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IV. Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change (impacts, vulnerability and adaptation) 113 4.1 Introduction Meteorological disasters have negative impacts on the population, environment, and various economic sec- tors. The magnitude of extreme meteorological events has increased and, while it is difficult to directly attri- bute this to climate change, Mexico is increasingly vul- nerable to extremes of weather and climate. The cir- cumstances of underdevelopment and inequality, both economic and social, are related to the increased vul- nerability of human and natural systems. The growth in vulnerability exacerbates the magnitude of impacts, increasing risks and the likelihood that disaster will ma- terialize. That is why it is alarming that there are pro- jections of a future climate very different from that of today, which will bring adverse impacts on both human and natural systems. Rainfall of more than 400 mm in one day, 1 produced by cold fronts or hurricanes has had serious consequenc- es, mainly for the populations of Northern and Southern Mexico. In contrast, droughts, which occur on a recurring basis, affect agriculture and limit the availability of water for urban centers, causing social unrest. These examples of extreme weather and climate conditions prompt us to reconsider the way in which, up to now, natural re- 1 The national annual average rainfall in the period 1941-2008 was 776.4 mm (SMN 2009). sources have been managed and development strategies followed. Temperature trends in Mexico (see section 1.1.3 of Chapter I) are consistent with those published at the global scale by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007). Increases in temperature, an ex- treme hydrological cycle and rising sea levels are already detectable in various parts of the territory. Although it remains to be confirmed whether these are signs of glob- al warming, there is no doubt we are moving towards a new climatic condition, which urges to define adaptation strategies, at local, regional and national level, that con- sider climatic variability 2 and climate change. 3 Adaptation measures, as part of risk management in the struggle against climate change, are a component of the development scheme that every nation must consid- er. In Mexico, work is being done to identify the poten- tial impacts of global warming, to generate adaptive ca- pacities among key stakeholders and institutions, and to define mechanisms to implement actions of vulnerability reduction. Governmental efforts, together with those of 2 Climate variability refers to variations in the mean climate state and other statistical data (such as standard deviations, the occur- rence of extreme events, etc.) regarding the climate at all temporal and spatial scales, beyond certain meteorological events. 3 A change of climate attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to the natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

Transcript of iv. Programs containing measures of adaptation to …of adaptation to climate change (impacts,...

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iv. Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change (impacts, vulnerability and adaptation)

113

4.1 introduction

Meteorological disasters have negative impacts on the population, environment, and various economic sec-tors. The magnitude of extreme meteorological events has increased and, while it is difficult to directly attri-bute this to climate change, Mexico is increasingly vul-nerable to extremes of weather and climate. The cir-cumstances of underdevelopment and inequality, both economic and social, are related to the increased vul-nerability of human and natural systems. The growth in vulnerability exacerbates the magnitude of impacts, increasing risks and the likelihood that disaster will ma-terialize. That is why it is alarming that there are pro-jections of a future climate very different from that of today, which will bring adverse impacts on both human and natural systems.

Rainfall of more than 400 mm in one day,1 produced by cold fronts or hurricanes has had serious consequenc-es, mainly for the populations of Northern and Southern Mexico. In contrast, droughts, which occur on a recurring basis, affect agriculture and limit the availability of water for urban centers, causing social unrest. These examples of extreme weather and climate conditions prompt us to reconsider the way in which, up to now, natural re-

1 The national annual average rainfall in the period 1941-2008 was 776.4 mm (SMN 2009).

sources have been managed and development strategies followed.

Temperature trends in Mexico (see section 1.1.3 of Chapter I) are consistent with those published at the global scale by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007). Increases in temperature, an ex-treme hydrological cycle and rising sea levels are already detectable in various parts of the territory. Although it remains to be confirmed whether these are signs of glob-al warming, there is no doubt we are moving towards a new climatic condition, which urges to define adaptation strategies, at local, regional and national level, that con-sider climatic variability2 and climate change.3

Adaptation measures, as part of risk management in the struggle against climate change, are a component of the development scheme that every nation must consid-er. In Mexico, work is being done to identify the poten-tial impacts of global warming, to generate adaptive ca-pacities among key stakeholders and institutions, and to define mechanisms to implement actions of vulnerability reduction. Governmental efforts, together with those of

2 Climate variability refers to variations in the mean climate state and other statistical data (such as standard deviations, the occur-rence of extreme events, etc.) regarding the climate at all temporal and spatial scales, beyond certain meteorological events.3 A change of climate attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to the natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

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academics and society, are aimed at planned, participa-tory and flexible adaptation.

This chapter presents the main actions of Mexico re-lated to adaptation and analyzes the studies conducted after the Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Tercera Comnicación Nacional ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático/ INE 2006a), concerning the diagnosis of im-pacts and vulnerability to extreme climatic conditions. From these studies, adaptation measures are proposed in order to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on sectors and systems such as water, agriculture, biodi-versity, health, and energy, among others; the objective of these measures is to build capacities for adaptation.

4.2 main adaptation actions considered in national and sectoral programs in mexico

Adaptation constitutes a profound challenge for pub-lic policy, since reducing the vulnerability of people and their property, and of infrastructure and ecosystems, requires acting in the long term, and transcending the temporality of policies and programs. It is therefore im-portant to review and strengthen the planning system in order to look decades ahead, to transcend short-term re-active measures, and to be able to guide the spatial evo-lution of the economy and of human settlement and in-frastructure. The adaptation process must also consider the additional benefits that may arise from new climatic conditions, through the introduction of sustainable tech-nologies and business opportunities (Special Climate Change Program/ Programa Especial de Cambio Climáti-co, PECC, 2009).

4.2.1 Actions of the Federal Public Administration

The National Development Plan (Plan Nacional de Desa-rollo, Pnd) 2007-2012 is the basic planning instrument of the Federal Government with a scope of six years. The

PND gives rise to sectoral, institutional, regional and spe-cial programs, in which the objectives, goals, strategies and policies to be implemented over the six-year period are specified.

The fourth public policy central theme of the PND, environmental sustainability, specifically in the environ-mental section, states in objective 11 that the promo-tion of measures for adaptation to the impacts of cli-mate change is a priority for development planning in the country. To this end, four strategies are presented: a) to design and develop national capacities for ad-aptation, b) to develop regional climate scenarios for Mexico; c) to assess the impacts, vulnerability and ad-aptation to climate change in different socio-economic sectors and ecological systems, and d) to promote the dissemination of information regarding impacts, vulner-ability and measures of adaptation to climate change in different socio-economic sectors and ecological systems.

In order to contribute to achieve the goals in rela-tion to mitigating the negative impacts of climate change and adapting to the adverse effects thereof, the Interministerial Commission on Climate Change (Comisión Intersecretarial de Cambio Climático, iCCC) (see Chapter III on institutional arrangements) has devel-oped the National Strategy on Climate Change (Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático, enaCC), presented by the President of Mexico in May 2007. The ENACC pro-poses lines of action regarding reduction of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and stresses that adap-tive design against this phenomenon includes the instal-lation of some basic capacities in different areas to allow reaction to emergency situations and form an initial basis for the development of strategies and actions of adapta-tion with a preventive approach (CiCC 2007).

The ICCC, through the Working Group on Adaptation Policies and Strategies (Grupo de Trabajo sobre Políticas y Estrategias de Adaptación, gt-adaPt), coordinated by the National Institute of Ecology (Instituto Nacional de Ecología, ine) of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Semarnat) identified, along with several units of the Federal Public Administration

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(Administración Pública Federal, aPF), actions of ad-aptation to the major foreseeable impacts of climate change, which constitute an input in the development of the chapter on adaptation of the Special Climate Change Program (Programa Especial de Cambio Climático, PeCC ) 2009-2012.

The PECC points out that Mexico gives equal weight to the tasks of adaptation to climate change and those of mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regarding adaptation, the PECC presents public policies to address seven human and natural systems, and one that focuses on risk management. In short, 37 objec-tives and 142 goals of adaptation are proposed. In the same program, key elements of policies and transversal actions concerning climate change are presented, which accompany efforts of mitigation of GHG emissions and adaptation, such as foreign policy; institutional strength-ening; economics of climate change; education, training, information and communication; and research and tech-nological development activities.

The vision of the PECC, regarding the adaptation and development of strategic capabilities up to 2050, con-siders three main stages (PeCC 2009):

1. Stage of assessment of vulnerability and economic evaluation of priority measures. In the period 2009-2012, its main product will be the design of a com-prehensive system of adaptation.

2. Stage of strengthening national, regional and sec-toral strategic capacities of adaptation, from 2013 to 2030.

3. Stage of consolidating the capacities construct-ed. Between 2031 and 2050, this will lead to the achievement of the long-term goals of adaptation.

In the 2007-2012 PND, climate change is recog-nized as an environmental and developmental problem, such that some of the State Ministries, with support from the GT-ADAPT, have integrated considerations of adaptation and climate change scenarios into their work schedules and sectoral programs for 2007-2012. The following sections briefly describe the main programs and, where appropriate, the concrete actions that several

government institutions have conducted in terms of ad-aptation. The information comes from the 2007-2012 sectoral programs, or was provided by agencies of the Federal Executive.

4.2.2 Environment and Natural Resources Sectoral Program 2007-2012

The Environment and Natural Resources Sectoral Pro-gram (Programa Sectorial de Medio Ambiente y Recur-sos Naturales, PSmayrn) 2007-2012 has environmen-tal sustainability, one of the five areas of the PND, as a framework of reference. The PSMAyRN has three main objectives: a) to implement the ENACC; b) to recognize the vulnerability of different social sectors to climate change, and initiate projects for the development of na-tional and local capacities of adaptation; and c) to reduce the risks of hydrometeorological phenomena and to ad-dress their effects.

As part of the agenda of transversality in public pol-icy established by SEMARNAT with other agencies of the APF, the main objective is stated to be the promo-tion of actions to encourage, in a balanced manner, both mitigation of GHG emissions and adaptation to climate change. Some of the proposed sectoral actions concern-ing adaptation are: a) promotion of the Territorial and Ecological Legislation as a preventive instrument against the foreseeable impacts of climate change; b) supporting the development of the Atlas of Risk for different lev-els of decision making and enabling its implementation; and c) consideration of a 40 cm mean sea level rise as a baseline for the planning and construction of coastal infrastructure.

Moreover, the National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas, ConanP), a delegated agency of SEMARNAT, is responsible for the Administration of Protected Natural Areas (Áreas Naturales Protegidas anP). There are currently 171 ANP representing more than 12% of the national territory, and between 2007 and 2009 the area under the regime of federal protection increased by approximately 8.2%. As well

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as being havens for biodiversity, the ANP are highly important carbon sinks. The selection and decree of new areas can mean a significant boost to the stabil-ity and maintenance of soil and biomass carbon, and to the maintenance of ecosystem services. See sec-tion 5.4.2 for more details of the actions carried out by CONANP.

National Water Program 2007-2012

This program sets out the actions to be taken by the Nation-

al Water Commission (Comisión Nacional del Agua, Cona-

gua) regarding adaptation to climate change. Some of its objectives are: a) to reduce the risks associated with meteorological and hydrometeorological extremes and address their impacts; and b) to assess the effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Some of the most important actions carried out by CONAGUA in the period 2007-2009 were:

Developing software to automatically identify statis-•tics of extreme events in terms of temperatures and rainfall. Capturing the available climate information in the cli-•matological archive of the National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN). Generating concepts of the climate in Mexico. • Finalizing the experimentation and running a meso-•scale meteorological prognostic model to generate climate change scenarios, based on the six-hour out-puts of a general circulation model. Conducting research on “Methodology for the ho-•mogeneous reconstruction of the climate of Mexico in the twentieth century” and "Methodology more contiguous to Mexico for the reconstruction of the variable of evapotranspiration.”

National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity

The National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Comisión Nacional para el Conocimien-to y Uso de la Biodiversidad, Conabio) initiated a

monitoring program of two priority ecosystems (man-groves and montane cloud forests), in order to generate reliable information for decision making related to their conservation and use of biodiversity and to document the changes occurring in the ecosystems of our coun-try. As part of the program, during 2008 and 2009 CONABIO, in collaboration with the Naval Ministry (Secretaría de Marina, SEMAR), various institutions of the environmental sector and with the participation of Mexican academic institutions, generated a map of the mangroves of Mexico at a scale of 1:50,000 using re-mote sensing techniques.

Biological corridors are without doubt key elements for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. Due to its relevance, regional comprehensiveness and bal-ance of conservation of biodiversity with sustainable use and management, the Mexico-Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (Corredor Biológico Mesoamericano-México) is one of the most innovative and important environmental projects in the world. The Federal Government gives pri-ority to this region in the framework of actions of South-South cooperation of the PND, and in line with efforts to meet the challenges posed by an increasingly globalized world economy.

As part of the process of producing the State Studies of Biodiversity (Estudios Estatales de Biodiversidad), efforts are underway to build awareness about cli-mate change impacts on biodiversity in the States of Chihuahua, Jalisco, Colima, Guanajuato, Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Yucatán, Campeche and Quintana Roo. On the other hand, in the development of the Biodiversity Strategies (Estrategias de Biodiversidad) of Michoacán (published in 2007) and Aguascalientes (in preparation), strategies have been included that en-compass actions of mitigation of GHG emissions, and adaptation to climate change, that enhace biodiversity conservation.

The most recent CONABIO publication, which in-cludes information on climate change and biodiversity, is the study “Natural Capital of Mexico” (“Capital Natural de México”) (see Section 6.4.5).

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4.2.3 Agriculture and Fisheries Development Sectoral Program 2007-2012

This program recognizes the priority of the agrifood in-dustry to undertake various actions regarding the effects of climate change in order to address the problem in a comprehensive manner.

Since agriculture is the main user of water in the coun-try, one of the most important actions is the rational use and conservation of water. The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentación, SagarPa) supports investment for automation of irrigation, promotes projects with in-tegrated conservation works and practices, fosters the sustainable use of water and, together with CONAGUA, carries out various efforts to reduce the consumption of this resource.

As an adaptation strategy of the sector, a protected form of agriculture is promoted, i.e., one conducted in structures built in order to better control temperature, water and plant nutrition.

In the livestock production sector, the establishment of a framework has been initiated for research on the topic of vulnerability to climate change and restructuring of the National Commission of Animal Genetic Resources for improved conservation, use and management of live-stock genetic resources. In order to strengthen the mea-sures of adaptation in the aquaculture and fisheries sec-tor, the regulation of 100% of strategic fishery resources is promoted through 20 fisheries management programs and five regional guideline programs.

To support actions of adaptation in the forestry, agriculture and livestock sector, the National Research Institute for Forestry, Agriculture and Livestock (Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias, iniFaP), has produced three maps of the pro-ductive potential of agricultural crops (maize, beans and barley) for the south-southeast region of the country, under different scenarios of climate change. Similar maps detailing other regions of the country are expected to be completed in 2010.

Climatological Contingencies Attention Program (Programa de Atención a Contingencias Climatológicas, PACC)

This program, known previously as the Fund for Assisting Rural Populations Affected by Climatological Contingen-cies (Fondo para Atender a la Población Rural Afectada por Contingencias Climatológicas, FaPraCC) and the aim of which is to protect agricultural, livestock and fish-ery producers, has evolved into the use of agricultural and livestock catastrophe insurance schemes in order to transfer the risk of extreme weather phenomena to specialist financial agents. This has led to the insuring of production zones that previously had no access to such schemes. Similarly, work is being done in the modeling of insurance for apiculture, aquaculture and fisheries. In 2009, 6.6 million ha were insured in 31 states, protect-ing 2.7 million low-income producers and insuring 4.1 million animal units in 19 states, which protect a total of 690,000 producers and 54.6 million ha of pastureland.

4.2.4 Interior Sectoral Program 2007-2012

This program has, as one of its sectoral objectives, the strengthening of prevention and timely giving of atten-tion to the contingency situations facing the country; it serves to foster the measures of adaptation to climate change effects as indicated by the PND.

The Ministry of the Interior, through the actions un-dertaken in the framework of the National System of Civil Protection (Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil, SinaProC), reinforces the integrated development of the country by ensuring the integrity of both institutions and citizens in the event of disaster or emergency.

Among the instruments of SINAPROC with which to address disasters, is the Natural Disaster Fund (Fondo de Desastres Naturales, Fonden), which aims to support the tackling of disasters the magnitude of which exceeds the organizational and financial capacity of the states and the parastatal agencies.

It also includes actions to reduce vulnerability and risk in the face of natural phenomena by the Natural

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Disaster Prevention Fund (Fondo para la Prevención de Desastres Naturales, FoPreden), which is intended to provide resources to agencies of the APF and the states, in order to enable actions and development of mecha-nisms to reduce risks, and to prevent or reduce the ef-fects of the destructive impact of natural phenomena on the life and property of the population, public services and the environment. This allows the fostering of links between the actions of adaptation to climate change and those of reduction of meteorological risk.

SINAPROC has several early warning systems of var-ious weather phenomena in the country. One of the first to be established is the Early Warning System for Tropical Cyclones (Sistema de Alerta Temprana de Ciclones Tropicales, Siat-Ct) which, since 1999, have allowed the anticipation of measures to address the emergencies of extreme events, thus reducing the number of deaths from hurricanes. Hydrometeorological Warning Systems have also been developed for cities such as Acapulco, Guerrero; Tijuana, Baja California; Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chiapas and Monterrey, Nuevo León. The implementa-tion of a new alert system for winter phenomena is cur-rently under consideration.

National Civil Protection Program 2008-2012

This program promotes the development and opera-tion of civil protection programs of the states, munici-palities, the political delegations of the Federal District (Mexico City) and the internal civil protection units of the APF, as well as the participation of programs of vol-unteer groups, productive sectors, communities and the general population.

It is stated in the program that disaster prevention can be achieved through comprehensive risk manage-ment and it is recognized that climate change could ex-acerbate and increase the factors of natural and social risk, which makes a new approach imperative to the risks associated with national security.

4.2.5 Social Development Sectoral Program 2007-2012

In order to increase national capacities for adaptation in the country, the Ministry of Social Development (Sec-retaría de Desarrollo Social, SedeSoL) has established various actions at both federal and state level, chief among which are:

1. Land use planning. In 2007, SEDESOL prepared the “Methodological Guide for the Production of Territorial Development Strategies in the States” and the “Methodological Guide for the Preparation of Municipal Land Use Planning Programs.” Both contain specific guidelines to be considered criteria for adaptation to climate change in these strategies. During 2007 and 2008, eight municipal land man-agement programs were completed and was pro-duced the Territorial Development Strategy for the State of Campeche.

2. Risk prevention. As part of the efforts to promote the incorporation of criteria for disaster prevention and measures of risk reduction derived from the Atlas of Risks and/or Hazards in urban development plans and the regulatory framework of the municipalities, the “Manual for the incorporation of the Atlas of Hazards and Risks in the planning of urban development” was produced. The manual is being evaluated for subse-quent dissemination to ensure that urban planning in-struments are consistent with disaster prevention.

3. Metropolitan areas and cities. With this program, SEDESOL seeks to significantly reduce the levels of risk to which a significant proportion of the popula-tion are exposed, in terms of the impact of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena. For example, to maintain microclimates and reduce heat waves in ur-ban areas, SEDESOL, through the “Program for the Rescue of Public Spaces”, has promoted the improve-ment of cities of more than 50,000 inhabitants, ren-ovating 1,855 public spaces in 287 cities between 2007 and 2008.

4. Relocation of families living in risk areas. In order to create safe and livable spaces, through the Habitat

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Program, the relocation of families living in risk areas is promoted and supported; it is important to empha-size that such actions are undertaken upon request and with the participation of local governments.

5. In 2007, SEDESOL developed the Program of Urban Development of the Metropolitan Zone of La Laguna, conducted through the Mexico-ONU Habitat Cooperation Framework. This was derived from the interest and commitment of SEDESOL in reducing urban poverty and improving the living conditions and habitability of urban areas in Mexico, including protection from potential meteorological or geological risks. During 2007, the study entitled “Towards a compact, sustainable and inclusive city,” was also conducted, which formed a basic input for the updating of the Urban Development Program (Programa de Desarrollo Urbano, PDU) of Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche. In 2008, the “Methodological Guide for Urban Development Plans and Programs” was prepared, highlighting actions and directions concerning sustainability, as well as those associ-ated with climate change. Furthermore, the PDU of the Metropolitan Area of Villahermosa-Nacajuca, Tabasco, was formulated as a region-wide response to address risks of flood (which occurred in 2007 and 2008) and to consider the vulnerability of the city to this phenomenon.

6. Housing developments. Since 2006, a study was conducted to develop the “Guidelines for Equipment, Infrastructure and Environmental Linkage”. These are in a public consultation process and will take effect from 1 January 2010. They consider design specifica-tions of residential complexes and favor public trans-port, compatible mixed uses which encourage walk-ing and the use of non-motorized mobility. In addition, they determine the need for studies to ensure that housing is not built in areas prone to geological, hydro-meteorological and physicochemical risks.

4.2.6 Health Sector Program 2007-2012

This program establishes the need to strengthen and integrate the actions of health promotion through dis-ease prevention and control. Regarding the policies and programs, Mexico has included themes related to health issues within the climate agenda. Within both the EN-ACC and PECC, commitments have been made to the evaluation of the effects of changes in climate on the health of different social groups; the strengthening of plans for public health with early warning systems; and the strengthening of surveillance and control programs for vector-borne diseases.

It is recognized that the lines of action regarding health, included in the ENACC and PECC, may be ac-companied by legislative instruments to strengthen the coordination of sectoral institutions and to achieve ef-fective implementation. With regard to the legislative agenda, the Chamber of Deputies in conjunction with others developed the program “Climate Change and National Security”, with a working group on health, in which the tasks remaining in this sector were identified and the development of initiatives was proposed to carry out studies of vulnerability and measures to adapt cli-mate change. This working group is composed, among others, by researchers of the Faculty of Medicine of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, unam), the National Institute of Public Health (Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, inSP) and the Federal Commission for Protection Against Health Risks (Comisión Federal de Protección Contra Riesgos Sanitarios, COFEPRIS).

In the health sector, work has begun to incorporate environmental variables in the monitoring and preven-tion of diseases. The website of the National Center of Epidemiological Surveillance of the Ministry of Health contains information from the National Meteorological Service, with an emphasis on extreme weather events.

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4.2.7 Energy Sector Program 2007-2012

The program seeks to promote an integrated and sus-tainable development of the country, maintaining the long-term approach that is embodied in Mexico’s Vision 2030.4 The promotion of research and technological de-velopment is specifically proposed, in relation to adapta-tion of the energy sector and raising the awareness of agencies and public sector bodies, as well as society at large, about the importance of the sector to the environ-ment and the economic development of the country.

Mexican Petroleum

As part of the Environmental Protection Strategy 2007-2012 of Mexican Petroleum (Petroleos Mexicanos, PE-MEX), a parastatal agency of the Government of Mexico, the following strategies are considered: a) integrated and sustainable water management; b) forest restoration; c) fire control; d) containment of the agricultural frontier; and e) ecological land management; all of which consider the active participation of the local community. In 2008, PEMEX reforested more than 300 ha in Alvarado, Ve-racruz; in 2007 and 2008, it channeled 29.67 million pesos for the support of ANP and sensitive areas; and in 2008, the 2007 activities on environmental education were continued in order to contribute to the conserva-tion of mangroves and wetlands.5

4.2.8 Communications and Transport Sectoral Program 2007-2012

Within its central theme of environmental sustainability, this program proposes that some of the actions to be followed should be focused on improving federal road and rail transport in order to reduce GHG emissions, as well as achieving adaptation to the impacts of climate change.

4 http:// www.vision2030.gob.mx.5 www.pemex.com, “Sustainable Development” section.

4.2.9 Naval Ministry

The activities and programs focused on prevention of, and adaptation to climate change implemented by the Naval Ministry (Secretaría de Marina, Semar) are sum-marized as follows:

• Monitoring extreme hydrometeorological phenom-ena through its Meteorological Station Network. • Monitoring sea levels through its Tide Station Network. • Monitoring the quality of seawater through the oceanographic research institutes and stations. • Studies on oceanographic and biological character-ization of the coastal zone. • Dissemination, through the SEMAR website,6 of in-formation to the general public concerning the risks of climate change, to improve their understanding of the phenomenon and capacity to respond.• Development of atmospheric and oceanographic da-tabases that contribute to the research and under-standing of climate change. • Protection and monitoring of mangrove and wetland areas. • Lectures and talks on environmental awareness and education.

4.3 diagnosis of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

4.3.1 Climate change scenarios for Mexico

To estimate the impact that climate change will have on a region, social group, economic sector or natural sys-tem, it is necessary to identify the climatic threats, their magnitude, the potential extent of affected area and the frequency with which they will occur. For this purpose, General Circulation Models (Modelos de Circulación General, mCgs) of the atmosphere were used with a

6 http:// meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/definicion.htm.

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spatial resolution of approximately 300 km x 300 km. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (iPCC), in its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), considers various MCGs to calculate a measure of the spread be-tween projections (known as “uncertainty”). This allows an estimation of the range of increases in temperature or changes in precipitation. Thus, the IPCC has presented scenarios, in terms of probabilities, based on ensembles7 of various MCGs; however, these require to be regional-ized in order to improve the evaluation of impacts at the local scale.

In a recent study, regional climate change scenarios were generated for Mexico. These had a spatial resolu-tion of 50 km x 50 km and utilized monthly data for the period 2010-2099, for some GHG emissions scenarios,8 from the downscaling of the MCG results used in the AR4. In this regionalization, a statistical method is ap-plied through the Climate Predictability Tool (CPt) of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)9 in the United States. The availability of more than 20 MCGs used by the IPCC (2007), with each one being run one or more times, and the application of the statis-tical method, allows the realization of between 50 and 90 experiments10 of climate change scenario regionaliza-

7 Ensemble: Simulations of a set of models in parallel for climate projections. Variation in the results between ensemble members gives an estimate of uncertainty.8 GHG emissions scenarios, commonly known as Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), are projections of global concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere and the corresponding radiative forcing. They consider a range of possible conditions of global development for the next 100 years and are, in a broader sense, scenarios of the state and growth of the population and the economy. There are two main scenario groups: a) Scenario “A”, describing a future world of high economic growth (high GHG emissions); and b) scenario “B”, in which such growth is moderate (low GHG emissions). A1 and B1 scenarios assume that globalization may be such that economies will converge in their development. In scenarios A2 and B2, it is consid-ered that development will occur at a regional level (Nakicenovic et al. 2000).9 http://portal.iri.columbia.edu.10 A key element in building probabilistic climate projections is the utilization of a large enough sample. To form the ensemble, the me-dian and a measure of dispersion among the experiments can be taken. Using the median ensures that the ensemble has no statisti-cal bias and corresponds to the most probable value. In recent years it has been common practice to use the spread between projections

tion for Mexico, considering different scenarios of GHG emissions (Table IV.1), which has enabled an estimation of the range of changes in temperature and precipita-tion, in the same way as that presented by the AR4 (INE 2007a).

In the same study, it was found that the scenarios obtained for Mexico are comparable in magnitude to the regional climate model, “Earth Simulator”of Japan, with a resolution of 22 km x 22 km; and comparable in spatial structure to the system “Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies” (PRECIS) of the United Kingdom, with a resolution of 50 km x 50 km.

From the regionalized climate change scenarios (tem-perature and precipitation), projections considering 30-year periods were integrated, which produced three cli-matologies: a) the 2020s (representing the period from 2010 to 2039); b) the 2050s (representing the period from 2040 to 2069), and c) the 2080s (representing the period 2070-2099).

In Mexico, research groups of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at UNAM and the Mexican Institute of Water Technology work on generating re-

as a measure of uncertainty (Meehl et al. 2007), which may be an interquartile range, or one containing 80% of the runs, leaving 20% in each tail of the distribution as extreme projections and statistical anomalies.

Table IV.1. Number of regionalization experiments

considered for Mexico in the ensemble for each scenario

of GHG emissions.

Note: COMMIT refers to the assumption of constant concentrations of GHG for the year 2000. Source: Information provided by the CCA-UNAM, 2009.

Scenario (SRES)

Number of MCGs

Number of experiments of regionalization for Mexico

A1B 18 90

A2 14 70

B1 15 70

COMMIT 12 50

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122 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

gional level climate change scenarios with dynamic and statistical models under various criteria and methodolo-gies, which has allowed an analysis of the impact of cli-mate changes in regions, sectors and social groups under various deterministic projections and in terms of prob-abilities (INE 2008a; INE 2007a & b).

Temperature scenarios

Further ahead the projection, the greater the magni-tude of the projected temperature rise. Furthermore, on consideration of higher GHG emissions, the projected increase in temperature is greater. As an example, the trends in temperature for the A2 scenario are described below, since this scenario would have the largest increas-es, perhaps surpassed only by those under the A1FI sce-nario, and is adjusted with the observed values of tem-perature.

The magnitude of the projected changes in tempera-ture varies between the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s cli-matologies aforementioned. These changes for Mexico are described below, under the A2 scenario:

In the 2020s climatology, the change in average •temperature in Mexico can vary from 0.5 ± 0.5° C in the south, to 1.3 ± 0.8° C in the northwest (Figure IV.1A), where the uncertainty reflects the dispersion between regionalization experiments. In the 2050s climatology, the projected increase is •from 1.3 ± 0.3° C in the south and 2.3 ± 1.0° C in the north (Figure IV.1B).In the 2080s climatology, the temperature increase •will be between 2.5 ± 0.3° C in the south and 3.5 ± 1.3° C in the north of the country (Figure IV.1C).

The largest temperature increases are expected in northwestern Mexico and in the Gulf of California, while the smallest changes are expected in the southeast. It can be concluded that virtually all scenarios indicate an increase in average temperature.

It can be observed that, in Southern Mexico, the pro-jected temperature increases are more likely to exceed, in the near future (2030), the ranges of interannual vari-

ability which have been experienced in recent decades. This will take longer in the north, even though the pro-jected increases are higher due to greater interannual variability (Zermeño 2008).

For the northwest region, the magnitude of project-ed changes in temperature varies between scenarios of GHG emissions. The temperature increases and the dif-ferences between scenarios are most notable from the second half of this century (Figure IV.2); e.g. for the de-cade of 2091-2100, the largest increases are observed under the A2 scenario and are in the order of 3.5° C on average, while under the B1 scenario the projected in-crease is around 2° C. There are some regionalization experiments which suggest that the increases could be as high as 4.3° C, or as low as 0.5° C, by the end of the century.

Precipitation scenarios

In the case of cumulative annual precipitation, the set of projections indicates that rainfall will decrease in much of the country towards the middle and the end of the cur-rent century. The magnitude of the negative percentage changes projected for Northwest Mexico, in the upper Gulf of California (Figure IV.3), is particularly notewor-thy. This projection matches one of the approaches of the IPCC (2007), which suggests that “where it rains a little there will be less rain, and where it rains a lot, there will be more”. The projected decreases in rainfall are low-er if one considers a scenario of low GHG emissions such as the A1B, and they even turn into projected increases in some regions under B1. In any case, changes in pre-cipitation are always less than the magnitude of interan-nual and interdecadal variability of the climate. However, even with small changes in annual average rainfall, water availability would be diminished by the expected increas-es in temperature.

The main results for variation in precipitation under the A2 scenario show that:

In the 2020s climatology, reductions in rainfall are •projected of around -5% in the north-central and south-southeastern parts of the country; and be-

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Figure IV.1. Average regional projections (50 km x 50 km) of change in mean temperature (° C) under scenario A2 for the

climatologies: A) 2020s, B) 2050s and C) 2080s, relative to the period 1970-1999.

A

B

Source: INE 2007a.

30°

25°

20°15°

-115° -110° -105° -100° -95° -90°

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Temperature change ° C

30°

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-115° -110° -105° -100° -95° -90°

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0Temperature change ° C

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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Temperature change ° C

C

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124 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

tween -5% and -10% for the central and north-western regions. In this latter region, rainfall is ex-pected to decrease by 30% by the end of the century. Conversely, there is a region in the north in which rainfall would increase by 5% (Figure IV.3A). Dispersion between the experiments is very wide, reflecting the great uncertainty in rainfall projections. A greater number of experiments indicate decreases in precipitation. • In the 2050s climatology, average rainfall reductions of around -5% are expected in the north-central and south-southeastern regions of the country; with be-tween -5% and -10% expected for the central and northwestern regions and the Yucatan Peninsula (Figure IV.3B). • In the 2080s climatology, precipitation shows a simi-lar, but more intensified, pattern of the two previous climatologies (Figure IV.3C).

Average annual rainfall could show a decline in the order of 11% for the entire country (SEMARNAT-SHCP 2009).

In general, the results show a wide variation in rainfall in terms of percentage of change. It is noteworthy that, under the A2 scenario, the northern states show a sig-nificant decline in percentage.

Under scenario A2, all monthly MCG projections in-dicate temperature increases for the period 2070-2099 in northwestern Mexico (Figure IV.4A). In terms of pre-cipitation, certain projections predict increases while others predict decreases (Figure IV.4B), reflecting the greater uncertainty in projections of rainfall with respect to temperature.

Hydrometeorological extremes

The identification of variations in the occurrence of ex-treme events such as intense storms and heatwaves

Figure IV.2. Projections of temperature rise in the northwest region of Mexico under scenarios of GHG emissions.

Note: The lines correspond to the temperature increase projected by the set of regionalized results for the MCGs in the period 1970 to 2100. The thick solid black line traces the evolution of the average annual temperature under scenario A2; that of dashes and points is under scenario A1B; that of dashes is under scenario B1, and that of points is under the scenario of a constant GHG concentration in the atmosphere which is at a similar level to that of 2000 (COMMIT). The upper and lower unbroken blue lines correspond to more intense (upper) and weaker (lower) values of change generated by an individual experiment. The bars on the right indicate the range of uncertainty (variation between experiments) in temperature associated with the various MCGs used. The solid red line corresponds to the value observed between 1970 and 1996, demonstrating that it falls among the projected values. Source: Information provided by the CCA-UNAM, 2009.

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

ºC

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2058

2061

2066

2071

2076

2081

2086

2091

2096

Year

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A1B

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COMMIT

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 125

Source: INE 2007a.

30°

25°

20°

15°

-115° -110° -105° -100° -95° -90°

-30 -20 -10 0 10

Change in precipitation (%)

Figure IV.3. Average regional projections (50 km x 50 km) of change in mean precipitation (%) under scenario A2 of GHG

emissions, for the climatologies: A) 2020s, B) 2050s and C) 2080s, relative to the period 1970-1999.

30°

25°

20º

15º

-115° -110° -105° -100° -95° -90°

-30 -20 -10 0 10

Change in precipitation (%)

A

B

C

30°

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-30 -20 -10 0 10

Change in precipitation (%)

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126 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

Figure IV.4. A) Monthly temperature anomaly (° C) and B) mean precipitation (%) of the average from various MCGs in

the period 2070-2099, under the A2 scenario, for northwestern Mexico.

Note: Results of the monthly MCGs are presented as a measure of variation in uncertainty or confidence in the projections of temperature and precipitation. The list to the right corresponds to the various MCGs used. Source: Courtesy of CCA-UNAM.

Figure IV.5. Distributional probability of daily maximum temperature at the Siquirichic station, Chihuahua, under the A1B

scenario for GHG emissions.

Note: Lines correspond to different conditions. Black: current observed; blue: projection to 2030; purple: to 2050; red: to 2080. Source: Modified from INE 2007a.

40

35

30

25

20

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10

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0

Rela

tive

freq

uenc

y (%

)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

(ºC)

A

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov DecMonth

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov DecMonth

8

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bccr_bcm2_0

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gfdl_cm2_1

giss_model_e_r

ingv_echam4

ipsl_cm4

miroc3_2_medres

miub_echo_g

mpi_echam5

ukmo_hadcm3

ukmo_hadgem1

bccr_bcm2_0

cccma_cgcm3_1

cnrm_cm3

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giss_model_e_r

ingv_echam4

ipsl_cm4

miroc3_2_medres

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mpi_echam5

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ukmo_hadgem1

ºc

ºc

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 127

Figure IV.6. Standardized Precipitation Index in: A) Central Region, B) Jalisco Region, and C) Chiapas Region under the

scenario A2, for the period 1949-2099.

Note: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for the period 1949-2099 with data of precipitation under climate change. In Figure IV.6a, b and c, the unit of 1 SPI = 49 mm/year, 53 mm/year and 45 mm/year, respectively, based on the observed data from the period 1949-1999. The gray lines indicate the standard deviation associated with the variability of MCGs used. Source: INE 2007b.

A

B

C

Variation in annual precipitation Central Region, Scenario A2

Variation in annual precipitation Jalisco Region, Scenario A2

Variation in annual precipitation Chiapas Region, Scenario A2

Year

Year

Year

Uni

ts o

f 1 S

PIU

nits

of 1

SPI

Uni

ts o

f 1 S

PI

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128 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

requires climate change scenarios of high spatial and temporal resolution. For some regionalized scenarios in Mexico, a stochastic weather generator is applied (Se-menov, 1998), adjusted for projected changes in tem-perature, to obtain projections for daily data of tempera-ture and precipitation. As in the spatial regionalization, the reduction of time scale for Mexico is comparable to that projected by some dynamic regional models to-wards the end of the century.

An example of a projection of extreme events was obtained for a site in the state of Chihuahua (Siquirichic), where it was observed that the extreme values of maxi-mum temperature could result in higher than average in-creases for each climate (Figure IV.5), due to the fact that the variance also increases. For this reason, the effects of more extreme temperatures may be experienced as heat waves. At the same site, it is expected that changes in the hydrological cycle will result from the increased in-tensity and frequency of severe storms.

Drought could intensify in three regions, defined in a recent study (ine 2007b) as the Central region, Jalisco region and Chiapas region, under the A2 scenario. The drought would be worse than those experienced in the fifties and seventies in the first two regions (Figure IV.6). In general, meteorological droughts lead to hydrological droughts,11 because in addition to reductions in precipi-tation, the increases in temperature will cause increased water loss through evapotranspiration.

The results of the Standardized Precipitation Index (Indice de Precipitación Estandarizada, iPe)12 indicate more frequent and intense drought conditions relative to the base period (1949-1999), and a sign of a reduction in mean annual rainfall. Under the A2 scenario, an IPE of under -3 could be presented, corresponding to reduc-tions in average annual precipitation, in the central re-

11 Meteorological drought is usually defined as the lack of rain (compared to “normal” or average rainfall) and length of dry period. Hydrological drought is associated with the effects of low rainfall periods and their impact on both surface and underground water bodies.12 The Standardized Precipitation Index is used in drought studies to estimate the intensity, magnitude and spatial extent of precipita-tion, which can also be extended to the humid conditions.

gion, of approximately 12%, which would be considered an extreme drought. It is noteworthy that the value of the IPE is smaller under scenarios A1B and B1, which makes it important to encourage the reduction of GHG emissions and the promotion of clean and sustainable development (ine 2007b).

The problems of drought could become widespread in the three regions analyzed in the same study, in the con-text of development where water demands will increase, especially in the Chiapas region. This region is vulnerable to dry conditions, due to some of the economic activities undertaken: livestock husbandry, agriculture and genera-tion of hydroelectricity. In contrast, when there are ex-treme rainfall conditions, whether in terms of intensity, duration or a succession of events over several days or weeks, the consequences for human activities and the environment can be serious.

4.3.2 Sea level

Rising sea levels will affect natural and human systems along the coast, due to the flooding of lowlands, saline intrusion and the increased risk of storm surges by a pos-sible change in frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events such as northerly cold fronts (“nortes”) or hurricanes, among others.

Presented below are the most relevant results of the study “Regional assessment of current and future vul-nerability of the Mexican coastal zone and deltas most affected by the increase in sea level due to global warm-ing and extreme hydrometeorological phenomena” (ine 2008b).

Historical trends

Instrumental records for eight sites on the Mexican coastline indicate a trend of increasing sea levels (Figure

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 129

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130 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

IV.7),13 which is consistent with global observations. It is particularly noteworthy that, in the Veracruz station, the rate of 1.89 mm/year (1952-2003), is similar to the global average value of 1.8 mm/year for the period 1961-2003, reported by the IPCC (2007).

Of the four monitoring sites in the Gulf of Mexico, trends are observed ranging from 1.89 mm/ year in Veracruz, Veracruz, up to 9.16 mm/ year in Ciudad Madero, Tamaulipas. For the Pacific, the lowest trend was recorded in Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, at 1.13 mm/ year, while the highest trend was at Guaymas, Sonora, with 4.23 mm/ year (Figure IV.7 and Table IV.2).

The above findings emphasize the importance of initiating a monitoring network and strengthening the measurement activities that take place at the eight sites. This can provide records to help identify areas potentially affected by an increase in sea level.

Future scenarios The analysis of potential impacts of sea level rise requires the creation of scenarios from which to consider the im-

13 The study of sea level trends is limited by the length and conti-nuity of the time series. It should be noted that recorded changes in sea level are the response to a wide variety of phenomena such as: coastal currents, meteorological events (“norte" cold fronts and hur-ricanes), oceanographic phenomena (e.g. El Niño Southern Oscilla-tion, ENSO), oceanographic conditions (platform waves, tsunamis, earth crust movements) and very probably, according to the IPCC (2007), by thermal expansion.

pact on coastal areas. According to the IPCC (2007), it is very likely that

the thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean and the loss of glacial mass has contributed to the rising sea level during the latter half of the 20th century. The IPCC also indicates a possible sea level rise of 18-59 cm by the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999.

This study presents the scenario of a sea level rise of 1 m for the Mexican coastline (Figure IV.8), and indi-cates the possible affected areas in much of the Mexican coast. Some of these would be the coasts of Campeche, Chiapas, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Sinaloa, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Yucatán (ine 2008b).

The coastal area affected by a sea level rise of 1 m is estimated for the states of Campeche, Nayarit, Quintana Roo, Sinaloa, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Yucatán, and is presented in Table IV.3. The state of Campeche would have the largest affected area, with 4,321 km2.

Sea level rise is a long-term process; however, it is already evident and can therefore be considered together with the problems of coastal erosion. If the scenarios of sea level rise are taken into account, one would expect significant impacts in some coastal regions of Mexico. In addition, storm surges associated with hurricanes and nortes, with probable greater rainfall intensities, could in-crease the potential for coastal flooding.

Case Study: Campeche

The same study indicates that the process of beach

Table IV.2. Trends in sea level in the Mexican coastline.

Site Average increase (mm/ year) Period Cd. Madero, Tamaulipas. 9.16 1962-1979

Guaymas, Sonora. 4.23 1951-1991

Cd. del Carmen, Campeche. 3.38 1956-1990

Manzanillo, Colima. 3.28 1954-1988

Ensenada, Baja California. 2.73 1956-1992

Progreso, Yucatán. 2.45 1952-1984

Veracruz, Veracruz. 1.89 1952-2003

Salina Cruz, Oaxaca. 1.13 1952-1992

Source: Prepared with data from INE 2008b.

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 131

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132 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

generation depends heavily on the sediment contribu-tion from the mainland, through river discharge. The formation of lagoon environments in Campeche is due to the presence of discharges from rivers such as the Champotón, San Pedro and San Pablo, and the Grijal-va-Usumacinta. The large-scale morphological features of this region show the erosion of the deltas formed by these rivers due to the distribution of river sediments by ocean and littoral currents. Today, with the anthro-pogenic modification of the discharge volumes of such rivers, the continent-ocean balance of sediment supply has been upset, increasing the erosive effect of ocean currents.

In the study, a diagnosis of the accretion- erosion14 process was carried out on the coast of Campeche, since records of this process exist for eleven coastal sites. Scenarios of sea level increase were used to assess the potential affected areas.

Process of erosion of the coast of Campeche

Currently, the coast of Campeche is undergoing a domi-nant process of erosion, alternating with episodes of ac-

14 Accretion. Growth through addition of matter, as in mineral de-posits or continents.

cretion on some beaches. The coastal dynamic follows the seasonal weather cycles. Thus, during the dry sea-son, the beaches generally stabilize, and the process of erosion is reinitiated during the nortes and tropical cy-clones. In the norte season, episodes of erosion are more severe, with coastline retreat (marine transgression)15 of up to 14 meters.

Inward displacement of the coastline has been re-corded in 11 coastal sites in the state of Campeche (Table IV.4). Based on the observed data, it can be seen that this displacement is greater in the west (Atasta Peninsula, with 487.7 m of movement)16 than in the East (Isla Aguada, with 5.7 m). Analysis of the situation at Atasta Peninsula revealed that the eroded strip is pro-gressively extending eastwards, following the morphol-ogy of old delta strands17 which form the current coast-line, with retreats of up to 700 m (Figure IV.9b).

According to the current state of erosion in the Atasta Peninsula, vulnerability is high at its eastern ex-treme (Punta Disciplina), given that the current strip un-dergoing erosion is less than 290 m wide (Figure IV.9c) and its collapse would precipitate the immediate loss of a lagoon known as Laguna Mata Grande, which is located behind this strip.

The erosion rate recorded at the Punta Disciplina sand bar, Campeche, over the past 30 years, was 14 m/ year. It is possible that this is associated with the effect caused by rising sea levels, observed globally at 1.8 mm/ year over the past four decades. If this rate of erosion remains constant, the sandbar could disap-pear in 20 years. To this projection must be added the increase in sea level estimated for 2030, presented in the next section, and which could lead to the inten-

15 Marine transgression is the retreat of the coastline into the main-land, usually linked to sea level rise or land subsidence. 16 Atasta Peninsula is formed by a series of delta strands in an east-west orientation, interspersed with small hills and flooded strips, making this site a large area of wetlands.17 Delta strands, interspersed with water bodies, make the process of erosion occur in large pulses: when coastal erosion destroys one of the strips of land formed by these ridges, the adjoining strip of water behind the ridge is instantly incorporated into the body of ocean water. This process virtually doubles the rate of erosion.ero-sion progress.

Table IV.3. State area affected considering a rise of 1 m in

sea level.

*Percentage is relative to the state total.Source: Prepared with data from INE 2008b.

State State area affected by a possible sea level rise of 1 m

km2 %*Campeche 4,321 7.46

Quintana Roo 4,011 9.47

Sinaloa 3,775 6.58

Veracruz 3,591 5.00

Tabasco 2,024 8.18

Yucatán 1,862 4.70

Tamaulipas 1,604 2.00

Nayarit 890 3.20

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 133

sification of the erosion process in Punta Disciplina, such that the sandbar could disappear in less than two decades.

Scenarios of sea level rise in Campeche

The coastal zones of Campeche that would be impact-ed in the short term were identified from scenarios of increases in sea level of 8, 13 and 33 cm (Figure IV 10). Faced with the scenario of an increase of 8 cm, ef-fects would be felt on the Atasta Peninsula and Pun-ta Disciplina, as well as on part of the Isla del Carmen, Campeche. With an increase of 33 cm, the region cov-ered by the Laguna de Términos, in Campeche, would become a bay by the year 2100. Most of the coast of Campeche would be covered by the sea, leading to the potential disappearance of Isla del Carmen.

Regardless of the future scenario considered, the continuation of the trends of increase in sea level would

result in loss of coastal areas of Campeche, which would add to the effects of coastal erosion and flooding. The areas under impact, considering increases of 8 to 33 cm, would be affected in the following chrononogical order: Atasta Peninsula, in the western zone; the interior of Laguna de Términos; and Isla del Carmen.

Adaptation to sea level rise

From the study detailed in this section (ine 2008b), potential adaptation measures were identified to reduce impacts on the coastline of the country, particularly on the coast of Campeche. Some of these measures are:

1. Maintaining the sediment supply from rivers to the coast, as a measure to cope with the rising sea lev-el. This highlights the relevance of studying and ad-dressing the influence of dams in reducing sediment supply.

2. Extending the length of the buffer zones in urban and tourist developments on the most vulnerable coastal areas, to reduce potential damage caused by hurricanes and floods.

3. Developing and implementing a strategy for the re-location of the population currently threatened and situated on mangrove swamps and coastal marshes, promoting a gradual withdrawal of the population living in the flood plains of major rivers.

4. Strengthening the regulation of land use in the deltas and encouraging sustainable practices of soil manage-ment and water use in agricultural and livestock hus-bandry activities undertaken in the middle and upper basins and, where appropriate, restoring abandoned farmland and integrating this into the ecosystems.

5. Enlarging areas for the protection of wetlands and coastal marshes, especially in those states identified as under threat of impacts from increasing sea levels.

6. Promoting spaces for the displacement of coastal ecosystems, through regulation, so that the develop-ment of infrastructure and human settlements will be towards the interior of the continent, from the boundaries of those areas that would potentially be affected by increases in sea level.

Table IV.4. Displacement of the coastline in the state of

Campeche.

Source: INE 2008b.

Site Period Interval (years)

Total displace-ment (m)

Atasta 1974-2008 34 487.7

Punta la disciplina

1974-2005 31 216.8

Sabancuy 1974-2005 31 211.2

Club de playa

1974-2007 33 171.0

San Pedro–San Pablo

1974-2006 32 154.8

Punta de Xen

1974-2002 28 124.6

Cases 1974-2007 33 117.7

Cham-potón

1974-2006 32 77.2

Nitrogeno-ducto

1974-2004 30 21.2

Playa norte 1974-2008 31 8.1

Isla aguada 1974-2005 31 5.7

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134 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

Note: A) State of erosion/accretion of the coast of Campeche. B) Atasta Peninsula Coastline in 1974, 2001 and 2008. C) Erosion in Punta Disciplina; the current width of the sand bar is 290 m. Source: INE 2008b.

Figure IV.9. Variations of the process of erosion/ accretion on Atasta Peninsula, Campeche.

G ul f o

f Me x

i c o

Accumulation-Erosion

Continuous erosion Accumulation-Erosion

Base image 20112008 Coastline

1974 Coastline

700 m coastline retreat

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7. Continuing the attention being given to the fragmen-tation of wetlands in the lower basins that are affect-ed by coastal infrastructure (roads, bridges, levees, jetties, walls, etc.).

8. Strengthening the implementation of reforestation programs with species resistant to increased temper-ature and salinity, to build and stabilize dunes, in or-der to reduce coastal erosion and enhance shoreline stabilization.

9. Maintaining an optimum flow stream for the de-velopment of coastal ecosystems through planning dams to ensure flow.

10. Strengthening control of pollution and damage to corals and mangroves and implementing programs to prompt their recovery in order to increase the resil-ience of the coastline.

4.3.3 Water Sector

Fresh water is a resource which is increasingly in demand. Problems such as that of resource gover-

Figure IV.10. Scenarios of sea level rise on the coast of Campeche.

Source: INE 2008b.

nance18 begin to lead conflicts between sectors and regions. Pollution of surface and underground bod-ies of water has aggravated the situation in recent years. To this must be added the fact that climate change will reduce the availability of water even fur-ther in Mexico. Therefore, resource management planning in the medium and long term is a priority.

According to some studies, a reduction in average annual rainfall has been observed in Mexico; the reduced availability of water is mainly due to population and eco-nomic growth (INE 2009a). According to CONAGUA (2008), in 2007 the country had an average natural water availability per capita of 4,312 m3/ inh/ year, cal-culated from the average natural runoff, which is consid-ered to be sufficient to carry out the various consump-

18 Governance: the art or manner of governing that has the achieve-ment of sustainable economic, social and institutional long-term de-velopment as its objective, promoting a healthy balance between the state, civil society and the market economy.

Key

(0.08 m)

(0.13 m)

(0.33 m)

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136 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

be expected in the average natural water availability, which will be affected both by higher evapotranspiration and less rain, by decreasing quality, by increased saltwa-ter intrusion in coastal aquifers due to rising sea levels, and by the effects of more intense, and possibly more frequent, extreme events such as nortes or hurricanes. This situation affects both human and natural systems, particularly in those regions suffering from water scar-city. It is therefore necessary to identify the local effects and to develop appropriate adaptation measures (INE 2009a, 2008c).

In the study (INE 2008c), the change in availability of water in Mexico was assessed in terms of quantity and quality, through applying a vulnerability index de-fined in the study, which considered variables of pres-sure or intensity of resource use, overexploitation, saline intrusion and pollution level, in addition to the effects of climate change under the A2 and A1B scenarios of GHG emissions (INE 2008c). It is concluded from the results that the quantity and quality of water resources under the current conditions of the index are vulnerable, and that this vulnerability will increase with changing climate conditions. This will occur principally in the RHA II North West and VI Rio Bravo, followed by RHA VII Cuencas Centrales del Norte, RHA I Baja California and RHA XIII Valle de México (Figure IV.12).

In the same study, a diagnosis of the main effects related to water quality was carried out in some sectors of interest in Mexico, such as health, biodiversity, agri-culture, forestry and tourism; however, the lack of sys-tematic information on water quality prevents adequate and separate analysis of all the factors which combine to increase the risk in a particular sector.

In the future, Mexico’s urban areas will see an exacer-bation of the problem of water supply in direct relation to population growth, as well as through climate change and variability. The main reasons will be linked to the lower-ing of groundwater levels (by reducing recharge and in-creasing evapotranspiration), and the reduction of the flow of surface water (2009a INE, 2008c). To address such problems, cities should operate on closed-loop schemes (which means that water is reused and recycled), capture rainwater, attenuate storm peaks through drainage infra-

tion activities19 that depend on this resource. However, this figure reflects regional disparities. To cite the ex-tremes, the availability for the Hydrologic Administrative Region (Región Hidrológica Administrativa, RHA)20 XIII Valle de México was 143 m3/ inh/ year, which is well below the international threshold of 1,700 m3/ inh./ year, considered to represent water stress (WRI 2009). Conversely, in the RHA XI Southern Border, the avail-ability was 24,270 m3/ inh./ year. In the north of the country, low precipitation causes almost all the water to be extracted from aquifers and therefore this is an area of aquifer overexploitation. In terms of national water use in 2007, 63.4% of total water by volume comes from surface sources (rivers, streams and lakes), while 36.6% is extracted from aquifers, which is equivalent to 50 bil-lion and 28.9 billion m3, respectively (Figure IV.11).

From these results, and with the information pre-sented in Figure IV.11, it is evident that most of the water used in agricultural and industrial activities comes from underground sources; however, this type of source has the lowest availability of the resource.

Effects on water availability

Both the trends in recent decades and the climate pro-jections indicate that the majority of water resources in Mexico are vulnerable to climatic extremes and therefore have a high potential to be heavily impacted by them. Based on the results of regionalized climate change sce-narios for Mexico (see Section 4.3.1), a reduction would

19 Activities and uses of the resource outside the body of water, to which the liquid must be transported and from where it is used and does not return, in whole or in part, to the body of water from which it was removed. http://www.aguas.org.mx/sitio/02a_usos.html. Viewed at the website of the Water Advisory Council, A.C. on October 5, 2009.20 Area of land defined according to hydrological criteria, consist-ing of one or more hydrological regions and states, in which the wa-tershed is considered the basic unit for the management of hydro-logical resources and the municipality is considered, as in other legal instruments, the minimum unit of administrative management in the country. The Mexican Republic is divided into 13 administra-tive regions, known as hydrological administrative regions: http://www.chihuahua.gob.mx/jcas/Contenido/plantilla5.asp?cve_canal=478&Portal=jcas.

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Figure IV.11. (A) Water use in Mexico in 2007, in billion cubic meters, and (B) sources as a percentage.

Source: INE 2009.

Source: INE 2008c.

Figure IV.12. Vulnerability Index for quantity and quality of water by hydrological administrative region under the scenario

A2 of GHG emissions, for the three climatologies: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

80

60

40

20

0

Agricultural

Surface Underground

Surface Underground

Public supply Self-supplying industry Thermoelectric power stations

Total

36.6%

63.4%

Uses of water

Moderate Strong Extreme

Billi

ons

of m

3

A B

vulnerability index

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138 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

structure, and treat discharges to enable reintegration of the water into the environment (INE 2008c).

Another study shows an example of how the prob-lem of water availability could quickly worsen in the state of Morelos. Under climate change, combined with socio-economic development factors and alteration of the en-vironment, a situation of reduced availability of water is projected, mainly in the eastern part of the state. This will significantly affect the various economic activities in the region, chief among which are agriculture, fruit pro-duction and the industrial sector. It is important to note that sustainable management of forests in the northern part of the state will contribute significantly to the future availability of water (INE 2006b).

This is a clear example of how the threat of climate change must be considered in planning and development activities, in order to address problems related to water availability.

Adaptation strategies in the water sector

It is clear that, in light of the results presented in several studies, identification of the causes of vulnerability is a starting point for the design and development of strate-gies and actions to adapt to climate change.

At both the national and local level, the current form of water management is changing in order to meet the challenges of climate change in terms of supply reliabil-ity, flood risk, health protection, agriculture, energy and aquatic ecosystems. The first signs of supply problems to society have been clear for much of 2009, when several states had to resort to water rationing to cope with the drought associated with the phenomenon of El Niño.21

As a first step towards long-term adaptation, informa-tion on climate variability and climate change is consid-ered together with non-climatic factors. Consideration of this information is required in the solutions explored for

21 Abnormal conditions in the ocean temperatures of the eastern tropical Pacific. Corresponds to the climatic state in which the tem-perature of the sea surface is at least 0.5 °C or higher than the av-erage temperature of the period 1950-1979, for at least six con-secutive months, in the region known as "Niño 3" (4° N-4° S, 150° W-90° W), (Magaña 2004).

water supply, including risk management using weather and climate forecasts.

It is necessary to continue strengthening the techni-cal capacity to understand and use meteorological infor-mation; develop methods for decision making in terms of probabilities; strengthen institutions, regulations and the market; as well as to encourage civil society participation in the development and evaluation of strategies and pro-grams (INE 2009a, 2008c).

4.3.4 Agricultural Sector

Agriculture depends mainly on climatic factors such as sunlight, rainfall and temperature, among others.

The results of a recent study (INE 2007b) indicate that an increase in mean average temperature may en-hance the development of maize, due to a higher rate of heat accumulation. This would enhance the reduction of the phenological cycle,22 although with a potential de-crease in production due to the reduced time available for absorption of nutrients, interception of solar energy and metabolic activities. This situation could occur for the maize crop in the three regions defined in the study as Central, Jalisco and Chiapas, with potential impact on the critical stages of the crop, such as flowering, formation or grain filling, should such temperature increases coincide with any of these processes. In the Distrito de Riego de Río Fuerte, Sinaloa (075), a reduction is estimated in the average length of the maize autumn-winter phenological cycle of 4%, 7% and 13%, by the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, relative to current conditions (Ojeda et al. 2006).

Some of the direct effects of climate change on agri-culture in Mexico could be felt differentially in some re-gions, according to their particular conditions:

Changes in the development and production of crops, •due to the influence on phenological cycles. Increase in the frost-free period of agricultural areas, •which would result in a longer period for the devel-opment of some crops and increase in the number of

22 Refers to the rhythmic phenomena of plants and vegetation, such as periods of flowering, fruiting, defoliation, etc. (Rzedowski 1978).

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crop cycles per year. Reduction of arable land and income generated in •rain-fed agriculture areas, due to the increase in the length and intensity of drought. Effects on the irrigation districts of the northwest, •due to changes in water availability. Reduced rainfall and increased temperature, which •will limit production in the spring-summer cycle of the irrigation districts located in arid and semiarid re-gions of Mexico.

The crop coefficient (Kc), which incorporates crop characteristics and the average effects of evaporation on the soil, is a tool for planning and programming basic ir-rigation schedules.

Changes in the Kc values of maize, in the face of cli-mate scenarios and under the A2 scenario of GHG emis-sions by 2020, 2050, and 2080, and at present, rep-resent a probable delay with respect to the change of periods of peak water demand of maize, due to short-ening of the phenological cycle of maize (Figure IV.13). In the irrigation districts of the arid zones of Mexico, it is important to develop adaptation measures, with ad-justments to the annual allocations of water per plant-ing season and species and variety cultivated, as well as adopting management practices to adapt to the ex-pected conditions. For perennial crops with typical plant-ing dates in autumn-winter, water requirements may in-crease as climate change intensifies (Ojeda et al. 2006).

Economic effects of climate change on agriculture

According to Landa et al. (2008), a first approximation of the costs to agriculture of climatic risk and disaster can be obtained from the relationship between the invest-ment required to produce one ton of grain and the ben-efits obtained from this production.

Based on technical studies, estimates of the poten-tial economic loss that climate change would inflict on Mexican agricultural production are in the order of 16 to 22 billion pesos (INE 2007c).

Adaptation strategies in agriculture

Reduction in water availability will require new man-agement of reservoirs and of the capacity of channels to supply it during critical periods for the crops. The re-sponse of agriculture to climate change must include planned adaptation measures that consider coordinat-ed action among farmers, associations, universities, re-search centers, business and government. Short term adaptation strategies may be based on the modification or improvement of current agricultural practices. Many of these are relatively simple, such as changing planting dates and varieties, crop rotation and the use of methods and systems for conserving soil moisture. However, it is necessary to adapt agricultural systems to new climatic conditions (INE 2007b).

It is important to strengthen the support structure in the field regarding climate risk, since the projections for most of the country under climate change scenarios show reductions in production in the most important areas.

As part of a study (INE 2008a), water availability and various measures of adaptation to climate change were assessed; they were the following : a) automation of irrigation; b) automation of irrigation plus changing the crop; and c) automation of irrigation plus reduction of cul-tivated areas, in the Guayalejo River basin in Tamaulipas, with the organized participation of key stakeholders in irrigation districts, municipalities and cities. The factors necessary to conduct a comprehensive review of alloca-tion policies and management of water rights were iden-tified in irrigation districts. Currently and for the coming decades, it will be necessary to adjust these water con-cessions to the conditions of a changing climate.

Based on these factors, there is a need to conduct local studies of the impact of climate change on the wa-ter demands of irrigated areas with the current cropping patterns, with different planting dates, agricultural cy-cles and expected climate projections. A comprehensive analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of agricul-tural water demands will be necessary at the watershed level, given the changes in climatic patterns expected for each of the irrigated areas in our country.

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140 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

Use of climate information in agricultural insurance

In Mexico, the scarce use of climate information among producers renders mainly rain-fed agriculture, being fully exposed to climate changes. There are recent examples that suggest that this fact has led to serious losses in the sector: the delay of the rainy season in the summer of 2005 and 2009 caused agricultural drought, and con-sideration of the results of climate forecasting models is therefore required.

The use of climate diagnoses and forecasts represents a valuable instrument to plan agricultural activities. The former involves an evaluation of the average weather con-ditions, including the identification of regional conditions detrimental to crop development. Forecasts, on the other hand, predict the likelihood of any particular condition (e.g. rain outside a critical range), from least to most favourable occurring within a given region. For AGROASEMEX, the largest agricultural insurance agency in Mexico, knowledge of climate variability is recognized in the definition of insur-ance policies for rain-fed agriculture.

When the climate is unnatural, as was the case in 2005, the costs of insurance payment for AGROASEMEX are high and therefore this institution is promoting a cul-ture of climate information use. This action will become strictly necessary because of increasing climate variabil-ity, and therefore the use of forecast information is es-sential, especially about dry farming crops.

In Guanajuato and Queretaro, in the Bajio region, the rainy season usually begins in mid-June and ends in October. However, there are extraordinary years where the rainy period may be extended, reduced or intermit-tent, with intermediate dry stages. Rain-fed agriculture, mainly maize, is generally practiced in the south and southwest of the Bajio, where the probability of hav-ing a minimum seasonal rainfall ranges from medium to high. The central part is a region with a high probability of failing to achieve the minimum water requirements for rain-fed agriculture maize (Figure IV.14), but even there this type of agriculture is practiced. These calcu-lations can be performed for each phenological stage of maize (Landa et al. 2008).

In forecast mode, seasonal and monthly forecasts of rainfall can be used to estimate the probability of precipi-

Note: The crop coefficient (Kc) describes variations in the amount of water extracted from the soil by the plants as they develop, from planting through to harvest.Source: Ojeda et al. 2006.

Figure IV.13. Variation of crop coefficient (Kc), under climate change from the planting date of November 15th, in the

irrigation district of Rio Fuerte, Sinaloa (075).

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.1

2080

2080

2050

2020

Current

Current

Crop

coe

ffici

ent (

Kc)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

Days after sowing

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tation failing to reach the threshold values required for a minimum of success in the harvest. Data of yields or ac-cidents can be used to establish the value of the risk and the minimum acceptable yield (INE 2007a).

As with any risk management problem, determina-tion of the threshold value of “intolerable” risk is carried out by an industry expert, an agricultural insurance ad-ministrator or a farmer.

It is clear that the final decision-making scheme must incorporate confidence, the level of certainty of the sea-sonal forecasts and the relationship between region-al climate and conditions such as La Niña and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in order to establish the critical values of probability on which decisions are made. In the short term, forecasts are being considered increas-ingly important for the planning of agricultural activities and costs of crop insurance premiums.

4.3.5 Livestock sector

This sector has a rapid response to the effects of drought and other climate variations (INE, 2008a). To analyze the effects of climate change, the rangeland coefficient (coeficiente de agostadero, CA)23 can be considered in order to assess varia-tion in availability of feed for livestock, especially grass.

The results of the CA point that climate change would increase the land area with less favorable con-ditions for the development of livestock, mainly in the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern states of the coun-try, which would bring major changes to the number of animals these ecosystem could support. This is related to the intensification of evapotranspiration in plant com-munities, which directly affects their development and ability to generate dry matter for livestock.

One approach to determine whether an animal or group of animals is or is not affected by climate is in terms of the values of the temperature-humidity index (THI), an indicator of comfort for ruminants. In cattle production in Veracruz, THI values of 71 to 74 are con-

23 Pasture coefficient: land area required to sustain one animal unit per year, permanently and with no deterioration in natural resources, expressed as hectares per animal unit per year.

sidered to be maximum values in terms of animal wel-fare. Under climate change scenarios, situations affecting animal welfare are possible between April and October in central Veracruz (Figure IV.15). The greatest tempera-ture increases would be expected in the spring and sum-mer months, implying that the cattle would spend most of the time in a state of intense stress.

It is important to conduct more detailed assessments on the impacts and vulnerability of the livestock sector in the face of climate change, with the active participation of farm-ers and policy makers, to develop strategies and actions of adaptation. Facing such a reduction in cattle feed source, the maintenance of the viability of livestock production will require the investment of economic resources to compen-sate for what nature can no longer provide in a natural way.

4.3.6 Fisheries Sector

The increase in the temperature of the Mexican Pacific Ocean as a result of global warming will manifest itself as an extension of the warm pool,24 which in fact occurs dur-ing the phenomenon of El Niño and can affect surround-ing ocean currents, the stratification of the water column in the ocean and the upwelling of productive waters from below the thermocline.25 This occurs in the Gulf of Califor-nia, the west coast of Baja California, the coasts of Nayarit and Jalisco and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (INE 2008a).

Impact on the upwelling of productive waters would result in a decrease in zooplankton biomass, a reduction of the richness of nutrients and a consequent impact on the distribution of organisms. This can translate into a change in the structure of fish and invertebrate communities. With warmer oceans, it is expected a decrease in cold-water spe-cies and an increase in the presence of tropical species.

While most fish species associated with coral reefs are living near their thermal limit, it appears that small ris-

24 Warm pools are areas of the ocean where surface temperatures are recorded at or above 28° C. One such pool occurs off the coast of Michoacan and Guerrero. 25 Thermocline: intermediate layer (also called transition zone) of the ocean that extends to a depth of 1,500 m. It divides the less dense and less saline surface waters from those waters at colder and more dense and saline depths (Dajoz 2002).

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142 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

es in temperature influence the recruitment and increase the rate of development of fish larvae; however, the structure and health of the reef can be affected. These benefits will be offset by the decrease in egg production and increased mortality of embryos due to the high tem-peratures, thereby reducing the number of larvae that enter the pelagic stage.26

26 Pelagic phase: stage of the life cycle of some post-larval fish in

The rise in sea level will change the salinity and characteristics of estuarine lagoons, which will affect the habitats in which the wide variety of economical-ly important fish spend some stage of their life cycle. Many lagoons are currently being incorporated into the sea and estuarine areas will move further upstream. To halt and reverse the environmental degradation of

the superficial open sea.

Source: INE 2007a.

Figure IV.14. A) Likelihood of having rainfall below 450 mm, accumulated between June and October, considered the

minimum required for maize cultivation in the central region of the country. B) Type of agriculture practiced.

Irrigated farming

Rain-fed agriculture

21°36’ N

21°12’N

20°48’N

20°24’N

20°00’N

102°24’W 101°36’W 100°48’W 100°00’W 99°12’W

0 20 40 60 80 100

%

A

B

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 143

coastal and marine ecosystems is undoubtedly an im-portant goal to be considered in any program to reduce the vulnerability of fisheries to climate change and to the development of adaptation measures. Faced with a possible decrease in annual rainfall, damp management will be essential to maintain the minimum ecological spend necessary to preserve the lagoon and estuarine ecosystems.

There are strategies and programs that, if adopted with more rigour and extended, could be useful instru-ments in the maintenance and restoration of coastal and marine ecosystems. At international level, there are: the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries, and re-lated national programs, as well as the General Law of Ecological Equilibrium and Environmental Protection and the Fisheries Act. The decree of marine Protected Natural Areas (ANP), which includes coral reefs, is one of the most important strategies of environmental poli-cy. Currently, there are 13 ANP in areas with coral reefs, nine of which are located in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, and four on the Pacific coast. Also, within the framework of the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance (RAMSAR), areas with coral reefs, mangrove, seagrass and wetlands in general have been protected.

The precautionary approach in fisheries manage-ment, protection of deteriorated species, capture of new species, and improved technical, administrative, organi-zational and social education of the fisheries sector will be essential to meet the challenges of climate change, which are already beginning to combine with existing environmental and socioeconomic problems to generate vulnerability in many cases (INE 2008a).

4.3.7 Forestry sector

In Mexico there is great diversity of types of natural terrestrial vegetation, occupying an area of about 140 million hectares (Mha) and equivalent to 73% of the national territory. The ecosystems with the highest per-centage of surface vegetation cover are the xeric shru-blands (41%), temperate forests (24%) and rainforests (23%).

The trend of conversion of terrestrial ecosystems to other land uses in Mexico has decreased in recent years. However, the conversion of land from forest to other uses remains the main cause of land use change and its consequent deforestation (Table IV.5).

The Strategic Forestry Plan for Mexico 2025 (Plan Estratégico Forestal para México 2025, SEMARNAT, 2001) presents a diagnosis of the forestry sector and in-cludes various factors classified as forest management prob-lems: a) the use of forest resources is not optimal; b) the high costs of sustainable forest management; c) illegal logging; d) lack of interest of producers in sustainable management; and e) limited promotion of sustainable management.

Potential distribution of forestry species

One direct effect of climate change is the increased po-tential for evapotranspiration which generates water stress, depending on the physiology of each tree spe-cies, and may also produce other indirect factors, such as increased incidence of pests and diseases, potential increases in forest fires and a decrease in pollination, among others.

In a recent study (INE 2008a), 12 forestry spe-cies were selected, distributed into three climatic zones (Table IV.6), and the potential distribution per species was assessed for the base scenario and under scenarios of climate change.

Considering environmental requirements (soil type, temperature and precipitation), four categories of poten-tial ability were defined for the presence of the twelve species: a) unsuitable; b) marginal; c) moderate; and d) suitable for current conditions and under those of climate change (Figure IV.16).

The main results of the analysis of potential distri-bution of individual tree species under climate change, under the A2 scenario of GHG emissions and at the time horizon of 2050, relative to the baseline scenario are:

Temperate zone species. The most affected would be •Pinus cembroides and Pinus pseudostrobus, through an increase of area in the category of “unsuitable”. In the North-central region of Mexico, the land area not suit-

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144 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

able for temperate species distribution would increase. However, due to the particular conditions of the cen-ter of Chihuahua state, there would be increases in land areas of “marginal” and “moderate” suitability, which would supplant areas in the “unsuitable” category.• Semiarid zone species. The naturally suitable land area for Acacia farnesiana would diminish. Northeastern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula would pres-ent the greatest increases in land area unsuitable for the potential distribution of semi-arid species, while in the southern region of the Mexican altiplano, such suitability would increase.Tropical zone species. The situation tends to be po-•larized: while some species would show potential land area increases, with some degree of favorable suit-ability, as in the case of mahogany, breadnut and teak; for other species, such as the red cedar, there would be a rise in the area of the “unsuitable” category. The states of Veracruz, Tabasco and Campeche southwest are the regions where there would be increases in land area of the category “unsuitable” for the presence of tropical species, while increases in fitness for the distri-bution of most of these species could be present in the upland areas of the state of Sonora.

The most notable changes are observed in the north of the country, with potential reductions in the area cov-ered by coniferous forests and an increase in the prob-ability of favorable conditions for dry forest.

When comparing the variation in the area, in terms of different degrees of suitability for the distribution of individual tree species under scenarios A2 and B2 for GHG emissions, the pattern of distribution was gener-ally found to be maintained. However, there are minor variations for most of the selected tree species under the B2 scenario, which is one of lower GHG emissions, com-pared with that of the A2 scenario.

Given the diversity of possible situations, state, re-gional and/ or local assessments must be promoted, in order to be aware in greater detail of the potential im-pacts that climate change, combined with changing land use, may present in important forestry species. Such projections, in keeping with the reality in the forests, combined with strategies to address the factors that are classified as forest management problems, could contrib-ute to decisions on sustainable harvesting, reforestation, agroforestry and national forestry markets, according to each of the possible future scenarios.

Source: INE 2008a.

Figure IV.15. Average historically retrospective expression of the temperature and humidity index (THI) from 1961-2002

and 1999-2002, in central Veracruz.

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66

64

62

Tem

pera

ture

and

hum

idit

y in

dex

(TH

I)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Average THI 1961-2002

Average THI 1990-2002

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Damage related to forest pests

The increase in temperature and rainfall has led to an in-crease in the life cycles of forest pests, especially in tem-perate and tropical forests. Under climate change these pests could have up to three additional life cycles per year, relative to current conditions (INE 2007d).

One study found that of the total of 82 registered pests in Mexico, 33 are important because of their wide distribution in the territory, while 49 are considered mi-nor pests. While more groups of pests and pathogens affecting forests are recognized, the most important in-sect species in terms of damage to the natural forests in Mexico are bark removers, defoliators and tree borers, which affect between 10 and 20 thousand ha of forest area annually (INE 2007d).

The results of the same study on the area of potential distribution of pests in temperate forests under tempera-ture increases of 1° C and 2° C, indicate that: a) at eleva-tions of 1,500 to 2,500 masl and with an increase of 1° C, the incidence of economically important pests could af-fect 10% to 30% of the total ecosystem area and, b) at elevations from 2,501 to 3,300 masl, with an increase of 2° C, the incidence of pests could increase by between 30% and 40% (Figure IV.17). Similarly, in the case of the tropical forests: a) at elevations from 0 to 1,000 masl and with an increase of 1° C, pests will potentially be present in between 20% and 30% of the total ecosystem area; and b) for elevations of 1,001 to 1,500 masl and an increase of 2° C, there would be a potential distribution of pests in 40% to 50% of the total forest area (INE 2007d).

From the intersection of relevant information vari-ables (temperature, humidity, altitude, vegetation type, pest type) in the same study, it was found that temper-ate forests would register the impacts of pests in 7% to 11% of the total ecosystem area, while in rainforests this would rise to 13% to 35% of area, with temperature increases of 1° C and 2° C, respectively. This indicates the vulnerability of these forest ecosystems to increased pest numbers resulting from climate change.

To further evaluate the impacts of climate change on the incidence and effects of pests in forest ecosystems requires the: a) generation of a geo-referenced inventory of pests in

forest areas, b) identification of local changes in the phenol-ogy of pests and their relationship to particular climatic toler-ances; c) characterization and evaluation of the role of soil as a facilitator and enabler for the resistance to and spread of pests, and d) relation of the local climatic conditions and seasonal and annual variability to the presence of pests.

Economic effects of climate change on ecosystems

The cost of forest fires, which would worsen under climate change, includes the cost of fire fighting and of the lost re-source value, which amounts to a little over 20 thousand pesos per hectare, calculated with data from 2004, and without taking into account the cost of human injuries and deaths. Considering the conditions in 1998, which present-ed a severe incidence of the El Niño phenomenon, as a like-ly scenario of climate change, the cost of forest fires would be approximately 17 billion pesos a year. It should be noted that the estimated values do not include losses of environ-mental services and biodiversity, the immediate impact on agricultural production, the future effects on land productiv-ity, the direct and indirect costs to the affected communities or the costs of relocating these communities.

From the methodologies considered in a study to de-termine the value of certain forests with specific charac-teristics, such as the forest of the monarch butterfly, it was felt that the benefits of forest exploitation are 667 pesos/ ha, while the value of forest use (recreational val-ue) for visitors to the site is 928 pesos/ ha Moreover, it was determined that the value of existence of forest land is $6,840 to $15,640 pesos per ha (INE 2007c).

4.3.8 Biodiversity

The total number of known27 species in Mexico is 108,519; of these, approximately two thirds are animals

27 The term “known species” refers to described species or to those have a scientific name, and of which the total number is based on the sum of species per group for which published data exists. Con-sulted at the Thematic Consultation Module SEMARNAT, http://dge-iawf.semarnat.gob.mx:8080/ibi_apps/WFServlet?IBIF_ex=D3_R_BIODIV02_01&IBIC_user = dgeia_mce & IBIC_pass = dgeia_mce.

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Table IV.5. Land use change from 1993 to 2002.

Source: CONAFOR 2008.

Vegetation type 1993 Area Mha 2002 Area Mha Variation in area Mha

Forest 34.46 33.51 -0.956

Rainforest 34.23 32.11 -2.118

Scrubland 59.06 58.09 -0.968

Other associations 16.41 15.99 -0.425

Natural vegetation subtotal 144.16 139.69 -4.466

Agricultural and livestock production uses

40.52 44.46 3.938

Source: INE 2008a.

Table IV.6. Potential distribution of forest species in three climatic zones.

Climatic Zone Forest speciesTemperate Abies religiosa, Pinus ayacahuite, Pinus patula, Pinus cembroides, Pinus durangensis, Pinus

pseudostrobus, Cupresus lindleyi

Tropical Cedrela odorata, Swietenia macrophylla, Brosimum alicastrum, Tectona grandis, Leucaena leucocephala

Semi-arid Agave lechuguilla, Prosopis laevigata, Yucca filifera, Acacia farmesiana

Figure IV.16. Suitability categories for the potential distribution of Pinus pseudostrobus for the base-line scenario.

Source: INE 2008a.

Pacific Ocean

Gulf of Mexico

United States of America

Suitability category

Suitable

Moderate

Marginal

Unsuitable

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while the remainder is composed of plants and fungi (CONABIO 2009a), making Mexico the fourth largest nation worldwide in terms of wealth of species. This high biodiversity is combined with a great cultural richness (CONABIO 2009b).

The biodiversity and ecosystems of the country show signs of anthropogenic impact, which has been acute in the last half century. Deforestation, over-exploitation and pollution of ecosystems, the introduction of invasive species and climate change are direct causes of loss of natural capital (CONABIO 2009c).

The latter cause coincides with that mentioned in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007), which documented worldwide evidence of the statistically sig-nificant effects observed in natural systems which can-not be explained by natural variability, but are related to global warming and add to the direct impact of species loss due to changing land use.

However, in Mexico, information about the effects of climate change on different elements of biodiversity is still being gathered (see Section 4.2.3).

Potential distribution of mammal species

In a recent study, the potential impacts of climate change were analyzed on 61 species of mammals, distributed in nine bioclimatic zones, up to the year 2050 under sce-narios A2 and B2 of GHG emissions (INE 2008a). The main results are:

• There would be a reduction, of between 80 and 100%, in the distribution of four species of mam-mals related to the ecosystems of coniferous and broad-leaved forests: Romerolagus diaza (volcano rabbit), Lepus flavigularis (hare), Orthogeomys gran-dis (gopher), and Megadontomys thomasi (giant deer mouse).The distribution area of two species of mammals •related to bioclimatic zones and sub-humid rainfor-est would increase to more than double their histor-ic area: Cabassous centralis (Northern naked tailed armadillo) and Vampyrum spectrum (False vampire bat).

In general, by the middle of this century it is ex-pected that 30 of the 61 species of mammals studied will lose 50% or more of their current distribution area. At least nine species would be reduced by more than 80% in range, relative to their historical distribution: Romerolagus diaza, Lepus flavigularis, Orthogeomys grandis, Megadontomys thomasi, Megasorex gigas, Sylvilagus cunicularius, Lepus callotis, Cratogeomys mer-riami and Cynomys ludovicianus, all of which are endem-ic or near endemic to Mexico, so these species would be in imminent danger of extinction.

The requirement of plants for suitable growth and development conditions will lead to migration, which will be largely limited by the spatial distribution of the areas of human disturbance, physical barriers (rivers, moun-tains, roads and human settlements), and competition between species. In this regard, some studies have be-gun, within the research network Long Term Ecological Research (LTER), that focus on the analysis of the fol-lowing: changes in the distribution of tree species of the mountain regions of Chiapas (Golich et al. 2008); the effects of climate change on the distribution of two spe-cies of plethodontid salamanders: Pseudoerycea cephal-ica and P. Leprosa (Parra et al. 2005); genetic variation of populations of Pinus oocarpa through altitudinal gradi-ents in the subtropical forests of Michoacán, and the ef-fect of the substitution of the avocado crop considering climate change (Saenz et al. 2006).

The geographical response of species to climate change presents some very clear patterns related to bio-climatic zones and the corresponding vegetation types; therefore, it is necessary to: a) assess the systems of pro-tected area in order to carry out timely measures to miti-gate the potential impact of climate change on the dis-tribution patterns of plants and animals, and b) analyze the effects of climate change at national and local levels, with an emphasis on plant communities as discrete units that include vast numbers of species, based on statistical models that consider the potential distribution of these species under the present conditions and those of cli-mate change.

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Source: INE 2007d.

Figure IV.17. Map of the potential distribution of pests in (A) forest and (B) rainforests under a scenario of an increase in

temperature of 2° C.

A

B

Key

Key

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New approaches to the theme of biodiversity and climate change

Ecosystem management based on resilience28 is a novel approach for which it is necessary to include new param-eters of processes and ecosystem dynamics. If resilience is exceeded, the system becomes vulnerable to the ef-fects of a disturbance (e.g. climate change). From this perspective, it is important to understand the factors that shape vulnerability, develop measures that increase resil-ience and facilitate adaptation. The definition of vulner-ability indicators should not be done at a national level, but rather integrated with local and regional experiences, based on case studies. These indicators should be tested over the climatic events of the recent past, as an analogy for possible future conditions (CONABIO 2009c).

In impact assessments and vulnerability to climate change, the concept of functional groups, at the level of large assemblages of species, must be taken into ac-count. To consider the effects of climate change species by species complicates decision making regarding con-servation and protection, since such efforts can only fo-cus on a limited number of factors and not on a compre-hensive group that would ensure habitat conservation in the longer term.

Internationally, the approach of scenarios of ecologi-cal niches with models of species distribution has pro-gressed towards the identification of probability distri-bution functions through the ensemble of both climate change scenarios and niche distribution scenarios. This signifies an improvement in terms of biodiversity and cli-mate change which will have to be explored for Mexico.

A review of the concept of conservation under cli-mate change must be conducted, assessing the function of biological corridors, and identifying strategies for the delimitation of conservation areas and for the creation of new corridors to facilitate migration of endangered spe-cies, or those under any conservation status. For this, it is necessary to consider the institutional efforts to identify potential new areas for conservation in Mexico in front

28 Resilience refers to the speed with which a perturbed ecosystem can return to its original condition (Allaby 2005).

of additional threats to the conservation of biodiversity, such as changing land use and desertification (CONABIO, CONANP PRONATURA, TNC, FCF and UANL 2007).

Coastal Ecosystems

The impacts on coastal ecosystems are associated with wetland areas.29 Wetlands are highly productive ecosys-tems because they are transition zones between terres-trial and marine ecosystems.

Wetlands are of national importance since they sup-port the activities of fishing, farming, livestock husband-ry, tourism, petroleum extraction and petrochemical pro-cessing. They also function as buffers of the impacts of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena on the coasts. They offer a large biodiversity and both are a source and sink of GHG.

The degree of pressure on wetlands from human activities is the main threat, caused by changes in hy-drology related to dams and deforestation, linked to the expansion of agricultural and livestock husbandry activi-ties and to the development of urban and industrial in-frastructure (including tourism). To this must be added the future changes in climatic conditions, since wetlands are exposed to sea level rise, differential changes in pre-cipitation and temperature, changes in the salinity of wa-ter bodies, salt wedge permeation and reduction in river discharge.

It is estimated that a 1 m increase in the mean sea level would cause losses of wetland areas on the South Pacific coast, the coasts of the Baja California Peninsula, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Faced with a potential increase in the intensity of hurricanes under climate change conditions, the average diameter of the mangrove trees would reduce as they would be subject to impacts at time intervals of less than 25 years, altering the distribution of mangrove forest structures towards smaller sizes. This has been observed

29 Wetlands: According to the definition of the Ramsar Convention, wetlands include areas of marsh, bog, and peat bog or water-covered areas, whether natural or artificial, permanent or temporary, static or flowing, fresh, brackish or saline, including areas of marine water the depth of which does not exceed six meters at low tide.

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in San Blas and Marismas Nacionales (Nayarit) where recently, due to the effect of hurricanes over the past 15 years, the tallest mangroves have almost disappeared (INE 2008b).

The most important effect of the increase in hurri-cane intensity is the erosion of beaches and dunes, a crit-ical process in the Riviera Maya in Quintana Roo, where in some places these have disappeared, leaving the man-groves directly exposed to erosion by the waves, with a loss of over 100 meters of mangrove along the length of the coast. The same situation, although to a lesser intensity, was detected in the Mexican Pacific and the Gulf of California where several barrier islands have plac-es where the ocean waves break through the bar, and have the potential to open a new mouth, as observed in Lucenilla Peninsula, Ensenada del Pabellón (Sinaloa) (INE 2008b).

Adaptation to the impacts of climate change in coastal wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico

In the face of the problems described in the previous section, between 2007 and 2008, preparation of the project “Adaptation to climate change impacts on the coastal wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico” was carried out. This project arises from the will of the Mexican govern-ment to tackle climate change and promote training and strengthening capacities for adaptation. The project was coordinated by the National Institute of Ecology of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources and the Metropolitan Autonomous University (Universidad Au-tónoma Metropolitana, UAM), with financial support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), through the World Bank, which also provided technical assistance (INE 2009b).

The project is the result of interdisciplinary work by experts, involving key local stakeholders, whose aim was to identify and propose potential adaptation mea-sures for implementation in the short term, in order to address the projected high vulnerability of the coastal zone to the expected changes in climate for the present century. The results were published in: “Adaptation to the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands

of the Gulf of Mexico” (“Adaptación a los impactos del cambio climático en los humedales costeros del Golfo de México”) (INE 2009b).

This publication describes one of the first efforts in the world to establish a comprehensive vulnerability as-sessment of coastal wetlands in Mexico, in the face of climate change, and to develop specific measures for its implementation. The assessment was suggested for eight pilot wetlands and their watersheds along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, identified in the project as “highly vulnerable” (Figure IV.18). The most relevant results are described below.

Projections of climate change and land use change

The regional model of the Earth Simulator in Japan, un-der the A1FI scenario of GHG emissions, indicated that annual rainfall will change very little towards the end of this century in the study area, and that the greatest changes may occur in the Yucatán Peninsula. Although this is only one model, in terms of probabilities, the pro-jections of regional climate developed using other meth-ods point in the same direction (INE 2009b; Vergara et al. 2007).

The MCGs, the Earth Simulator in Japan and PRECIS have all projected the following changes for 2100:

Wetlands of the northern Gulf of Mexico face tem-•perature increases of 1 °C to 4 °C; a reduction in rainfall of up to 10%; an increase in evaporation of 5% to 15%; more intense nortes, hurricanes and storms, and rising sea levels. The wetlands of the central Gulf of Mexico will face •temperature increases of 1 C to 4 °C; variations in rainfall from -5% to +10%; more severe nortes and storms and rising sea levels. The wetlands of Mexico's Caribbean coast face tem-•perature increases of 1 °C to 3 °C; a reduction in rainfall of up to 10%; more severe hurricanes, nortes and storms and rising sea levels.

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The existence of the wetlands depends on a fragile balance that maintains the correct water balance between the various phases of the hydrological cycle; and chang-ing land use is the variable that affects this balance to the greatest extent. In this regard, it can be concluded that:

• In the period 1976-2000, the main causes of change were: land conversion to pasture, rain-fed agriculture activity and the expansion of human settlement.• The projection for the next 20 years is associated with deforestation for farming and livestock hus-bandry activities and urban growth, which would re-duce areas with different types of forest, cause the disappearance of the mangroves and increase areas with sparse vegetation such as grasslands.

In Table IV.7 summarizes the changing trends of rel-evant variables in the Gulf of Mexico, under scenarios A2 and B2 of GHG emissions.

Adaptation strategies

The main threats from climate change were identified and prioritized for each of the eight pilot wetlands. These were divided into four groups according to similarities, and the adaptation strategies were prioritized with re-spect to the main threats, so that adaptation measures could be articulated considering these threats (Table IV.8). The measures were chosen through a selection process, and with the participation of key local stake-holders, based on the following criteria: replicability, in-stitutional capacity, high probability of success and cost-effectiveness.

4.3.9 Human Health Sector

In recent decades, Mexico has generated and has been benefited from an improvement in health conditions.

Source: INE 2008d.

Figure IV.18. Location of pilot wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico.

San Fernando La Nacha

Pánuco Altamira

AlvaradoCarmen Pajonal Machona

Nichupté

Punta Allen

Coatzacoalcos

Los Petenes

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The best example of this can be seen in life expectancy, since this indicator has increased from 47 years in 1950 to 75 years in 2000, and has held at this level up to 2009 (http://cuentame.inegi.org.mx/print/population/esperanza.asp).

The demographic profile is a cause and consequence of the national epidemiological profile. However, many problems persist which could be exacerbated by climate change.

Studies have been developed to help prepare the health sector to adapt to the impacts of climate change, for which purpose, consideration has been made of the progress presented in the Third National Communication.

Diagnosis and projection of acute diarrhoeal diseases and dengue

Diagnosis in the Olmec region

A recent study presents a diagnosis, at the municipal lev-el, of the impact of variations in temperature and precipi-tation in the weekly incidence of dengue fever and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in the general population, and Acute Diarrhoeal Diseases (ADD) in children under 5 years, in the Olmec region of the state of Veracruz over the period 1995-2005 (INE 2007e).

The results showed that: a) there is a positive associ-ation between ADD and increasing maximum tempera-ture; and b) in dengue, the relationship is with the mini-mum temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). In the municipalities of Las Choapas and Jesús Carranza there was an increase among the cases of ADD, of 22% and 3%, and in ARI of 2% and 0.10%, respectively, for each increase of 1 °C in the maximum temperature, rela-tive to the average maximum temperature. The effect of this association is felt either in the same or the following week. With respect to dengue, an increase in the num-ber of cases of this disease was found in five municipali-ties, particularly in Mecayapan, where for every degree Celsius increase in the minimum temperature the risk of cases of dengue increased two-fold.

Municipal level projections

In another study, the incidence rates of dengue and ADD were evaluated at municipal level throughout the coun-try, with baseline data of temperature and precipitation for the period 1960-2000, and the projection under scenarios of climate change up to 2030 and under the A2 scenario of GHG emissions considering the MCGs: HADLEY, GFDL and ECHAM. The main findings of the analysis of average annual dengue and ADD morbility, from 1998 to 2005, at the municipal scale for the whole country, are as follows: for every increase/ decrease of one degree Celsius, there is a 4% and 5% increase/ decrease in cases, respectively, and for every 10 mm change in rainfall, the cases vary by 2% and 5% respec-tively (INE 2008e).

Overall, projections up to 2030 (Table IV.9) show that annual cases of dengue and ADD, which could be attributed to climate change, may increase by about 5%.

The results of the risk of dengue and ADD are more evident when considering monthly changes in tempera-ture and rainfall, e.g. for 2030, the month of September would signify a higher risk, particularly in some states in the Southeast of Mexico.

Diagnosis on the United States-Mexico border

Until recently, dengue was considered a tropical disease with a low incidence in the border region between Mexico and the U.S. state of Texas, but this is changing due to a variety of factors, including variations in precipitation and temperature. In this context, an evaluation was made using a decade of observations of the linkages between microcli-mate variables related to the phenomenon of El Niño and changes in the weekly number of dengue cases in the area of Matamoros, Tamaulipas, on Mexico’s northern border.

The results of the study (Brunkard et al. 2008) showed that the incidence of dengue cases increased by 2.6% one week after each event involving a 1 °C increase in weekly maximum temperature. Each increase of 1 °C in SST in the study area was followed, 18 weeks later, by an increase of 19.4% in the incidence of dengue.

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Variables Trend Scenario A2 of GHG emis-sions.

Trend Scenario B1 of GHG emissions

Population Cumulative rates of population increase from 1990, of 15% in 2010, 22% in 2030

Moderate cumulative rates of population increase from 1990, of 14% in 2010, 19% in 2030

Health indicators (life expectancy, access to medical services, education, poverty and margin-alization)

Situation could be “business as usual”. Historically, the south-ern states of Mexico have high indices of marginalization and poverty, which will not be dra-matically reduced in less than thirty years

Rapid growth in public health and education services, 10% reduction in the indices of marginalization and extreme poverty

Municipal Eco-logical Net Domestic Product

Sectors in decline: agriculture and manufacturing (Tamauli-pas and Veracruz)

Key sectors favored with emerging policies: agriculture and silviculture

Sectors in ascent: petroleum and tourism (Campeche and Quintana Roo)

Reduction of petroleum pro-duction and sustained increased of environmentally sustainable tourism

Temperature Increase in temperature of 1.5 to 2 °C

Increase in temperature of 1.5 to 2 °C

Precipitations Reduction in the area Follow their historical trends without change

Emissions of CO2eq

High growth of emissions greater than that recorded in the country, potentially reach-ing 0.64 kg of CO

2eq per peso

of GDP in 2030

Medium growth. In Mexico, the trend was 0.34 kg of CO

2eq

per peso of GDP in 2002

Health risk and responses in Yucatán

From a qualitative analysis by Few et al., (2008), based on opinions (interviews) concerning the health risks of climatic extremes in the presence of tropical cyclones in the state of Yucatán, a marked change has been found during the phase of preparation for tropical cyclones; similarly, the emergency response actions are more effective.

The 1999 implementation by SINAPROC of an Early Warning System (Sistema de Alerta Temprana, SIAT) for hurricanes has had remarkable results in terms of safety. Today, the structures and institutional arrangements coor-dinate efforts with the health sector and civil society orga-nizations at different geographical scales. For example, dur-ing the emergency phase (evacuation) emphasis has been placed on medical services, resulting in the absence of the disease outbreaks that typically occur in tropical cyclones.

Source: INE 2009b.

Table IV.7. Scenarios A2 and B1 in the region of influence of coastal wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico and expected trends

in variables from 2010 to 2030.

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From the results obtained, some guidelines can be derived that suggest strengthening the efforts directed towards the promotion of preventive health, as well as health education, considering that the dissemination of information and incorporation of communities in preven-tion and emergency plans is of vital importance.

Economic effects of climate change in the health sector

Based on the diagnosis of the effects of a 1 °C increase in temperature, it was estimated that the incidence of ma-laria, dengue fever and gastrointestinal infectious disease increases by 1.1%, 1.75% and 1.07% respectively. To calculate the economic impacts of these diseases under

climate change, disease incidence data at national level were considered as well as the respective costs of mor-bility for the year 2005. From the information above, it is estimated that with an increase of 2 °C, losses due to the presence of additional cases of morbility for the three diseases would be 319 thousand pesos, 29.5 million pe-sos and 144 million pesos, respectively (INE 2007c).

The estimated economic impact on the health sector would result in an additional outlay of about 45 trillion pesos30 for the sector, under the A2 scenario for the pe-riod 2008-2050 (INE 2008c).

30 “Trillions” here refers to one million millions.

Table IV.8. Threats and adaptation strategies in pilot sites grouped in eight wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico, identified as

highly vulnerable to climate change.

Source: INE 2009b.

Group Sites Major threats Criteria Adaptation strategy1 Río San Fernando-Laguna

La Nacha

Río Pánuco Altamira

1. Drought

2. Extreme events of heat

Increase in tempera-ture of the order of 1 to 2 °C for every thirty years

Water resource management. Climatic information (early warning system)

2 Río Papaloapan-Laguna de Alvarado

Río Coatzacoalcos-Laguna El Colorado

1. Increase in sea level

2. Floods (storms)

More intense hydro-logical cycle

Urban and rural structural mea-sures. Water resource manage-ment. Climatic information (early warning system)

Climatic information (early warning system)

3 Sistema Lagunar Carmen-Pajonal-Machona

Los Petenes

1. Extreme events of heat

2. Floods (storms, hur-ricanes)

Increase in tempera-ture of the order of 1 to 2 °C for every thirty years

Prevention of fires

Maintenance and increase of conservation schemes

4 Lagoon system Nichupté (Cancún)

Lagoon system Boca Paila (Punta Allen)

1. Hurricanes

2. Increase in sea level

The increase in surface temperature brings greater instability and with it, a greater prob-ability that hurricanes will be of greater intensity

Climatic information (early warning system)Improvement of building regula-tionsMaintenance and increase of construction schemes

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Recommendations for the health sector

In Mexico, information on the impacts of climate on human health remains scarce, and few studies exist that take into account the effects of climate change and the factors that influence pathogen transmission, including human migration, public health measures in some regions and the increasing resistance of vectors and parasites; however, the current findings show that this sector requires special consideration in the coming years. This would help identify which aspects of the health of Mexicans are at risk, in order to establish pri-orities for action.

In order to address the impacts of climate change on the health of the Mexican population, it is impor-tant to: a) raise awareness of the importance of climate to the health sector, b) generate information from epi-demiological surveillance systems of diseases related to climate change; c) strengthen state programs with epidemiological indicators, and d) conduct risk assess-ments to understand the climatic and environmental conditions that favor the transmission of emerging and re-emerging diseases in different regions of the coun-try, considering factors of influence, such as social, de-mographic, economic, environmental and individual health event issues, which determine the vulnerability of the population and of the sector itself. In addition, the development of early warning systems, involving highly vulnerable groups, is proposed to help facilitate interventions in public health issues based on environ-mental problems.

4.3.10 Managing Risk in the face of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena

Vulnerability of the state of Tabasco

The states of the region of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico, where the Grijalva-Usumacinta ba-sin is located, register the heaviest rain recorded in Mex-ico (between 2,000 and 3,000 mm/ year). Caused by the heavy rains in the area over recent decades, major

disasters have occurred that have significantly affected various socio-economic sectors in this region, which has a high index of poverty and underdevelopment.

Furthermore, the southern region of Mexico is among the areas with the highest deforestation in the country. This increases runoff and decreases the infiltration of rain into the soil, particularly in intense precipitation events. Deforestation leads to greater erosion of soil, increasing the sediment transport and siltation of river beds, reduc-ing their ability to carry large volumes of water and in-ducing more frequent flooding (Figure IV.19).

An example of such a disaster, resulting from the combination of the above factors, was the flood in the state of Tabasco in October of 2007, which had an estimated cost of 31,800 million pesos. Figure IV.19 shows the rainfall records from the weather station in Villahermosa, Tabasco, related to flood situations in the region, particularly in the years 1980, 1988, 1999 and 2007. It is noteworthy that in 2008 a flood occurred that was not directly related to the rainfall recorded at the site, which suggests that it is important to pay at-tention to the amount and frequency of rainfall, but also to the water resource management and the en-vironment in the middle and upper basin, in order to assess vulnerability in the lower basin, where the ma-jority of the state of Tabasco is located. Therefore, a diagnosis of vulnerability to heavy rains, that could be more frequent in the Grijalva-Usumacinta basin under climate change, is necessary in order to propose ad-aptation strategies (Figure IV.20). Projects are being carried out in the region to generate capacities of ad-aptation and to be prepared for the trend towards the flooding disasters, which could occur more frequently in Tabasco.

A current study takes as its base the maximum poly-gon of the Tabasco flood, corresponding to the combina-tion of the areas affected by flooding in 2007 and 2008, and from which a first approximation of the vulnerabil-ity of Tabasco to flooding can be obtained (Figure IV. 21). This increases with the presence of atypical rain-fall events, with almost 90% of the state at medium vulnerability, as happened with the flood of 2007 (INE 2008f). In the same study, based on the diagnosis of

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vulnerability of the state, actions are suggested to sup-port the process of adaptation to extreme rainfall. These actions include:

Assessment of water infrastructure built in the state •(control levees and infrastructure, among others) with the geology of the area and the dynamics of its surface hydrology. Evaluation of the dynamics of surface hydrology in •relation to pronounced meanders which reduce the speed of the water courses that cause flooding. Revision and assessment of the built infrastructure •(highways, roads and pipelines, among others) in relation to extreme rainfall events and disruption of flows. Reforestation of the watershed (upper and lower) •with local species to reduce erosion, siltation, sedi-mentation, and to promote the capture and infiltra-tion of rain.Revision of urban development in vulnerable areas •and resettlement.Recovery of regulating vessels and green areas in ur-•ban spots that serve for water capture.Protection of natural ecosystems and stricter imple-•mentation of regulations in protected areas.Incorporation of infrastructure for climate change ad-•aptation in future construction.Promotion of safe access to highways in case of ex-•treme events.Reinforcement of slopes to minimize erosion and •landslides in the uplands.

Costs related to disasters of hydrometeorological ori-gin have caused setbacks in local development capacities and the postponement of priority projects. Funding to support recovery from these events involves private and public stakeholders of different levels of government. In some cases the Federal Government, together with the local authority, has assumed a large share of the cost with the support of the international community.

The costs estimated by ECLAC in relation to the flooding event of 2007, historically the most serious to have taken place in the state, are summarized in Table

IV.10. It is very likely that prevention efforts would have required less money. It is necessary to start work on ad-aptation in the region, since prevention costs at least six times less than emergency action after an event (INE 2008f).

Civil protection strategies and hydrometeo-rological risk management in the face of cli-mate change

In a recent study (INE 2008g) an analysis was made of the lines of action in public policies in Mexico, linking climate change adaptation with risk reduction in terms of disasters of hydrometeorological origin. The study presents strategies of civil protection and hydrometeo-rological risk management in the face of climate change. Analysis was carried out on programs on adaptation to climate change such as the National Strategy for Climate Change, the Special Program for Climate Change (pub-lic consultation draft), the guidelines for preparing State Programs of Action for Climate Change and Veracruz Program of Action against Climate Change (see Chap-ter VI). Also reviewed were the National Civil Protection and State Civil Protection Programs, concept papers, sci-entific articles and reports of public policy.

To reduce the economic and human costs, the de-sign and implementation of measures and strategies for adapting to climate change, with a long-term vision, is required in order to reduce vulnerability to extreme hy-drometeorological phenomena. Society and, to a greater extent, the population most vulnerable to extreme hy-drometeorological phenomena could benefit from civil protection strategies that help increase resilience to ex-treme rainfall and flooding and to reduce its impacts.

The communities of climate change and disaster risk management in Mexico are coordinated by differ-ent ministries that have to deal with common problems, such as ecological degradation and environmental se-curity, the former by SEMARNAT and the latter by the Interior Ministry (Secretaría de Gobernación, SEGOB). The main premise that guided the development of the study is: “reducing the risk of meteorological disasters is a fundamental requirement for adaptation to climate

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 157

change and vice versa.” It is becoming urgent to devel-op frameworks of reference and action to help to con-ceptually and methodologically link the communities of climate change and disaster risk management, and thus to reorganize decision-making. To this end, we analyzed the existing obstacles in both communities in order to subsequently consider opportunities and possibilities for articulation.

The main results of the study indicate that: the Natural Disaster Fund (Fondo de Desastres Naturales, FONDEN) is a financial support instrument for disas-ter-affected regions that can create conditions so that projects of the Disaster Prevention Fund (Fondo de Prevención de Desastres, FOPREDEN) can be more ef-ficient and effective. For example, support for the resto-ration of environmental sanitation and urban hydraulics

can be a first step for the optimal management of ex-treme rainfall. The same can be considered for the main-tenance of rural roads and highways. It is important to promote the synergy between FONDEN and the forest conservation efforts undertaken by the relevant bodies of the three levels of government, in terms of establish-ing strategies for information exchange and communica-tion on rural and urban areas and communities affected by extreme hydrometeorological phenomena and sup-ported by FONDEN (INE 2008g).

With regard to FOPREDEN, proposed actions of identification and risk reduction are clearly public poli-cy measures that reduce the risk of extreme hydrome-teorological phenomena in particular. Such is the case of early warning systems, and the integration of systems and infrastructure to improve emergency and disaster

Note: values in parenthesis represent the range of uncertaintySource: INE 2008e.

Table IV.9. Comparison of baseline cases of dengue and diarrhea with the estimate of cases projected to occur in 2030 with

climate change, under the A2 scenario of GHG emissions at the municipal level in Mexico.

Average baseline cases Cases attributed to climate change in 2030 under different MCGs

Percentage increase of cases with 95% Confi-dence Index

(1998 a 2005) ECHAM GFDL HADLEY ECHAM GFDL HADLEYDengue 19,716.25 813.6 1,623.4 851.4 4.13 (3.9, 4.4) 8.23 (7.9, 8.6) 4.32 (4.0, 4.6)

ADDs 8,818,921 431,982 421,401 426,173 4.90 (4.6, 5.2) 4.78 (4.5, 5.1) 4.83 (4.5, 5.1)

Figure IV.19. Average monthly precipitation at the weather station in Villahermosa, Tabasco.

Note: Blue circles denote flood events.Source: INE 2008f.

Villahermosa weather station

Years

Aug Sep Oct Nov

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Rain

fall

(mm

)

19 years

Hydraulic infrastructure

8 years ~1 year1,000

900800700600500400300200100

0

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158 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

Source: INE 2008f.

Figure IV.21. Flood vulnerability map in the state of Tabasco.

Figure IV.20. Methodology for trend analysis of extreme rainfall.

Source: INE 2008f.

Historical rainfall analysis

Physical geography

Geology

Geomorphology

Wetland location and

delimitation

Soils

Run-off

Adaptations

Costs of

inaction

Digital Land Model

CC scenariosModeling of rainfall quantity

and location

Thresholds

Infrastructure

Sedimentation

Historic rivers

Rainfall

Flooding zones

Watershed

delimitation

Current rivers

Vulnerability to extreme rainfall

Vulnerability of the state of Tabasco

Areas susceptible to floodingState limit

Gulf of Mexico

Guatemala

State of Veracruz

State of Chiapas

State of Campeche

State of

Oaxaca

TABASCO

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 159

responses. The issue of climate change, and the prior-ity attention currently given to it by the states and the Federal Public Administration, represents a valuable op-portunity for FOPREDEN to promote the development and implementation of hydrometeorological risk reduc-tion projects that consider climate variability and change as an extremely important variable, and is a great oppor-tunity for State Programs of Action for Climate Change (see Section 6.5.1) to promote lines of action that link projects of hydrometeorological risk reduction posed by the civil protection. Joint projects of adaptation to cli-mate change-reduction of the risk of extreme hydrome-teorological phenomena can benefit from financial sup-port from FOPREDEN.

4.3.11 Energy

In a technical study (INE 2007f) variations in the genera-tion of electricity from renewable sources (solar, mini-hy-draulic, wind and geothermal) were evaluated in the face of climate change impacts. The study revealed that the demand for domestic electricity consumption in Mexico would be at least 40% greater with climate change, to-wards the middle of this century, relative to current levels of consumption (Figure IV.22). This is attributed to: a) increase in the number of days with maximum tempera-tures, which prompts an increasing demand for air condi-tioning, even in regions that do not currently use it; and b) increased domestic consumption in urban areas, due to the presence of anomalously warm years.

The main results of this assessment, which extend to sources of conventional energy generation, are:

It is projected that in the North of Mexico there •would be a change in solar energy potential, which currently has an important availability in the region, while those regions with maximum levels of cloud (South and Southeast Mexico) will decrease in po-tential, especially in the rainy season (summer). This was estimated from the variations exhibited by the quantity of monthly median global radiation (Qg, in W/ m2). Under conditions of climate change, there may on average be a positive anomaly of solar ra-

diation by 2025 (Figure IV.23), while by 2050 this anomaly would be negative. In the case of thermoelectric power plants, climate •change, particularly temperature and humidity, could cause some variation in the efficiency and maximum power of these plants under extreme conditions in the summer. Periods of intense rainfall and floods directly affect •the operation of hydroelectric plants and increase maintenance and operating costs. Extreme hydrometeorological phenomena (hurri-•canes and cold fronts) would cause the installations in the Gulf of Mexico to reduce their operations in the presence of such phenomena. Also to be con-sidered are the annually increasing direct impacts on transmission lines. There are installations in coastal areas, such as the •thermoelectrical power plants Tuxpan II and III, which would be highly vulnerable to both floods and rising sea levels.

Climate change may affect the performance of en-ergy installations, due to increases in air temperature and sea level; and variations in the intensity of winds, rain-fall, relative humidity and solar radiation, among others. For example, the damage by Hurricane Emily to PEMEX in 2005 was estimated to be 4,484 million pesos and arose from the suspension of activities of the company for two days. It is therefore anticipated that these activi-ties could be vulnerable to climate change.

In these situations it is recommended to: a) review the design of installations; b) conduct feasibility studies to consider the variation of meteorological parameters under conditions of climate change; and c) have meteo-rological and climatological monitoring and forecasting to support the management of energy installations.

4.3.12 Tourism

Mexico is one of the main destinations for international tourism and is one of the most outstanding countries in terms of income generated from this activity. It is ex-pected to remain among the fifteen top countries in this

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160 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

sector, due to the economic input that said sector repre-sents (Nava 2008).

According to Nava, statistics of recent years show that beach destinations, particularly those most impor-tant for international tourism31 (Cancun, Cozumel and Los Cabos), are increasingly threatened by the effects of climate change. Coastal erosion in the Riviera Maya could be greater in the face of more intense extreme events (hurricanes), and could not be constantly remediated by bringing sand from other coastal areas, due to the nega-tive effects this would incur in nearby ecosystems. What happens in this region is a clear example of the need to insert considerations of the impacts of climate change in the planning and design of public policies to regulate the construction of hotels on coastal ecosystems and in dune areas at risk to climate change.

With regard to the increase in sea level, the degree of vulnerability in the region of Cancun and Cozumel is greater in comparison to Los Cabos (for further informa-tion revise section 4.3.2).

In an evaluation, it was identified that tourist desti-nations of northern Mexico, such as Los Cabos, La Paz, Loreto, Bahíaí de Los Ángeles, Puerto Peñasco, Guaymas, Mazatlán, La Riviera Nayarit and Bahía de Banderas, would exhibit impacts related to water availability since a critical

31 Refers specifically to foreign visitors who pass the border or who have entered the country directly to any of the cities or tourist des-tinations in the interior (SECTUR 2006).

pressure situation of the resource is estimated in climate change projections to 2030. This is in addition to the over-exploitation and salinization of aquifers (INE 2008c).

In the same study, an estimate was made of the eco-nomic impacts on the tourism sector, which projected losses caused by the reduced dynamism of this activity. These are estimated to be close to 5.8 billion pesos un-der the A2 scenario and 1.8 billion pesos under the B2 scenario, in the period 2008-2050. This was estimated based on the hypotheses proposed for scenarios A2 and B2, adjusted to the circumstances of Mexico.

The policy of clean beaches, water and energy sav-ings, and the awareness of the value of ecosystem ser-vices must be communicated and implemented in an improved way among tourists and tourism service pro-viders to turn this sector of the economy into an exam-ple of different sectors paticipating to keep these tourism destinations in Mexico.

4.3.13 The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico

To contribute to a better understanding of climate change, and its effects and implications from an economic per-spective, and to propose public policy options to cope with climate change, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público, SHCP) and SE-MARNAT, with financial support from the UK and the In-ter-American Development Bank, tasked the UNAM with

Table IV.10. Economic costs of the 2007 flood in Tabasco.

Source: INE 2008f.

Total per productive sector Total damage + losses (million pesos 2007)

Percentage

Agriculture 8,912.50 27.96

Other productive sectors 10,546.60 33.09

Total social sectors 5,973.56 18.74

Total Infrastructure 5,681.90 17.83

Environment 162.50 0.51

Women’s damage and losses 46.80 0.15

Emergency care 547.40 1.72

Grand Total 31,871.26 100.00

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Programs containing measures of adaptation to climate change 161

Figure IV.22. Electrical consumption per user (MWh/ yr) for various cities, projected for the climatologies: 2020’s, 2050’s

and 2080’s.

Source: INE 2007f.

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

MW

h/ye

ar

Agu

asca

lient

es

Chi

huah

ua

Mex

ical

i

Gua

dala

jara

Mon

terr

ey

Juár

ez

Reyn

osa

Lagu

na

Salti

llo

León

Tiju

ana

Dis

trito

Fed

eral

-Méx

ico

San

Luis

Poto

Mor

elia

Tolu

ca

Oax

aca

Aca

pulc

o

Pueb

la-T

laxc

ala

Can

cún

Que

réta

ro

Tuxt

la G

utié

rrez

Ver

acru

z

Cue

rnav

aca

Vill

aher

mos

a

Xal

apa

Mér

ida

Tam

pico

Current consumption

2020 consumption

2050 consumption

2080 consumption

preparing the study “The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico” (SEMARNAT, SHCP, 2009), circumscribed to the economic costs of climate change in Mexico. The study was conducted under the coordination of the Fac-ulty of Economics, UNAM, and drew on the experience and knowledge of leading Mexican researchers, as well as studies from national and international institutions.

One of the main conclusions of the study relates di-rectly to public policy:

The cost of effective and efficient action to combat climate change is much lower than the economic dam-age we can avoid and the potential for economic growth and development we can obtain. This means that deci-sive action and opportunity in this area is an excellent public investment. In the same study an evaluation was made of the costs of mitigating GHG emissions, which is described in section 5.6.1, of Chapter V.

The study on adaptation recognizes that:

1. Climate change has and will have significant and in-creasing impacts on patterns of change not previous-

ly experienced in the Mexican economy. The expect-ed impacts are accentuated in human and natural systems in which a relationship exists with climate, such as the agricultural and livestock husbandry sec-tor, the hydrological sector, the change in land use, tourism, infrastructure and health of the population, among others. There are also significant negative ef-fects that have no direct economic value but which are unacceptable, such as the loss of biodiversity. For Mexico, the economic consequences of climate change are certainly heterogeneous by region, and some of them could even temporarily show gains. However, estimates indicate that negative economic consequences outweigh the temporary gains in the long term and that there are limits to tolerance.

The summary of the study describes the estimated costs of inaction in the face of climate change for various sectors (agriculture, water, land use, biodi-versity and international tourism), in relation to cur-rent national GDP, and that of 2050 and 2100 under three scenarios of GHG emissions (A2, A1B and B1)

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162 Fourth National Communication of Mexico

and three rates of discount (0.5%, 2% and 4%).32 To cite an example, it is estimated that, for 2050, under the A2 scenario of GHG emissions, the water sector could lose 7.59%, 4.02% and 2.20% of GDP, considering a discount rate of 0.5%, 2 % and 4%, respectively; and for 2100, under the same scenario and discount rates, losses of 18.85%, 9.41% and 4.5% of GDP could be expected.

2. The available evidence shows that adaptation process-es, which are already underway in the country, are im-portant for reducing climate impacts, but will require strengthening to cope with projected climate limits.

3. Building a strategy for adaptation and mitigation of GHG emissions in Mexico includes the need to use different instruments continuously with a long-term

32 Discount rate: a financial measure that is used to determine the current value of a future payment.

vision. It is essential to recognize the importance of building a structure of relative prices consistent with sustainable development. A proper pricing structure is essential for controlling excessive consumption, for better management of resources and to support in-novation and technology diffusion.

Regarding this study, the head of the SHCP said that this work is expected to encourage greater awareness among Mexicans concerning the risks and consequences of climate change caused by humans, and can stimulate new research and lead to serious reflection regarding the range of options that governments have in order to face this phenomenon and turn it into an opportunity for sustainable development. He also indicated that some potential mechanisms to act in this regard are regula-tions and control standards; with direct investments in environmental infrastructure and in the rehabilitation of

Figure IV.23. Anomalies of monthly mean global radiation (Wm-2) under scenario A2 during April, in 2020’s.

Source: INE 2007f.

30

28

262422

2018

1614

1210

86

42

0-2

-4-6-8

-10

-12-14

-16-18-20

W/m^2

Anomaly

Scenario A2

April of 2020’s

30

25

20

15

-115 -110 -105 -100 -95 -90

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ecosystems; promoting public-private investments of an ecological nature; making use of the markets, through the removal of perverse subsidies; establishing taxes and charges in relation to environmental damage; pro-viding targeted subsidies and creating markets; guaran-teeing property rights with compensation programs, and tradable permits and rights; purchasing green products; establishing environmental investment and funds; and making payments for the generation of ecosystem ser-vices (Source: Federal Government press room).33

4.3.14 Intersectoral integration

Climate change is a phenomenon which causes and con-sequences are linked to virtually all natural systems, so-cio-economic sectors and population groups. It is there-fore garnering cross-sectoral attention in both senses: horizontal and vertical. The former, among agencies of similar responsibility and hierarchy, such as Ministries of State; the latter, between bodies that, with or without a hierarchical relationship between them, can be consid-ered parts of the same group, such as the three leves of government. It is essential to consider the role of orga-nized society, with a focus on gender, and of the private sector; therefore, the development of mechanisms for social participation is beginning in areas of discussion and definition of policies related to climate change.

In intersectoral coordination and planning for adap-tation, water resources management and risk manage-ment could be considered as cross-sectoral axes, since they affect the functioning and policies of other areas such as energy, tourism, health, food security, and the conservation of nature, among others. At the same time, it is important to consider the relationships between dif-ferent sectors; for example, to cope with disasters, the health sector interrelates with that of communications and transportation, energy and water, since it must fore-see damage to highways and roads, or the lack of basic services like water and electricity, which can reduce the care capacity of the medical services, in the face of cli-mate variability and change.

33 http://www.presidencia.gob.mx/prensa/?contenido=45541.

An essential element in addressing climate change is the allocation of resources specifically aimed at develop-ing and implementing concrete action plans and directly focused on strengthening adaptation capacities, mecha-nisms and programs, coupled with a continuous process of capacities building among the stakeholders and insti-tutions involved.

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