Japan’s Energy Transition at the crossroad 4 years after 3.11 … · 2018-07-20 · Japan’s...
Transcript of Japan’s Energy Transition at the crossroad 4 years after 3.11 … · 2018-07-20 · Japan’s...
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Japan’s Energy Transition at the crossroad
4 years after 3.11 Fukushima Nuclear Disaster
Lunch Debate: Fukushima four years laterMarch 4th-5th 2015, in the European Parliaments
March 4th – 5th, 2015Tetsunari IIDA
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
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4 yeas after
3.11 Fukushima3.11 Fukushima
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Over 120,000 refugees left behind
3Aircraft Monitoring by MEXT(Deposition amount of Cesium134 and 137) 3
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“Under control”“Completely blocked”by Shinzo ABE
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by Shinzo ABE
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The reality
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Reactor Bldg.
Turbine Bldg.
Contaminatedwater tank
Leakage
Sampling well
Cooling w
ater
Sampling well
Sea level
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Contamination plume
Impermeable layer ?
level
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The reality
Ice wall
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The reality
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15 – 30 million m3
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The reality
• Small improvements
• Big mess
9(画像) WSJ
• Big mess
• Spreading chaos
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Spreading chaos
1. “ABE backlash” and “Shock doctrine”
2. All nuclear policy under METI’s governance
3. Corrupted policy design under METI
4. “40 years TEPCO’s roadmap” w/o any proof4. “40 years TEPCO’s roadmap” w/o any proof
5. Complicating “waste issue”
6. “Odd situation” over radiation
7. Difficulty in refugees’ future
8. Media control10
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300 32 11512192005
….but, Abe Administration has come,
119 21 30814182009
294 31 5712182012 54
11291 35 7325102014 41
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“ABE-backlash” as “Shock doctrine”
• 2012.12 Strong will to resume nuclear
• 2013.1 ~ Top sales for nuclear export
• 2014.4 New Energy Policy with Nuclear
• 2014.6 Replace NRA committee member
• 2014.7 The first nuke (Sendai) passed NRA
• 2014.12 Local governments’ agreement
• 2015 summer The first nuke restart after 3.11 ?12
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“ABE’s jigsaw puzzle”, trick for nuclear revival
1. Cleverly devised effort for nuclear restart
2. Changing public perception
3.Manipulating electricity tariff
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4. Nuclear FIT (CfD)
5. Relaxing nuclear liability
6. Positive attitude for HLW issue
7. Still stick to “nuclear fuel cycle” myth
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Public opinion for nuclear
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2006More nuclear
1414
2011
2013
Just keep
Phase-out
June
March(Source)2006;Japanese Gov., 2011&2013: NHK
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Cost of nuclearYen/kWhNuclear cost revised
at compensation of
50 billion USD
1515Nuke Coal GasWindon off Geo Hydro
Now 110 B$(9.5 yen/kWh)
must be more
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Paradigm change about nuclear
Before 3.11 After 3.11
Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply security
Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply security
More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply risk
More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply risk
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Supply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly
Supply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly
Supply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market
Supply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market
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New trend in Justice : the case of Fukui
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New trend in Justice : the case against TEPCO
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All the nuclear has shut dow
n
20 25 30
Nuclear Power (TWh/month)
3.115.5
9.15
on Sept.15
0 5 10 15
1004
1006
1008
1010
1012
1102
1104
1106
1108
1110
1112
1202
1204
1206
1208
1210
1212
1302
1304
1306
1308
1310
Nuclear Power (TWh/month)
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Energy saving – the largest alternative to nuclear
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・Endurance・Efficiency
Some “evolution” in energy policy
・Endurance
・Commanding
・Lack of supply
・More power
・Bad for economy
・Efficiency
・Nega-watt
・Peak management
・DSM
・Good for business2121
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25
35
45
(G
W)
Rinsing renewables power - the 4th revolution
-5
5
15
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Data from: GWEA, IAEA, Photon, Platts, 22
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Sun rising again, and where
8
10
12
GW
/Ann
ual
JPGECH
230
2
4
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GW
/Ann
ual
FIT (house)
FIT (all)
FIT (2005~)
FIT (2000~)
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Increasing EL tariff, decreasing PV cost in Japan
(source)Japan Renewable Foundation24
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Sun rising again1st Oct. 2014
FIT Suspended
25th Jan. 2015
Regional CAP25
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Rising community power in Japan
Niceko
Yamagata
Toyama
Bizen
Takarazuka
Kyotango
Takayama
Obihiro
Akita
Shiragami
IwateNiigata
Aizu Soma
Setagaya
Chofu
SaitamaIIDA city
Odawara
Bizen
Shizuoka NaganoObama
Yamaguchi
Kumamoto
Minami-SomaHiroshima
IwateNiigata
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Rising community power : Fukushima
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Old regime New paradigm
Centralized Small distributed
Monopoly Community ownership
At the crossroad
Monopoly Community ownership
Hierarchy Network
Fossil & nuclearRenewable &
Energy efficiency
(Numerical) Economic growth
Sufficiency, justice, welfare
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