IUU fishing for toothfishIUU fishing for toothfish in the Antarctic: in the Antarctic:

COBECOS MODELLINGCOBECOS MODELLING

John Pearce, David AgnewJohn Pearce, David AgnewMRAGMRAG

Antisocial behaviourAntisocial behaviour

Photos courtesy of Australian Customs

History of illegal interestHistory of illegal interest

Kerguelen Island(France)

Heard and Macdonald Islands(Australia)

Indian Ocean -Area 58

Crozet Islands(France)

Prince Edward and Marion(South Africa)Ob and

Lena banks

Atlantic - Area 48

Pacific Ocean - Area 88

South Georgia

Rhine and North banks

1991

Apr 1996

Dec 1996

Jan 2002

World catches of toothfishWorld catches of toothfish

010,000

20,00030,000

40,00050,000

60,00070,000

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Cat

ch (

t)

IUU CCAMLR Legal CCAMLR Outside

Catch ratesCatch rates

47

51

57

41

87

81

47

51

57

41

87

81

0

2

4

6

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

t/d

ay

Scotia Falk_NFOCZ

CDS reported 57

CDS reported 51

Actual 51

Assume 3.5 x 40 day Assume 3.5 x 40 day fishing trips/yearfishing trips/year

02468

1012

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

CP

UE

(t/

da

y)

587 586 5851/2

Catch ValueCatch Value

Effect of CDS on valueEffect of CDS on value

• 2000: – 10% for non-2000: – 10% for non-certifiedcertified

• 2001,2002: – 20%2001,2002: – 20%

• 2003-2004: – 10%2003-2004: – 10%0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

tonn

es

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

$Total catch $/t H&G

Effect of boycott on demand: 2002 Effect of boycott on demand: 2002 2004 2004

• 27% drop in production27% drop in production

• 15% drop in US imports (frozen)15% drop in US imports (frozen)

• Trade 57% Japan, 36% USA, 7% EuropeTrade 57% Japan, 36% USA, 7% Europe

Data availableData available

• IUU activity (n. IUU activity (n. vessels)vessels)

• IUU activity IUU activity (catch – declared (catch – declared out of zone)out of zone)

• Also available: n. Also available: n. arrests, n. arrests, n. sightingssightings

• Not yet available: Not yet available: n. days inspection n. days inspection each yeareach year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

est

. IU

U v

ess

els

587

586

5851

5852

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

catc

h t

onnes

IUU 58

CDS: high seas 51, 57, 47

lack and sant

Probability of arrest; finesProbability of arrest; fines

• Probability of arrest has Probability of arrest has increased with increasing increased with increasing MCSMCS

• f: ship loss ~ $1.2Mf: ship loss ~ $1.2M

0

0.10.2

0.30.4

0.50.6

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

pro

ba

bili

ty o

f arr

est

587,586 5851 5852

Model resultsModel results

CCAMLR 58.7,58.6,58.5.1,58.5.2: 1997 - 2004

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-1 0 1 2 3

net profit from IUU ($M)

num

ber

of I

UU

ve

ssel

s ac

tive

-0.50

0.51

1.52

2.53

3.5

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

IUU

pro

fit (

$M

/ye

ar)

587 586 5851 5852

Net profit - IUUNet profit - IUU Effect on number of IUU vesselsEffect on number of IUU vessels

Model resultsModel results

-0.50

0.51

1.52

2.53

3.5

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

IUU

pro

fit (

$M

/ye

ar)

587 586 5851 5852

-0.50

0.51

1.52

2.53

3.5

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

IUU

pro

fit (

$M

/ye

ar)

587 586 5851 5852

Without CDSWithout CDS Without surveillance/controlWithout surveillance/control

Early History - South Early History - South GeorgiaGeorgia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

tonn

es IU

U

Area 48 Area 58

• Early fishery: no patrols, increase in IUUEarly fishery: no patrols, increase in IUU• Increase in IUU, arrests, sudden increase in opportunity costs compared to Increase in IUU, arrests, sudden increase in opportunity costs compared to

Indian Ocean sectorIndian Ocean sector• Departure of IUU fleet over 6 months Oct 1995 – Feb 1996Departure of IUU fleet over 6 months Oct 1995 – Feb 1996• Return of IUU fleet in 1999 when CPUE in Indian ocean had dropped and patrols Return of IUU fleet in 1999 when CPUE in Indian ocean had dropped and patrols

in indian ocean had increased – balanced opportunity cost in South Georgia and in indian ocean had increased – balanced opportunity cost in South Georgia and Indian OceanIndian Ocean

Data AvailableData Available

• Estimates of Estimates of encounter rateencounter rate

• Detailed patrol Detailed patrol vessel vessel surveillance surveillance datadata

• CPUE dataCPUE data• Estimates of IUU Estimates of IUU

activityactivity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

FP

V %

day

s in

SG

zone

Modelling opportunitiesModelling opportunities

• Model precise response relationships Model precise response relationships in the early IUU fisheryin the early IUU fishery

• Understand the balance of private Understand the balance of private benefits for IUU in patrolled vs benefits for IUU in patrolled vs unpatrolled areasunpatrolled areas

• Understand the relationships in the Understand the relationships in the later fishery (Indian Ocean) to see if later fishery (Indian Ocean) to see if relationships have changedrelationships have changed