Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker's Competitiveness and … · 2015-01-22 · Japanese TFT-LCD Panel ......

Advanced Data Research All contents remain the property of Displaybank and the author

Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker’s Competitiveness

and Equipment Market


Content

1. History of TFT-LCD Panel Capacity by Region2. Survival Strategy of Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker

1. Large TFT-LCD Panel Strategy2. Small TFT-LCD Panel Strategy

3. TFT-LCD Panel Industry Long Term Trend 4. Equipment Market

1. History of TFT-LCD Array Investment2. History of Color Filter Investment3. Forecast of TFT-LCD Panel Investment4. Forecast of Color Filter Investment


10 Years History of TFT-LCD Panel Capacity by Regionby Mother Glass Sheet Area of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo)

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

China

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Km

2/M

o Worldwide CAGR=50%

CAGR:24%

CAGR:53%

CAGR:114%

CAGR:NA

CAGR=Compound Annual Growth Ratio


10 Years History of TFT-LCD Panel Capacity Share%by Mother Glass Sheet Area of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo)

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

12%

35%

49%

4%

72%

25%

3%


10 Years TFT-LCD Panel Capacity by Makerby Mother Glass Sheet Area of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo)

Sharp

SEC

LPL

AUO

CMO

CPT

Others

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

16%

6%

17%

15%

19%

7%21%

14%

6%

58%

1% 20%


Survival Strategy of Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker

1. Larger Size TFT-LCD Panel Strategy• Keep Larger Glass Investment by First Move Advantage.• Continuous Investments for Capacity Increasing.

Sharp, IPSα

2. Small Size TFT-LCD Panel Strategy• Polish the LTPS Technology.• Continuous Investments for Capacity Increasing.

TMD, Sharp, STLCD(SMTD), Hitachi


831889

1,111

1,404

1,558

1,851

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000M

$

FA-CIM 60 62 75 90 103 122

Facility 157 174 235 299 328 395

Build 103 114 161 209 222 269

Module 37 46 58 97 101 132

Cell 111 116 132 172 190 210

Array 363 376 449 536 614 723

Total 831 889 1,111 1,404 1,558 1,851

G5 G5.5 G6 G7 G7.5 G8

TFT-LCD Panel Fab Investment Amount by Generation @60KSheets/Mo

But, You cannot catch a tiger's cub unless you enter the den!!

High Risk


Larger Size TFT-LCD Panel StrategySharp will aim 52”wide and 65”wide

First Mover Advantage by Larger Glass Investment

= Higher Cost by Lower Productivity= Lower Cost & Higher Productivity

Gen.Major Panel

MakerGlass Size 32" 37" 40 42" 46" 52" 57" 65" 75" 85"

G5 SEC,AUO,CMO 1100x1300 3 2 2 2 2 1

G5.5 CMO 1300x1500 6 3 2 2 2 2 1 1

G6 LPL, AUO 1500x1850 8 6 3 3 3 2 2 2

G7 SEC 1870x2200 10 8 8 6 6 3 2 2 2 1

G7.5 LPL, AUO 1950x2250 12 8 8 8 6 3 3 2 2 2

G8 Sharp 2160x2460 15 10 8 8 8 6 3 2 2 2

G8.5 SEC 2200x2500 15 10 8 8 8 6 3 3 2 2

G9 SEC? 2400x2800 18 12 12 10 8 8 6 3 2 2

G10 Sharp? 2850x3050 24 18 15 15 10 8 8 6 3 2

G11 ? 3050x3450 32 24 18 18 15 10 8 8 6 3

Wide TV Panel Size (16:9)

Firs

t Mov

er A

dvan

tage

by

Lar

ger G

lass

Sharp Target Panel Size


Larger Size TFT-LCD Panel StrategyAssumption of Cost Analysis by Maker

for 52”Wide Full HD Panel

Country or Company Japan Korea TaiwanLocation Sharp SEC AUO

2160x2460 1870x2200 1950x2250Installation Year 2006 2004 2006

Inputs Glass sheets（Ksheets/Month）

Future Comp/Matls Cost Down % by Year Labor Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 60% 50%R&D Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 80% 50%

SG&A Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 80% 60%Building Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 70% 60%

Module Assembly Status （In-house=0%） 0% 0% 0%Utility Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 50% 60%Patent Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 120% 150%

Equipment Depreciation Year 5 5 6Building Depreciation Year 25 15 20Facility Depreciation Year 10 10 10

Maximum Depreciation ％ by Region 95% 100% 100%

11%

Glass Size (G3～G10)

Panel Size (1.5"-105")Resolution （QCIF～FullHD) FullHD

6052"

Regional Assumptions


Larger Size TFT-LCD Panel Strategy52”Wide Full HD TFT-LCD Panel

by First Mover Advantage

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

US $

Sharp 1,183 890 764 697

SEC 1,446 1,134 796 719

AUO 1,535 1,174 1,003 920

2007 2008 2009 2010600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

US $

Sharp 1,578 1,212 1,036 952

SEC 1,555 1,196 1,024 943

AUO 1,535 1,174 1,003 920

2007 2008 2009 2010

Same GenerationSame Invest. Year

Different GenerationDifferent Invest. Year

Small Cost Difference Big Cost Difference

Japan Korea TaiwanSharp SEC AUO

2160x2460 1870x2200 1950x22502006 2004 2006

Japan Korea TaiwanSharp SEC AUO

1950x2250 1950x2250 1950x22502006 2006 2006


Small Size TFT-LCD Panels StrategyAssumption of Cost Comparison

for Various LTPS and a-Si TFT-LCD Panel

Makeｒ A B C DLocat ion Japan Japan Japan Japan

Glass Size 600ｘ720 550x670 730ｘ920 370x470Capacity(Ksheets)/Mo 30 30 10 60

Built Year 1998 2000 2003 1995Transistor Technology LTPS CMOS LTPS CMOS LTPS CMOS a-Si

Minimum Design rule (um) 1.5 3.0 3.0 7.0Panel Size (inches) 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4

# of Panels / Mother Glass 144 120 224 56Resolut ion 240x320(QVGA) 240x320(QVGA) 960x240 (Delta) 240x320(QVGA)

Integrat ion Circuit level

Gate Driver,6bit DAC,

TCON,DC/DC,Power

Gate Dr iver,RGB Selector

Switch

Gate Driver,RGB Selector

SwitchNone

Not Integrat ion Level None6bit DAC,

TCON, DC/DC+Power

8bit DAC,TCON, DC/DC +

PowerAll Dr iver IC

Color filter Yes No Yes NoDriver IC Manufactur ing No No Yes No

TFT-LCD Panel Cost Comparison Table

BasicInformat ion

In-houseComponents

Good Fair Bad


Makeｒ A B C DLocat ion Japan Japan Japan Japan

Glass Size 600ｘ720 550x670 730ｘ920 370x470Capacity(Ksheets)/Mo 30 30 10 60

Built Year 1998 2000 2003 1995Transistor Technology LTPS CMOS LTPS CMOS LTPS CMOS a-Si

Depreciat ion 37 31 260 10Labors 280 283 329 351

Color Filter 20 139 20 220

Backlight 333 333 250 333Driver IC 0 326 251 407

Glass 23 20 23 25

Other Direct Mater ials 276 277 276 558

Indirect Mater ials 76 50 55 25Ut ilit y & others 23 19 24 11

R&D 500 250 250 125

S&GA 107 148 149 194Patent 21 30 30 39

Interests 0 0 0 0Panel Cost 1,696 1,907 1,914 2,298Sales Pr ice 2300 2300 2300 2300

Operat ing Profit 604 393 386 2

CostSt ructure

(Yen)

TFT-LCD Panel Cost Comparison Table

BasicInformat ion

Small Size TFT-LCD Panels Strategy Results of Cost Comparison

for Various LTPS and a-Si TFT-LCD Panel


Small Size TFT-LCD Panels StrategyToshiba LTPS Roadmap

In 2006, 1.5μｍ withGen.4 Line will Start-up

Added Function:Touch Panel, Finger Print, Color Scanner, DigitizerSource:IMID’06


1.E+05

1.E+06

1.E+07

1.E+08

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Moth

er

Gla

ss A

rea

(mm

xmm

)

Gen.1 (300x400)

Gen.2 (370x470)

Gen.3 (550x650)

Gen.3.8 (650x830)

Gen.6 (1500x1800-1500x1850)

Gen.5 (1000x1200-1200x1300)

Gen.7 (1870x2200-1950x2250)

Gen.10 (2850x3050)

Gen.4 (680x880-730x920)

Gen.3.5 (620x750)

Gen.9 (2400x2800)

Gen.11 (3050x3450)

Gen.?

Gen.8 (2160x2460-2200x2500)

TFT-LCD Panel Industry Long Term TrendMother Glass Size (Generation)


TFT-LCD Panel Industry Long Term Trend

The trend continues until at least 2010

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

Year

Gro

wth

Inde

x(1

995=1

00)

TFT-LCD Display Area

TFT-LCD Units

TFT-LCD Revenue ($)

TFT-LCD Investments ($)

Area/$

ForecastsHistory


Equipment Market Trend


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

CY

TFT-LC

D P

anel In

vestm

ent

by

Genera

tion（

Gla

ss

Ksh

eets

／M

o）

2160x2460-2200x2500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25

1870x2200-1950x2250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 98 256

1500x1800-1500x1850 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 230 300 102

1000x1200-1200x1300 0 0 0 0 30 198 354 350 115 303

650ｘ830-730ｘ920 14 7 8 311 99 118 108 83 90 49

550ｘ650-620ｘ750 139 52 208 182 117 78 6 24 6 0

410x520≦ 35 51 43 16 41 1 1 5 7 0

Total 188.0 110.0 259.0 509.0 287.0 395.0 505.0 752.0 616 735

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

10 Years History of TFT-LCD Array Investmentby Mother Glass Sheets of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo)

Grew but Unstable


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900C

apacity

Additio

n o

f TFT-LC

D C

olo

r Filt

ers

by

Year

by

Genera

tion（

Gla

ss

KSheets

／M

o）

>2100ｘ2400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40

1870ｘ2200/1950x2250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 180 240

1500x1800/1500x1850 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 250 150 180

1000x1200/1200x1300 0 0 0 0 0 250 360 285 150 190

650x8300/730x920 0 0 60 465 155 180 75 240 10 20

550x650/650x750 323 226 240 60 170 0 0 0 0 0

Total 428 254 300 525 325 430 465 835 510 670

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

10 Years History of TFT-LCD Color Filter Investmentby Mother Glass Sheets of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo)

Grew but Unstable


TFT FPD Array Equipment

605 729 681 1006 769 1041284 362 372

573444

64411691442 1516

2328

1818

2738

592

777 800

1252

967

1442

469

567 535

748

565

761

3,821

4,761 4,720

7,140

5,579

7,966

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CY (1-12)

TAM

(M

$)

Ar ray Repair

Array Test

AOI

Ion Dope

ELA

Anneal

Clean

Wet St r ip

Wet Etch

Dry Etch/Ash

C/D

Exposure

PVD

CVD

TFT-LCD Array Equipment Forecast (M$)


1,074

1,3961,339

1,985

1,400

1,979

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CY (1-12)

TAM

(M

$)

Repair

AOI

Wet Clean

Post Bake

Pre Bake

DeHyde Bake

PS&Rib-DeveloperRGB-Developer

BM-Developer

PS&Rib-Exposure

RGB-Exposure

BM-Exposure

Color Filter Equipment Forecast (M$)


Thank you very much!!

Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker's Competitiveness and … · 2015-01-22 · Japanese TFT-LCD Panel ......

Documents

Transcript of Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker's Competitiveness and … · 2015-01-22 · Japanese TFT-LCD Panel ......