JAN, FEB, MAR & Q1 2018 - Faith Wilson Group · If your mortgage is pre-approved with your rate...

WESTSIDEVANCOUVER’S MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE ANALYSIS

Faith Wilson Group Presents

JAN, FEB, MAR & Q1 2018

UNIT SALES

UNIT SALES

UNIT SALES

INVENTORY going into Q2



752

1556217

SOUTH GRANVILLE

HPI Benchmark price: YALETOWNHPI Benchmark price:

FALSE CREEK

HPI Benchmark price:$4,194,100$1,798,500 $875,400

9.27% DECREASE vs. Q1 2017 18.54% INCREASE

vs. Q1 2017 13.1% INCREASE vs. Q1 2017

vs. Q1 2017

vs. Q1 2017

vs. Q1 2017

DETACHED

TOWNHOME

611

1508

199

CONDOS

1Q1 2018: Q4 2017: Q1 2017:

Q1 2018: 79Q4 2017: 88Q1 2017: 118

Q1 2018: 904Q4 2017: 950Q1 2017: 108718.75% INCREASE

3.08% INCREASE

8.29% INCREASE

146191248

Faith’s Exclusive Westside Analysis

Welcome to spring and what should be the beginning of another busy home buying season in Metro Vancouver. March is traditionally the signal for the season’s start but it is clouded this year by the most outlandish tax grab

in Canadian housing history.

The British Columbia government has added a new level of residential taxes that distinctly and negatively affects Metro Vancouver homebuyers and homeowners. It is particularly targeted at the Westside of Vancouver but also affects other premiere communities.

What New Homebuyers Can ExpectFor homebuyers there are higher taxes, immediately, on purchasing premium properties.

The property transfer tax was already 3% on values of over $2 million. The February 20, 2018 provincial budget added a new top rate of 5% on values above $3 million.

The B.C. budget also increased the already punitive foreign-home buyer tax from 15% to 20% of the home’s value, also immediately.

Understanding The Increases In Residential Property TaxFor homeowners, the 2018 BC Budget layered two new tiers on top of the basic residential property tax, starting in 2019.

Under the new annual school tax, residential property valued above $3 million faces an additional tax of 0.2% for the first million dollars in assessed value. The tax increases to 0.4% for every million dollars above that.

For example, a home worth $4 million would be subject to an additional $2,000 per year under the school tax. A home assessed at $5 million would pay an additional $2,000 on the first million dollars, plus $4,000 on the second million dollars for a total increased property tax of $6,000, annually.

For thousands of Vancouverites who have sacrificed to own a nice house, this tax is a retroactive penalty that undermines affordability.

B.C.’s New Speculation TaxIt gets worse for those who own a home in Vancouver that they do not occupy for more than six months of the year. B.C.’s new speculation tax levies an annual 2% tax on assessed value for foreign owners of such seasonal property, a 1% tax on out-of-province owners and a 0.5% tax on British Columbians who own a second home in Metro Vancouver that they use occasionally. Owners of such Vancouver properties would also be subject to a 1% empty home tax levied by the City of Vancouver,

It is not surprising, therefore, that first-quarter housing sales in Metro Vancouver fell to the lowest first-quarter level in five years, with March sales down nearly 30% from a year earlier.

I am a Realtor and don’t pretend to understand the political machinations that make such punitive home taxes possible. But I believe that punishing any British Columbian for working hard, saving hard, and who are helping to build this province is simply the wrong direction.

Warmest Regards,

Spring Clouded by Audacious Tax Penalties

The information included in this report is based on residential sales data and statistcal information sourced and compiled from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s MLXchange database and the REALTOR Link® website. The information is current as of March 1st, 2018 and is subject to change by the REBGV. Faith Wilson Realty Group Inc., makes no guarantees as to the accuracy of the information provided and is not responsible for changes, errors or omissions to this information.

Discover YOUR neighbourhood's real estate market activity,

trends & benchmark pricing.

Finding the right home in the right neighbourhood can be a challenge. That is why we have our exclusive Neighbourhood Profiles available for you on our web site. Each profile features: • Information on the neighbourhood's

schools, housing, recreation, shopping, restaurants, transportation and more.

• A summary of CURRENT active listings, arranged by property type and showing the number of units available and the median asking price.

• Up-to-date MLS® HPI Benchmark prices AND price changes from one month to five years - a rich resource to instantly see the price trend of the type of home you are interested in, within your specific neighbourhood.

To do so, visit FaithWilsonGroup.com and find out about Vancouver Westside, Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon.


The majority of economists expect that the Bank of Canada will continue to increase interest rates in 2018.

So what can you do to protect your home purchasing power in the face of increasing rates? Get pre-approved! This process provides you with an all-important interest rate guarantee should rates increase while you are shopping for a home. I suggest this even if you are just thinking about the idea of buying a new home now, since a pre-approved mortgage is absolutely free and carries no obligation to purchase. And you never know when that dream home might appear. With the housing market being this active, it is most important to be prepared when making a home purchase. If your mortgage is pre-approved with your rate locked in, you will know what you can realistically afford to pay for a home and, based on your current financial situation, you will know exactly how much you can borrow.

Let’s assume that you firmly intend to buy a house and you now need a mortgage. If you did not get pre-approved, and rates increased, you will now qualify for a lower mortgage.

Simply put, when interest rates increase, your purchasing power decreases.

Most financial institutions offer 120 day mortgage rate guarantees with the pre-approval. How does this work? Basically, todays interest rate, including any discount you receive, is guaranteed for 120 days while you shop for a home. If interest rates go up during that time, you automatically receive the guaranteed rate you have locked in. If you are lucky enough that rates go down before you complete your purchase, you get the lower rate. It is a win-win situation for you, courtesy of your financial institution.

Some financial institutions, including RBC, offer mortgage rate holds for much longer periods of time if needed. This is the case if you have purchased a pre-sale, where the closing date of your purchase can be years away. Much can happen when waiting, say 24 months for your home purchase to complete, so it is very wise to obtain a firm approval and rate hold now.

For people who have been timing their entry into the housing market or for those looking to

upgrade their homes, the looming reversal in affordability trending may be a sign to act. With interest rates still near record lows, now more than ever, prospective homebuyers should speak to a mortgage specialist so they can feel confident about buying a home before rates increase.

Next Step: Get solidly pre-approved and lock in todays rates. You will need to confirm your income, down payment amount and overall credit worthiness. Then you can shop with confidence when looking at homes that are within your budget, and act quickly and confidently when you find the right home.

~ Kevin Lutz, Regional Manager, Residential Mortgages

Follow Kevin on Twitter @RBCKevinLutz

Mortgage Rates Increasing in 2018? Protect Your Purchasing Power

Lorraine Gingras

Mortgage SpecialistRBC Royal [email protected]

Stress Test Need Not Stall Move-Up PlansBob and Jean have owned their Burnaby bungalow for seven years and planned to move up to a larger house as the children became older. With a good credit rating, a stable household income and 40% worth of equity in a house assessed at $1.5 million, the couple were surprised when they went to their bank for a pre-approved mortgage for their move-up purchase.

Since the new mortgage stress test was introduced on January 1, the couple found that they could not qualify for the quality of home they really wanted.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions mortgage stress test requires that buyers with more than a 20 per cent down payment must qualify at Bank of Canada’s 5 year benchmark rate, which is currently set at 5.14%, or at the current contracted rate plus 2% whichever is higher.

For Bob and Jean this meant that, despite never being late with a mortgage payment and willing to put down a substantial down payment, their purchasing power was reduced by about 20%. Planning to move up to a larger house worth $1.8 million to $1.9 million, they were told they could qualify at $1.5 million or less. In other

words, the same house they already own.

The stress test is meant to ensure buyers can afford a mortgage if lending rates should increase. However, a mere 0.16% of B.C. mortgage holders are currently in arrears, meaning they have missed three or more mortgage payments. This means just 1,008 out of 644,984 mortgage holders in B.C. are behind in mortgage payments. This is the second-lowest mortgage arrears rate in Canada and the lowest default rate among all other forms of consumer debt.

Over the past 15 years, through fluctuating mortgage rates, Canada’s overall mortgage arrears rate has never risen above 0.35%.

So, logic aside, what can a move-up buyer do to achieve the home they want?

Here is some advice from the Faith Wilson Group mortgage specialist:

• Remember that you only need to qualify at the higher rate, not actually pay it. The best five-year rate today is 3.49%, so even if the new stress test requires you to qualify at 5.14%, you would be paying the contracted rate of 3.49% on your mortgage once you qualify for the loan.

• Use the existing equity in the home to eliminate smaller debts, such as credit cards and car loans, to make your mortgage application more acceptable. (Note, however, that refinancing a home is also subject to the stress test at federally regulated lenders.)

• Consider taking the maximum-allowed 30-year amortization on a non-insured mortgage, which will reduce your monthly payments compared to the convention 25-year amortization.

The bottom line advice: talk to mortgage professional and you may find that, despite the stress-test, you can buy the move-up home you want and can afford nearly stress free.


THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: JAN 2018

JANUARY - SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES

SALES AND BENCHMARK PRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 1 Month 3 Months

Arbutus 4 $3,931,600 -1.7 -1.39

Cambie 3 $2,704,900 1.54 -1.64

Dunbar 6 $3,107,100 2.27 2.51

Kerrisdale 2 $3,421,600 -1.8 -3.17

Kitsilano 2 $2,399,600 -2.03 -5.64

MacKenzie Heights 1 $3,696,200 -1.72 -2.85

Marpole 4 $2,264,300 0.69 -4.81

Mount Pleasant VW 0 $2,545,900 1.62 -2.27

Oakridge VW 0 $3,330,900 0.98 2.64

Point Grey 5 $3,856,500 -1.32 -2.68

Quilchena 3 $4,056,900 -3.73 -3.43

S.W. Marine 2 $3,288,600 2.27 -2.22

Shaughnessy 3 $6,234,400 2.72 0.23

South Cambie 0 $3,793,000 0.02 0.98

South Granville 4 $4,406,200 -2.25 -5.99

Southlands 0 $3,541,600 1.19 -1.22

University VW 3 $6,211,800 -1.64 -2.84

Combined Total 42 $3,548,400 -0.22 -2.15

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit Sales

0 – 2,000,000 9 3 33%

2,000,001 – 2,250,000 2 2 100%

2,250,001 – 2,500,000 14 3 21%

2,500,001 – 2,750,000 7 0 0%

2,750,001 – 3,000,000 21 3 14%

3,000,001 – 3,250,000 10 1 10%

3,250,001 – 3,500,000 21 4 19%

3,500,001 – 3,750,000 18 8 44%

3,750,001 – 4,000,000 21 5 24%

4,000,001 – 4,500,000 26 3 12%

4,500,001 – 5,000,000 21 2 10%

5,000,001 – 6,000,000 29 4 14%

6,000,001 – 7,000,000 25 2 8%

7,000,001 – 8,000,000 18 1 6%

8,000,000 – 10,000,000 11 0 0%

10,000,001+ 21 1 5%

Totals 274 42 15%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENTSales-to-New-Listings Ratio

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n In January, 274 West Side detached house owners listed their property

for sale, including 57 who listed at $7 million or more. Just 15 per cent of all new listings sold and only 5% of the most expensive houses found buyers during the month. Yet, despite the relatively low sales-to-new listings in January, the benchmark price of a Westside house was virtually unchanged (down 0.2%) from a month earlier at $3.54 million. In the popular neighbourhoods of Cambie, Dunbar, Shaughnessy Mount Pleasant and Oakridge, detached prices were slightly higher than in December.

n While some see the January data as signally a market downturn, we see it as a natural, temporary reaction to disruptive external forces. It only makes sense that someone contemplating a $3 to $10 million plus purchase would have paused to take stock this January. The month saw the introduction of unprecedented changes in federally regulated mortgages, the third interest increase in eight months, and the roll out of Vancouver’s punitive empty home tax. The provincial government plans to introduce new regulations for home buying and selling in February, and no one, including, we suspect, the government knows exactly what those changes will be.

n But the Westside detached housing fundamentals remain rock solid. It is the most aspiring destination in B.C. and land values reflect the inherent demand. New zoning regulations allow increased density - and income – for Westside detached lots. Tens of thousands of new Canadians are arriving in the city every year. January Westside detached sales, at 42 houses, were nearly double the pace of a month earlier. Some are waiting for the dust to settle but this year will see increased listings and improved strength in Westside detached housing sales.

$5,000,000

$4,500,000

$4,000,000

$3,500,000

$3,000,000

$2,500,000

$2,000,000

Days

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

SALES PRICE MONTHLY TREND

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

AUG. 17 SEP. 17 OCT. 17 NOV. 17 DEC. 17 JAN. 18

DAYS ON MARKET MONTHLY TREND

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et


$4,817,416

$3,970,000

$4,057,997

$3,652,448

$4,214,237

$3,565,000

$3,687,443

$3,270,000

$3,752,101

$3,300,000

$3,969,338

$3,700,500

46

38

52

28

47

29

53

39

58

62

70

54

January 152 42 -72.4%February March April May June Totals 152 42 -72.4%

2017 2018 CHANGEUNIT SALES (BY MONTH)

THE REAL WESTSIDE RESULTS: JAN 2018


Janaury 58 55 -5.2%February 90 36 -60%March April May June Total 158 91 -42.4%


THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: FEB 2018

FEBRUARY - SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES




Arbutus 2 $3,805,500 -3.12 -4.35

Cambie 6 $2,646,100 -1.85 -0.96

Dunbar 4 $3,098,100 -0.29 4.16

Fairview VW 0 $2,898,400 0.09 -2.41

Kerrisdale 1 $3,404,100 -0.45 -1.4

Kitsilano 5 $2,427,000 2.46 -1.68


Marpole 3 $2,285,400 0.95 -2.44

Mount Pleasant VW 0 $2,024,200 -1.67 -4.85

Oakridge VW 2 $3,250,100 -2.65 -2.2

Point Grey 4 $3,771,600 -2.61 -4.23

Quilchena 0 $4,016,200 -0.96 -4.65

S.W. Marine 0 $3,298,200 0.29 -0.45

Shaughnessy 2 $6,076,400 -2.56 -1.94

South Cambie 1 $3,713,700 -2.09 -1.43

South Granville 3 $4,205,500 -4.55 -7.31

Southlands 1 $3,552,800 0.32 -2.27

University VW 0 $5,820,600 -2.44 -3.93

Vancouver West 36 $3,418,200 -1.15 -2.03


0 – 2,000,000 5 2 40%

2,000,001 – 2,250,000 5 1 20%

2,250,001 – 2,500,000 14 4 29%

2,500,001 – 2,750,000 11 3 27%

2,750,001 – 3,000,000 28 4 14%

3,000,001 – 3,250,000 8 5 63%

3,250,001 – 3,500,000 16 6 38%

3,500,001 – 3,750,000 18 2 11%

3,750,001 – 4,000,000 17 1 6%

4,000,001 – 4,500,000 23 1 4%

4,500,001 – 5,000,000 23 1 4%

5,000,001 – 6,000,000 20 3 15%

6,000,001 – 7,000,000 26 0 0%

7,000,001 – 8,000,000 7 0 0%

8,000,000 – 10,000,000 13 1 8%

10,000,001+ 13 2 15%

Totals 247 36 15%


FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n The Westside detached house market is the target of more government

intrusion. Westside owners are carrying the weight of the new provincial super school tax on luxury homes. This annual tax is 0.2% on values from $3 million to $4 million and then 0.4% on values above $4 million. At the current benchmark Westside detached house price of $3.49 million, an owner would pay about $1,000 extra in school taxes every year. This is blatantly unfair, of course, to those who sacrificed for years to own a Westside detached house. But this is the reality we all must deal with. There is one narrow caveat to the new school tax: it does not apply to rental property of four or more units. Therefore, if an investor has a larger house converted to three rental units and also had a laneway house, they would be exempt from the school tax, even if the property – quite likely – exceeded $4 million in assessed value. It is strategy that some detached buyers and owners may consider.

n Even before the new taxes kicked in, half of the detached houses purchased on the Westside in February were listed at $3.25 million or less. Houses newly listed at from $3 million to $3.5 million had a healthy sales-to-new-listing ratio of 50.5%. But, of the 123 houses listed from $4 million and higher, there were only 8 sales. The message to buyers is clear: sellers of higher-priced Westside houses are under pressure from the market and the government. With 247 new listings added in February alone, the Westside now represents an unprecedented advantage to aspiring buyers. Faith Wilson Group provides the industry exclusive Peace of Mind Guarantee for Buyers. It is a Guarantee that is even more important in these volatile, but promising times.

$5,000,000

$4,500,000

$4,000,000

$3,500,000

$3,000,000

$2,500,000

$2,000,000

Days

80

70

60

50

40

30

20


– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

SEP. 17 OCT. 17 NOV. 17 DEC. 17 JAN. 18 FEB.18


– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et


$4,057,997

$3,652,448

$4,214,237

$3,565,000

$3,687,443

$3,270,000

$3,752,101

$3,300,000

$3,843,201

$3,650,000

$3,925,928

$3,210,000

52

28

47

29

53

39

58

62

63

30

45

20

THE REAL WESTSIDE RESULTS: FEB 2018


THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: MAR 2018

MARCH - SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES




Arbutus 1 $3,853,900 1.15 -3.64

Cambie 3 $2,616,600 -1.41 -1.77

Dunbar 7 $2,967,300 -4.22 -2.33

Kerrisdale 4 $3,299,400 -3.11 -5.31

Kitsilano 7 $2,329,000 -4.31 -4.91


Marpole 1 $2,316,700 1.51 3.03

Mount Pleasant VW 0 $2,616,200 3.94 4.43

Oakridge VW 1 $3,204,300 -1.17 -2.85

Point Grey 4 $3,739,900 -0.4 -4.3

Quilchena 1 $4,060,900 1.06 -3.63

S.W. Marine 2 $3,332,900 1.05 3.64

Shaughnessy 3 $5,879,900 -3.23 -3.12

South Cambie 0 $3,787,000 1.98 -0.13

South Granville 3 $4,194,100 -0.27 -6.96

Southlands 0 $3,655,600 2.89 4.45

University VW 1 $5,980,400 -1.25 -5.3

Combined Total 42 $3,449,000 -1.47 -3.01


0 – 2,000,000 11 3 27%

2,000,001 – 2,250,000 6 2 33%

2,250,001 – 2,500,000 11 6 55%

2,500,001 – 2,750,000 11 2 18%

2,750,001 – 3,000,000 36 9 25%

3,000,001 – 3,250,000 7 4 57%

3,250,001 – 3,500,000 18 4 22%

3,500,001 – 3,750,000 10 2 20%

3,750,001 – 4,000,000 15 3 20%

4,000,001 – 4,500,000 23 1 4%

4,500,001 – 5,000,000 16 3 19%

5,000,001 – 6,000,000 18 0 0%

6,000,001 – 7,000,000 22 1 5%

7,000,001 – 8,000,000 13 0 0%

8,000,000 – 10,000,000 7 0 0%

10,000,001+ 7 2 29%

Totals 231 42 18%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENT

THE REAL WESTSIDE RESULTS: MAR 2018


– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

$5,000,000 $4,750,000 $4,250,000 $4,000,000 $3,250,000 $3,000,000 $2,750,000

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

70

60

50

40

30

20

10


Days

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio


$4,214,237

$3,565,000

$3,687,443

$3,270,000

$3,752,101

$3,300,000

$3,843,210

$3,650,000

$3,722,284

$3,052,000

$3,560,619

$2,965,000

47

29

53

39

58

62

63

30

47

27

36

15

Janaury 58 55 -5.2%February 90 49 -45.6%March 100 42 -58.0%April May June Total 248 146 -41.1%


FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n March marked an historic point in Westside detached housing sales, but

one many are perhaps hesitant to celebrate: detached sales in the month fell to the lowest level for March in 25 years. Sales were down 58% from March of 2017 to just 42 houses. An unprecedented combination of negative measures from all three levels of government has had the intended affect of cooling the signature neighbourhood for Vancouver’s remarkable four-year detached housing boom.

n Some find it remarkable that Westside house prices remain resilient despite the dramatic sales decline. The March benchmark price for a Westside detached house was $3.4 million, the highest of any neighbourhood of its size in Canada and approximately seven times higher than the national benchmark. But look closely and you see that benchmark Westside detached prices were down 3% in March compared to three months earlier and are now at the same level as six months ago.

n The reality is that we are seeing price corrections on Westside detached houses. In fact a number of houses are being listed at less than the assessed value set on July 1 of last year. Sellers are being pro-active. In March, there were 11 detached Westside listings for $2 million or less. This compares with 1 such listing three months ago. In at least four Westside neighbourhoods, March selling prices were down more than 5% from December 2017. Of the 67 houses that came to the Westside market in March listed at $5 million or more, only two of them sold. For aspiring buyers who had hoped to see lower detached house prices on the Westside, this represents an opportunity. For Westside detached house sellers it is a time to make sure you are dealing with the best and most experienced real estate agency possible.


Q1 - SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES

THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: Q1 2018


BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE(%)


0 – 2,000,000 25 11 44%

2,000,001 – 2,250,000 16 6 38%

2,250,001 – 2,500,000 40 15 38%

2,500,001 – 2,750,000 33 7 21%

2,750,001 – 3,000,000 82 19 23%

3,000,001 – 3,250,000 22 13 59%

3,250,001 – 3,500,000 62 17 27%

3,500,001 – 3,750,000 42 14 33%

3,750,001 – 4,000,000 54 11 20%

4,000,001 – 4,500,000 66 9 14%

4,500,001 – 5,000,000 63 7 11%

5,000,001 – 6,000,000 64 7 11%

6,000,001 – 7,000,000 74 3 4%

7,000,001 – 8,000,000 38 1 3%

8,000,000 – 10,000,000 33 1 3%

10,000,001+ 38 5 13%

Totals 752 146 19%


THE REAL WESTSIDE RESULTS: Q1 2018

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND

Unit Sales (by Quarter)

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4Year-to-Date Totals

2017248

248

2018146

146

Change (%)

-41.1%

-41.1%

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

$4,300,000$4,200,000$4,000,000 $3,800,000 $3,600,000 $3,400,000$3,200,000

$3,713,455

$3,300,000

$3,968,398

$3,300,000

$4,234,422

$3,690,000

$3,982,408

$3,308,000

$3,722,248

$3,300,000

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

38

17

38

16

46

26

51

34

50

25

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND

Days

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018


MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Arbutus 9 $3,853,900 -3.64 -0.25

Cambie 12 $2,616,600 -1.77 6.03

Dunbar 21 $2,967,300 -2.33 -0.72

Kerrisdale 9 $3,299,400 -5.31 -0.34

Kitsilano 16 $2,329,000 -4.91 -5.13


Marpole 13 $2,316,700 3.03 0.79


Oakridge VW 4 $3,204,300 -2.85 5.89

Point Grey 14 $3,739,900 -4.3 1.49

Quilchena 5 $4,060,900 -3.63 -0.46

S.W. Marine 5 $3,332,900 3.64 1.11

Shaughnessy 10 $5,879,900 -3.12 4.02

South Cambie 1 $3,787,000 -0.13 6.5

South Granville 12 $4,194,100 -6.96 -9.27

Southlands 2 $3,655,600 4.45 3.01

University VW 5 $5,980,400 -5.3 -0.29

Combined Total 146 $3,449,000 -3.01 -0.37

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n O.K. everyone take a deep breath. We all need it after the first three

months of 2018 as Metro Vancouver housing sales fell to the lowest level in five years. It is not hard to understand why: each month came with a new government regulation or tax determined to slow Metro’s housing sales. But look back five years to the first quarter of 2013 when the media was reporting a crash and buyers were scarce. The Westside benchmark detached house price then was $2 million. This quarter the Westside benchmark house price is $3.4 million. Little wonder there is a deep-rooted belief that Vancouver homeownership remains a blue-chip investment.

n Now it is time to reassess and look at a Westside house for what it really is: not a quick-profit commodity but a long-term investment in your family’s comfort and financial security. And right now is a prime time for buyers to take advantage of the situation. In the last quarter of 2017, there were 13 Westside detached houses for sale at $2.25 million or less. In the first quarter of 2018 there are 41 such listings – and half of these were priced at less than $2 million. That is a sea change in a matter of weeks that not everyone is aware of.

n There is also a terrific inventory of detached houses now for sale on the Westside. In Q1, 752 new listings were added to the market, up 11% from a year earlier, but only 146 of them sold. Buyers are not dealing with on-the-threshold bidding wars or multiple offers this spring. It is taking an average of 50 days for a Westside detached house to sell, allowing plenty of time for buyers to make sure they have found the exact house they want and negotiate the best possible financing.



0 – 400,000 0 0 0%

400,001 – 500,000 1 0 0%

500,001 – 600,000 1 0 0%

600,001 – 700,000 2 1 50%

700,001 – 800,000 4 1 0%

800,001 – 900,000 1 1 100%

900,001 – 1,000,000 2 0 0%

1,000,001 – 1,100,000 2 0 0%

1,100,001 – 1,200,000 6 0 0%

1,200,001 – 1,300,000 7 5 71%

1,300,001 – 1,400,000 2 0 0%

1,400,001 – 1,500,000 3 2 67%

1,500,001 – 1,750,000 6 3 50%

1,750,001 – 2,000,000 11 3 27%

2,000,001 – 3,000,000 10 0 0%

3,000,000+ 3 0 0%

Totals 60 15 25%




JANUARY - TOWNHOUSES



Cambie 0 $1,148,800 -0.64 -3.19

Coal Harbour 0 $1,846,800 -0.62 -1.19

Downtown VW 2 $1,011,400 -0.07 -0.69

Fairview VW 0 $1,080,100 1.35 3.2

False Creek 0 $930,000 -0.17 -5.01

Kerrisdale 0 $1,456,600 -1.31 -4.21

Kitsilano 1 $1,082,200 -0.04 -3.89

Marpole 2 $1,055,800 1.05 0


Oakridge VW 0 $1,504,800 -1.87 -5.05

Point Grey 0 $1,087,000 -1.33 -4.67

Quilchena 0 $1,467,400 0.11 -1.69

Shaughnessy 0 $2,266,100 1.97 -0.67

South Cambie 0 $1,790,400 0.88 0.78

South Granville 0 $1,509,900 -1.76 -3.56

University VW 1 $1,631,400 -2.04 -4.93

West End VW 1 $1,201,000 1.1 0.29

Yaletown 6 $1,768,400 2.42 0.63

Vancouver West 15 $1,247,900 0.44 -1.36

$2,500,000

$2,250,000

$2,000,000

$1,750,000

$1,500,000

$1,250,000

$1,000,000

Days

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price



– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et


1,415,674

$1,300,000

$1,492,997

$1,320,000

$1,437,451

$1,265,000

$1,418,165

$1,100,000

$1,590,891

$1,620,000

$1,406,103

$1,450,000

23

13

28

12

17

7

17

10

30

21

23

13



FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n As expected with the introduction of new mortgage regulations on January

1, sales of Westside townhouses were rather slow in January, at 15 units. This was down 58,3% from January of last yer and slightly below the sales pace in December 2017. Listings increased, however, with 60 new listings in the month, up from 21 a month earlier. The resulting sales-to-new-listing ratio in January was 25%, a signal of a strong buyer’s market, but the sales data also shows the price sensitivity of Westside townhouse buyers. For new listings priced at from $1.4 million to $1.5 million, the sales success ratio was 67% and it was 71% from townhouses listed at from $1.2 million to $1.3 million. Sales dropped to zero for the 11 listings priced at $2 million or more.

n There is a lesson to townhouse sellers. This is because townhouses, even on the Westside, are often similar in design and size, so price plays an oversized role in a buyer’s decision. For instance, half of the 6 townhouses listed at from $1.5 million to $1.75 million sold in January, but when the list price went over $1.75 million, the sales ratio dropped to 27%, with just 3 of the 11 listings selling in the month. Sellers, therefore, have to be absolutely certain that their listing price reflects the true market value. Even a difference of 5% can mean a property selling within days or sitting on the market for weeks. Faith Wilson Group is third-party recognized for achieving faster sales at higher prices than the industry average. We do this through industry-leading research and more than 20 years experience in the Westside market cycles. We also provide the exclusive Peace of Mind Guarantee for Sellers, which is perhaps more important today than ever.




0 – 400,000 0 0 0%

400,001 – 500,000 0 0 0%

500,001 – 600,000 2 2 100%

600,001 – 700,000 3 3 100%

700,001 – 800,000 2 1 50%

800,001 – 900,000 1 2 200%

900,001 – 1,000,000 5 3 60%

1,000,001 – 1,100,000 6 4 67%

1,100,001 – 1,200,000 7 1 14%

1,200,001 – 1,300,000 4 2 50%

1,300,001 – 1,400,000 7 2 29%

1,400,001 – 1,500,000 5 0 0%

1,500,001 – 1,750,000 10 3 30%

1,750,001 – 2,000,000 14 3 21%

2,000,001 – 3,000,000 10 4 40%

3,000,000+ 5 0 0%

Totals 81 30 37%




FEBRUARY - TOWNHOUSES



Cambie 1 $1,158,800 0.87 -2.88

Coal Harbour 0 $1,857,100 0.56 0.19

Downtown VW 0 $1,008,400 -0.29 0

Fairview VW 8 $1,066,900 -1.23 -3.49

False Creek 3 $946,100 1.73 2.66

Kerrisdale 0 $1,467,400 0.74 -3.26

Kitsilano 6 $1,088,000 0.54 0.21

Marpole 1 $1,038,800 -1.61 -4.21

Mount Pleasant VW 3 $1,247,200 -0.78 -0.14

Oakridge VW 0 $1,519,100 0.95 -3.13

Point Grey 0 $1,100,700 1.26 -2.14

Quilchena 0 $1,474,000 0.45 -3.92

Shaughnessy 0 $2,278,600 0.55 -3.02

South Cambie 1 $1,747,000 -2.42 -5.39

South Granville 0 $1,531,400 1.42 -4.68

University VW 4 $1,651,000 1.2 -3.35

West End VW 2 $1,224,500 1.96 1.92

Yaletown 0 $1,776,300 0.45 1.02

Vancouver West 30 $1,250,100 0.18 -1.43

$2,500,000

$2,250,000

$2,000,000

$1,750,000

$1,500,000

$1,250,000

$1,000,000

Days

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price



– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et


$1,492,997

$1,320,000

$1,437,451

$1,265,000

$1,418,165

$1,100,000

$1,590,891

$1,620,000

$1,472,031

$1,420,000

$1,337,433

$1,125,000

28

12

17

7

17

10

30

21

26

14

18

8

Janaury 27 18 -33.3%February 37 30 -18.9%March April May June Total 64 48 -25%


FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n Don’t let the media’s quick scan of the data fool you. Considering the

low inventory of townhouse listings, the Westside townhouse market is very active and lively. If a new listing comes to the market at true market value it will likely sell very quickly and may attract multiple bids. Note, for instance, that 40% of the Westside townhouses listed at from $3 million to $4 million sold in February and that 67% of those priced from $1 million to $1.1 million also sold. The problem is a lack of inventory, not falling demand, despite all the government action to discourage buyers. Some popular neighbourhoods simply had no townhouses for sale in February. It is now taking up to two years for a new townhouse development to move through city planning and permits, so we will be facing tight inventory for some time to come.

n In February, the typical new listing for a Westside townhouse sold within a median of just 8 days, the fastest pace since last October. For buyers, the best advice is to have a trusted real estate agent on speed dial, ready to react immediately when a listing that matches your parameters appears. Faith Wilson Group’s team knows every Westside townhouse project and, due to our extensive experience and client data base, often hear first about new listings. For sellers, our best advice is make sure your listing price is accurate and that your property is in showroom condition. Benchmark townhouse prices are holding firm at $1.25 million, up marginally in February from a month earlier. Even with sales down from a year ago and the February sales-to-new-listing ratio at 37%, sellers of Westside townhouses have the advantage in a market characterized by a low selection of property and steady buyer demand.




0 – 400,000 0 0 0%

400,001 – 500,000 0 0 0%

500,001 – 600,000 1 1 100%

600,001 – 700,000 0 1 0%

700,001 – 800,000 2 0 0%

800,001 – 900,000 5 2 40%

900,001 – 1,000,000 6 1 17%

1,000,001 – 1,100,000 3 0 0%

1,100,001 – 1,200,000 3 0 0%

1,200,001 – 1,300,000 5 5 100%

1,300,001 – 1,400,000 10 3 30%

1,400,001 – 1,500,000 5 0 0%

1,500,001 – 1,750,000 7 4 57%

1,750,001 – 2,000,000 16 5 31%

2,000,001 – 3,000,000 12 3 25%

3,000,000+ 1 0 0%

Totals 76 25 33%



THE REAL WESTSIDE RESULTS:: MAR 2018 THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: MAR 2018

MARCH - TOWNHOUSES



Cambie 0 $1,190,100 2.7 2.93

Coal Harbour 0 $1,934,300 4.16 4.09

Downtown VW 2 $1,026,200 1.76 1.39

Fairview VW 4 $1,088,600 2.03 2.14

False Creek 1 $908,300 -3.99 -2.5

Kerrisdale 2 $1,526,500 4.03 3.42

Kitsilano 4 $1,080,400 -0.7 -0.21

Marpole 2 $1,113,900 7.23 6.61


Oakridge VW 1 $1,587,100 4.47 3.49

Point Grey 2 $1,132,900 2.93 2.84

Quilchena 0 $1,508,400 2.34 2.91

Shaughnessy 1 $2,302,900 1.07 3.63

South Cambie 1 $1,815,100 3.9 2.28

South Granville 0 $1,617,900 5.65 5.26

University VW 1 $1,718,900 4.11 3.22

West End VW 0 $1,214,000 -0.85 2.2

Yaletown 2 $1,798,500 1.25 4.17

Combined Total 25 $1,271,000 1.67 2.3

$1,600,000

$1,500,000

$1,400,000

$1,300,000

$1,200,000

$1,100,000

$1,000,000

Days

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price



– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et


$1,437,451

$1,265,000

$1,418,165

$1,100,000

$1,590,891

$1,620,000

$1,472,031

$1,420,000

$1,322,611

$1,202,000

$1,530,392

$1,396,000

17

7

17

10

30

21

26

23

18

24

16

24

Janaury 27 18 -33.3%February 37 36 -2.7%March 54 25 -53.7%April May June Total 118 79 -33.1%


FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n The Westside townhouse sector had its own double-cross to bear in March.

Sales declined a sharp 53.7% from a year earlier and, at 25 sales, were down 40% from February. Townhouse buyers were largely immune from the property transfer tax that affected detached sales, because the benchmark townhouse price in March was $1.2 million and only 1 Westside townhouse was listed at $3 million or more. What disrupted the townhouse sector was likely the mortgage stress test that now applies to all buyers, regardless of their downpayment. Many savvy buyers had pre-qualified for mortgages in November and December in anticipation of the stress test, which requires buyers to qualify at higher mortgage rates. But the pre-qualification period is normally for 120 days so most expired in March. From now on, the stress test will be in force and will continue to sideline or delay some purchasers.

n March had a fairly healthy inventory of townhouses available. There were 76 new listings, the highest level in six months. With 25 sales, however, the sales-to-new-listing ratio was very calm 33%. It now take a median of 35 days for a Westside townhouse to sell, which gives buyers what has been a rare opportunity to carefully shop and compare properties.

n The benchmark townhouse price on the Westside is now $1.27 million, up 1.6% from February and 2.3% higher than in March of 2017. The price picture is somewhat hazy, however, because of the low number of sales in some neighbourhoods. Marpole, for instance, posted a market-leading 7.2% increase in its benchmark price from a month earlier, to $1.11 million, while Kitsilano posted a 0.7% decline to $1.08 million. But there were only 5 townhouse sales in both neighbourhoods combined. Generally, Westside townhouse prices have stabilized and will likely remain so for some time.


Q1 - TOWNHOUSES


Q1

Q2

Q3


2017118

118

201879

79

Change (%)

-33.1%

-33.1%


THE REAL WESTSIDE RESULTS: Q1 2018 THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: Q1 2018


Sales-To-New



0 – 400,000 0 0 0

400,001 – 500,000 0 0 0

500,001 – 600,000 4 3 75%

600,001 – 700,000 5 5 100%

700,001 – 800,000 8 1 13%

800,001 – 900,000 7 5 71%

900,001 – 1,000,000 12 5 42%

1,000,001 – 1,100,000 12 4 33%

1,100,001 – 1,200,000 17 3 18%

1,200,001 – 1,300,000 15 14 93%

1,300,001 – 1,400,000 19 7 37%

1,400,001 – 1,500,000 13 2 15%

1,500,001 – 1,750,000 25 11 44%

1,750,001 – 2,000,000 40 11 28%

2,000,001 – 3,000,000 31 8 26%

3,000,000+ 9 0 0%

Totals 217 79 36%


Cambie 1 $1,190,100 2.93 0.85

Coal Harbour 3 $1,934,300 4.09 16.45

Downtown VW 5 $1,026,200 1.39 16.14

Fairview VW 13 $1,088,600 2.14 19.83

False Creek 4 $908,300 -2.5 10.35

Kerrisdale 2 $1,526,500 3.42 2.75

Kitsilano 12 $1,080,400 -0.21 10.22

Marpole 5 $1,113,900 6.61 14.33


Oakridge VW 1 $1,587,100 3.49 2.39

Point Grey 2 $1,132,900 2.84 2.41

Quilchena 0 $1,508,400 2.91 2.83

Shaughnessy 1 $2,302,900 3.63 3.53

South Cambie 2 $1,815,100 2.28 5.54

South Granville 0 $1,617,900 5.26 5.97

University VW 8 $1,718,900 3.22 1.58

West End VW 3 $1,214,000 2.2 11.42

Yaletown 10 $1,798,500 4.17 18.54

Combined Total 79 $1,271,000 2.3 11.26

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018

$1,500,000 $1,400,000 $1,300,000 $1,200,000$1,100,000$1,000,000

$900,000

$1,375,439

$1,300,000

$1,365,058

$1,304,944

$1,475,396

$1,282,000

$1,469,458

$1,277,500

$1,422,409

$1,300,000

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND

Days

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

29

8

21

9

24

12

20

10

19

9

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018


FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n Sales of Westside townhouses dropped 33% in Q1 compared to the same

period last year, but there are clear signs that townhouse sales will recover quickly. First, the typical new listing sold within a median of just 9 days in Q1. Second, the benchmark price advanced 2.3% from a month earlier and was up 11.2% (that is more than $125,000) from the end of 2017. We are still seeing multiple offers on premium townhouse properties. Third is that Q1 townhouse sales were seen in 17 of the 18 Westside neighbourhoods that we monitor. Also, there was strong buyer activity through a wide price spectrum.

n The Westside townhouse benchmark price in Q1 was $1.27 million but the price range was fairly broad. The lowest townhouse price was in False Creek, where 4 buyers paid a benchmark of $908,500; the highest was the $2.3 million a buyer paid for a Shaughnessy townhouse; another 10 buyers paid a benchmark of $1.7 million for a Yaletown townhouse. The most popular neighbourhoods for buyers were Fairview, with 13 sales, and Kitsilano, with 12 sales. Prices in both of these neighbourhoods were nearly identical at $1.08 million. Such a consistent action in various price points reveals the depth of the buyer demand for Westside townhouses.

n After a relative lull in 2017, starts of Vancouver townhouses and condos nearly doubled during the Q1. In all, 1,592 multi-family units started in the past three months, compared to 744 in the same period last year. An estimated 285 of these are new Vancouver townhouses. And many more are coming. In Phase 3 of the Cambie corridor development, plans are for 14,000 new homes and the zoning emphasis is on townhouses. New townhouse prices will be higher, likely much higher, than what is available in the resale market.



JANUARY - APARTMENTS /CONDOS




Cambie 10 $699,300 2.68 3.63

Coal Harbour 10 $1,053,200 -3.42 -1.19

Downtown VW 44 $730,300 1.61 0.51

Dunbar 2 $708,100 4.27 -0.17

Fairview VW 16 $807,000 0.78 2.79

False Creek 20 $842,500 0.52 -2.21

Kerrisdale 1 $912,900 5.12 0.87

Kitsilano 14 $640,100 1.04 3.67

Marpole 10 $599,600 3.95 4.87

Mount Pleasant VW 1 $565,900 0.32 -3.67

Oakridge VW 3 $1,105,500 3.27 2.14

Point Grey 2 $610,300 3.78 -0.33

Quilchena 3 $1,128,200 3.07 -0.66

S.W. Marine 1 $491,600 3.28 -0.65

Shaughnessy 0 $659,600 4.56 -3.67

South Cambie 0 $934,800 3.66 1.2

South Granville 2 $1,018,400 3.95 5.09

Southlands 0 $810,800 2.86 -0.59

University VW 22 $905,600 1.28 -2.78

West End VW 21 $646,800 -4.87 -3.07

Yaletown 39 $880,900 2.6 4.51

Combined Total 221 $812,400 0.65 0.73


0 – 350,000 2 1 50%

350,001 – 400,000 1 1 100%

400,000 – 450,000 5 3 60%

450,001 – 500,000 8 2 25%

500,001 – 550,000 8 5 63%

550,001 – 600,000 21 16 76%

600,001 – 650,000 26 18 69%

650,001 – 700,000 38 9 24%

700,001 – 750,000 32 19 59%

750,001 – 800,000 25 21 84%

800,001 – 900,000 35 19 54%

900,001 – 1,000,000 39 16 41%

1,000,001 – 1,250,000 62 33 53%

1,250,001 – 1,500,000 42 27 64%

1,500,000 – 2,000,000 53 15 28%

2,000,001 + 73 16 22%

Totals 470 221 47%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENTSales-to-New- Listings Ratio

$1,150,000$1,000,000

$950,000$900,000$850,000$800,000$750,000


– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

$942,788

$769,500

$973,139

$790,000

$997,030

$789,500

$978,916

$785,000

$947,066

$760,000

$1,166,624

$888,800


Days

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et


22

11

21

9

21

9

21

11

19

10

9

7



FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n Don’t let the January sales data about the Westside condominium market

fool you. True, condominium apartment sales were down 39.9% from January of last year and the sales-to-new listing ratio was a modest 47%, with 221 of the 470 new listing selling. But when one looks closely, the Westside condominium market in January proved a robust start to what we believe could be a record-setting year for price and sales performance. Remember that January marked the start of the most restrictive federal mortgage regulations ever introduced. Then there was an increase in mortgage rates, and the punitive Vancouver empty home tax came into effect. Facing these headwinds, the fact that 221 buyers paid a benchmark price of more than $800,000 for a Westside condo is remarkable.

n Also, look closely at the sales success ration For many sellers, the sales ratio was well above 60%, which is considered a seller’s market: 84% of the 25 condo apartments listed at from $750,000 to $800,000 sold; 64% of those listed at from $1.2 million to $1.5 million sold and 64% of the 71 condos listed for less than $650,000 also sold. Even at the very highest prices, in excess of $1.5 million, 31 Westside condo apartments were purchased in January. Overall, the typical new listing was on the market for a median of just 7 days before it sold and the benchmark condo price increased marginally from December to $812,400. This is all characteristic of a very strong buyer’s market.




FEBRUARY - APARTMENTS /CONDOS


BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE(%)


Cambie 8 $703,200 0.55 4.68

Coal Harbour 8 $1,038,800 -1.37 -4.3

Downtown VW 71 $744,900 1.99 0.56

Dunbar 0 $741,200 4.67 7.42

Fairview VW 26 $846,300 4.87 6.91

False Creek 22 $867,000 2.91 3.63

Kerrisdale 4 $957,700 4.91 7.15

Kitsilano 27 $652,300 1.89 3

Marpole 4 $596,200 -0.56 5

Mount Pleasant VW 2 $577,900 2.12 2.12

Oakridge VW 2 $1,104,500 -0.09 3.01

Point Grey 3 $636,800 4.34 5.59

Quilchena 2 $1,195,300 5.95 6.48

S.W. Marine 1 $520,000 5.76 6.79

Shaughnessy 0 $699,900 6.11 7.88

South Cambie 0 $945,000 1.09 5.82

South Granville 2 $1,005,600 -1.26 4.54

Southlands 0 $860,700 6.16 5.61

University VW 21 $914,600 1 1.64

West End VW 31 $679,700 5.08 0.88

Yaletown 36 $925,900 5.1 9.27

Vancouver West 271 $835,800 2.88 3.04


0 – 350,000 4 0 0%

350,001 – 400,000 0 0 #DIV/0!

400,000 – 450,000 4 3 75%

450,001 – 500,000 15 1 7%

500,001 – 550,000 18 13 72%

550,001 – 600,000 36 20 56%

600,001 – 650,000 34 23 68%

650,001 – 700,000 43 18 42%

700,001 – 750,000 30 18 60%

750,001 – 800,000 37 17 46%

800,001 – 900,000 47 31 66%

900,001 – 1,000,000 49 23 47%

1,000,001 – 1,250,000 57 39 68%

1,250,001 – 1,500,000 52 30 58%

1,500,000 – 2,000,000 50 19 38%

2,000,001 + 50 16 32%

Totals 526 271 52%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENTSales-to-New- Listings Ratio

$1,150,000$1,000,000

$950,000$900,000$850,000$800,000$750,000


– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

$973,139

$790,000

$997,030

$789,500

$978,916

$785,000

$947,066

$760,000

$1,149,930

$898,000

$1,087,104

$862,000


Days

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et


21

9

21

9

21

11

21

10

33

8

16

8

Janaury 269 263 -2.2%February 377 271 -28.1%March April May June Total 646 534 -17.3%


FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n Maybe after more than 20 years in the Vancouver real estate industry, I

have become something of a fuddy-duddy, but I admit I am amazed at the performance of the Westside condominium apartment market. Condos have become the first choice for a majority of home buyers. In February, 534 condo apartments sold on the Westside. This is 14 times higher than detached house sales and 11 times higher the townhouse sales. As well, the benchmark price for a condo apartment increased nearly 3% in February from a month earlier, to $835,500. In some neighbourhoods, such as the West End, Fairview and False Creek, prices were up from 4% to more than 5% from January.

n The typical new listing for a Westside condo apartment sold in a median of just 8 days in February, an extremely fast pace that has remained constant for two months. And there is action through a wide price range, of from under $600,000, with 37 sales in February, to more than $1.5 million, with 35 sales in February. The mortgage stress test was forecast to slow sales after January 1, but many buyers have pre-approved mortgages written in December and are, so far, not affected.

n Judging from the intense demand for condominium apartments, combined with new government measures that may stunt sales of other forms of housing, we expect Westside condo sales to remain strong. If you are seller, this is good time to list. If you are a buyer, prepare to be competitive.



THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: MAR 2018

MARCH - APARTMENTS /CONDOS




Cambie 8 $721,400 2.6 5.92

Coal Harbour 21 $1,078,200 3.8 -1.13

Downtown VW 67 $737,500 -0.99 2.6

Dunbar 1 $731,500 -1.3 7.72

Fairview VW 23 $844,000 -0.27 5.41

False Creek 35 $875,400 0.97 4.45

Kerrisdale 7 $949,900 -0.82 9.38

Kitsilano 33 $670,700 2.83 5.87

Marpole 4 $611,000 2.48 5.93


Oakridge VW 4 $1,131,000 2.4 5.65

Point Grey 1 $636,000 -0.12 8.16

Quilchena 2 $1,178,500 -1.4 7.67

S.W. Marine 3 $511,500 -1.63 7.44

Shaughnessy 0 $716,500 2.37 13.58

South Cambie 0 $973,600 3.02 7.96

South Granville 2 $1,035,000 2.92 5.64

Southlands 1 $866,200 0.64 9.89

University VW 31 $938,400 2.6 4.96

West End VW 37 $714,300 5.09 5.05

Yaletown 48 $926,600 0.08 7.91

Combined Total 331 $844,700 1.07 4.66


0 – 350,000 2 4 200%

350,001 – 400,000 0 0 0%

400,000 – 450,000 5 2 40%

450,001 – 500,000 12 4 33%

500,001 – 550,000 16 9 56%

550,001 – 600,000 40 25 63%

600,001 – 650,000 35 36 103%

650,001 – 700,000 51 23 45%

700,001 – 750,000 31 34 110%

750,001 – 800,000 43 30 70%

800,001 – 900,000 63 38 60%

900,001 – 1,000,000 46 30 65%

1,000,001 – 1,250,000 47 34 72%

1,250,001 – 1,500,000 51 25 49%

1,500,000 – 2,000,000 63 22 35%

2,000,001 + 55 15 27%

Totals 560 331 59%


THE REAL WESTSIDE RESULTS: MAR 2018

Sales-to-New- Listings Ratio

$1,300,000$1,200,000$1,100,000$1,000,000

$900,000$800,000$700,000


– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

$997,030

$789,500

$978,916

$785,000

$947,066

$760,000

$1,146,453

$894,000

$1,090,289

$862,000

$1,018,747

$800,000


Days

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et


21

9

21

11

19

1033

8

16

8

18

8

Janaury 269 266 -1.1%February 377 307 -18.6%March 441 331 -24.9%April May June Total 1,087 904 -16.8%


FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n Even the ultra active Westside condominium apartment market slowed its

pace in March, though it remained quite busy. Sales were down nearly 25% from a year earlier, but the typical new listing sold within a median of 8 days and, based on the 331 sales, an average of more than 10 condos sold every day, seven days a week, during March.

n Condominium apartment prices varied widely in March, arcing from a low of $511,500 in the S.W Marine area to $1.17 million in Quilchena. Overall, the Westside benchmark condo apartment price is now $844,700, up 1% from February and 4.6% higher than three months earlier. Despite the slower sales, we are still seeing multiple offers on prime listings, indicating robust demand continues.

n March condo buyers were apparently not deterred by prices and seemed more focused on popular neighbourhoods. Yaltetown posted 48 sales at a benchmark price of $936,600; while the West End had 37 sales at $714,300 and 21 buyers purchased a condo in exclusive Coal Harbour at a benchmark price above $1 million. The most active neighbourhood was the Downtown, with 67 condo sales at a benchmark of $737,500. There is a large and growing selection of condos on the Westside market, with 560 new listings in March, the highest level in six months, and a rush of new product now starting to pre-sell. Buyers would be wise to work with an experienced Westside real estate agent who can guide them through the inventory to that perfect condo apartment.


Q1 - APARTMENTS /CONDOS

THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: Q1 2018




Cambie 28 $721,400 5.92 20.06

Coal Harbour 42 $1,078,200 -1.13 19.45

Downtown VW 198 $737,500 2.6 20.9

Dunbar 3 $731,500 7.72 20.96

Fairview VW 66 $844,000 5.41 20.98

False Creek 85 $875,400 4.45 13.1

Kerrisdale 12 $949,900 9.38 23.82

Kitsilano 80 $670,700 5.87 21.14

Marpole 22 $611,000 5.93 21.02


Oakridge VW 11 $1,131,000 5.65 14.33

Point Grey 7 $636,000 8.16 23.36

Quilchena 7 $1,178,500 7.67 21.19

S.W. Marine 7 $511,500 7.44 22.84

Shaughnessy 0 $716,500 13.58 23.01

South Cambie 1 $973,600 7.96 20.53

South Granville 7 $1,035,000 5.64 20.2

Southlands 1 $866,200 9.89 22.92

University VW 89 $938,400 4.96 18.07

West End VW 100 $714,300 5.05 22.19

Yaletown 132 $926,600 7.91 24.01

Combined Total 904 $844,700 4.66 20.59


THE REAL WESTSIDE RESULTS: Q1 2018

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND$1,200,000$1,100,000$1,000,000

$900,000 $800,000 $700,000$600,000

$858,459

$703,000

$980,028

$765,000

$961,735

$783,000

$980,735

$789,500

$1,080,620

$849,400

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 – Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND60

50

40

30

20

10

0


0 – 350,000 8 6 75%

350,001 – 400,000 1 1 100%

400,000 – 450,000 14 9 64%

450,001 – 500,000 35 9 26%

500,001 – 550,000 43 31 72%

550,001 – 600,000 98 65 66%

600,001 – 650,000 96 83 86%

650,001 – 700,000 131 57 44%

700,001 – 750,000 91 76 84%

750,001 – 800,000 104 69 66%

800,001 – 900,000 147 97 66%

900,001 – 1,000,000 134 76 57%

1,000,001 – 1,250,000 165 121 73%

1,250,001 – 1,500,000 147 89 61%

1,500,000 – 2,000,000 164 64 39%

2,000,001 + 178 51 29%

Totals 1,556 904 58%

24

10

19

8

21

10

21

10

20

8

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 – Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

Days

Sales-to-New- Listings Ratio


Q1

Q2

Q3


20171087

1087

2018904

904

Change (%)

-16.8%

-16.8%

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS:n More than 900 condominium apartments have sold on the Westside

since New Years Day, a performance that bodes well for the rest of the year. If 10 condos can sell every day during the headwinds the market faced in Q1, the rest of the spring should be clear sailing. While there was buyer activity in nearly every Westside neighbourhood it was the downtown areas that shone in Q1. There were nearly 200 sales in the Downtown core, another 132 in Yaletown and 100 in the West End, where the benchmark price increased 5% from Q4 2017 to $714,300.

n Across the Westside, the benchmark condo apartment price in Q1 was $844,700, which was 4.6% higher than three months earlier and 20.5% higher than in Q1 2017. Some neighbourhoods saw even higher price spikes: Kerrisdale was up 9.3% from Q4 2017, to $949,900; and Dunbar, Point Grey and Southlands all saw increases of from 7.7% to 9.8% in the same period. Multiple offers are not uncommon.

n In Q1, starts of multi-family units – the majority of them condos – in Vancouver reached 1,592 units, double the level at the same time in 2017. But, based on what developers have been paying for residential land in the past year, you can expect new condo prices to average $1,600 per square foot, even higher in many cases. One new downtown condo tower on Alberni Street is pre-selling at $2,500 per square foot. As a comparison, the average Westside resale condo price is around $1,100 per square foot.

TO GET STARTED...First, visit FaithWilsonGroup.com for extensive details about: Vancouver area neighbourhoods from dog parks to home pricing by property type; our 360 degree Performance Promise; our exclusive monthly Market Update research publications; our awards & achievements and much, much more.Then, call me at 604-224-5277 or 1-855-760-6886, or email me at [email protected]

So you have decided to buy your next dream home?

HAS THE PLANthat will find and secure the home that best meets your needs backed by their specialized market knowledge, their bank of prospective sellers, their leading edge search technology and their experience at writing offers to promote & protect you!

HAS THE TEAMthat will focus on listening to and helping you define your needs & wants in context of TODAY’s market; that has the expertise and successful experience to structure offers that promote & protect YOU!

IS COMMITTEDto you being totally informed such that you will make your buying decision with complete peace of mind! Witness our unique neighbourhood profiles at FaithWilsonGroup.com.

DELIVERSa proven track record of negotiation expertise and successful transactions, in a wide spectrum of property types across the Lower Mainland, along with a benchmark level of overall client satisfaction.

To find the best home for your needs at the price you deservewhat you need is a Realtor® who:

AND BOTTOM LINEBUYERS, YOUR SATISFACTION IS GUARANTEED

NOT HAPPY with your new home within the first 18 months? Then, we will relist it, resell it and not charge you our commission!

*Some conditions apply

JAN, FEB, MAR & Q1 2018 - Faith Wilson Group · If your mortgage is pre-approved with your rate...

Documents

Transcript of JAN, FEB, MAR & Q1 2018 - Faith Wilson Group · If your mortgage is pre-approved with your rate...