maximum of two

requests per twelve months; at least 5 million shares each). The agreement terminates when the

ownership declines to under 5% (17.7% currently).

August 20, 2013 | J.C. Penney Company, Inc.

2Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 3: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

Q2 Variancex J.C. Penney Company, Inc. x

x Baird x

x (M illions) Q2-13 Q2-12 Change Estimate Variance xx x

x Net Sales 2,663 3,022 -11.9% 2,847 -6.5% x

x Comp -11.9% -21.7% 980 bp -6.0% (590 bp) xx x

x Gross Profit 787 1,106 -28.8% 1,002 -21.5% x

x Gross Margin 29.6% 36.6% (705 bp) 35.2% (565 bp) xx x

x SG&A 1,026 1,050 -2.3% 1,000 2.6% x

x As % of Net Sales 38.5% 34.7% 378 bp 35.1% 340 bp x

x Pension Expense (Income) 34 58 -41.4% 39 -12.8% x

x As % of Net Sales 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% x

x Deprec. & Amort. 143 128 11.7% 138 3.6% x

x As % of Net Sales 5.4% 4.2% 4.8% x

x Other Expense (Income) (6) (8) -25.0% (4) 50.0% xx x

x Operating Expenses 1,197 1,228 -2.5% 1,173 2.0% x

x As % of Net Sales 44.9% 40.6% 431 bp 41.2% 375 bp xx x

x Adjusted Operating Income (410) -122 NM -171 139.9% x

x Adjusted Operating Margin -15.4% -4.0% (1136 bp) -6.0% (939 bp) xx x

x Interest Expense (Income) 209 58 260.3% 55 280.0% xx x

x Pretax Income (619) (180) NM (226) NM x

x Pretax Margin -23.2% -6.0% -7.9% xx x

x Tax Rate 56.7% 38.9% 38.0% xx x

x Adjusted Net Income (268) (110) NM (140) NM x

x Net Margin -10.1% -3.6% -4.9% xx x

EPS (ex-charges)* ($1.21) ($0.50) NM ($0.64) NM

EPS (ex-charges, qual. pens. expense**) ($1.17) ($0.37) NM ($0.55) NM

x GAAP Earnings Per Share ($2.66) ($0.67) NM ($0.64) NM x

x Average Shares 220.6 219.3 0.6% 219.5 0.5% xx x

x Source: Company Documents; Robert W . Baird Estimates x

** Q2-13 excludes $25 of non-cash qualified pension expense ($0.04/share); Q2-12 excludes

$48 million ($0.13/share)

* Q3-12 excludes $47 million ($0.21/share) of restructuring and management transition charges, a $62 million

($0.28/share) benefit from a gain on sale of non-operating asset, and a $218 million ($0.99/share) charge to

record an increase to the tax valuation allowance for deferred tax assets

* Q2-12 excludes $102 million ($0.29/share) of markdowns to clear discontinued inventory in preparation of

new product, a $200 million benefit ($0.57/share) from redemption of REIT units, net of fees, and $159 million

($0.45/share) of restructuring and management transition charges

Revenue Analysis

■ Comp -11.9% (vs. -21.7%), below consensus of -8.3% and our -6.0% estimate, negatively

impacted by significant markdowns to clear merchandise form prior strategies. Additionally, the

longer-than-planned home renovation (most opened a month late in June) and suboptimal

re-merchandising (lacked opening price points, organized by brand instead of category) hindered

comps by 240bp (home productivity higher in ~600 stores without new shops). On a two-year basis,

comps were fairly stable at -33.6% (-35.5% in Q1 and -33.5% in Q4-12).

- Traffic down 5.5% year-over-year , near the 6% decrease in Q1 (-17% in Q4, -12% in Q3 and

Q2, -10% in Q1).

- Conversion decreased 4.9% (-1% in Q1, -10% in Q3/Q4, -8% in Q2, -5% in Q1).

■ Sales improved sequentially by month within the quarter, a trend management expects to

continue in 2H13.

■ Online sales -2.2% (included in comps), a significant 1,700 bp improvement from Q1 driven by the

realignment of its offering with stores. Women’s and men’s apparel were up double-digits and the

home category outperformed stores. Sales improved sequentially by month, with sales in July up

14%.

August 20, 2013 | J.C. Penney Company, Inc.

3Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 4: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

ONE- AND TWO-YEAR QUARTERLY COMPS (Y/Y)

Source: Company Documents; Robert W. Baird Estimates

-40%

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Margin Analysis

■ Gross margin decreased 705bp to 29.6% (vs. adjusted 36.6% in Q2-12; modeled -140bp,

consensus -200bp). The decline was driven by lower-than-expected sales and significant clearance

levels, including carryover merchandise from early 2013. Gross margin decreased 367bp versus

GAAP gross margin of 33.2% in Q2-12.

■ SG&A expense decreased 2.3% (modeled -4.8%) with savings from restructuring, partially offset

by strategic investments to drive traffic for back-to-school (marketing and selling hours). JCP has

realized net savings of $709 million over the last six quarters; management indicated it is not overly

focused on hitting former management’s target of $900 million in net savings in 2013 vs. 2011 (we

are modeling [$805] million).

Outlook

Early positive signs; much work remains. Recently reinstated CEO Mike Ullman noted "there are

no quick fixes," but outlined some progress on JCP's initiatives.

■ Driving traffic and conversion with better marketing (cited favorable response to back-to-school

marketing launched late in Q2). Reinstating promotions was a “first step,” but a resonating

marketing message around more exciting promotions during the holiday season will be critical

(including developing a more robust social and digital presence). JCP plans to coordinate its

promotion and marketing efforts most intensely around ~20 key shopping occasions per year. It will

also compete with coupons/sales outside of those times, but to a lesser degree than historically

(e.g., ~590 promotions in 2011). JCP also increased POS capabilities by reinstalling 1,400

permanent cash registers, adding to the 2,800 mobile carts already deployed.

■ Restoring key merchandise, primarily basics and private-label, where management stated it has

made "significant progress," but does not expect to be adequately rebalanced until Q4. In 2012,

JCP eliminated “nonproductive” brands, and enhanced the quality of owned brands (e.g.,

Worthington and Liz Claiborne). Given strong consumer demand, management plans to bring back

~3-4 brands, most notably St. John’s Bay (~$1 billion brand, according to management).

■ Aligning jcp.com merchandise with stores (nearly complete), which helps mitigate lost store

sales as associates can better fulfill orders online when inventory is not available in store.

■ Fixing home. While some shops performed better than others, the much-anticipated home launch

on June 6 in 475 stores (30 delayed) proved disappointing across the board. The assortment (to

heavy on modern style vs. traditional and hardline goods vs. soft), pricing (lacked in-demand

opening price points), and layout (organized by brand rather than category) failed to resonate with

customers, and company is testing changes based on their feedback. However, management said

home performed well online, indicating that the product offering is not entirely off-mark. JCP already

consolidated all soft goods (towels, sheets, etc.) and plans to reallocate space back to some

higher-profit categories (e.g., luggage, frames, candles, window coverings), which had been

August 20, 2013 | J.C. Penney Company, Inc.

4Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 5: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

reduced. Management believes it will take relatively longer to correct the merchandizing style mix

(dependent on purchasing cycle), but management expects the opening price point offering to

improve with the spring assortment.

■ Completing talent hiring and allocation. JCP filled most key leadership positions (permanent

CIO and property development outstanding); one-third of the 22-member executive board remains

intact from Ullman’s prior tenure. The company also selectively increased store labor in Q2 for

high-traffic days (plans to continue to do so).

■ Reaffirming suppliers. Management emphasized it continues to have the support of all key

supplier and that several have experienced improving sales.

■ Strengthening its financial position. JCP ended Q2 with $1.5 billion in cash (previously

disclosed), with $1.85 billion of total liquidity (including the undrawn portion of its new $2.25 billion

credit facility). JCP plans its use of cash down substantially in 2H and expects to end the year with

$1.5+ billion in overall liquidity. Management does not anticipate a need for outside financing in

2013. In addition, the company provided capex guidance of $300 million for 2014, compared to

$953 million in 2013 ($300M in 2H13), which assumes no new shops other than Sephora

(generates ~$600 per square foot compared to ~$200 for the entire store).

Margin Outlook

We are modeling net SG&A savings of $202 million in 2013 (vs. 2011; realized $603 million in 2012),

equating to $805 million compared to the former management team’s $900 million run-rate target in

annualized cost savings. CEO Mike Ullman previously expressed general commitment to that target,

though noted potential for minor areas to re-invest (increased store labor). Savings were originally

targeted from stores ($400 million; fewer labor hours), home office ($350 million; flattening

organizational structure), and advertising ($150 million).

2012 SG&A SAVINGS ($M)

2011 $5,109

Salaries and benefits -386

Advertising -106

Private label credit card -95

Catalog outlet stores and specialty websites -71

Information technology 25

Miscellaneous items 30

2012 $4,506

Source: Company reports

ANNUAL GROSS AND OPERATING MARGIN

Source: Company Documents; Robert W. Baird Estimates

9.5%6.1%

3.8% 4.7%

0.0%

-10.1%-13.4%

-6.2%

-15%

-10%

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0%

5%

10%

15%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

GAAP Operating Margin

38.6% 37.4% 39.4% 39.2%36.0%

31.3% 29.5%33.9%

0%

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

Gross Margin

August 20, 2013 | J.C. Penney Company, Inc.

5Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 6: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

Management Changes

Executive Hires

■ Chief Executive Officer Myron Ullman rejoined in April 2013 after serving as CEO from 2004 to

November 2011, when he was replaced by CEO Ron Johnson.

■ Chief Financial Officer Ken Hannah (May 2012), whose experience includes President, Solar

Energy at MEMC Electronic Materials (2009-2012), CFO of MEMC (2006-2009), as well as several

other leadership positions at Home Depot, Boeing Company, and General Electric.

■ SVP of Marketing Debra Berman joined August 2. Berman most recently served as VP of

marketing strategy and engagement at Kraft Foods Group.

■ EVP of Human Resources Brynn Evanson (April 2013), promoted from JCP’s VP of

compensation, benefits and talent operations. Evanson joined JCP in 2009.

Executive Departures

■ Chief Executive Officer Ron Johnson (November 2011-April 2013), was previously the Senior VP

of Retail Operations at Apple Inc. (joined in 2000) and prior to that, worked at Target Corp. as VP of

Merchandising. Johnson took over merchandising, planning/allocation, and marketing in November

2011, and the remaining responsibilities in January 2012.

■ Chief Operating Officer Michael Kramer (December 2011-April 2013), whose experience

includes CEO and President of Kellwood Inc. (2008-2011), EVP and CFO of Abercrombie & Fitch

(2005-2008), and CFO, Apple Retail (2000-2005).

■ Chief Technology Officer Kristen Blum (January 2012-June 2013), who most recently served as

SVP, Chief Financial Officer, Enterprise Transformation at PepsiCo (2010-2011), SVP, Chief

Information Officer at Abercrombie & Fitch (2006-2010), and Director of Supply Chain Solutions and

International Retail at Apple, Inc. (2002-2006).

■ Chief Talent Officer Daniel Walker (December 2011), whose experience includes Chief Talent

Officer at Apple (2000-2004), as well as several other HR leadership positions at Gap, General

Mills, and Lazarus.

■ President Michael Francis (June 2012) joined JCP in October 2011. Francis previously served as

EVP and Chief Marketing Officer of Target Corp. (2001-2011 and 2008-2011 respectively). Francis

had been with Target since its acquisition of Marshall Field's in 1990 (which he joined in 1986 as an

executive trainee).

■ Chief Financial Officer Michael Dastugue (April 2012). Dastugue was promoted to CFO in

January 2011 after serving 20 years (joined JCP in 1991) in various financial leadership positions,

including SVP of Finance and SVP of Property Development.

■ Chief Marketing Officer Mike Boylson (July 2011) after 30+ years at JCPenney. The company

appointed Eric Hunter to SVP, Marketing (March 2012) and Greg Clark to SVP, Creative (March

2012).

Balance Sheet/Cash Flow Analysisx Balance Sheet Q2-13 Q1-13 Q/Q Chg Q2-12 Y/Y Chg x

x (M illions) xx x

x Cash and Equivalents 1,535 821 87% 888 73% x

x Inventory 3,155 2,798 13% 2,993 5% x

x Inventory Turns 2.9 3.0 3.0 xx x

x Trade Payables 1,276 1,248 2% 1,015 26% x

x AP/Inventory 40.4% 44.6% 33.9% x

x Total Debt 5,821 3,826 52% 3,151 85% xx xx x

x Cash Flow from Ops (708) (752) NM (32) NM x

x Capital Expenditures 439 214 105% 132 233% x

x Free Cash Flow (1,147) (966) NM (164) NM xx x

xx Source: Company Documents xx

August 20, 2013 | J.C. Penney Company, Inc.

6Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 7: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

■ JCP ended Q1 with cash of ~$1.5 billion ($821 million after Q1) and total liquidity of $1.85 billion.

■ Total debt of $5.82 billion (+52% from Q1) includes $850 million outstanding on the revolving

credit facility, the $2.25 billion senior secured term loan, $2.62 billion of outstanding unsecured

debt, and $98 million in capital lease obligations and notes payable. In May, a Goldman Sachs-led

arranger group increased JCP’s five-year term loan to $2.25 billion from the $1.75 billion

announced in April, backed by real estate, inventory, and trademarks.

Investment Perspective/Valuation■ Maintain Neutral rating. Continued weak fundamentals and ongoing efforts to reverse prior

management’s “failed” strategies suggest a prolonged turnaround as fixing operations and winning

back consumers (the most critical, and uncertain, factor) take time. Liquidity appears adequate for

now – but the potential need additional funds down the road makes the value case difficult. We

advise investors to remain on the sidelines, pending further progress on turnaround initiatives.

■ Our new $16 price target (from $19) reflects 0.7-0.75x EV/NTM sales, between current levels (0.6x)

and department store peers (~0.8x) to reflect the ongoing turnaround. We see upside to this

valuation scenario should turnaround efforts yield faster results. Note that JCP sales fell from ~$17

billion to $12 billion as consumers fled. Our model incorporates stabilization/modest recovery to

~$13 billion over the next 1-2 years.

Specialty and Department Store Retailers

2012 2013E 2014E 2013E TTM

Price Market EPS EPS EPS NTM LT EPS EV/ EV/

Company Name 8/20/13 Cap ($M) Growth Growth Growth P/E Growth PEG EBITDA Sales

Aeropostale 12.29 966 -24% -72% 179% 31.6 10% 3.0 10.2 0.4

American Eagle 16.33 3,083 62% -14% 18% 12.4 11% 1.1 5.5 1.0

Coach 52.60 14,569 20% 7% 13% 13.6 10% 1.4 7.9 3.0

The Gap, Inc. 43.42 19,919 49% 19% 10% 14.7 13% 1.1 7.4 1.0

Gordmans 14.13 274 -7% -31% 31% 14.2 15% 0.9 6.1 0.3

Guess 30.53 2,542 -30% -16% 15% 15.5 7% 2.1 7.3 0.8

J.C. Penney 14.00 2,912 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 0.6

Kohl's 52.53 11,419 -3% 2% 10% 11.7 6% 1.9 5.7 0.8

L Brands 60.64 17,085 12% 10% 12% 17.7 11% 1.6 9.8 1.7

Macy's 45.58 19,070 20% 12% 12% 11.0 13% 0.8 6.1 0.8

Nordstrom 57.18 10,999 13% 4% 12% 14.9 10% 1.4 7.4 1.1

Polo Ralph Lauren 172.89 15,402 12% 8% 18% 18.8 11% 1.7 10 2.1

Sally Beauty Holdings 27.09 4,514 33% 6% 16% 15.8 15% 1.1 10 1.7

Stein Mart 13.12 553 43% 15% NA 18.3 10% 1.8 6.3 0.3

TJX Companies 53.59 36,528 28% 11% 13% 17.7 12% 1.5 9.3 1.3

S&P 600 Small-Cap Index 581.46 7% 15% 21% 17.1 13% 1.3

S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index 1208.62 13% 6% 16% 16.2 12% 1.4

S&P 500 Index 1654.35 6% 6% 8% 14.3 8% 1.8

Mean (excl. indices) 10,656 16% -3% 28% 15.7 11% 1.5 7.8 1.1

Median (excl. indices) 10,999 17% 6% 13% 14.8 11% 1.5 7.4 1.0

Source: First Call Consensus Estimates (FactSet)

Investment Thesis

■ Brand strategy. JCPenney offers a combination of private and exclusive brands and well-known

national brands at attractive prices. Sephora inside JCPenney shops (386 after 2012; 500+ store

opportunity) and other "attractions" (Liz Claiborne, MNG by Mango, ALDO Call it Spring) brought in

customers and increased productivity, a strategy which departed CEO Ron Johnson sought to

expand by adding additional 100 shop-in-shops (including Joe Fresh, Michael Graves, Jonathan

Adler, Georgina Chapman).

■ Challenged turnaround. In January 2012, the prior management team of JCP unveiled an

August 20, 2013 | J.C. Penney Company, Inc.

7Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 8: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

ambitious plan to transform the company over four years. Key changes included a "Fair & Square"

pricing strategy (eliminating layered and frequent discounts), updated merchandise (adding brands,

eliminating nonproductive brands, and enhancing owned brands), marketing (including

spokeswoman Ellen Degeneres), a new store prototype (to be announced in 2013), and in-store

presentation (100 unique shop-in-shops). Management simultaneously indicated plans to cut SG&A

by over $900 million annually.

■ CEO transition. Mike Ullman returned as CEO in April 2013 after being replaced by Ron Johnson

(former SVP, Retail at Apple Inc.) in November 2011.

■ Merchandising progress. JCP has introduced private and exclusive brands designed to

complement its depth in basics. JCP began to roll out new shops and upgraded content for new

and enhanced existing brands (including IZOD and Levi) in fall 2012. A revamped home

department launched in March, though the anchoring Martha Stewart home concept remains

largely held up in litigation with Macy's.

■ Comps. We anticipate negative comps in 2013 (modeling -5%). JCP posted comps -25.2% in

2012, +0.2% in 2011, +2.5% in 2010, -6.2% in 2009, -8.5% in 2008, and 0.0% in 2007 (averaged

5.0% in 2004-2006).

■ Margin factors. Operating margin improved from 2003 to 2006 (peaked at 9.7%) but fell to 6.1% in

2008, 0.0% in 2011, and (10.1%) in 2012.

■ Minimal unit expansion. After modest growth in 2006-2009 (2.4% CAGR), the company closed

one net store in 2010 and four in 2011 and opened two in 2012.

■ Pension expense. Pension expense increased to $315 million in 2012 (including $148 million lump

sum payment to departing employees), from $87 million in 2011, $221 million in 2010. The

company previously indicated expecting pension expense to be $0 by 2014 (closed to additional

participants).

Risks & Caveats

■ Economic factors. JCP is affected by consumer spending trends, particularly in the apparel

category.

■ Competition. JCP competes with moderate/traditional department stores, specialty retailers, and

general merchandisers.

■ Seasonality. Earnings and cash flows heavily depend on results over the holiday season in Q4,.

■ Indebtedness. While maintaining adequate liquidity, JCP holds significant debt ($2.1 billion net

debt after 2012). A sustained downturn could hinder JCP's ability to service its debt or refinance

long-term obligations as they become payable.

Company Description

JCPenney operates 1,104 stores in 49 states and Puerto Rico, as well as a direct business. Stores sell

apparel and footwear, accessories, fine and fashion jewelry, beauty products (through Sephora Inside

JCPenney), and home furnishings that are moderately priced and targeted to middle-income

customers shopping for families and homes.

August 20, 2013 | J.C. Penney Company, Inc.

8Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 9: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

Page 1

Date Printed: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. Mark R. Altschwager, CFA, 414-765-3572

Fiscal Year Ends: January (JCP - NYSE) Blair M. Pircon, 312-609-5449

Recent Price: $14.00 *Net results are before discontinued operations, extraordinary items, and unusual one-time charges. Jacob R. Zitter, 312-609-4496

(in Millions) Comp Gross Profit Operating Expenses Operating Income Op. Income Ex-Pension Pretax Income Tax GAAP Net Income GAAP Avg Adj. EPS

Year Sales Chg Stores $ % Chg $ % Chg $ % Chg $ % Chg $ % Chg Rate $ % Chg EPS Chg Shares EPS Chg Ex-QP Chg

2004 18,096 3.3% 5.9% 6,792 37.5% 2.6% 5,517 30.5% -12.9% 1,275 7.0% 344.3% 1,275 7.0% 344.3% 995 5.5% NA 34.0% 657 3.6% NA 2.14 NA 307.0 2.14 NM 2.32 NA

2005 18,781 3.8% 4.2% 7,191 38.3% 5.9% 5,560 29.6% 0.8% 1,631 8.7% 27.9% 1,700 9.1% 33.3% 1,444 7.7% 45.1% 32.3% 977 5.2% 48.7% 3.83 79.0% 255.0 3.83 79% 4.01 73.3%

2006 19,903 6.0% 4.9% 7,825 39.3% 8.8% 5,903 29.7% 6.2% 1,922 9.7% 17.8% 1,931 9.7% 13.6% 1,792 9.0% 24.1% 36.7% 1,134 5.7% 16.1% 4.89 27.6% 232.0 4.89 28% 4.91 22.4%

2007 19,860 -0.2% 0.0% 7,671 38.6% -2.0% 5,783 29.1% -2.0% 1,888 9.5% -1.8% 1,791 9.0% -7.3% 1,735 8.7% -3.2% 38.1% 1,073 5.4% -5.4% 4.78 -2.2% 225.0 4.77 -2% 4.50 -8.4%

2008 18,486 -6.9% -8.5% 6,915 37.4% -9.9% 5,780 31.3% -0.1% 1,135 6.1% -39.9% 1,002 5.4% -44.1% 910 4.9% -47.5% 37.7% 567 3.1% -47.2% 2.54 -46.8% 223.0 2.54 -47% 2.17 -51.8%

Q1 3,884 -5.9% -7.5% 1,574 40.5% -4.6% 1,468 37.8% 4.7% 106 2.7% -57.3% 187 4.8% -13.0% 43 1.1% -77.9% 41.9% 25 0.6% -79.2% 0.11 -79.1% 222.7 0.11 -79% 0.32 -27.6%

Q2 3,943 -7.9% -9.5% 1,520 38.5% -5.4% 1,453 36.9% 6.6% 67 1.7% -72.4% 140 3.6% -33.3% (1) (0.0%) -101% 37.0% (1) (0.0%) -101% (0.00) NM 233.8 0.00 -101% 0.19 NM

Q3 4,179 -3.2% -4.6% 1,696 40.6% 1.9% 1,589 38.0% 12.8% 107 2.6% -58.0% 180 4.3% -18.9% 43 1.0% -78.4% 37.2% 27 0.6% -78.0% 0.11 -79.4% 237.6 0.11 -79% 0.31 -33.4%

Q4 5,550 -3.6% -4.5% 2,120 38.2% 6.3% 1,737 31.3% 8.2% 383 6.9% -1.5% 454 8.2% 27.9% 318 5.7% -3.0% 37.7% 198 3.6% -4.8% 0.84 -10.6% 237.3 0.83 -11% 1.02 21.9%

2009 17,556 -5.0% -6.3% 6,910 39.4% -0.1% 6,247 35.6% 8.1% 663 3.8% -41.6% 961 5.5% -4.1% 403 2.3% -55.7% 38.1% 249 1.4% -56.0% 1.07 -57.9% 233.1 1.07 -58% 1.86 -14.3%

Q1A 3,929 1.2% 1.3% 1,630 41.5% 3.6% 1,475 37.5% 0.5% 155 3.9% 46.2% 210 5.3% 12.3% 96 2.4% 123% 37.5% 60 1.5% 140% 0.25 125% 237.6 0.25 125% 0.40 22.2%

Q2A 3,938 -0.1% 0.9% 1,552 39.4% 2.1% 1,457 37.0% 0.3% 95 2.4% 41.8% 150 3.8% 7.1% 18 0.5% NM 22.2% 14 0.4% NM 0.06 NM 237.6 0.06 NM 0.20 NM

Q3A 4,189 0.2% 1.9% 1,635 39.0% -3.6% 1,511 36.1% -4.9% 124 3.0% 15.9% 180 4.3% 0.0% 67 1.6% 55.8% 34.3% 44 1.1% 63.0% 0.19 62.8% 237.8 0.19 63% 0.34 9.7%

Q4A 5,703 2.8% 4.5% 2,143 37.6% 1.1% 1,685 29.5% -3.0% 458 8.0% 19.6% 513 9.0% 13.0% 400 7.0% 25.8% 35.0% 260 4.6% 31.3% 1.09 29.5% 239.0 1.09 30% 1.23 20.5%

2010A 17,759 1.2% 2.5% 6,960 39.2% 0.7% 6,128 34.5% -1.9% 832 4.7% 25.5% 1,053 5.9% 9.6% 581 3.3% 44.2% 34.9% 378 2.1% 51.6% 1.59 48.5% 238.0 1.59 48% 2.16 15.8%

Q1A 3,943 0.4% 3.8% 1,595 40.5% -2.1% 1,434 36.4% -2.8% 161 4.1% 3.9% 183 4.6% -12.9% 103 2.6% 7% 37.9% 64 1.6% 7% 0.28 9.4% 231.7 0.30 19% 0.36 -9.9%

Q2A 3,906 -0.8% 1.5% 1,497 38.3% -3.5% 1,416 36.3% -2.8% 81 2.1% -14.7% 102 2.6% -32.0% 24 0.6% NM 41.3% 14 0.4% 1% 0.07 10.5% 216.3 0.13 116% 0.19 -7.1%

Q3A 3,986 -4.8% -1.6% 1,489 37.4% -8.9% 1,660 41.6% 9.9% (171) (4.3%) -238% (149) (3.7%) -183% (226) (5.7%) -437% 36.7% (143) (3.6%) NM (0.67) NM 213.3 0.11 -39% 0.18 -47.0%

Q4A 5,425 -4.9% -1.8% 1,637 30.2% -23.6% 1,710 31.5% 1.5% (73) (1.3%) -116% (51) (0.9%) -110% (130) (2.4%) -133% 33.1% (87) (1.6%) -133% (0.41) NM 213.7 0.74 -32% 0.80 -34.8%

2011A 17,260 -2.8% 0.2% 6,218 36.0% -10.7% 6,220 36.0% 1.5% (2) (0.0%) -100% 85 0.5% -91.9% (229) (1.3%) -139% 33.7% (152) (0.9%) -140% (0.70) NM 217.4 1.29 -19% 1.53 -29.0%

Q1A 3,152 -20.1% -18.9% 1,186 37.6% -25.6% 1,412 44.8% -1.5% (226) (7.2%) -240% (177) (5.6%) NM (282) (8.9%) NM 42.2% (163) (5.2%) NM (0.75) NM 218.3 (0.39) NM (0.25) -170.7%

Q2A 3,022 -22.6% -21.7% 1,004 33.2% -32.9% 1,187 39.3% -16.2% (183) (6.1%) -326% (135) (4.5%) NM (241) (8.0%) NM 39.0% (147) (4.9%) NM (0.67) NM 219.3 (0.50) NM (0.37) -296.9%

Q3A 2,927 -26.6% -26.1% 952 32.5% -36.1% 1,108 37.9% -33.3% (156) (5.3%) -9% (114) (3.9%) NM (211) (7.2%) NM 41.7% (123) (4.2%) NM (0.56) NM 219.4 (1.04) NM (0.93) NM

Q4A 3,884 -28.4% -31.7% 924 23.8% -43.6% 1,669 43.0% -2.4% (745) (19.2%) 921% (569) (14.6%) NM (802) (20.6%) NM 31.2% (552) (14.2%) NM (2.51) NM 219.5 (1.78) NM (1.70) -311.4%

2012A 12,985 -24.8% -25.2% 4,066 31.3% -34.6% 5,376 41.4% -13.6% (1,310) (10.1%) NM (995) (7.7%) NM (1,536) (11.8%) NM 35.9% (985) (7.6%) NM (4.49) NM 219.2 (3.72) NM (3.24) -312%

Q1A 2,635 -16.4% -16.6% 812 30.8% -31.5% 1,298 49.3% -8.1% (486) (18.4%) NM (461) (17.5%) NM (547) (20.8%) NM 36.4% (348) (13.2%) NM (1.58) NM 219.9 (1.38) NM (1.31) NM

Q2A 2,663 -11.9% -11.9% 787 29.6% -21.6% 1,182 44.4% -0.4% (395) (14.8%) NM (370) (13.9%) NM (604) (22.7%) NM 3.0% (586) (22.0%) NM (2.66) NM 220.6 (1.21) NM (1.17) NM

Q3E 2,754 -5.9% -6.0% 857 31.1% -10.0% 1,233 44.8% 11.3% (376) (13.7%) NM (346) (12.6%) NM (471) (17.1%) NM 0.0% (471) (17.1%) NM (2.14) NM 220.6 (2.14) NM (2.00) NM

Q4E 3,719 -4.3% 0.0% 1,023 27.5% 10.7% 1,337 36.0% -19.9% (314) (8.5%) NM (284) (7.6%) NM (409) (11.0%) NM 0.0% (409) (11.0%) NM (1.86) NM 220.6 (1.86) NM (1.72) NM

2013E 11,771 -9.3% -8.3% 3,478 29.5% -14.5% 5,050 42.9% -6.1% (1,572) (13.4%) NM (1,462) (12.4%) NM (2,032) (17.3%) NM 10.7% (1,815) (15.4%) NM (8.23) NM 220.4 (6.59) NM (6.20) NM

Q1E 2,769 5.1% 5.0% 983 35.5% 21.1% 1,229 44.4% -5.3% (246) (8.9%) NM (226) (8.2%) NM (341) (12.3%) NM 0.0% (341) (12.3%) NM (1.55) NM 220.6 (1.55) NM (1.45) NM

Q2E 2,886 8.4% 8.0% 1,013 35.1% 28.7% 1,206 41.8% 2.0% (193) (6.7%) NM (173) (6.0%) NM (288) (10.0%) NM 0.0% (288) (10.0%) NM (1.31) NM 220.6 (1.31) NM (1.22) NM

Q3E 2,922 6.1% 6.0% 1,023 35.0% 19.4% 1,236 42.3% 0.2% (213) (7.3%) NM (193) (6.6%) NM (308) (10.5%) NM 0.0% (308) (10.5%) NM (1.40) NM 220.6 (1.40) NM (1.31) NM

Q4E 3,868 4.0% 4.0% 1,218 31.5% 19.1% 1,313 33.9% -1.8% (95) (2.4%) NM (75) (1.9%) NM (190) (4.9%) NM 0.0% (190) (4.9%) NM (0.86) NM 220.6 (0.86) NM (0.77) NM

2014E 12,445 5.7% 5.6% 4,237 34.0% 21.8% 4,984 40.0% -1.3% (747) (6.0%) NM (667) (5.4%) NM (1,127) (9.1%) NM 0.0% (1,127) (9.1%) NM (5.11) NM 220.6 (5.11) NM (4.75) NM

Sales for Q4-03 and 2003 include an extra week in the retail calendar; excluding sales in the 53rd week, total net sales decreased 0.7% in 2003 and increased 4.7% in 2004

Sales for Q4-06 and 2006 include an extra week in the retail calendar; excluding sales in the 53rd week, total net sales increased 4.6% in 2006 and 1.1% in 2007

Please refer to "Appendix - Important Disclosures" and Analyst Certification

8/20/2013

9Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 10: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

Page 2

Date Printed: 8/12/2011 J.C. Penney Company, Inc. Mark R. Altschwager, CFA, 414-765-3572

Fiscal Year: January (JCP - NYSE) Blair M. Pircon, 312-609-5449

Jacob R. Zitter, 312-609-4496

(in Millions)

Balance Sheet 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2-13 Cash Flow Statement 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

ASSETS Net Income 249 378 280 -816 -1,453 -1,127

Cash & Equivalents 3,011 2,622 1,507 930 1,535 + Depreciation & Amortization 495 511 518 543 577 624

Merchandise Inventory (net of LIFO reserves) 3,024 3,213 2,916 2,341 3,155 - Change in Non-Cash W.C./Other -829 297 -22 -263 117 -22

Income Taxes Receivable 395 334 413 57 0 Cash Flow from Operations 1,573 592 820 -10 -993 -481

Prepaid Expenses and Other 222 201 245 355 324 - Capital Expenditures 600 499 634 810 953 300

Total Current 6,652 6,370 5,081 3,683 5,014 - Dividend 183 189 178 86 0 0

Free Cash Flow 790 -96 8 -906 -1,946 -781

Property and Equipment, net 5,357 5,231 5,176 5,353 5,820

Prepaid Pension 0 763 0 0 22 Op. Cash Flow Per Share $6.75 $2.49 $3.77 ($0.05) ($4.50) ($2.18)

Other Assets 572 678 1,167 745 798 Free Cash Flow Per Share $3.39 ($0.40) $0.04 ($4.13) ($8.83) ($3.54)

Total Assets 12,581 13,042 11,424 9,781 11,654 Free Cash Flow Yield 13.6% -1.2% 0.1% -29.5% -63.1% -25.3%

LIABILITIES & EQUITY Du Pont Formula 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

Trade Payables 1,226 1,133 1,022 1,162 1,276 Net Margins (N/S) 1.4% 2.1% -0.9% -7.6% -15.4% -9.1%

Accrued Expenses and Other 1,630 1,514 1,504 1,395 1,350 Assets Turnover (S/A) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2

Current Maturities of Long-Term Debt 393 0 231 26 900 Leverage (A/E) 2.8 2.5 2.6 3.0

Total Current 3,249 2,647 2,757 2,583 3,526 Return on Equity 5.6% 7.4% -3.2% -27.5%

Long-Term Debt 2,999 3,099 2,871 2,956 4,921 Valuation Parameters 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

Long-Term Deferred Taxes 817 1,192 882 388 242 Price High $37.21 $35.12 $41.86 $43.13

Other Liabilities 738 644 913 683 645 Low $13.71 $19.42 $23.44 $16.28

Close $24.83 $32.29 $41.42 $19.88

Common Equity 4,778 5,460 4,001 3,171 2,320

Total 12,581 13,042 11,424 9,781 11,654 Historical P/E High 34.8 22.1 -59.9 -9.6

Low 12.8 12.2 -33.5 -3.6

Ratio Analysis: 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2-13 Historical P/CF High 5.5 14.1 11.1 -945.4

Current Ratio 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 Low 2.0 7.8 6.2 -356.9

Working Capital 392 1,101 817 170 (47)

Work Cap/Assets 3.1% 8.4% 7.2% 1.7% -0.4% Debt Adj. Market Value Current

Inventory Turns 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.9 Market Value 5,788 7,685 9,005 4,358 3,088

Total Debt/Capital 41.5% 36.2% 43.7% 48.5% 71.5% ST+LT Debt 3,392 3,099 3,102 2,982 2,982

LT Debt/Equity 62.8% 56.8% 71.8% 93.2% 212.1% Cash & Investments 3,011 2,622 1,507 930 930

Total DAMV 6,169 8,162 10,600 6,410 5,140

Other Data: 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2-13

Sales/Net Selling Sq Ft $206 $210 $212 $161 EBITDA 1,158 1,343 516 -767 -995 -123

Selling Sq Ft at YE (mil) 111.7 111.6 111.2 111.6 EBITDAP* 1,456 1,564 603 -452 -885 -87

Stores Open at period end 1,108 1,106 1,102 1,104 DAMV / EBITDAP 4.2 5.2 17.6 -14.2 -5.8 -59.2

*EBITDAP excludes qualified (non-cash) pension expense

10Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 11: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

Page 3

Date Printed: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. Mark R. Altschwager, CFA, 414-765-3572

Fiscal Year: January (JCP - NYSE) Blair M. Pircon, 312-609-5449

Jacob R. Zitter, 312-609-4496

Operating Expense Analysis

Depreciation & Other Charges

Qual Supp Amortization Exp (Inc) Exp (Inc) Total

Year $ % Chg $ $ $ % Chg $ % Chg $ $ % Chg $ % Chg

2004 5,026 27.8% -13.8% 82 38 120 0.7% -7.7% 359 2.0% -7.0% 12 5,517 30.5% -12.9% 233 1.3% -10.7%

2005 5,130 27.3% 2.1% 69 43 112 0.6% -6.7% 372 2.0% 3.6% (54) 0 5,560 29.6% 0.8% 169 0.9% -27.5%

2006 5,497 27.6% 7.2% 9 42 51 0.3% -54.5% 389 2.0% 4.6% (34) 0 5,903 29.7% 6.2% 130 0.7% -23.1%

2007 5,448 27.4% -0.9% (97) 52 (45) -0.2% -188.2% 426 2.1% 9.5% (46) 0 5,783 29.1% -2.0% 153 0.8% 17.7%

2008 5,426 29.4% -0.4% (133) 43 (90) -0.5% 100.0% 469 2.5% 10.1% (25) 0 5,780 31.3% -0.1% 225 1.2% 47.1%

Q1 1,264 32.5% -4.5% 81 9 90 2.3% NA 120 3.1% 9.1% (6) 0 1,468 37.8% 4.7% 63 1.6% 18.9%

Q2 1,256 31.9% -1.8% 73 10 83 2.1% NA 121 3.1% 5.2% (7) 0 1,453 36.9% 6.6% 68 1.7% 23.6%

Q3 1,380 33.0% 3.7% 73 10 83 2.0% NA 123 2.9% 4.2% 3 0 1,589 38.0% 12.8% 64 1.5% 14.3%

Q4 1,510 27.2% 1.1% 71 10 81 1.5% NA 131 2.4% 4.0% 15 0 1,737 31.3% 8.2% 65 1.2% 6.6%

2009 5,410 30.8% -0.3% 298 39 337 1.9% NM 495 2.8% 5.5% 5 0 6,247 35.6% 8.1% 260 1.5% 15.6%

Q1A 1,292 32.9% 2.2% 55 9 64 1.6% -28.9% 125 3.2% 4.2% (6) 0 1,475 37.5% 0.5% 59 1.5% -6.3%

Q2A 1,275 32.4% 1.5% 55 8 63 1.6% -24.1% 126 3.2% 4.1% (7) 0 1,457 37.0% 0.3% 57 1.4% -16.2%

Q3A 1,326 31.7% -3.9% 56 8 64 1.5% -22.9% 128 3.1% 4.1% (7) 0 1,511 36.1% -4.9% 57 1.4% -10.9%

Q4A 1,465 25.7% -3.0% 55 9 64 1.1% -21.0% 132 2.3% 0.8% 24 0 1,685 29.5% -3.0% 58 1.0% -10.8%

2010A 5,358 30.2% -1.0% 221 34 255 1.4% -24.3% 511 2.9% 3.2% 4 0 6,128 34.5% -1.9% 231 1.3% -11.2%

Q1A 1,281 32.5% -0.9% 22 7 29 0.7% -54.7% 128 3.2% 2.4% (13) 9 1,434 36.4% -2.8% 58 1.5% -1.7%

Q2A 1,243 31.8% -2.5% 21 7 28 0.7% -55.6% 128 3.3% 1.6% (6) 23 1,416 36.3% -2.8% 57 1.5% 0.0%

Q3A 1,242 31.2% -6.3% 22 9 31 0.8% -51.6% 127 3.2% -0.8% (5) 265 1,660 41.6% 9.9% 55 1.4% -3.5%

Q4A 1,343 24.8% -8.3% 22 11 33 0.6% -48.4% 135 2.5% 2.3% 45 154 1,710 31.5% 1.5% 57 1.1% -1.7%

2011A 5,109 29.6% -4.6% 87 34 121 0.7% -52.5% 518 3.0% 1.4% 21 451 6,220 36.0% 1.5% 227 1.3% -1.7%

Q1A 1,160 36.8% -9.4% 49 9 58 1.8% 100.0% 125 4.0% -2.3% (7) 76 1,412 44.8% -1.5% 56 1.8% -3.4%

Q2A 1,050 34.7% -15.5% 48 10 58 1.9% 107.1% 128 4.2% 0.0% (208) 159 1,187 39.3% -16.2% 58 1.9% 1.8%

Q3A 1,087 37.1% -12.5% 42 9 51 1.7% 64.5% 133 4.5% 4.7% (197) 34 1,108 37.9% -33.3% 55 1.9% 0.0%

Q4A 1,209 31.1% -10.0% 176 10 186 4.8% 463.6% 157 4.0% 16.3% 88 29 1,669 43.0% -2.4% 57 1.5% 0.0%

2012A 4,506 34.7% -11.8% 315 38 353 2.7% 191.7% 543 4.2% 4.8% (324) 298 5,376 41.4% -53.4% 226 1.7% -0.4%

Q1A 1,078 40.9% -7.1% 25 9 34 1.3% -41.4% 136 5.2% 8.8% (22) 72 1,298 49.3% -8.1% 61 2.3% 8.9%

Q2A 1,026 38.5% -2.3% 25 9 34 1.3% -41.4% 143 5.4% 11.7% (68) 47 1,182 44.4% -0.4% 209 7.8% 260.3%

Q3E 1,050 38.1% -3.4% 30 9 39 1.4% -23.5% 147 5.3% 10.5% (3) 0 1,233 44.8% 11.3% 95 3.4% 72.7%

Q4E 1,150 30.9% -4.9% 30 9 39 1.0% -79.0% 151 4.1% -3.8% (3) 0 1,337 36.0% -19.9% 95 2.6% 66.7%

2013E 4,304 36.6% -4.5% 110 36 146 1.2% -58.6% 577 4.9% 6.3% (96) 119 5,050 42.9% -6.1% 460 3.9% 103.5%

Q1E 1,050 37.9% -2.6% 20 9 29 1.0% -14.7% 153 5.5% 12.5% (3) 0 1,229 44.4% -5.3% 95 3.4% 55.7%

Q2E 1,025 35.5% -0.1% 20 9 29 1.0% -14.7% 155 5.4% 8.4% (3) 0 1,206 41.8% 2.0% 95 3.3% -54.5%

Q3E 1,050 35.9% 0.0% 20 9 29 1.0% -25.6% 157 5.4% 6.8% 0 0 1,236 42.3% 0.2% 95 3.3% 0.0%

Q4E 1,125 29.1% -2.2% 20 9 29 0.7% -25.6% 159 4.1% 5.3% 0 0 1,313 33.9% -1.8% 95 2.5% 0.0%

2014E 4,250 34.1% -1.3% 80 36 116 0.9% -20.5% 624 5.0% 8.1% (6) 0 4,984 40.0% -1.3% 380 3.1% -17.4%

In Q4-08, SG&A expenses were reclassified for pension expenses (applied retroactively through F2004)

Total Pension

Expense/(Income)

Pension Exp (Inc)

8/20/2013

Selling General

& Administrative

Interest

Expense (Income)

11Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 12: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification

Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q38

16

24

32

40

48

2011 2012 2013

11/04/10N:$30

12/02/10N:$32

01/24/11N:$33

02/25/11N:$34

04/07/11N:$35

05/16/11N:$38

07/07/11N:$36

08/12/11N:$32

09/01/11N:$31

01/05/12N:$29

01/27/12N:$39

02/27/12N:$43

04/12/12N:$37

05/15/12N:$34

05/16/12N:$32

06/19/12N:$28

07/27/12N:$24

08/13/12N:$25

09/20/12N:$31

11/12/12N:$23

02/25/13N:$22

02/28/13N:$20

04/09/13N:$17

05/08/13N:$18

05/17/13N:$19

Rating and Price Target History for: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) as of 08-19-2013

Created by BlueMatrix

1 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of JCP.

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Page 13: J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)

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