Jakarta Condo 3q14

download Jakarta Condo 3q14

of 2

Transcript of Jakarta Condo 3q14

  • 8/10/2019 Jakarta Condo 3q14

    1/2

    ECONOMY

    Third quarter GDP

    growth was in line with

    Bank Indonesias full year

    growth projections,

    reaching the lower end of the

    forecast of 5.1% - 5.5% range.

    The stock market composite index increased 7.4% during the

    quarter, closing at 5,225 on September 22nd. On the currency

    side, the US Dollar experienced a depreciation by 0.23 to Rp.12,003 per US$ 1.00, whilst inflation for the first 9 months

    reached 3.42%, with rising food prices being the largest

    contributor to this.

    CONDOMINIUM MARKET REVIEW

    Both sales and pre-sales activities remained strong

    during the third quarter of 2014.Current political condition

    has not affected the overall Greater Jakarta condominium market.

    Middle segment condominiums continued dominating the existing

    and proposed supplies, and contributed about 51.1% of the total

    sales. During July to September, around 12,066 units of new

    condominiums were launched to the market.

    Sales rate of existing condominiums in the Greater

    Jakarta area reached 97.6% in the third quarter of 2014,

    relatively stable from the previous quarter and increased

    by 1.0% year-on-year.The occupancy rate was recorded at

    63.1%, which went up by 1.6% from that in the preceding quarter.

    During the review quarter, the pre-sales rate of proposed

    condominium projects was 68.8%, rising by 4.9% from that in the

    last quarter and significantly 9.8% year-on-year, leaving about

    47,749 units of future stock to be absorbed.

    Middle segment projects dominated the pre-sales

    activities, and stood at 37.5% of the total transactions.Interms of method of payment, one to three year cash instalment,

    bank mortgage, and cash are equally used in middle-class projects

    and above, whilst buyers of lower-middle class projects preferred

    mortgage payment.

    In terms of pre-sales rate by segment, the pre-sales rates

    of lower-middle, middle, upper-middle, and upper

    segment condominiums were recorded at 62.9%, 74.1%,

    70.5%, and 70.6%, respectively. As of the third quarter, 60%

    of buyers were investors, indicating the strong investment

    sentiment on property.

    The sales rate of low-cost condominiums climbed by about 1.1%from 96.6% in the previous quarter and 1.2% over the preceding

    years figure, with an occupancy rate of 65.0%. The pre-sales rate

    of this condominium segment stood at 75.6%, decreasing 1.7%

    quarter-on-quarter.

    Total cumulative supply of Jakarta condominiums in

    September 2014 stood at 132,472 units, increasing by

    4.4% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year,

    following the completion of 11 projects during the review

    quarter. During the same period, 25 new projects were

    launched. These projects brought the total proposed

    condominium supply in Greater Jakarta to about 153,273 units.

    The newly launched projects during the review quarter weredominated by lower-middle segment condominiums (61.8%),

    followed by middle (19.7%), upper-middle (13.9%) and upper

    (4.6%).

    A total of 301 proposed projects were offered to the market as

    of third quarter of 2014. The lower-middle segment

    condominiums led the proposed supply in Jakarta with a share of

    38.3% or approximately 58,672 units, followed by middle (34.9%),

    upper (13.8%), and upper-middle segment (13.0%), respectively.

    In terms of location, the majority of existing projects

    were concentrated in the secondary area, holding about

    72.6% of the total supply or 96,140 units, whilst the CBD

    held about 19.5% and prime district of about 7.9%,

    respectively.The secondary area also became the location for

    almost all of the future projects, holding about 92.0% of the total

    supply, whereas prime and CBD areas represented 4.2% and 3.8%

    of the supply, respectively.

    Most of the existing projects were located in South Jakarta

    (29.6% of the total projects), followed by North Jakarta with

    21.6%. However, majority of the proposed projects will be in

    Tangerang (25.1%), followed by Bekasi (14.8%).

    The condominium price trend continued to increase,

    along with the growth of land prices.As of September 2014,

    the average price of condominiums in the CBD area wasRp39,600,000 per square meter (/sq.m.), a significant increase of

    35.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the average price in the prime

    area was Rp35,400,000/sq.m., a growth of 28.3% compared to the

    third quarter of 2013.

    OUTLOOKAs demand for condominium future supply continues to be high,

    many new condominium projects are still expected to be

    launched towards the end of this year. Lower-middle and middle

    segment condominium projects with huge number of units are

    projected to be the most coveted, in response to the large

    potential of these segments.

    Q3 2014AKARTA, INDONESIA

    CONDOMINIUM SNAPSHOTMARKETBEAT

    A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

  • 8/10/2019 Jakarta Condo 3q14

    2/2

    PT Cushman and Wakefield Indonesia

    Indonesia Stock Exchange Building

    Tw.2, 15/F, Jakarta, Indonesia

    (+62) 21 2550 9500

    www.cushmanwakefield.com

    For more information, contact:

    Arief Rahardjo

    Senior Associate Director,

    Head of Research & Advisory

    (+62) 21 2550 9500

    [email protected]

    This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield China for use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for

    information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report

    uses information obtained from public sources which Cushman & Wakefield China believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such

    information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to

    the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield China shall not be liable to any

    reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. Our prior written

    consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part. Should you not wish to receive information from

    Cushman & Wakefield China or any related company, please email [email protected] with your details in the body of your email

    as they appear on this communication and head it Unsubscribe. 2014 Cushman & Wakefield China All rights reserved.

    ECONOMIC INDICATORS

    INDONESIA 2012 2013 2014F

    DP Growth 6.3% 5.5 - 5.9% 5.15.5%

    Inflation Rate 4.5% 9.8% 3.5% - 5.5%

    Central Bank-Rate 5.75% 7.5% 5.5%

    Source: Government data (Statistic Bureau, Central Bank of Indonesia, Mi nistry of Finance)

    NEWLY COMPLETED PROJECTS

    PROJECT SEGMENT APPROX

    UNITS

    Margonda Residence 4 Lower-Middle 399

    Sentra Timur Residence (T. Ruby) Lower-Middle 391

    Tifolia Apartment (Pulomas Park Center) Middle 1,260

    d'Green Pramuka Residence (T. Bougenville) Lower-Middle 1,035

    Scientia Residence (T. C & D) Middle 522

    Serpong Greenview (T. Beechwood) Lower-Middle 662

    The Aspen Residences (Tower A) Middle 207

    Sky Terrace (T. Pecatu & Uluwatu) Middle 342

    Sky Terrace (T. Sanur) Middle 162Bogor Valley (T. Raffles) Lower-Middle 627

    Sunter Icon (T. Emerald) Middle 378

    NEWLY LAUNCHED PROJECTS

    PROJECT SEGMENT APPROX

    UNITS*

    Margonda Residences 6 Middle 504

    Bassura City (T. Heliconia) Lower-Middle 975

    Bintaro Icon (T. Calluna) Middle 247

    Ciputra International (T. Amsterdam) Upper-Middle 412

    Kota Ayodhya (T. Indigo) Lower-Middle 828

    SpringLake Summarecon Bekasi (T. Davallia) Lower-Middle 778

    Grand Kamala Lagoon (T. North Emerald) Lower-Middle 812

    Grand Kamala Lagoon (T. South Emerald) Middle 464

    Citra Lake Suites (T. Oakwood) Middle 126

    Hillcrest House (Millenium Village) Upper-Middle 384

    Jewalk Upper-Middle 220

    Tazzaland Apartment Middle 700

    Thamrin District Residence Lower-Middle 1,302

    La Foret Vivante Upper 253

    Grand Dhika Mansion Pejaten Upper-Middle 44

    Urban Heights (Tower L) Lower-Middle 669

    Apartment Menara Cibinong (T. C & D) Lower-Middle 483The Kensington Royal Suites (T. Addington) Upper-Middle 137

    The Kensington Royal Suites (T. Belmont) Upper-Middle 117

    The Kensington Royal Suites (T. Clifford) Upper-Middle 199

    Sentul Garden Apartment Lower-Middle 915

    La Vie Upper 300

    Core Residence Lower-Middle 700

    Selatan 8 (T. Sultan) Middle 336

    Horison Blok M Upper-Middle 161*) Total units are approximate numbers and may change over the construction period.

    Based on sales price, the Jakarta Condominium market is further classified into 4 (four) price segments (prices are

    estimated average hard-cash price term, before tax, on semi gross area):

    - Upper : > Rp.30mio per sm - Upper-middle : Rp.20mio per sm to 30mio per sm

    - Middle : Rp.12mio per sm to 20mio per sm - Lower-Middle : < Rp.12 million per sm

    SUPPLY, DEMAND, SALES RATE

    CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE

    LOCAL CURRENCY (RP/SQM)

    LOCATION Q313 Q214 Q314 EURO/SQMUS$/

    SQFT

    12-MONTH

    OUTLOOK

    CBD Area 29.2Mio 37.6Mio 39.6Mio 2,259 306

    Prime Area 27.6Mio 33.3Mio 35.4Mio 2,289 274

    DEFINITIONS:

    CBD area includes the most prominent business corridors such a s, Sudirman, Kuningan, Thamrin, Gatot Subroto, a nd

    Satrio. Prime residential area includes Kebayoran Baru, Senayan, Menteng, Pondok Indah, Permata Hijau, and Kemang,

    mostly representing areas that are favoured by high-income families and expatriates.

    EXISTING SUPPLY BY DISTRICT

    68,5

    14

    74,1

    87

    77,6

    25

    85,7

    13

    105,7

    93

    119,4

    35

    132,4

    72

    64,5

    84

    69,9

    96

    73,5

    95

    81,5

    82

    101,5

    65

    115,6

    92

    129,3

    07

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    70,000

    80,000

    90,000

    100,000

    110,000

    120,000

    130,000

    140,000

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q2014

    SalesR

    ate

    Un

    its

    Supply Demand Sales Rate

    South, 29.6%

    Central,16.6%

    West, 17.7%

    Nor th, 21.6%

    East, 2.7%

    Tangerang,7.4%

    Bekasi, 0.7% Depok, 3.2%