Japan's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory...2016/01/28  · Naofumi Kosaka Greenhouse Gas Inventory...

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Naofumi Kosaka Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies Jan. 28 th , 2016 IPCC Open Symposium Science and policy to cope with climate change and the importance of GHG inventory to assess mitigation progress Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
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Transcript of Japan's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory...2016/01/28  · Naofumi Kosaka Greenhouse Gas Inventory...

  • Naofumi KosakaGreenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan

    National Institute for Environmental Studies

    Jan. 28th, 2016IPCC Open Symposium

    Science and policy to cope with climate change and the importance of GHG inventory to assess mitigation progress

    Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

  • National level →National inventories(Prepared and submitted based on provisions of UNFCCC)

    Municipality level →Local government action plan(Prepared and published based on the Act on Promotion of Global Warming

    Countermeasures)

    Corporate level→GHG emissions accounting, reporting and disclosure system(Estimated and reported based on the Act)

    Project level →Carbon offset (e.g. J-Credit Scheme)(Used for credits)

    Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions by actor

    UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeGHG: Greenhouse gas

    2

  • 1.3

    1.0

    1.1

    1.2

    1,261 Mt

    +6.5 %

    -0.4 %

    +3.6 %Five-year average

    1,278 Mt(+1.4% from BY)

    +1.6 % from BY

    KP-CP1 target:- 6 % below base year

    (1,186 Mt)

    -4.4 %

    1,350 Mt

    ③Kyoto mechanisms

    credits(5.9% of BY)

    ①Actualtotal emissions

    ②Forest and other carbon

    sinks(3.9% of BY)

    If the forest and other carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms credits are taken into account, the five-year average for total emissions during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (KP-CP1) (FY2008-FY2012) shows an 8.4% decrease compared to the total emissions of the base year; therefore Japan will have achieved its target for the KP-CP1 (-6 % below base year level).

    Emissions(Billion t-CO2 eq.)

    0.9

    Base Year (BY) 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 - 2012(In principle, 1990) (five-year average)

    ①-② -③Five-year average:

    -8.4% from BY

    Achievement status of Japan’s target for KP-CP1

    3

  • 600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400 19

    9019

    9119

    9219

    9319

    9419

    9519

    9619

    9719

    9819

    9920

    0020

    0120

    0220

    0320

    0420

    0520

    0620

    0720

    0820

    0920

    1020

    1120

    1220

    1320

    14…

    (単

    位百

    万トン

    CO2 換

    算)

    (年度)

    NF3SF6PFCsHFCsN2OCH4CO2

    0

    • Japan’s total GHG emissions in FY2014 (preliminary figure) were 1,365 Mt-CO2 eq.• -3.0% from FY2013, -2.2% from FY2005, +7.5% from FY1990• CO2 emissions accounted for over 90% of total GHG emissions.

    (Pre

    limin

    ary

    figur

    e)

    Japan’s GHG emissions by gas

    (Fiscal year (FY))

    (Uni

    t: m

    illio

    n to

    nnes

    CO

    2eq

    uiva

    lent

    (Mt-C

    O2

    eq.))

    4

  • Trend of CO2 emissions by sector (allocated)Emissions from electricity and heat generation are allocated to final consumption sectors.

    5

  • Grea

    t Eas

    t Jap

    an E

    arth

    quak

    e

    Trend of CO2 emissions by sector (allocated)

    Increased traffic demandLarger automobiles

    Larger floor areaProgress in office automation

    Demand for smaller automobilesImproved fuel efficiency

    Larger/diversified home applianceIncreased number of households

    Fina

    ncia

    l cris

    is

    6

  • PREPARATION OF JAPAN’S NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES

    7

  • Ministry of the Environment

    Overall responsible entity

    UNFCCC Secretariat

    Ministry of Foreign Affairs

    Relevantministries/orga

    nizations

    Committee forGreenhouse Gas

    Emissions EstimationMethods

    温室効果ガス排出・吸収量の算定機関

    Committee to decidemethodologies

    Submission

    METI

    MLITMAFF

    etc.

    Dataprovision

    Submission

    Request fordata

    Request for GHGinventory preparation

    Submission of thedraft GHG inventory

    Request forexamination

    Request forrevisions andimprovements

    Data provision

    Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office ofJapan (GIO),

    National Institute for EnvironmentalStudies

    SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 2006(Sheet 1 of 1) Submission 2008 v1.1

    JAPAN

    GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs (2) PFCs (2) SF6

    (2) Total SINK CATEGORIESTotal (Net Emissions) (1) 1,182,051 23,663 25,576 6,618 6,323 4,349 1,248,5801. Energy 1,185,910 1,268 7,525 1,194,702

    A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1,185,874 841 7,525 1,194,2401. Energy Industries 387,049 34 1,427 388,5092. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 373,821 293 2,733 376,8483. Transport 246,802 234 3,003 250,0404. Other Sectors 177,235 280 343 177,8575. Other 966 1 19 986

    B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 36 426 0 4622. Industrial Processes 53,885 133 1,625 6,618 6,323 4,349 72,9323. Solvent and Other Product Use NA,NE 266 2664. Agriculture 15,352 12,017 27,368

    A. Enteric Fermentation 7,035 7,035B. Manure Management 2,471 4,733 7,205C. Rice Cultivation 5,743 5,743D. Agricultural Soils(3) NA 7,210 7,210F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 102 74 176G. Other NO NO NO

    5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -91,544 26 17 -91,501A. Forest Land -83,389 2 0 -83,386B. Cropland 307 2 15 324C. Grassland -1,139 0 0 -1,138D. Wetlands 181 1 0 183E. Settlements -7,809 13 1 -7,795F. Other Land 303 8 1 312

    6. Waste 33,800 6,885 4,126 44,811A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NA,NE,NO 5,392 5,392B. Waste-water Handling 1,409 1,178 2,587C. Waste Incineration 33,279 83 2,925 36,287D. Other 521 IE,NO 24 545

    (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included.(3) Parties which previously reported CO2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR.(4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

    CO2 equivalent (Gg )

    (1) For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, thesigns for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

    GHG inventorypreparation

    CRFNIR

    Japan’s institutional arrangement

    8

  • Gases and sectors

    GHG Sector

    1. Energy Fuel combustion Fuel combustionFugitive emissions

    Fuel combustionFugitive emissions

    2. Industrial Processes and Other Product Use (IPPU)

    Cement production, Lime production,

    Limestone use, etc.

    Chemicals production (ethylene,

    carbon black, etc.)

    Chemicals production (nitric acid, adipic acid,

    etc.)

    Semiconductors, Refrigerants,

    Solvents, Electrical

    equipment, etc.

    3. AgricultureEnteric fermentation,

    Manure management, Rice

    cultivation, etc.

    Manure management, Agricultural soil, etc. -

    4. LULUCF Removals by forest, etc. Soil drainage, etc. Soil mineralization, etc. -

    5. Waste Waste incineration

    Waste disposal, Wastewater treatment,

    Waste incineration

    Wastewater treatment,

    Waste incineration-

    9

    CO2 N2OCH4

    HFCsPFCsSF6NF3

    LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

  • Emissions

    Emission factors

    (EF)②

    Activity data(AD)①

    = ×Global

    warming potentials

    (GWP)③

    ×

    × ×1

    (CO2 factor)Gasoline

    consumption(heat quantity)

    =CO2

    emissions from

    gasoline

    Statistics

    Emission factor of gasoline

    Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions

    GHG inventories are prepared not by direct measurement of air but by calculation from statistics, etc.

    10

  • Major statistics→Activity data

    Relevantministries

    Research Report on Recycling Amounts*→Waste incineration, etc.

    MOEJ

    General Energy Statistics→Fossil fuel consumption ANRE

    Motor Vehicle Transport Statistics→Kilometer traveled, etc.

    MLIT

    Livestock Statistics→Cattel population, etc.

    MAFFStatistics kept in the GIO office

    ①Activity dataValue indicating the scale of an activity

    * Report of the Research on the state of Wide-range Movement and Cyclical Use of WastesMOEJ: Ministry of the EnvironmentANRE: Agency for Natural Resources and EnergyMLIT: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and TourismMAFF: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

    Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions

    11

  • Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions

    (e.g.)– CO2 emissions when a certain amount of heat is produced

    from gasoline combustion [g-CO2/MJ]

    CH4

    Per year

    CO2

    Per calorific value

    GHG emissions per unit activity

    – CH4 emissions from cow burps over a year[kg CH4/(head*year)]

    ②Emission factors

    12

  • • Actual measurement at factories, etc. (CH4 and N2O from the chemical industry, etc.)• Domestic research results (CH4 and N2O from the agriculture and waste sectors, etc.)• Default values in the IPCC Guidelines (N2O from aircraft, etc.)• Calculation from actual measurement values and scientific theoretical values (energy-

    origin CO2, etc.)

    Measurement of CH4 emissionsfrom the experimental paddy field Measurement of CH4 emissions from sheep

    exhalations (New Zealand)

    Courtesy: National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences Courtesy: NIWA

    Methodologies to estimate GHG emissionsSources of emission factors

    13

  • Reflecting the emission factor on the GHG inventory

    If there is no national emission factor, the default values of the IPCC Guidelines are used.

    A new emission factor was reported in a research paper.Paper on

    rice cultivation

    CH4

    The Committee examines the validity to determine whether it should be employed.

    Approval and request for revision

    Agenda for the Committee

    Potential nationalemission factor

    ValidXX kg-CH4 /ha

    Methodologies to estimate GHG emissionsExample of a national emission factor employed in the agricultural sector

    14The Committee: Committee for the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation

  • ③global warming potentialA numerical value obtained from calculating theinfluence of each gas on global warming for a certainperiod with 1 as the influence of CO2.GHG GWPCO2 1CH4 25N2O 298HFCs 1,430 etc.PFCs 7,390 etc.SF6 22,800NF3 17,200

    (100-year time horizon from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)

    CH4 =CO2

    CO2CO2CO2

    CO2CO2 CO2

    1kg 25kg

    Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions

    15

  • Imports

    Crude oil100

    Oil refinery

    Loss10

    Crude oil100

    Kerosene20

    Fuel oil40

    Gasoline30 Transport

    Gasoline 30

    ResidentialKerosene 20

    IndustriesFuel oil 40

    CO2

    CO2

    CO2

    CO2

    Example: Method of Energy-origin CO2 emissions

    • Use General Energy Statistics (compiled by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy)

    • General Energy Statistics show in which of the sectors (energy, industries, transport, residential, commercial and other sectors) fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) are consumed.

    16

  • Main change on inventories submitted in 2015

    17

    Revised 1996 IPCC GuidelinesGood Practice Guidance (2000)GPG-LULUCF (2003)

    2006 IPCC Guidelines2013 Wetlands Supplement2013 KP Supplement

    • Estimation methodologies are revised annually in order to be more accurate.

    • Major revisions are found in inventories submitted in 2015.

    http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs4.htmlhttp://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs4.htmlhttp://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs5.htmlhttp://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs5.htmlhttp://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs6.htmlhttp://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs6.html

  • Main change on inventories submitted in 2015

    • Change of sectors/categories– “2. Industrial processes” and “3. Solvent and Other Product Use” were

    merged to “2. Industrial processes and Other Product Use”• Example: N2O use for medical applications are currently reported under 2.G.3 (previously, under

    3.D.1).

    • Addition of gases– Addition of NF3; Addition of species of HFCs and PFCs

    • Addition of sources/sinks– Example: Fugitive emissions from abandoned coal mines, harvested wood

    products, etc.

    • Change of GWP– Example: GWP for CH4 is 25 instead of 21.

    • Change of methodologies– Example: Revision of General Energy Statistics, application of a model (rice

    cultivation), etc.

    18

  • Summary

    • Japan prepares national GHG inventories based on the IPCC Guidelines.

    • GHG inventories are prepared by calculation from statistics, etc.

    • Estimation methodologies are revised annually in order to be more accurate.

    19

  • Thank you for your attention.

    GIO websitehttp://www-gio.nies.go.jp

    SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 2006(Sheet 1 of 1) Submission 2008 v1.1

    JAPAN

    GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs (2) PFCs (2) SF6

    (2) Total SINK CATEGORIESTotal (Net Emissions) (1) 1,182,051 23,663 25,576 6,618 6,323 4,349 1,248,5801. Energy 1,185,910 1,268 7,525 1,194,702

    A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1,185,874 841 7,525 1,194,2401. Energy Industries 387,049 34 1,427 388,5092. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 373,821 293 2,733 376,8483. Transport 246,802 234 3,003 250,0404. Other Sectors 177,235 280 343 177,8575. Other 966 1 19 986

    B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 36 426 0 4622. Industrial Processes 53,885 133 1,625 6,618 6,323 4,349 72,9323. Solvent and Other Product Use NA,NE 266 2664. Agriculture 15,352 12,017 27,368

    A. Enteric Fermentation 7,035 7,035B. Manure Management 2,471 4,733 7,205C. Rice Cultivation 5,743 5,743D. Agricultural Soils(3) NA 7,210 7,210F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 102 74 176G. Other NO NO NO

    5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -91,544 26 17 -91,501A. Forest Land -83,389 2 0 -83,386B. Cropland 307 2 15 324C. Grassland -1,139 0 0 -1,138D. Wetlands 181 1 0 183E. Settlements -7,809 13 1 -7,795F. Other Land 303 8 1 312

    6. Waste 33,800 6,885 4,126 44,811A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NA,NE,NO 5,392 5,392B. Waste-water Handling 1,409 1,178 2,587C. Waste Incineration 33,279 83 2,925 36,287D. Other 521 IE,NO 24 545

    (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included.(3) Parties which previously reported CO2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR.(4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

    CO2 equivalent (Gg )

    (1) For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, thesigns for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

    CRFNIR

    Press release GHG data20

    Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas InventoryEstimation of greenhouse gas emissions by actorAchievement status of Japan’s target for KP-CP1Japan’s GHG emissions by gasTrend of CO2 emissions by sector (allocated)Trend of CO2 emissions by sector (allocated)Preparation of Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas InventoriesJapan’s institutional arrangementGases and sectorsMethodologies to estimate GHG emissionsMethodologies to estimate GHG emissionsMethodologies to estimate GHG emissionsMethodologies to estimate GHG emissionsMethodologies to estimate GHG emissionsMethodologies to estimate GHG emissionsExample: Method of Energy-origin CO2 emissionsMain change on inventories submitted in 2015Main change on inventories submitted in 2015Summaryスライド番号 20