Japanese Conceptions of Security in the 21st

Century

Tom LeAssociate Professor of PoliticsPomona College

October 23, 2021

Roadmap

• Useful Concepts and Definitions• History and Context• Research Question

The Basics

• Demographics• Technology

Hardware

• Politics• Rules and Rule

Software

Useful Concepts and Definitions

Analyzes with these Concepts + Theories

Alliances; IGOs; Multinational Corporations; Regimes

International System

State

Individual

Anarchy; Power Balancing;Interdependence;Norms and Rules

Regime-type;Democratic Peace Theory;Kantian Triangle

Personality;Perceptions;Human Nature

Leaders

Government;Economy;National Interest;Interest Groups

Kenneth Waltz, 1959. Man, the State, and War

THREE IMAGES OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

“the authoritative allocation of values for a society”- David Easton

“who gets what, when, and how”- Harold Lasswell

WHAT IS POLITICS?

“[rules] tell us how to play the game”- Nicolos Onuf

• History matters

• Commitment to a path due to structural properties or beliefs and values

• Early decisions have a larger impact than later decisions

• The cost of change increases over time

Key Components

PATH DEPENDENCE

Some History and Context

• Economic development• Low military footprint

Yoshida Doctrine

• ODA• Promotion of institutions

Fukuda Doctrine

• Proactive contribution to peace• Strengthening US-Japan alliance

Abe Doctrine

Three Non-Nuclear Principles

• Will not sell arms to any country that can engage in conflict

Non-Exports Principles

• Renounces the right to war for settling international disputes

Article 9

• Blames military for hijacking the nation in WWII

• Guilt stemming from war conduct• Significant presence of pacifist left in

education, political, and general society

"Peace Culture"

JAPAN: PACIFISM OR PASSING THE BUCK?

Occupied by U.S.S.R.

Occupied by U.S.A

1945

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Civil War

Civil War

North Korea• Historical security issues• Rapid development of nuclear program• Increased regularity of missile tests• Missiles have shown increased range,

lethality, and dependability

Dozens of Japanese nationals have been abducted by North Korea

China• Power transition: China has overtaken

Japan economically and militarily• Presence: China has increased its footprint

regionally and internationally• Confidence: China has become more

willing to press its territorial claims• Uncertainty: The U.S. has shown signs of

isolationism0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

China Japan Russia South Korea Taiwan

Share of Defense Spending in East Asia

July 27, 2012March 5, 2015September 3, 2015July 24, 2016

EAST ASIA REGIONAL POLITICS

US-Japan Alliance

• Abandonment vs. Entrapment?• How to be a better ally?• How to be an equal ally?• Is the US a dependable ally?

Diverse Security Threats

• Terrorism• Cyber security• Environmental insecurity• Human security• Rocky relations with ROK

“As far as Japan and other countries, we are being ripped off by everybody in the ̶ we're defending other countries. We are spending a fortune doing it. They have the bargain of the century. All I said is, we have to renegotiate these agreements, because our country cannot afford to defend Saudi Arabia, Japan, Germany, South Korea and many other places.”

“Now, wouldn't you rather in a certain sense have Japan have nuclear weapons when North Korea has nuclear weapons? And they do have them. They absolutely have them. They can't ̶ they have no carrier system yet but they will very soon.Wouldn't you rather have Japan, perhaps, they're over there, they're very close, they're very fearful of North Korea, and we're supposed to protect.”

GLOBAL POLITICS

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

“Japanʼs path to militarization” ‒ The Atlantic, July 11, 2016

“Why the US is no threat to China, but a remilitarized Japan, led by Shinzo Abe, may well be” ‒ South China Morning Post, November 5, 2017

“To deter North Korea, Japan and South Korea should go nuclear” ‒ The Washington Post, October 10, 2017

“A pacifist Japan starts to embrace the military” ‒ The New York Times, August 29, 2017

”Japanese politicians want the ability to bomb North Korea first before being ʻdestroyedʼ” ‒ Newsweek, March 27, 2017

“Japan mulls over more aggressive military stance as North Korean threat looms” - CNN, March 30, 2017

“Is Japanʼs militarization normal?” - The Diplomat, March 18, 2015

• Aging/declining population

• Marriage

• Work-life balance

State

• Rising China

• Nuclear North Korea

• Terrorism

• Piracy

• Natural disasters

• Climate change

• Natural resources

EnvironmentalSocial

• Anemic Growth

• Global competition

• Supply chains and resource dependence

• BRI

Economic

JAPANESE SECURITY CONCERNS

Argument• Interaction of material and ideational forces create constraints and

restraints on the JSDF

• Antimilitarism is reified through time, experiences, and practices. We can call this an antimilitarism ecosystem

Premises• Security policy is what a state can do, as much as it is what it should

do • Politics is a normative exercise• Antimilitarism is a type of militarism

What determines the content and direction of Japanese security policy?

• How is the use of force legitimized in domestic politics and international relations?

• How do Japanʼs anti-militarism culture and institutions evolve in response to changes to the domestic, regional, and international environments?

QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER

Role of the Military

• Security

• Policing

• State building

• Diplomacy

Port visits and exchanges Antipiracy and patrolsEngineering and construction Defense of Japan

Pacifism (ßantimilitarism) (remilitarizationà) Militarism

Conventional Militarism Concept - Militarizing - Militaristic- Anti-militarism - Pacifism- Defensive - Offensive- Normalizing - Normal- Abnormal- The concept of “militarism” has been oversimplified- Normative language shades analysis of security policy, especially of non-U.S. states- Analysis mixes intentions, projections, and capabilities- Material and ideational forces interact and produce unique militarisms

MULTIPLE MILITARISMS

• Aging/declining population

• Article 18 (no conscription)

• Weak recruitment

Technical-Infrastructural

• Underdeveloped military-industrial complex

• Lack of combat experience

• Outdated infrastructure

• Defense-oriented technologies

• US-Japan alliance

• Japanese “neutrality” outside of East Asia

• Reassurance policy

• International stigma

PoliticalSocial-Structural

• “Peace Constitution”

• Non-nuclear principles

• Peace activism

• 1% of GDP defense spending limit

• Arms exports ban

Normative

ANTIMILITARISM ECOSYSTEM

Demographics

DEMOGRAPHIC CRISES

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

JAPAN ANNUAL GDP GROWTH

Source: Figure created with data from World Values Survey (1981, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2005, 2010, and 2017)

93%89% 90%

80%74%

89%

21%

10%

17% 16% 15% 15% 13%

74%

85%82%

74% 72%

63%67%

73%

86%81%

77%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1981-1984 1990-1994 1995-1998 1999-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2017-2020

China Japan South Korea Taiwan

WORLD VALUES SURVEY: WILLINGNESS TO FIGHT FOR YOUR COUNTRY

Source: Ministry of Defense, Bōei Hakusho (“defense white paper”), 1970-2018.

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

30000019

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

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9819

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0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

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1520

1620

1720

1820

19

PER

CEN

T O

F A

UTH

OR

IZED

PER

SON

NEL

REC

RU

ITED

UN

IT: T

RO

OPS

Authorized Actual Percent

JSDF FORCE SIZE (AUTHORIZED AND ACTUAL) (1976-2019)

China Japan North Korea Russia South Korea TaiwanParamilitary 660,000 12,650 189,000 659,000 4,500 17,000Reserve 510,000 56,000 6,300,000 2,000,000 7,500,000 1,657,000Active 2,183,000 247,150 1,190,000 831,000 630,000 215,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000Pe

rson

nel

Source: IISS 2017

MILITARY FORCE SIZE IN EAST ASIA

Aging and Declining Population

Decreased savings and productivity

Decreased investment and less effective/flexible

fiscal policies

Decreased consumerspending; weakened

economy

Delayed marriage; later births; fewer births

Fewer recruits

Less selective recruiting

Early retirements

Limited defense budget

IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHICS ON FORCE STRENGTH

Peace Culture: Rule and Rules

PreambleWe desire to occupy an honored place in an international society striving for the preservation of peace, and the banishment of tyranny and slavery, oppression and intolerance for all time from the earth. We recognize that all peoples of the world have the right to live in peace, free from fear and want.

Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.

In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea,and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

Article 9

• Comprehensive view of security • Desire to contribute to the

international community

• Limited use of the Japan Self-Defense Forces

• Significant legal roadblocks to expansion of responsibilities

Implications

• Multi-pronged approach to security (ODA, HA/DR, diplomacy)

• Non-military Preemptive security

Article 25All people shall have the right to maintain the minimum standards of wholesome and cultured living.

In all spheres of life, the State shall use its endeavors for the promotion and extension of social welfare and security, and of public health.

CONSTITUTION OF JAPAN

Nuclear Weapons

• Hiroshima and Nagasaki (200k+ deaths)

• Bikini Atoll and Lucky Dragon no. 5

• Cold War

• Non-nuclear principles

• Nuclear “allergy”

• Militarism is blamed for Japanʼs suffering

• Black rain

• Sadako and the paper cranes

• Environmental catastrophe

Antimilitarism Humanitarian Consequences of Nuclear Weapons

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster

ANTIMILITARISM AND THE ENVIRONMENT

• Civilian control of the military• Justifications for the use of force• Role of the Japan Self-Defense Forces• Is an amendment of the “Peace Constitution”

needed in todayʼs world?

“Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.”

ARTICLE 9 AND MILITARISM

Source: City of Hiroshima 2020

0

200000

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600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

1955

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UN

IT: V

ISIT

OR

S

Total (no breakdown) Japanese Adults + Students Japanese Adults Students Foreigners

HIROSHIMA PEACE MEMORIAL MUSEUM ANNUAL VISITORS (1955-2019)

Source: City of Hiroshima 2020

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1983

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UN

IT: V

ISIT

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Elementary School Middle School High School Percentage of Total Visitors

ANNUAL HIROSHIMA PEACE MUSEUM STUDENT VISITORS (1983-2019)

Source: City of Hiroshima 2020

0

500

1000

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1983

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UN

IT: S

CH

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L TR

IPS

Elementary School Middle School High School

ANNUAL SCHOOL TRIPS (1983-2019)

Thank you.Questions?

New Actors

Old Habits

global; tech savvy; new skillsets; independent

hierarchical; underpaid; small and specialized

New Motivations

Established Methods

environmental; economic

cross-networked; cultural roadblocks

New Context

Embedded Power

interdependent; climate change

Lack of government dynamism; history “settled”; peace discourse

UPDATING PEACE CULTURE

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Uni

t: m

illio

ns (c

onst

ant [

2016

] USD

)

China Japan Russia South Korea Taiwan

Source: SIPRI

DEFENSE EXPENDITURES IN EAST ASIA (1989-2017)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Shar

e of

Gov

ernm

ent S

pend

ing

China Japan Russia South Korea Taiwan

DEFENSE EXPENDITURES AS SHARE OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING (1989-2017)

Source: SIPRI

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Perc

enta

ge o

f GDP

China Japan Russian South Korea Taiwan

EAST ASIA DEFENSE EXPENDITURES BY SHARE OF GDP (1989-2017)

Source: SIPRI

-4 5%

-3 5%

-2 5%

-1 5%

-5 %

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

1992

-199

3

1993

-199

4

1994

-199

5

1995

-199

6

1996

-199

7

1997

-199

8

1998

-199

9

1999

-200

0

2000

-200

1

2001

-200

2

2002

-200

3

2003

-200

4

2004

-200

5

2005

-200

6

2006

-200

7

2007

-200

8

2008

-200

9

2009

-201

0

2010

-201

1

2011

-201

2

2012

-201

3

2013

-201

4

2014

-201

5

2015

-201

6

2016

-201

7

China

Japan

Russia

South Korea

Taiwan

Source: SIPRI

YEAR-TO-YEAR DEFENSE EXPENDITURES GROWTH/DECLINE (1992-2017)

Source: United Nations Troop and Police Contributors Archive (1990-2014). http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/resources/statistics/contributors_archive.shtml

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sep-92

Sep-93

Sep-94

Sep-95

Sep-96

Sep-97

Sep-98

Sep-99

Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Uni

t: m

issio

ns

Total Missions Missions (Japan Involvment)

UN AND JAPAN PKO MISSIONS (SEPTEMBER 1992 ‒ JANUARY 2019)

Source: United Nations Troop and Police Contributors Archive (1990-2014). http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/resources/statistics/contributors_archive.shtml

May 1993: 729

Jan. 1995 - Jan. 1996: 0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Sep-92

Sep-93

Sep-94

Sep-95

Sep-96

Sep-97

Sep-98

Sep-99

Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Uni

t: tr

oops

UN AND JAPAN PKO MISSIONS (SEPTEMBER 1992 ‒ JANUARY 2019)

Dec. 2002 - Feb. 2003 [Rank 16]

Dec. 2017 [Rank 119]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19

Uni

t: co

untr

ies

Japan Rank Total Countries that Countributed

Source: United Nations Troop and Police Contributors Archive (1990-2014). http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/resources/statistics/contributors_archive.shtml

JSDF PERSONNEL CONTRIBUTIONS TO UN MISSIONS (09/92 -01/19)

Prime Minister Whatʼs the deal? Status1) Tomiichi Murayama (JSP) 1994-1996. Upended decades of LDP rule. Socialist PM. 50th Anniversary

Apology StatementRetired. Traveled to DPRK to improve relations. Led AWF.

2) Ryutara Hashimoto (LDP) 1996-1998. Came up with the Futenma base agreement (STILL ONGOING).

Scandal forced him to resign. Dead.

3) Keizo Obuchi (LDP) 1998-2000. High point in Japan-ROK relations due to Obuchi-Kim statement and lack of spoilers. “Future-oriented relationship based on reconciliation.”

Suffered stroke and died while in office.

4) Yoshiro Mori (LDP) 2000-2001. “Heart of a flea, brain of a shark.” Either racist, or dumb. Resigned. Now head of 2020 Olympics.5) Junichiro Koizumi (LDP) 2001-2006. A “maverick” who was very popular. Kingmaker who remade

LDP. Empowered PMship significantly. Known for Yasukuni Shine visits, assertive foreign policy, economic reform (privatization of economy) and support for GWB.

Retired. Weak kingmaker. Anti-nuclear.

6) Shinzo Abe (LDP) 2006-2007. Came into power due to North Korea negotiations. Resigned. Comes back in 2012.7) Yasuo Fukuda (LDP) 2007-2008. Son of former PM. Got nothing done. Resigned. Some diplomacy work.8) Taro Aso (LDP) 2008-2009. Only PM to start term with below 50% approval rating. Gaff

prone. Lost LDP power.Resigned. Current Minister of Finance. Deputy Prime Minister.

9) Yukio Hatoyama (DPJ) 2009-2010. Political blue blood. 4th gen. politician. Great grandfather founded LDP. Asia-focused foreign policy. Disliked by US and Japanese bureaucracy.

Resigned due to scandal. Visits Asia often to given apologies. Stage actor.

10) Naoto Kan (DPJ) 2010-2011. Non-elite. Worked his way up government ranks. Increased sales tax; couldnʼt jumpstart economy. PM during 3/11. All downhill. From there.

Resigned. Sitting Diet member. Member of CDP.

11) Yoshihiko Noda (LDP) 2011-2012. Focused on US-Japan alliance (Obamaʼs Pivot to Asia). Pushed for TPP. Nationalized Senkaku Islands. Party lost election to LDP.

Lost. Sitting Diet member. DP.

12) Shinzo Abe (LDP) 2012-2020. Indo-Pacific Strategy. Abenomics. Wants to revise constitution. Very pro-US. Friends with Trump. Improved relations with China. Poor relations with ROK, despite 2015 deal. Numerous scandals. Got the Olympics. Strong legacy with the “west;” unpopular in Asia.

Longest-serving PM. Just resigned

13) Yoshihide Suga (LDP) 2020-present. Abeʼs Cabinet Secretary. Non-elite. Wants to continue Abe policies. Will have to deal with COVID, gender equality, the Olympics, East Asia issues, US presidency, demographics, immigration

Current PM.