Japan's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory...2016/01/28  · Naofumi Kosaka Greenhouse Gas Inventory...

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Naofumi Kosaka Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies Jan. 28 th , 2016 IPCC Open Symposium Science and policy to cope with climate change and the importance of GHG inventory to assess mitigation progress Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Transcript of Japan's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory...2016/01/28  · Naofumi Kosaka Greenhouse Gas Inventory...

Page 1: Japan's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory...2016/01/28  · Naofumi Kosaka Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies Jan. 28th, 2016 IPCC

Naofumi KosakaGreenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies

Jan. 28th, 2016IPCC Open Symposium

Science and policy to cope with climate change and the importance of GHG inventory to assess mitigation progress

Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

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National level →National inventories(Prepared and submitted based on provisions of UNFCCC)

Municipality level →Local government action plan(Prepared and published based on the Act on Promotion of Global Warming

Countermeasures)

Corporate level→GHG emissions accounting, reporting and disclosure system(Estimated and reported based on the Act)

Project level →Carbon offset (e.g. J-Credit Scheme)(Used for credits)

Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions by actor

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeGHG: Greenhouse gas

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1.3

1.0

1.1

1.2

1,261 Mt

+6.5 %

-0.4 %

+3.6 %Five-year average

1,278 Mt(+1.4% from BY)

+1.6 % from BY

KP-CP1 target:- 6 % below base year

(1,186 Mt)

-4.4 %

1,350 Mt

③Kyoto mechanisms

credits(5.9% of BY)

①Actualtotal emissions

②Forest and other carbon

sinks(3.9% of BY)

If the forest and other carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms credits are taken into account, the five-year average for total emissions during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (KP-CP1) (FY2008-FY2012) shows an 8.4% decrease compared to the total emissions of the base year; therefore Japan will have achieved its target for the KP-CP1 (-6 % below base year level).

Emissions(Billion t-CO2 eq.)

0.9

Base Year (BY) 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 - 2012(In principle, 1990) (five-year average)

①-② -③Five-year average:

-8.4% from BY

Achievement status of Japan’s target for KP-CP1

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600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400 19

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

14…

(単

位百

万トン

CO2 換

算)

(年度)

NF3SF6PFCsHFCsN2OCH4CO2

0

• Japan’s total GHG emissions in FY2014 (preliminary figure) were 1,365 Mt-CO2 eq.• -3.0% from FY2013, -2.2% from FY2005, +7.5% from FY1990• CO2 emissions accounted for over 90% of total GHG emissions.

(Pre

limin

ary

figur

e)

Japan’s GHG emissions by gas

(Fiscal year (FY))

(Uni

t: m

illio

n to

nnes

CO

2eq

uiva

lent

(Mt-C

O2

eq.))

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Trend of CO2 emissions by sector (allocated)Emissions from electricity and heat generation are allocated to final consumption sectors.

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Grea

t Eas

t Jap

an E

arth

quak

e

Trend of CO2 emissions by sector (allocated)

Increased traffic demandLarger automobiles

Larger floor areaProgress in office automation

Demand for smaller automobilesImproved fuel efficiency

Larger/diversified home applianceIncreased number of households

Fina

ncia

l cris

is

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PREPARATION OF JAPAN’S NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES

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Ministry of the Environment

Overall responsible entity

UNFCCC Secretariat

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Relevantministries/orga

nizations

Committee forGreenhouse Gas

Emissions EstimationMethods

温室効果ガス排出・吸収量の算定機関

Committee to decidemethodologies

Submission

METI

MLITMAFF

etc.

Dataprovision

Submission

Request fordata

Request for GHGinventory preparation

Submission of thedraft GHG inventory

Request forexamination

Request forrevisions andimprovements

Data provision

Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office ofJapan (GIO),

National Institute for EnvironmentalStudies

SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 2006(Sheet 1 of 1) Submission 2008 v1.1

JAPAN

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs (2) PFCs (2) SF6

(2) Total SINK CATEGORIESTotal (Net Emissions) (1) 1,182,051 23,663 25,576 6,618 6,323 4,349 1,248,5801. Energy 1,185,910 1,268 7,525 1,194,702

A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1,185,874 841 7,525 1,194,2401. Energy Industries 387,049 34 1,427 388,5092. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 373,821 293 2,733 376,8483. Transport 246,802 234 3,003 250,0404. Other Sectors 177,235 280 343 177,8575. Other 966 1 19 986

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 36 426 0 4622. Industrial Processes 53,885 133 1,625 6,618 6,323 4,349 72,9323. Solvent and Other Product Use NA,NE 266 2664. Agriculture 15,352 12,017 27,368

A. Enteric Fermentation 7,035 7,035B. Manure Management 2,471 4,733 7,205C. Rice Cultivation 5,743 5,743D. Agricultural Soils(3) NA 7,210 7,210F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 102 74 176G. Other NO NO NO

5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -91,544 26 17 -91,501A. Forest Land -83,389 2 0 -83,386B. Cropland 307 2 15 324C. Grassland -1,139 0 0 -1,138D. Wetlands 181 1 0 183E. Settlements -7,809 13 1 -7,795F. Other Land 303 8 1 312

6. Waste 33,800 6,885 4,126 44,811A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NA,NE,NO 5,392 5,392B. Waste-water Handling 1,409 1,178 2,587C. Waste Incineration 33,279 83 2,925 36,287D. Other 521 IE,NO 24 545

(2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included.(3) Parties which previously reported CO2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR.(4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

(1) For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, thesigns for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

GHG inventorypreparation

CRFNIR

Japan’s institutional arrangement

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Gases and sectors

GHG Sector

1. Energy Fuel combustionFuel combustion

Fugitive emissionsFuel combustion

Fugitive emissions-

2. Industrial Processes and Other Product Use (IPPU)

Cement production, Lime production,

Limestone use, etc.

Chemicals production (ethylene,

carbon black, etc.)

Chemicals production (nitric acid, adipic acid,

etc.)

Semiconductors, Refrigerants,

Solvents, Electrical

equipment, etc.

3. AgricultureEnteric fermentation,

Manure management, Rice

cultivation, etc.

Manure management, Agricultural soil, etc. -

4. LULUCF Removals by forest, etc. Soil drainage, etc. Soil mineralization, etc. -

5. Waste Waste incineration

Waste disposal, Wastewater treatment,

Waste incineration

Wastewater treatment,

Waste incineration-

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CO2 N2OCH4

HFCsPFCsSF6

NF3

LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

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Emissions

Emission factors

(EF)②

Activity data(AD)①

= ×

Global warming

potentials (GWP)③

×

× × 1(CO2 factor)

Gasoline consumption

(heat quantity)=

CO2emissions

from gasoline

Statistics

Emission factor of gasoline

Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions

GHG inventories are prepared not by direct measurement of air but by calculation from statistics, etc.

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Major statistics→Activity data

Relevantministries

Research Report on Recycling Amounts*→Waste incineration, etc.

MOEJ

General Energy Statistics→Fossil fuel consumption ANRE

Motor Vehicle Transport Statistics→Kilometer traveled, etc.

MLIT

Livestock Statistics→Cattel population, etc.

MAFFStatistics kept in the GIO office

①Activity dataValue indicating the scale of an activity

* Report of the Research on the state of Wide-range Movement and Cyclical Use of WastesMOEJ: Ministry of the EnvironmentANRE: Agency for Natural Resources and EnergyMLIT: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and TourismMAFF: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions

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Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions

(e.g.)– CO2 emissions when a certain amount of heat is produced

from gasoline combustion [g-CO2/MJ]

CH4

Per year

CO2

Per calorific value

GHG emissions per unit activity

– CH4 emissions from cow burps over a year[kg CH4/(head*year)]

②Emission factors

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• Actual measurement at factories, etc. (CH4 and N2O from the chemical industry, etc.)• Domestic research results (CH4 and N2O from the agriculture and waste sectors, etc.)• Default values in the IPCC Guidelines (N2O from aircraft, etc.)• Calculation from actual measurement values and scientific theoretical values (energy-

origin CO2, etc.)

Measurement of CH4 emissionsfrom the experimental paddy field Measurement of CH4 emissions from sheep

exhalations (New Zealand)

Courtesy: National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences Courtesy: NIWA

Methodologies to estimate GHG emissionsSources of emission factors

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Reflecting the emission factor on the GHG inventory

If there is no national emission factor, the default values of the IPCC Guidelines are used.

A new emission factor was reported in a research paper.Paper on

rice cultivation

CH4

The Committee examines the validity to determine whether it should be employed.

Approval and request for revision

Agenda for the Committee

Potential nationalemission factor

ValidXX kg-CH4 /ha

Methodologies to estimate GHG emissionsExample of a national emission factor employed in the agricultural sector

14The Committee: Committee for the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation

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③global warming potentialA numerical value obtained from calculating theinfluence of each gas on global warming for a certainperiod with 1 as the influence of CO2.GHG GWPCO2 1CH4 25N2O 298HFCs 1,430 etc.PFCs 7,390 etc.SF6 22,800NF3 17,200

(100-year time horizon from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)

CH4 =CO2

CO2CO2

CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

1kg 25kg

Methodologies to estimate GHG emissions

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Imports

Crude oil100

Oil refinery

Loss10

Crude oil100

Kerosene20

Fuel oil40

Gasoline30 Transport

Gasoline 30

ResidentialKerosene 20

IndustriesFuel oil 40

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

Example: Method of Energy-origin CO2 emissions

• Use General Energy Statistics (compiled by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy)

• General Energy Statistics show in which of the sectors (energy, industries, transport, residential, commercial and other sectors) fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) are consumed.

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Main change on inventories submitted in 2015

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<2008-2012 inventories (KP-CP1)>Revised 1996 IPCC GuidelinesGood Practice Guidance (2000)GPG-LULUCF (2003)

<2013 (2015 submission) inventories onward>2006 IPCC Guidelines2013 Wetlands Supplement2013 KP Supplement

• Estimation methodologies are revised annually in order to be more accurate.

• Major revisions are found in inventories submitted in 2015.

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Main change on inventories submitted in 2015

• Change of sectors/categories– “2. Industrial processes” and “3. Solvent and Other Product Use” were

merged to “2. Industrial processes and Other Product Use”• Example: N2O use for medical applications are currently reported under 2.G.3 (previously, under

3.D.1).

• Addition of gases– Addition of NF3; Addition of species of HFCs and PFCs

• Addition of sources/sinks– Example: Fugitive emissions from abandoned coal mines, harvested wood

products, etc.

• Change of GWP– Example: GWP for CH4 is 25 instead of 21.

• Change of methodologies– Example: Revision of General Energy Statistics, application of a model (rice

cultivation), etc.

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Summary

• Japan prepares national GHG inventories based on the IPCC Guidelines.

• GHG inventories are prepared by calculation from statistics, etc.

• Estimation methodologies are revised annually in order to be more accurate.

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Thank you for your attention.

GIO websitehttp://www-gio.nies.go.jp

SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 2006(Sheet 1 of 1) Submission 2008 v1.1

JAPAN

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs (2) PFCs (2) SF6

(2) Total SINK CATEGORIESTotal (Net Emissions) (1) 1,182,051 23,663 25,576 6,618 6,323 4,349 1,248,5801. Energy 1,185,910 1,268 7,525 1,194,702

A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1,185,874 841 7,525 1,194,2401. Energy Industries 387,049 34 1,427 388,5092. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 373,821 293 2,733 376,8483. Transport 246,802 234 3,003 250,0404. Other Sectors 177,235 280 343 177,8575. Other 966 1 19 986

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 36 426 0 4622. Industrial Processes 53,885 133 1,625 6,618 6,323 4,349 72,9323. Solvent and Other Product Use NA,NE 266 2664. Agriculture 15,352 12,017 27,368

A. Enteric Fermentation 7,035 7,035B. Manure Management 2,471 4,733 7,205C. Rice Cultivation 5,743 5,743D. Agricultural Soils(3) NA 7,210 7,210F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 102 74 176G. Other NO NO NO

5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -91,544 26 17 -91,501A. Forest Land -83,389 2 0 -83,386B. Cropland 307 2 15 324C. Grassland -1,139 0 0 -1,138D. Wetlands 181 1 0 183E. Settlements -7,809 13 1 -7,795F. Other Land 303 8 1 312

6. Waste 33,800 6,885 4,126 44,811A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NA,NE,NO 5,392 5,392B. Waste-water Handling 1,409 1,178 2,587C. Waste Incineration 33,279 83 2,925 36,287D. Other 521 IE,NO 24 545

(2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included.(3) Parties which previously reported CO2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR.(4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

(1) For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, thesigns for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

CRFNIR

Press release GHG data20