Japanese Energy Crisis
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Transcript of Japanese Energy Crisis
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Japan’s Energy Crisis
Is a Green Future Possible?
Presentation by Guy Dauncey, Vancouver island University, August 2013
1
What is ourREALITY?
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実在
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We’ve come a long way from this….
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To this …
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but…
Everyone wants to go shopping…
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Smithore Dreamstime.com
We’ve also come to this…
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?……
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If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese,
we'd need two more Earths
to provide the resources.
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Live Rainforest
Dead Rainforest
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What went wrong?
How did this…
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Gross
Domestic
Product
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国内総生産
turn into this? …
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Gross
Depletionof the
Planet
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惑星のグロス枯渇
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2
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
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地球規模の気候変動
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Almost all our energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Almost all energy is Solar Energy
The Sun sends us solar energy
The trees capture the energy through photosynthesis
and convert it into CARBON
In
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Almost all energy is Solar Energy
When ancient forests died,
they stored the carbon
as
COAL
In
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Almost all energy is Solar Energy
When we burn the
COALit releases theancient carbon
and causes
GLOBAL WARMING
In
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Almost all energy is Solar Energy
The Sun also sends solar energyinto the ocean
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Almost all energy is Solar Energy
It is captured by ocean plankton,
who store it as CARBON
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Almost all energy is Solar Energy
When they die,the ancient carbon
becomes
OIL and GAS
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Most of our energy comes from:
COAL, OIL and GASAncient solar energy = ancient carbon
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Oil is also a cause of war and conflict
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They are all FOSSIL FUELSThey all cause Global Warming
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The cars we drive all cause global warming
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12.5 million tonnes of coal10 million tonnes of oil
7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas
Every day, we burnthis ancient carbon energy
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This gives us lots of ……
POWER!
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85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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Earth has a very thin atmosphere which traps and holds the sun’s heat,using CO2, methane, & water vapour.
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As we burn the fossil fuels…
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When we burn fossil fuels…
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As we burn the fossil fuels…
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CO2 CO2CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
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As we burn the fossil fuels…
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CO2 CO2CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
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As we burn the fossil fuels…
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The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising
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Carbon dioxide traps
Heat warms the air and the oceans
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The Arctic Ice is meltingGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Seoul, July 2011
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IPCC 2007
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www.globalwarmingart.com
+ 2˚C rise
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is the Age of Fossil Fuels
This
10,000 years past
10,000 years future
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The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.
Past Future Age ofFossil Fuels
We are HERE
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Glaciers are melting
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The Arctic sea ice is melting
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Greenland is melting
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Antarctica is melting
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The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher
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2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
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If all polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise
92 metres
70 metres
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Comparison of Vegetation Zones Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate
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Kyoto, December 23rd 2006
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Mount Fuji in Spring
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Mt. Fuji - no snow
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All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level
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Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise
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Hurricane Katrina, August 2005
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New Orleans, August 2005
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Torrential downpoursand floods
At the current predicted temperature rise,
33%of the Earth will be affected
by extreme drought by 2100
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), 2006
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Number of days over 100°F / 38°C
60 days a year
120+ days a year
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At the current predicted temperature rise,
Up to 20%of the world’s economy could be lost
That’s like the Great Depression
and both World Wars combined
+
Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV!
Climate change is destroying our world!
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There’s also a second problem Peak OilGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
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is the Age of Fossil Fuels
This10,000 years past
10,000 years future
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The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.
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Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
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CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)
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Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming
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Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves
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All of this must remain in the ground
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Do you sometimes feel that it’s all getting
out of control?
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So what shall we do?
3
JAPAN’SENERGY PROBLEM
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エネルギー問題
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Coal 21%
Oil 46%
Gas 15%
Nuclear 15%
= 1,000 Terawatt hours
a year
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Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
97% of all Japan’senergy
is imported
$$
$$
$$$$
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Uranium 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
USA 75%France 11%Britain 10%
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Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
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Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
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Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
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Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
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Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%
?
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www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf
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How serious 切実
is Japan’s Energy Problem?
1. Very serious2. I don’t know3. Not serious
4
JAPAN’S ENERGY
SOLUTIONS解答
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We need…
A 100% Shift to Renewable
Energy
Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com
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We need…
A Green Economy
Harmony with Nature
True Sustainability
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How much energy does Japan need?
1,000 terawatt hours a year
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1,000 terawatt hours a year
千テラワット時間今年
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Where will the green electricity come from?
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Efficient Appliances
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LED lights only use
1 to 5 watts
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How much energy can Japan SAVE?
200 to 500 terawatt hours a year
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Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
Solar Power
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Ota Solar City, Japan
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Solar-powered homesYoshikawa, near Tokyo
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Les-Mees, France
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Solar Stadium, Taiwan
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Dow’s Solar Shingles
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Thin film solar
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Thin film solar production
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The Falling Price of Solar PV
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Price of Solar Cells1977: $761981: $241991: $92001: $62011: $1.252013: $0.74
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Price of Installed Solar Power
Germany: $2.50 a wattUS & Canada: $5 a wattJapan: $6.50 a watt
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How much SOLAR energy could Japan produce?
72 to 300 terawatt hours a year
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Solar Millennium AG
Solar thermal energy
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Solar One, Nevada, 64 MW
Earth’s total known fossil energy reservesare equivalent to 47 days of solar energy
reaching the Earth’s deserts
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How much SOLAR THERMAL energy could Japan produce?
Unknown
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Geothermal Energy
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Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa2-12 cents kWh39 countries could get 100% power = 17% of the world’s people
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Geothermal powerNesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland
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How much GEOTHERMAL energy could Japan produce?
98 to 500 terawatt hours a year
Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita
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Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark
Wind Energy
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Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan
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Siemens AG
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Wind Power in Japan
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How much WIND energy could Japan produce?
570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year
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How much HYDRO energy could Japan produce?
79 - 140 terawatt hours a year
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How much TIDAL energy could Japan produce?
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20-70 terawatt hours a year
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South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok tidal power plant
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The Cost is Falling
1990 2013 2020Wind 30 8-10 8 cents kWh
Solar 200 30 15 cents kWh
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THE RESULT
Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year
Low HighEfficiency 200 500Solar 72 300Geothermal 30 500
Wind 570 5000Hydro 79 140Tidal 20 70
TOTAL 971 6510
5
TRANSPORTATION輸送
SOLUTIONS解答Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013
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As we burn the fossil fuels…
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CO2 CO2CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
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Copenhagen36% of all work trips by bike.
Vancouver, Howe Street
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Electric Bicycle
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Moto Electra World Record Across US in 3 Days
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Electric Motorbike
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Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo
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Electric train, running on green electricity
= no climate impact
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Public Transit
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net
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Electric bus, running on green electricity = no climate impact
OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
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Japan’s Future Electric Bus
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Chevy Volt1,400 km on one tank of gas
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Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
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Smart Electric – 135 km range
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Mitsubishi MiEV160 km range
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Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range
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Tesla Roadster 393 km range
Top
The KIA Pop: yet to be released
STELLA
Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven UniversityFamily size, 4-seater
Roadworthy, legal in HollandWeight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)
Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshineSolar PV cost $4,000
10 months a year it produces more energy than it usesExcess power back into the grid
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Electric cars, running on green electricity
= no climate impact
1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
PV for EV
1.5 kW solar PV $7,500
3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand
www.solarroadways.com
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Honda solar electric car charging
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Electric car fast charging
Mercedes Biome – made from bioplasticGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com
9 MW of solar panelsRetractable sails between each cargo bay
Self-unloading cargo baysSuperconducting power link
Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cellsSleek, low wind resistance design
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Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Telemeetings = no climate impact
6
BUILDINGSOLUTIONS
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We can live and work in green buildings
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Or this?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
This…
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Or this?
This …
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Or this?
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Heating 加熱 without Fossil Fuels
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Solar Heat + StorageAustria
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Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
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Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
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Solar Heating from the Air
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Ground Source Heat2 million installations in 30 countries
$20,000 to $30,000
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Water Source Heat
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Ice-Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval
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Solar Heat
Solar hot wateron a restaurant in
Sweden
Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
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www.solarbc.caA project of the BCSEA
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Lindau Hospital, Germany
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Rizhao, China
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99% of city centre households use solar hot water.60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.
Whole city plans to become carbon neutral.
Rizhao, ChinaPopulation 3 million
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CSIRO
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Solar Wall Heating
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Welsh Development Agency Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales
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Pearl River Tower
Guangzhou, China
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Bahrain World Trade Centre
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Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San FranciscoRobert Nebolon architect
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Toyko, Japan
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8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville
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ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan. 35,000 plants, 76 species
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Osaka
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Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village
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Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village
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Madrid, Spain
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Gangnam district, Seoul
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ACROS Fukuoka buildingFukuoka, Japan
7
OUR PAST AND
OUR FUTUREGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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We have been developing intelligencefor millions of years
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Our technology is the expression of our
cumulative 累積のshared シェアードintelligence 知性
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Where are we going?
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We have made our full evolutionary
journeyover 13.8 billion years
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We have made our recent
evolutionary journey over ten million years
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There will be
a billion years
before the Sun runs out of fueland begins to die
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A billion years10億年
We are here
Past
過去Future
将来
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Firewood1.5 million years
CumulativeIntelligence
The Carbon Years…
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The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp…
Firewood1.5 million years
CumulativeIntelligence
Fossil Fuels200 years
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The Carbon Years could bethe launch-ramp for the solar years
Firewood Solar1.5 million years
CumulativeIntelligence
Fossil Solar200 years
True Solar1 billion years
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THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making faster progress?
1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知 4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導
8
FINALTHOUGHTS
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A Thousand PossibilitiesGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
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By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand
We need to roll up the past.
Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria
We need to sail away from our old, polluting waysand build a green, sustainable world.
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This is about you, your children,and your future.
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決意
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You have free will We can make a difference
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This is about us, our planet,and our future.
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Our Home
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Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com