ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet · Internet users Mobile penetration Internet...

ITU Internet Reports 2004: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetThe Portable Internetwww.itu.int/portableinternet

ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 2

New ITU report (6New ITU report (6thth edition in series)edition in series)Table of ContentsTable of Contents

1. Introduction2.Portable Internet technologies3.Market trends4.Policy and regulation5.A tool for bridging the digital divide6.The future of portable Internet technologies7.The information society and human factorsStatistical tables220 pages

RELEASE DATE: 6 September 2004


The Portable InternetThe Portable Internet

Mobility

Speed

Broadband

WLAN

IMT -2000

Market opportunity for new wireless

technologies

Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet.

A new market opportunity, A new market opportunity, situated between the high situated between the high

speeds of fixedspeeds of fixed--line line broadband and the high broadband and the high

mobility of 3Gmobility of 3G


Advanced wireless technologiesAdvanced wireless technologies

Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet.

Long Range

• IMT -2000 (3G)

• WiMax -IEEE 802.16

• IEEE 802.20

• HiperMAN

• Satellite

• HAPS/LAPS

• LMDS

• MMDS

Medium Range

• WLAN

• Wi-Fi -IEEE 802.11b

• IEEE 802.11a

• IEEE 802.11g

• IEEE 802.11i

• Free space optics

• HiperLAN2

•Ultra wideband

Short Range

• Bluetooth

• RFID

•ZigBee


Portable Internet characteristicsPortable Internet characteristics

! Portable" Based on advanced wireless

technologies, including 3G mobile and Wireless LAN

! High-Speed" Providing speeds of at least

256 kbit/s up to >50 Mbit/s! Large Storage

" Multi-gigabyte storage capacity allowing storage of movies, music, files etc

! Everything over IP" Allowing digital data exchange

between services and apps

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

1994 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 20030

5

10

15

20

25Mobile subscribersInternet usersMobile penetrationInternet penetration

Users (millions) and penetration per 100 pop.

“Virtually all of the growth in the global telecoms sector over the past decade has come from mobile communications and the Internet”


The Market OpportunityThe Market Opportunity

Note: Each dot represents one economy. A log scale is used.

Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet. 0.01

0.1

1

10

100

10000.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

Mobile penetration

Fixe

d pe

netr

atio

n

A. High fixed/Low mobile12 economies with 197.2 million inhabitants

B. High/high116 + 3.3 bn

C. Low/low73 + 2.6 bn

D. Low fixed/high mobile:

14 economies with 156.8 m inhabitants

Development path of 1980s




FixedFixed--line broadband: Top 15line broadband: Top 15

0 5 10 15 20 25

Norway

Finland

USA

Singapore

Sweden

Switzerland

Netherlands

Japan

Belgium

Denmark

Taiwan, China

Iceland

Canada

HK, China

Korea (Rep.)

DSLCable ModemsOther

Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 1 January 2004Source:

ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet.


3G mobile (IMT3G mobile (IMT--2000)2000)

Estimated total at 30 June 2004 = 14.9 million

CDMA 1xEV-DO subscribers

W-CDMA subscribers

Korea 1xEV-DO, 53.7%Other EVDO, 1.0%

Korea, W-CDMA0.3%

Italy, 6.7%

UK, 3.7%

HK, China, 0.7%

Other WCDMA, 2.0%

Japan, 31.8%

Estimated total at 30 June 2004 = 103 million

Korea, 21.8%

Japan, 14.3%

Rest of the world, 63.9%

CDMA 1x subscribers Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet.

By the middle of 2004, there were 118 million

3G subscribers worldwide


WiMAX DevelopmentWiMAX Development! WiMAX equipment should appear in three

stages:

Outdoor mountedEarly 2005 Indoor installed

Late 2005Built into devices

2006Source: Intel


! Long range" Technologies such as

WiMax (IEEE 802.16a) can transport large amounts of data over long distances. WiMax should be able to carry a 70 Mbit/s connection over 50 km.

! Short range" WLAN technologies such

as Wi-Fi (IEEE 802.11b) can spread the connection over a short distance from the “landing spot” of a long-range connection.

“One wireless technology to reach remote areas, another to share One wireless technology to reach remote areas, another to share the the connection once itconnection once it’’s theres there””

The long and short of The long and short of WiMAX and WiWiMAX and Wi--FiFi


The portable Internet and The portable Internet and multimediamultimedia

! Change in the way we think about streaming content "Less emphasis on video-on-demand"More emphasis on one-to-many broadcasting

via satellite to portable devices

Japan and Korea’s new digital media band satellite will beam 40 Korean and 70 Japanese TV channels to mobile phones and PDAs


UltraUltra--wide bandwide bandNew technology to allow devices to communicate at high speeds, New technology to allow devices to communicate at high speeds, across large frequency swaths, but at very low power.across large frequency swaths, but at very low power.


Mesh networksMesh networksMesh networks could drastically improve the reach and bandwidth Mesh networks could drastically improve the reach and bandwidth of of wireless networks by employing all users as nodes to pass traffiwireless networks by employing all users as nodes to pass traffic.c.

Source: Nokia


ZigBee ZigBee –– micro networksmicro networks


Broadband pricesBroadband prices

32.9731.5031.2130.6130.1229.57

27.7127.7126.9226.6426.0726.0525.3825.3025.0025.0024.7723.9323.58

21.7121.1321.01

19.3918.68

17.4316.78

14.7714.0813.64

9.66

2 562 564 0 02 5651210 2 410 0 05122 565123 0 05126 4 02 565122 565122 0 4 82 565122 563 8 42 56150 051210 2 42 565122 56512

0 10 20 30 40

Morocco 30Barbados 29

New Zealand 28Mexico 27

French Guiana 26Slovenia 25Germany 24

Netherlands 23Senegal 22Estonia 21

Brazil 20Malaysia 19

Hong Kong, China 18Greece 17Ukraine 16Cyprus 15

Czech Republic 14Korea (Rep.) 13

Israel 12Sri Lanka 11Australia 10

Croatia 9Taiw an, China 8Macao, China 7

Belarus 6Japan 5

Slovak Republic 4Jordan 3

Lithuania 2China 1

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500Broadband monthly sub. prices, US$, July 2004

Overall subscription charges are important

Source: ITU research

0.920.860.86

0.550.430.42

0.380.310.290.280.260.24

0.200.180.180.180.170.170.150.13

0.100.090.070.060.060.040.040.020.010.00

Estonia 30Greece 29

Czech Republic 28New Zealand 27

Bahamas 26Ireland 25Iceland 24Austria 23

Slovenia 22Luxembourg 21

United Kingdom 20Israel 19

France 18Italy 17

Australia 16Finland 15

Netherlands 14Norw ay 13Denmark 12Germany 11

Sw itzerland 10Singapore 9

Belgium 8Canada 7

United States 6Hong Kong, China

Taiw an, China 4Korea (Rep.) 3

Sw eden 2Japan 1

Cost 100 kbit/s as % of monthly income

But factoring in the speed of the connection and income is the more telling story


The digital divide The digital divide ––not the only dividenot the only divide

For individuals For countries

Socio-economic status Development stage

Gender Infrastructure

Age, life stage Public policy

Language/ethnic status Skills mix

Rural/urban location Size of domestic market

Skills balance Location relative to trading partners


Digital divide: some progressDigital divide: some progress

10 161499

202390.4

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1993 1998 2003

Internet users (million)

Devel-oping

Devel-oped

Internet

31244

734

380

608

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1993 1998 2003

Mobile (million)

Devel-oping

Devel-oped

Mobile

Note: Developed economies account for roughly 14% of the world’s population but 75% of world income.Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database


EndlessEndlesscatchcatch--upup

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

High

Upper middle

Low er middle

Low

Internet users per 100 inhab., by income level

0123456789

10

2000 2001 2002 2003

High

Upper middle

Low er middle

Low

Broadband subs per 100 inhab., by income level

Just as developing economies Just as developing economies start making progress in rolling start making progress in rolling out a particular technology, out a particular technology, another appears in richer another appears in richer economies and the cycle economies and the cycle repeats.repeats.

Source:ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database


Beyond infrastructure deploymentBeyond infrastructure deployment

! Education and awareness"Fostering

entrepreneurship! Affordability

"Encourage pre-paid services also for mobile data

! Local and community-based initiatives! Content development

"Keeping it locally relevant


The portable Internet and the The portable Internet and the human factorhuman factor

! Health concerns and opportunities! Blurring boundaries between the public and

private sphere! The new “digital persona”! Protecting the consumer! Taking care of a tech-savvy youth culture! A peek at the future today, e.g.

"A high-tech identity (e.g. injectable RFID)"Enhancing the five human senses


New ITU Report: The Portable InternetNew ITU Report: The Portable Internet

Available Now!Available Now!1. Introduction2.Portable Internet technologies3.Market trends4.Policy and regulation5.A tool for bridging the digital divide6.The future of portable Internet technologies7.The information society and the human factorStatistical tables

www.itu.int/portableinternet

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