IUCN : World Conservation Congress Global Synthesis ...
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1 IUCN : World Conservation Congress IUCN : World Conservation Congress Global Synthesis Workshop Global Synthesis Workshop on River Basin Management on River Basin Management Balancing the Water Uses in River Basins Balancing the Water Uses in River Basins How do we address the Challenge? How do we address the Challenge? M.Gopalakrishnan, Secretary General, ICID M.Gopalakrishnan, Secretary General, ICID Reaction on the Statement • Optimisation of River Basin Management will not lead to the improvements for the Environment? – Question is framed in a tricky manner ! – Answer is Yes if constrained optimisation is used after a fair assessment of interests unquantifiable and No if a purely mathematical solution is proposed! Indicators for Environmental attributes are to be more scientific ….? • What we need is some quick tools for shaping future policies when river basin management is to be tackled. • Integrate all aspects of relevance which is fairly well known in such an exercise; land, water & livelihood…
Transcript of IUCN : World Conservation Congress Global Synthesis ...
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IUCN : World Conservation CongressIUCN : World Conservation CongressGlobal Synthesis Workshop Global Synthesis Workshop on River Basin Managementon River Basin Management
Balancing the Water Uses in River BasinsBalancing the Water Uses in River BasinsHow do we address the Challenge?How do we address the Challenge?
M.Gopalakrishnan, Secretary General, ICIDM.Gopalakrishnan, Secretary General, ICID
Reaction on the Statement• Optimisation of River Basin Management will not lead to
the improvements for the Environment?– Question is framed in a tricky manner !– Answer is Yes if constrained optimisation is used after a fair
assessment of interests unquantifiable and No if a purely mathematical solution is proposed! Indicators for Environmental attributes are to be more scientific ….?
• What we need is some quick tools for shaping future policies when river basin management is to be tackled.
• Integrate all aspects of relevance which is fairly well known insuch an exercise; land, water & livelihood…
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Global Challenge on Water Use
• Water for food• Water for People• Water for NatureThe Dialogue addresses mainly the issue of
addressing the water for Food Security and Environmental Sustainability but People Sector is also important; we can factor them
Rainfed Agriculture
Irrigated Agriculture
WHERE IS THIS FOOD COMING FROM?World Irrigated Area and Crop Production
Contributes 40% Crop Production and Employs 30% of Population in Agriculture
Contributes 60% of total Crop Production and Employs 70% of Population in Agriculture
272 Mha (18%)
1226 Mha (82%)
Total Arable and Permanent Cropped area of the world = 1497 MhaArea irrigated in ICID Member Countries = 262 Mha
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Present Water Withdrawal Present Water Withdrawal and Consumptionand Consumption
70.1%
20.0%
9.9%
Withdrawal
93.5%
3.8%2.7%
Consumption
Agriculture Industry Municipal
- Globalization, world food trade and agriculture subsidies- Water scarcity- Climate change- Waterlogging and soil salinity- Most arable land is already under cultivation
- Deterioration of water quality
- Decline of public financial allocations
- Lack of incentives in water savings & drawals - farmers
- Fragmentation of management of water
Challenges in the 21Challenges in the 21stst CenturyCentury
- Water use and energy efficiency
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(A) ROLE OF WATER RESOURCE
(B) INTERVENTIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY
(C) COUNTRY ISSUES
(D) ROLE OF RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
(E) ROLE OF BIOTECHNOLOGY & GM FOODS
(F) WTO & FOOD SECURITY
Broad areas identified by TF 2 ICID – action..
Evolution of World Water Shortage in 100 YearsEvolution of World Water Shortage in 100 Years
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Food Surplus and Deficit at a glanceFood Surplus and Deficit at a glance
0
200400600800
10001200
1400160018002000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04* 2004-05#
Wheat Coarse grainsRice (milled) All cereals (incl. milled rice)Developing countries Developed countries
* Estimated # Forecast
WORLD PRODUCTION TREND - RECENT
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WORLD CEREAL UTILIZATION – RECENT TREND
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04* 2004-05#
Wheat Coarse grains Rice (milled)All cereals Developing countries Developed countries
* Estimated # Forecast
787.6766.7766.4767.1751.1Developed countries
1196.91190.81165.51162.71145.5Developing countries
1984.51957.51931.91929.81896.5All cereals
412.5407.1406.1404.5402.9Rice (milled)
962.6951.1921.4926.1904.1Coarse grains
609.4599.3604.5599.2589.5Wheat
2004-05#2003-04*2002-032001-022000-01
TREND IN WORLD CEREAL UTILIZATION
1.4%
0.5%
2.7%
* Estimated # Forecast
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WORLD TREND IN CEREAL UTILIZATION
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04* 2004-05#
Developing countries Developed countries
Change0.5%
Change2.7%
* Estimated # Forecast
TREND IN WORLD CEREAL STOCK
142.7123.7141.7168162Developed countries
259.5283.5336.6404.4437.2Developing countries
402.1407.3478.3572.5599.2All cereals
97102.7117.5141.5147.9Rice (milled)
145.1144.9161.8197.1207.8Coarse grains
160159.7199233.9243.5Wheat
2004-05#2003-04*2002-032001-022000-01
15.3%
-8.5%
-1.3%
-5.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Change~
* Estimated # Forecast
~ Change 2004/2005 over 2003/2004
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-10
-505
1015202530354045
2003-04* Change~
Wheat Coarse grains Rice (milled)All cereals Developing countries Developed countries
~ Change 2004/2005 over 2003/2004* Estimated
WORLD CEREAL STOCK
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Pri
ce in
US$
/to
n
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Soybean
Developments in Crop PricesDevelopments in Crop Prices
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ICID’s BHIWA ModelAcknowledge that basically • River Basin is a better way to address the
Challenges and Decision Making• Precipitation as the main source (and not the river
flow or aquifer recharge)• capturing both land and water uses of River Basin
is important; ET management is the best way to appreciate the issues
• potential development strategy through policy intervention, either for improving river flows for ecology and Scenario Development help the cause
Trade-ExportAdequateAdequateLowHighSurplusDeveloped Countries
Investment, Develop Water Resource, Improve Efficiency, Population Control
EvolvingMediumHighLow and Upper Middle
SufficientEmerging Developing Countries
Aid, Investment, Develop Water Resources, Improve Efficiency, Population Control
DeficientLowHighLowDeficient2Least Developed Countries
StrategiesGovernanceStatus of WRD
PopulationEconomic Status (GNI)
Food Self Sufficiency
Category of Countries1
ICID Strategies for Global Food Security
1 Categories of countries arranged from Deficiency to surplus food self-sufficiency.
2 Some countries, like oil exporting West Asian countries and Japan may not be food self-sufficient but they can practice virtual water – food import, due to their high GNI and still be food secure.
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Mexico
Egypt
Pakistan
China
India
Phase 1 (India, China)Phase 2 (Mexico, Egypt, Pakistan)
CPSP Participating Countries
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+
Nature29%Agriculture
53%
River Flow16%
People0.7%
Export1.5%
Rainfall91%
Sabarmati River BasinIndia(1995)
Import9%
+
+Rainfall
99%
BrahmaniRiver BasinIndia(2000)
Import1%
River Flow35%
People0.4%
Nature42.1%
Agriculture22.7%
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Selection of Water Stress Indicators – Relevance ?
- Large ground water use as in India, rise the need for indicators for both surface and G.W resources
- WSI proposed by Alcamo based on withdrawals out of which a substantial part may return. Multiple re-uses possibility ? How should we address it better?
- Can an absolute and overriding priority for environmental water requirement (Smakhtin’s) work in many water deficit basins?
- ICID attempted to address the complex issue by objective modelling and the present efforts is just a beginning in this direction…. More to follow ….
Suggested IndicatorsFour indicators proposed for describing state of water resources
Indicator 1: Withdrawals/total input to surface waterIndicator 2: Returns/total input to surface waterIndicator 3: Withdrawals/total recharge to ground
waterIndicator 4: Returns/total recharge to ground water
Indicators 1&3- depict quantitative stress due to withdrawalsIndicators 2&4- depict hazard to water quality
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Basin grouping by selected indicatorsClass description Value of indicator Basin
a) very high stress Indicator 1>0.8 Pennar
b) high stress 0.4 < Indicator 1<0.8 Cauvery
c) Moderate stress 0.2 < Indicator 1<0.4 Indus, Ganga, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi, Tapi, Sabarmati
d) low stress Indicator 1<0.2 Brahmaputra, Godavari, Brahmani
e) low stress Indicator 2 < 0.05 All basins, in good
f) moderate stress 0.05 < Indicator 2 < 0.1 Cauvery, Tapi, Sabarmati, Pennar
g) very highly stressed Indicator 3>0.7 Sabarmati
through withdrawals
h) highly stressed 0.4<Indicator3<0.7 Indus, Ganga, Subarnarekha
through withdrawals
i) moderately stressed 0.2<Indicator3<0.4 Mahanadi, Godavari, Krishna, Pennar, Cauvery, Tapi, Narmada, Mahi
j) under very high threat Indicator 4>0.8 None
k) under high threat 0.4<Indicator 4<0.8 Indus, Ganga, Subarnarekha, Krishna, Pennar, Cauvery, Sabarmati
under moderate threat 0.2<Indicator 4<0.4 Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Godavari, Tapi, Narmada, Mahi, Brahmani
ICID - IAH CPSP Study : Pt. 4
Surface withdrawals
Surface water quality
Groundwater withdrawals
Groundwater quality
Integrated River Basin PlanningIntegrated River Basin Planning
• Feed the world’s growing population• Improve the standard of living and environmental conditions
in the rural area• Develop and manage land and water in a sustainable way
during the coming decades especially in developing countries
• Develop links between irrigation, drainage and flood protection, and
• Links of food security, rural development and livelihoodensuring environmental protection to maximum extent possible
• Implement basin wide planning for integrated development and management
• Optimisation model + dialogue should help the best for all
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India Case Study -- Indicators• Surface water resources
0.040.1420.617Brahmani14
0.090.420.77Sabarmati13
00.152013Mahi12
0.020.147151Narmada11
0.060.224118Tapi10
0.070.6819228Cauvery9
0.141717Pennar8
0.030.2626399Krishna7
0.020.17213126Godavari6
0.020.2613150Mahanadi5
00.334--12Subarnarekha4
00.02121633Brahmaputra3
0.040.2814619525Ganga2
0.020.23423185Indus1
Returns/ Input(I2)
Withdrawal/Input(I1)
Total with-
drawal109m3
Total returns109m3
Total input
109m3BasinS. No
• For Ground water resourcesIndia Case Study – Indicators… contd
0.30.11 11.56Brahmani14
0.540.87425Sabarmati13
0.220.22229Mahi12
0.270.274415Narmada11
0.330.33339Tapi10
0.590.3681322Cauvery9
0.560.22259Pennar8
0.460.27101737Krishna7
0.310.24121549Godavari6
0.390.266923Mahanadi5
0.750.5234Subarnarekha4
0.210.062733Brahmaputra3
0.460.47118115251Ganga2
0.690.6293348Indus1
Return to input (ratio)
Withdrawal input to (ratio)
Total withdrawal
109m3
Total return109m3
Total input109m3Basin
S. No
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Findings of Extrapolation• Inferences drawn from Sabarmati assessments are
of much relevance to Pennar, Cauvery, Indus, Ganga, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi and Tapi in regard to surface water
• Ground water problems of Indus, Ganga, Subarnarekha, Krishna, Pennar and Cauvery have similarity with Sabarmati
• Problems of Brahmani resulting out of the high flows and low use of ground water have similar implications for Brahmaputra and Godavari
ICID - IAH CPSP Study : Pt. 4
• Nature sector consumes major part of the primary resource ( rainwater ).
• Consumptive use under nature sector is expected to increase significantly in future due to the expansion of forest area. This in turn would tend to reduce reduce river flow. Part of this decrease can however be restored through better soil and water management.
• Due to abundant surface water resources almost entire irrigated agriculture including fisheries is presently dependent on surface water resources.
• Groundwater use is presently restricted to D & I sector. There exists a huge potential for groundwater development in this basin.
• Surface withdrawals constitute a small fraction of available supplies and seems to be constrained by availability of cultivable land.
Assessment for Qiantang basin - Main findings
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