IUMI 2010 ZURICH · 2013. 2. 23. · UNCTAD and WTO, 2010. ... Product composition of the fall in...

12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

IUMI 2010 ZURICH

12 – 15 September

Shipping and global trade:

A review of major developments

Hassiba BenamaraUNCTAD

212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

CONTENTS

I. Macro factors

Economic growth and merchandise trade

II. Shipping and seaborne trade

Demand: seaborne trade

Supply: fleet developments

Freight rates

III. Emerging challenges and some relevant issues to monitor

Environment

Energy

Other

312 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

I. Economic growth and merchandise trade

412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

UNCTAD and WTO, 2010

The first and deepest contraction (-1.9%)…

… in global output since the 1930s

World GDP (real), 1971-2010

512 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Broad-based and varied speed

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

United States

EU

Japan

India

China

South Africa

Brazil

RussianFederation

World GDP (% annual growth), 2004-2010

UNCTAD, 2010

612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

The “Great Trade Collapse”

GDP

Exports

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79

1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

2010

per cent annual growth

World GDP and trade (real), 1971-2010

UNCTAD and WTO, 2010

712 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Adverse trade shocks across regions

-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

WORLD

North America

European Union (27)

Developed Asia (Japan & Israel)

Africa

Developing America

Developing Asia

Western Asia

China

Transition Economies

ImportsExports

UNCTAD , 2010

World merchandise trade (real), 2009

812 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

An unprecedented trade contraction

Merchandise exports dropped about 7 times more rapidly thanglobal GDP (elasticity ≈ 2 in 60s and 70s and 3.4 in 90s).UNCTAD estimate for 1971-2010 ≈ 2.5.

Demand shock and synchronized drop.

Multiplier effect:Product composition of the fall in demand (e.g.

consumer goods and durables, higher income elasticity).Trade in goods drops faster than trade in services which

account for a larger share of GDP.Globalised production and increased trade in parts and

components. Deepening and widening of global supply chains.Limited trade finance (in addition to demand shock).

912 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

BUT…… there are signs of recovery in

economic indicators…

1012 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Business confidence is improving…

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2007

m1

2007

m3

2007

m5

2007

m7

2007

m9

2007

m11

2008

m1

2008

m3

2008

m5

2008

m7

2008

m9

2008

m11

2009

m1

2009

m3

2009

m5

2009

m7

2009

m9

2009

m11

2010

m1

2010

m3

2010

m5

World Advanced economies Emerging economies

IMF, WEO Update, July 2010

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, 2007-2010


…so does consumer confidence…

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2007

m1

2007

m3

2007

m5

2007

m7

2007

m9

2007

m11

2008

m1

2008

m3

2008

m5

2008

m7

2008

m9

2008

m11

2009

m1

2009

m3

2009

m5

2009

m7

2009

m9

2009

m11

2010

m1

2010

m3



Retail sales, 2007-2010


…and industrial production

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2007

m1

2007

m2

2007

m3

2007

m4

2007

m5

2007

m6

2007

m7

2007

m8

2007

m9

2007

m10

2007

m11

2007

m12

2008

m1

2008

m2

2008

m3

2008

m4

2008

m5

2008

m6

2008

m7

2008

m8

2008

m9

2008

m10

2008

m11

2008

m12

2009

m1

2009

m2

2009

m3

2009

m4

2009

m5

2009

m6

2009

m7

2009

m8

2009

m9

2009

m10

2009

m11

2009

m12

2010

m1

2010

m2

2010

m3

2010

m4


Industrial production, 2007-2010



GDP growth turned positive in Q2-2009…

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2010

Q1


World GDP (% annual growth), 2007-2010

…UNCTAD expects GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2010


World exports forecast to grow…80

9010

011

012

013

014

015

0

2007

m1

2007

m3

2007

m5

2007

m7

2007

m9

2007

m11

2008

m1

2008

m3

2008

m5

2008

m7

2008

m9

2008

m11

2009

m1

2009

m3

2009

m5

2009

m7

2009

m9

2009

m11

2010

m1

2010

m3


Merchandise exports, 2007-2010


…by + 9.5% in 2010, 7.5% in developed economies; 11% ROW (developing and EIT)


Commodity prices are also rising

Commodity price indices (actual and forecast, 2000=100), 2000-2011

World Bank, 2010


Longer term outlook and a new global design

Major industrialized countries– Twenty years up to 2009: +2.2%– Next twenty years forecast: +1.8%

Major developing countries– Twenty years up to 2009: +6.3%– Next twenty years forecast: +5.9%

World average– Twenty years up to 2009: +2.9%– Next twenty years forecast: +3.5%

World exports (tons):- Expected to double in the next 20 years.

Source: IHS-Fairplay, as presented to IAME 2010, Lisbon, July 2010


II. Shipping and seaborne trade


Unsheltered from shocks in the wider economy…

Year Oil Main bulks a Other dry cargoTotal

(all cargoes)

1970 1 442 448 676 2 566

1980 1 871 796 1 037 3 704

1990 1 755 968 1 285 4 008

2000 2 163 1 288 2 533 5 984

2006 2 698 1 849 3 135 7 682

2007 2 747 1 972 3 265 7 983

2008 2 732 2 079 3 399 8 210

2009b 2 649 2 102 3 092 7 843

UNCTAD RMT, 2010

-3%+1.1%

-9% -4.5%

World seaborne trade (tons), 1970-2009

…seaborne trade contracted (-4.5%) in 2009


All shipping segments negatively affected…

UNCTAD, RMT 2010; Clarkson Shipping Review (spring 2010), Dry Bulk Outlook, August, 2010, and Container Intelligence Monthly, August, 2010

2009 2010f

Iron ore 8% 6%Coal 1% 9%Grain -2% 2%Bauxite and Alumina/Phosphate Rock -27% 18%Major dry bulk 1% 7%

Minor dry bulks -13% 9%

Other dry cargo -9% 6%of which container -9% 11%

Oil -3% 3%Total seaborne trade (tons) -4.5% 5.2%

Seaborne trade (% change), per cargo type, 2009-2010

…but major dry bulk cargo held strong; China factor


2009, a dramatic year in the history of container shipping (-9.4%)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mill

ion

TE

Us

-15

-10

-5

-

5

10

15

20

Perc

enta

ge

UNCTAD, based on Clarkson Research Services and Drewry Consultants

Global container trade, 1990-2010


Fleet developments


Growth in ship supply capacity continues…

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Other 31 45 49 58 75 49 92 Container 11 20 26 44 64 98 169 General cargo 116 106 103 104 101 92 108 Dry bulk 186 232 235 262 276 321 457 Oil Tanker 339 261 246 268 282 336 450

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

World fleet by vessel type in million dwt, 1980-2010

…1.27 billion dwt at the beginning of 2010, 7% increase

UNCTAD, based on IHS- Fairplay data


Record new deliveries and an impressive orderbook

Oil tankers

Dry bulk

General cargo

Container ships

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

12 / 2

000

03 / 2

001

06 / 2

001

09 / 2

001

12 / 2

001

03 / 2

002

06 / 2

002

09 / 2

002

12 / 2

002

03 / 2

003

06 / 2

003

09 / 2

003

12 / 2

003

03 / 2

004

06 / 2

004

09 / 2

004

12 / 2

004

03 / 2

005

06 / 2

005

09 / 2

005

12 / 2

005

03 / 2

006

06 / 2

006

09 / 2

006

12 / 2

006

03 / 2

007

06 / 2

007

09 / 2

007

12 / 2

007

03 / 2

008

06 / 2

008

09 / 2

008

12 / 2

008

03 / 2

009

06 / 2

009

09 / 2

009

12 / 2

009

World tonnage on order, 2000-2010 (000’ dwt)

UNCTAD, based on IHS- Fairplay data


Wider supply and demand imbalance…

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Demand 10.7 2.4 10.5 11.6 13.4 10.6 11.2 11.4 4.3 -9.1 11.1Supply 7.8 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 10.5 13.6 11.8 10.8 5.1 8.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010a

UNCTAD, based on Clarkson Container Intelligence Monthly

Supply and demand in container shipping, 2000-2010

…as illustrated by container shipping


Freight rates


D/S determine freight rates…

The year 2009 was a bleak year for freight rates in all

market segments.

By the end of 2009, rates in all sectors have recovered from

their earlier lows albeit still significantly below their pre-

crisis levels.

Freight rates for 2010 were volatile and future prospects

remain uncertain.


Baltic Tanker Indices, 2005-2010

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-

05

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-0

5

Sep-

05

Nov-

05

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-

06

Nov-

06

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-

07

Nov-

07

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Nov-

08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-

09

Nov-

09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Dirty Index Clean Index

UNCTAD , based on Lloyd’s Shipping Economist data

…tanker rates fell with falling oil demand


Dry cargo freight indices, 2004-2010

UNCTAD, based on ISL-Shipping Statistics and Market Review

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Jan-

04

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-0

4

Sep-

04

Nov

-04

Jan-

05

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-0

5

Sep-

05

Nov

-05

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-

06

Nov

-06

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-

07

Nov

-07

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-

09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

Tramp Trip

…dry bulk rates supported by demand from China…


Container freight rates, 2005-2009

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

q12005

q22005

q32005

q42005

q12006

q22006

q32006

q42006

q12007

q22007

q32007

q42007

q12008

q22008

q32008

q42008

q12009

q22009

q32009

q42009

Asia–USA USA–Asia Europe–Asia Asia–Europe USA–Europe Europe–USA

UNCTAD, based on Containerisation International data

… container rates supported by a series of counter-measures


Summary of key points (1)

2009, a record in history.

Prospects are improving; recovery varying in speed, driven byemerging developing economies (e.g. Asia).

Various forecasts for 2010/2011 (UNCTAD, IMF, WB, IHS-Fairplay, …); all positive.

World merchandise trade is forecast to grow in 2010 and2011(e.g. WTO and World Bank).

World seaborne trade also forecast to grow in 2010 and 2011.


BUT…… the outlook remains fragile in view of various downside risks…


Summary of key points (2)

Sustainability of recovery, strength and shape (V, U or W)?

Public debts

Unemployment and bank lending

Stimulus packages (duration/end)

Is observed trade recovery driven by new demand?

Supply-side pressures

Known and unknown crises


III. Emerging challenges and issues to monitor

Energy: access, security and prices

Climate change: mitigation and adaptation

Seafaring crisis?

Supply chain security and piracy

Other global crises: e.g. food, water, financial…

Geopolitics

Other ?


Focus on two emerging global challenges

Climate change & energy: interconnected Climate change mitigation action has implications for ship

design, engines, fuel systems, operations, services,management, value, etc.

Indirect implications through changes in demand for shippingservices. E.g. climate induced changes in trade structure,flows and patterns through impacts on sectors such as energyproduction and consumption, agriculture and food products,demography and human settlement, etc.

Climate change mitigation and adaptation require energy.However, there are signs of a looming energy crisis. Shippingis heavily reliant on oil for propulsion and not yet in a positionto effectively and widely adopt substitutes.


Conclusion?


…and publications by UNCTAD, including on oil prices and maritime freight rates, maritime transport and the climate change challenge, as well as supply chainsecurity are available at:

UNCTAD Trade Logistics Branchwww.unctad.org/ttl/legal

UNCTAD’s annual Review of Maritime Transport and quarterly Transport Newsletter are available at: www.unctad.org/transportnews

Addition information…

http://www.unctad.org/ttl/legal�

http://www.unctad.org/transportnews�

IUMI 2010 ZURICH · 2013. 2. 23. · UNCTAD and WTO, 2010. ... Product composition of the fall in...

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