Jack Goldstone on Demographic Change and Global Futures
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Transcript of Jack Goldstone on Demographic Change and Global Futures
The New Population Boom:Demographic Change and Global Futures
Jack A. Goldstone
September 27Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations
POPULATION MEGATRENDS
1. Big emerging markets and the world economy
2. Aging and shrinking workforces in the developed countries
3. Youth and Islam: The New face of the developing world
4. An Urban, not rural, world
Where will the People Be?
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000World Population, in 000s
More Developed Na-tions
Less Developed Na-tions
Global Labor Force Growth
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Most Developed Countries
Least Developed Countries
Worker Growth vs. Elderly Growth
US Europe Japan & S. Korea
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1950-2000
2000-2050
US Europe Japan & S. Korea
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000-2050
Increase in Older Folks in the USP
opul
atio
n in
Mill
ions
1950-2000 2000-20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Workers 15-59Age 60+Age 80+
Percentage of Population under 15 years old, 2005
Red: 40+ Pink: 30-39 Light Blue: 20-29 Dark Blue: <20
The Youth Surge in the Middle East(Ages 15-29)
Egypt Tunisia Libya Yemen0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19902010
Youth 0.43 0.37 0.40 0.53Bulge
Mill
ions
2010 20400
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2777 2882
1513
2408
Serious, High, Extreme SFI
Stable states
Pop
ulat
ion
age
15-5
9 in
mill
ions
Global Labor Force and State Fragility
Muslim Growth in the World
2010 20500
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
U.S. and Europe
25 countries with largest Muslim gains
Growth in Pop 15-44 age group
1950 2010 2030 20500
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
D.R.Congo
Egypt
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Pakistan
1950 2010 2030 20500
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Brazil
China
India
Russian Federa-tion
USA
An Urban World
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 20500
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Total Rich World
Urban Rich World
Total Dev. World
Urban Dev. World
What are the Solutions?
• FLEXIBILITY– Retirement /Work/Education– Immigration and Emigration– Business start-up and innovation to find Market-based solutions
• MORE GLOBALIZATION– Open Trade and Human Exchange, New Urbanism– Have faith in European/Liberal Values– Globalization of Education!
What are We Doing About it?
• Investing in Education? No.• Investing in Basic Research? No.• Improving Energy Grid/Efficiency? No.• Improving attraction to top migrants? No.• Pulling together, sharing sacrifice? NO, NO, NO.
• Complaining about taxes, government, regulation? YES, YES, YES.