January 2017

107
JANUARY 2017

Transcript of January 2017

Page 1: January 2017

JANUARY 2017

Page 2: January 2017
Page 3: January 2017
Page 4: January 2017

Patricia LayaBloomberg News

“Consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since 2004, extending a surge in Americans’ optimism for their finances and the U.S. economy following Donald Trump’s election victory.The University of Michigan said that its final index of sentiment rose to 98.2 from 93.8.”

Page 5: January 2017

“The National Federation of Independent Businesses' Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 98.4 from 94.9 - its sharpest surge since 2009 - with all of the increase in sentiment coming after the U.S. elections.‘The November index was basically unchanged from October's reading up to the point of the election and then rose dramatically after the results of the election were known,’ explained Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.”

Luke KawaBloomberg News

Page 6: January 2017

“The CNBC All-America Economic Survey for the fourth quarter found that the percentage of Americans who believe the economy will get better in the next year jumped an unprecedented 17 points to 42%, compared with before the election.

‘We're looking at America moving into a more positive era with regard to economic expectations,’ said Micah Roberts, vice president at Public Opinion Strategies.”

Steve LiesmanCNBC

Page 7: January 2017

“Consumer confidence climbed in December to the highest level since August 2001 as Americans were more upbeat about the outlook than at any time in the last 13 years, according to the New York-based Conference Board.American households are expecting a Donald Trump administration to deliver. They are more upbeat about the prospects for the economy, labor market and their incomes.”

Michelle JamriskoBloomberg News

Page 8: January 2017

TheConsumerConfidenceIndex

TheConferenceBoardConsumerConfidence

2001 2009 2017

BUSHelected

OBAMAelected

TRUMPelected

Page 9: January 2017

-0.4%

-2.4%

-1.0% -1.3%

5.7%PENDINGHome SalesYear-Over-Year By Region

U.S. Midwest West South Northeast

NAR 1/2017

Page 10: January 2017

HOUSING SUPPLYYear-Over-Year

-3.8%

-2.2%

-1.1%-1.5%

-3.6%

-9.6%

-5.8% -5.8%

-10.1%

-6.8%

-4.3%

-9.3%

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Last 12 MonthsNAR 1/2017

Page 11: January 2017

333K 325K

630K

293K 283K

594K

Starter Homes Trade-Up Homes Premium Homes

2015 4Q 2016 4Q

Housing Inventory by Category

Trulia

Page 12: January 2017

% Change in Inventory by Category

Trulia

-9.1%

-12.1% -12.9%

-5.6%

Total Homes Starter Homes Trade-Up Homes Premium Homes

2016 4th Quarter compared to 2015 4th Quarter

Page 13: January 2017

3.974.20

3.39

3.49

3.59

3.69

3.79

3.89

3.99

4.09

4.19

4.29 30 Year FixedRate Mortgages

from Freddie Mac

Freddie Mac 1/2016

Page 14: January 2017

Quarter Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average

of All Four

2017 2Q 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.25

2017 3Q 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.33

2017 4Q 4.2 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.43

2018 1Q 4.2 ? 4.7 ? ?

Mortgage Rate Projections

1/2017

Page 15: January 2017

“We think that conforming 30-year fixed rates probably make it into the 4.625 percent to 4.75 percent range at some point during 2017 as a peak” - HSH

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hits 4.75 percent.” - Svenja Gudell, Zillow’s Chief Economist

“[I see] mortgage rates getting much closer to 5 percent at the end of next year.” - Mark Fleming, the Chief Economist at First American

“Our forecast is saying we expect mortgage rates to hit 4.5 percent.” - Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at realtor.com

“By this time next year, expect the 30-year fixed rate to likely be in the4.5 percent to 5 percent range.” - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

Page 16: January 2017

“Despite the recent jump in mortgage rates since the election, the annual average for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.65 percent in 2016, the lowest annual average ever recorded by Freddie Mac going back to 1971.”

Freddie Mac

Page 17: January 2017

“Mortgage rates would have to be a lot higher before they really crimp a buyers’ ability to afford a home -Trulia chief economist Ralph McLaughlin estimates between 7% and 10% for many metros.”

MarketWatch.com

Page 18: January 2017

“Though mortgage rates moved higher again this week, borrowers should still appreciate how low they are - because they're likely to increase further.”

Realtor Magazine

Page 19: January 2017

300

350

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450

500

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600

650

700

750

800

850

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Median Asking

RENTsince 1988

Census

Page 20: January 2017

“Renters paid a cumulative $478.5 billion in 2016, a 3.8 percent increase from 2015.”

Zillow

Page 21: January 2017

“Somewould-besellersmaybereluctanttomoveuportradedown- especiallyifthey'verefinancedinrecentyears.”

- LawrenceYun

Page 22: January 2017

MarketWatch.com

“But higher mortgage rates have secondary effects, as well. Consider homeowners who bought their homes in the past few years, or who’ve enjoyed a refinance as rates hovered closer to 3%.Unless a move is absolutely necessary, those owners are likely to balk at having to sell their home and then borrow at higher rates for a new one. ‘Interest rate lock matters,’ says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.”

Page 23: January 2017

MarketWatch.com

“Zandi cautioned that he doesn’t think ‘rate lock’ kicks in until rates are well over 5%, however. He calculates that a one percentage point increase in rates will increase the tenure of a typical American homeowners by just over six months - also not helpful in a market starved for activity.”

Page 24: January 2017

Bob WaltersQuicken Loans Chief Economist

“Home values pushedhigher throughout 2016,largely driven by lack ofsupply in the hottest markets. It’s yet to be seen if these increases will continue or wane as homebuilding grows, boosting inventory.”

Page 25: January 2017

Actual Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State

CoreLogic

Page 26: January 2017

Month-Over-Month % Change in Price by State

CoreLogic

Page 27: January 2017

“For most adults near traditional retirement age, a home is their most valuable asset — dwarfing retirement accounts, other financial assets, and other nonfinancial assets. Although relatively few retirees tap into their home equity, having it provides financial security.In fact, many retirement security experts argue that the conventional three-legged stool of retirement resources - Social Security, pensions, and savings - is incomplete because it ignores the home.”

Fannie Maereporting on recent Urban Institute study

Page 28: January 2017

Anand NallathambiPresident and CEO of CoreLogic

“Price appreciation is the main Ingredient for home equity wealth creation, and home prices rose 5.8% according to the CoreLogic Price Index.Pay down of principal is the second key component of equity building. Many homeowners have refinanced into shorter-term loans and by doing so, they have significantly fewer mortgage payments and are able to build equity wealth faster.”

Page 29: January 2017

CoreLogic

By State

% of Homes with Positive Equity

Page 30: January 2017

% of Homes with Significant Equity (> 20%)By State

CoreLogic

Page 31: January 2017

FannieMae&CoreLogic

37%

79.1%

% who believe they have > than 20% equity % who actually have > 20% equity

SignificantEquity (>20%)

Perceived/Actual

Page 32: January 2017

“The HPPI compares the perceivedgap between the homeowner and theappraiser’s opinion of a home’s valueAnd has provided an intriguing look intothe psychographics of our housing market.The most recent HPPI indicates homeownersand appraisers are closer to agreeing at the endof 2016 than they were at the start of the new year. It’s our hope that with this information the only surprises this holiday season are the ones wrapped under the tree.”

Bob WaltersQuicken Loans Chief Economist

Page 33: January 2017

Quicken Loans

-1.8 -1.75

-1.99-2.17

-1.95 -1.89 -1.93

-1.69-1.56

-1.26-1.15

-1.00

Jan-16 Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec% -1.8 -1.75 -1.99 -2.17 -1.95 -1.89 -1.93 -1.69 -1.56 -1.26 -1.15 -1.00

Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates

Last 12 Months

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Average Days on the MarketBy State

NAR

Page 37: January 2017

4000000

4500000

5000000

5500000

Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

EXISTINGHome Sales

Since January 2012

NAR 1/2017

Page 38: January 2017

4,300,000

4,400,000

4,500,000

4,600,000

4,700,000

4,800,000

4,900,000

5,000,000

5,100,000

5,200,000

5,300,000

5,400,000

5,500,000

5,600,000

5,700,000

Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

EXISTINGHome Sales

Since January 2014

NAR 1/2017

Page 39: January 2017

15.4% 15.7%

11.6%

18.8% 19.0%

U.S. Northeast South Midwest West

Y-O-Y by region

EXISTINGHome Sales

NAR 1/2017

Page 40: January 2017

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2015 2016

Existing Home Sales in thousands

Freddie Mac

Page 41: January 2017

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2015 2016

New Home Sales in thousands

Freddie Mac

Page 42: January 2017

New Home Sales Annualizedin thousands

Census

Page 43: January 2017

3%

11%

35%

25%

11% 12%

4%

Under $150K $150-$199K $200-$299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K

% of sales by price range

New Home Sales

Census

Page 44: January 2017

3.0

3.23.3

3.8

4.03.9

4.0

3.5 3.5

3.2

2.93.0

2.9

3.3

3.7

4.04.1

3.8

4.0

3.6

3.23.1 3.1

3.2

New Homes Selling Fast(median months from completion to sold)

Census

Page 45: January 2017

320340

451

497

542

616594

547

507483

387

341359

471

525

578

632

568586

530

490

456

January February March April May June July August September October November

2015 2016

Total Home Salesin thousands

Freddie Mac

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January February March April May June July August September October November December

Pending Home Sales

2014

2015

2016

NAR 1/2017

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90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

100 = Historically Healthy Level

PENDING Home Salessince 2012

NAR 1/2017

Page 48: January 2017

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

January 2014 January 2015 January 2016

100 = Historically Healthy Level

PENDING Home Salessince 2014

NAR 1/2017

Page 49: January 2017

-0.4%

-2.4%

-1.0% -1.3%

5.7%PENDINGHome SalesYear-Over-Year By Region

U.S. Midwest West South Northeast

NAR 1/2017

Page 50: January 2017

Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

Percentage ofDistressed Property

Sales

35%

January 2012 - Today6%

9%

NAR 1/2017

Page 51: January 2017

Home Prices

Page 52: January 2017

6.8%

3.3%

8.5%

6.5%

9.2%

U.S. Northeast West Midwest South

Y-O-Y by region

EXISTINGHome Prices

NAR 1/2017

Page 53: January 2017

-2.4%

20.7%

35.4%31.9%

43.2%

33.9%

$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+% -2.4% 20.7% 35.4% 31.9% 43.2% 33.9%

% Change in Salesfrom last year by Price Range

NAR 1/2017

Page 54: January 2017

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

June 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016

Year-Over-Year

PRICECHANGES

Case Shiller

S&P Case Shiller 1/2017

Page 55: January 2017

13.2%12.9%

12.4%

10.8%

9.3%

8.1%

6.7%

5.6%

4.8%4.5%

4.3% 4.4%4.6%

5.0% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0%4.7%

5.4% 5.5%5.7% 5.7% 5.7%

5.4% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3%5.1% 5.0% 5.1%

5.4%5.6%

Jan 2014

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite

Case Shiller

S&P Case Shiller 1/2017

Page 56: January 2017

Jan 2014

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite

Case Shiller

S&P Case Shiller 1/2017

Page 57: January 2017

Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State

CoreLogic

Page 58: January 2017

Quicken Loans

-1.8 -1.75

-1.99-2.17

-1.95 -1.89 -1.93

-1.69-1.56

-1.26-1.15

-1.00

Jan-16 Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec% -1.8 -1.75 -1.99 -2.17 -1.95 -1.89 -1.93 -1.69 -1.56 -1.26 -1.15 -1.00

Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates

Last 12 Months

Page 59: January 2017

HOUSINGINVENTORY

Page 60: January 2017

Seller TrafficBy State

NAR

Page 61: January 2017

January 2011

January 2012

January 2013

January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

2011 - Today

NAR 1/2017

Page 62: January 2017

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

last 2 years

NAR 1/2017

Page 63: January 2017

3.94.0

4.4 4.4

4.7 4.7

4.5

4.74.6

4.44.3

4.0

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

Last 12 Months

NAR 1/2017

Page 64: January 2017

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

% -24% -20. -16. -14%-13% -7.6 -5% -6.2 1.8%0.9%5.0%1.6%7.3%5.3%3.2%6.5% 6% 5.5%5.8%4.5% 6% 5.2% 5% -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 2.0% -0.9 1.8%0.4% -4.7 -1.7 -3.1 -4.5 -1.9 -3.8 -2.2 -1.1 -1.5 -3.6 -9.6 -5.8 -5.8 -10. -6.8 -10. -9.3

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

NAR 1/2017

Page 65: January 2017

HOUSING SUPPLYYear-Over-Year

-3.8%

-2.2%

-1.1%-1.5%

-3.6%

-9.6%

-5.8% -5.8%

-10.1%

-6.8%

-4.3%

-9.3%

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Last 12 MonthsNAR 1/2017

Page 66: January 2017

4.8

4.5

5.0 5.0 5.0

5.5

5.2 5.2

5.8

5.6

5.45.5 5.5 5.5

5.1 5.15.2

4.6

5.2

5.0

5.25.1

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov

2015 2016 Census

New Home Inventory months supply

Page 67: January 2017

5.2

5.5 5.5 5.5

5.1 5.15.2

4.6

5.2

5.0

5.25.1

Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov

New Home Inventory months supply

Census

Last 12 Months

Page 68: January 2017

BUYERDEMAND

Page 69: January 2017

Buyer TrafficBy State

NAR

Page 70: January 2017

Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

Foot Trafficindicator of future sales

NAR 1/2017

Page 71: January 2017

Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov

Foot Trafficindicator of future sales

NAR 1/2017

Last 12 Months

Page 72: January 2017

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2015 2016

Foot Trafficindicator of future sales

NAR 1/2017

Page 73: January 2017

INTERESTRATES

Page 74: January 2017

3.974.20

3.39

3.49

3.59

3.69

3.79

3.89

3.99

4.09

4.19

4.29 30 Year FixedRate Mortgages

from Freddie Mac

Freddie Mac 1/2016

Page 75: January 2017

Quarter Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average

of All Four

2017 2Q 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.25

2017 3Q 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.33

2017 4Q 4.2 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.43

2018 1Q 4.2 ? 4.7 ? ?

Mortgage Rate Projections

1/2017

Page 76: January 2017

Mortgage Credit Availability

YES NO MAYBE

Page 77: January 2017

Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Credit Availability

MBA

Page 78: January 2017

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 November

Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX (a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)

MBA

Page 79: January 2017

49 50

46

44 44

45

46 46 46

48 48

49

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov

Average Days To Close A Loan

All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

Last 12 Months

Page 80: January 2017

722

719720

722723

724

726727

731 731730

728

Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov

FICO Score Requirements Last 12 months

All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

Page 81: January 2017

0.02% 0.41%

8.6%

21.3%24.6%

32.2%

13.0%

500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+

FICO Score Distribution

54.9%All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

Page 82: January 2017

728753

686

709

All Loans Conventional FHA VA

Average FICO Scorefor Closed Purchase Loans

by Loan Type

All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

Page 83: January 2017

3835

42 40

All Loans Conventional FHA VA

Average Back End DTIfor Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type

All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

Page 84: January 2017

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

4 Patricia Laya Quote https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-23/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-rises-to-11-year-high-after-trump-win

5 Luke Kawa Quote https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-23/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-rises-to-11-year-high-after-trump-win

6 Steve Liesman Quote http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09/optimism-on-economy-stocks-surges-since-trump-election-cnbc-survey.html

7 Michelle Jamrisko Quote https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/u-s-consumer-confidence-index-increased-to-113-7-in-december

8 The Consumer Confidence Index http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/28/news/economy/consumer-confidence-trump/index.html

11-12 Housing Inventory by Category https://www.trulia.com/blog/trends/inventory-q42016/

15 Mortgage Rate Projection Quotes http://www.hsh.com/finance/mortgage/yearly-mortgage-outlook.htmlhttp://www.inman.com/2016/12/09/will-happen-mortgage-rates-2017-7-expert-opinions

16 Freddie Mac Quote http://freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/fixed-mortgage-rates-move-higher-otcqb-fmcc-1291436

17, 22-23 MarketWatch.com Quotes http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housings-big-question-what-will-happen-when-buyers-think-4-rates-are-crazy-2016-12-22?mod=mw_share_twitter

18 Realtor Magazine Quote http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2016/12/30/putting-mortgage-rates-perspective#.WGbTIPwydSE.twitter

19, 92 Median Asking Rent http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

20 Zillow Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2016-12-30-U-S-Housing-Worth-Record-High-29-6-Trillion-in-2016

21 Lawrence Yun Quote https://www.nar.realtor/news-releases/2016/12/home-sales-expected-to-expand-modestly-in-2017-as-affordability-pressures-temper-buyer-enthusiasm

27 Fannie Mae Quote http://www.thehomestory.com/home-equity-could-be-an-important-source-of-financial-security-in-retirement/

28-30 Equity Quote & Maps http://www.corelogic.com/research/negative-equity/corelogic-q3-2016-equity-report.pdf

31, 106 Significant Equity Chart http://fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/commentary/080315-deggendorf-wilcox.html?sf11644984=1http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/homeowner-equity-report.aspx#.VnuAKpMrJE4

36,60, 69 Average Days on Market,Buyer & Seller Traffic Maps http://nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index

Page 85: January 2017

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

10, 37-39, 50, 52-53, 61-65

Existing Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/

40-41, 45 Freddie Mac Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdfhttp://nar.realtor/

42-44, 66-67 New Home Sales, Inventory http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

9, 46-49, Pending Home Sales Report http://nar.realtor/

54-56 Case Shiller Price Index https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/461749_cshomeprice-release-1227.pdf?force_download=true

26-26, 57 CoreLogic Price Changes http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx#

24, 32-33, 58 Appraisal Challenge http://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2016/12/13/appraiser-opinions-trail-owner-estimates-one-percent/

70-72 Foot Traffic http://nar.realtor/

13, 74 Freddie Mac Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

14, 75 Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_122016.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/201612-Outlook-12%2021%2016.pdfhttps://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/MFF_DEC16.pdfhttps://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/reports/2016/embargoes/forecast-12-2016-us-economic-outlook-12-14-2016.pdf

77-78 Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index

79-83, 104 Ellie Mae Report http://www.elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_NOVEMBER2016.pdf

87 SmartAsset.com Quote https://smartasset.com/mortgage/real-estate-trends-2017

91 5 Reasons to Own https://www.trulia.com/blog/buying-your-first-home-for-financial-security/

95, 101 FSBO Slides http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2016/11/17/homes-sell-for-more-with-a-realtor-than-if-you-sell-solo-research-says/http://nar.realtor/reports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers

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“Whether you’re preparing to purchase a new home or sell an old house in the new year, it’s important to know how housing trends could affect you. Keeping your finger on the pulse of the market can help you avoid being left out in the cold by rising interest rates or a widening gap between supply and demand.”

SmartAsset.com

Page 88: January 2017

3 Ways to Use KCM Materials

When Prospecting

Page 89: January 2017

Direct Mail

Page 90: January 2017

RentersApartmentLeaseRENTERS

Page 91: January 2017

Reasons Why Homeownership isa Good Financial Investment5

5.Overall,homeownerscanenjoygreaterwealthgrowththanrenters.“Owningahomeisoneofthemostcommonwayshouseholdsbuildlong-termwealth,asitactslikeaforcedsavingsaccount.Insteadofpayingyourlandlord,youcanpayyourselfinthelongrunthroughpayingdownamortgageonahouse.”

– RalphMcLaughlin– TruliaChiefEconomist

1.Mortgagepaymentscanbefixedwhilerentsgoup.2.Equityinyourhomecanbeafinancialresourcelater.3.Youcanbuildwealthwithoutpayingcapitalgains.4.Amortgagecanactasaforcedsavingsaccount.

Trulia

Page 92: January 2017

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Median Asking

RENTsince 1988

Census

Page 93: January 2017

FSBOs

Page 94: January 2017

Reasons to Hire a Real Estate Professional5

They help with all disclosures and paperwork necessary in today’s heavily regulated environment.

They are well educated in and experienced with the entire sales process.

They act as a ‘buffer’ in negotiations with all parties throughout the entire transaction.

They help understand today’s real estate values when setting the price on a listing or on an offer to purchase.

They simply and effectively explain today’s real estate headlines and decipher what they mean to you.

Page 95: January 2017

By FSBO By AGENT

$168K $185K

$245K

FSBOs where buyer knew seller

All FSBOs Homes Sold by an Agent

Typical Sold PriceFSBO vs. Agent

Source: NAR

Studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.

Page 96: January 2017

Door Knocking or 10/10/20

Page 97: January 2017

The Buyer’s Guide

Page 98: January 2017

The Seller’s Guide

Page 99: January 2017

Conversations

Page 100: January 2017

“I’m thinking of selling my house on my own.”

Page 101: January 2017

By FSBO By AGENT

$168K $185K

$245K

FSBOs where buyer knew seller

All FSBOs Homes Sold by an Agent

Typical Sold PriceFSBO vs. Agent

Source: NAR

Studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.

Page 102: January 2017

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

The percentage of homes selling as a FSBO hasdecreased to 8%, the lowest number recorded since 1981.

FSBOs as a Percentage of all Home Sales

Page 103: January 2017

“I’m not sure my credit score is high enough to buy a home.”

Page 104: January 2017

0.02% 0.41%

8.6%

21.3%24.6%

32.2%

13.0%

500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+

FICO Score Distribution

54.9%All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae

Page 105: January 2017

“I don’t know if I’d get enough money from my house to make

it worth selling.”

Page 106: January 2017

FannieMae&CoreLogic

37%

79.1%

% who believe they have > than 20% equity % who actually have > 20% equity

SignificantEquity (>20%)

Perceived/Actual

Page 107: January 2017

JANUARY 2017