ITU-D Seminar on IMT 2000 and beyond Systems · ITU-D Seminar on IMT 2000 and beyond Systems...

© UMTS Forum 2001Lucent Technologies

ITU-D Seminar on IMT 2000 and beyond Systems

Warsaw, 2 – 4 October 2001

Migration Paths 2G to 3GPlanning the Evolution to IMT 2000

byWolfgang Groenen

Chairman UMTS Forum,Manufacturers Group

and

Director Industry RelationsLucent Technologies

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Agenda

Migration Paths 2G to 3GPlanning the Evolution to IMT 2000

1. Introduction

2. Development in Markets and Services

3. Planning the Evolution of the GSM Platform

4. Migration Paths

5. Global Standardisation

6. New Services in Mobile Networks

7. Conclusions

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UMTS Forum Membership

! International and independentcommitted through consensus to the successful introductionand development of UMTS / IMT 2000 systems

! Unique focusdelivery of market-focused recommendations aimed at thesuccessful commercial realisation of UMTS / IMT 2000 globally

! Over 260 members from 43 countries worldwideincluding mobile operators, manufacturers, regulators, consultants, IT and media/content communities

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Major Achievements

! Delivery of market-focused Reports14 reports up to date

! Detailed spectrum recommendationssuccessful contributions to WRC-2000

! A regulatory framework for licensing

! Co-ordination of market requirementsFirst Market Representation Partner (MRP) of 3GPPRecommendations delivered to 3GPP

! Licensing database> 110 licences to be expected by end 2001

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The GSM Platform - Statistics of Success

GSM MoUMembers

Networkson airUsers Countries

Trialsonly 43 23 0

12.5 mio 156 86 117

1991

1995

2005Forecast

70 mio 256 110 2391997

440 mio > 436 > 162 > 3752000

> 1000 mio

Source: GSM Association 02/01

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GSM Subscriber Forecast

Mio SubscribersGSM 1900GSM 1800

GSM 900

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Dec. 93 Dec. 94 Dec. 95 Dec. 96 Dec. 97 Dec. 98 Dec. 99 Dec. 00


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0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001


Asia Pacific

Europe (East + West)

North America

Rest of World

Distribution of World Cellular Subscribers by Regions

Mio Subscribers

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Distribution of World Cellular Subscribers

Source: EMC World Cellular DatabaseGSM Association 02/01

GSM

PDC

IS54IS95

GSM is the best Footprint for 3G / UMTS,since GSM is preferred by 70 % of all digital Users

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GSM Evolution Towards 3rd Generation Systems

9.6 kbps

GSM

Development of Radio Access

57.6 kbps

HSCSD

115 kbps

GPRS

384 kbps

EDGE

2 Mbps

UMTS / IMT 20003rd generation

Evolving GSM

1997

Wireless Application ProtocolSource: GSA

1999 / 2000 2001 / 2002

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GSM

Integrated solution for future service demands

Pure packet solutionno guaranteed quality

Now 2000 2001 2002

GPRS EDGE

UMTS/2Mbit

Frequency re-planning, Coverage problemSupport of EDGE and non-EDGE terminals is complex

HSCSD

Technologies vs Timeline

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Evolution to 3rd Generation Mobile Systems

AMPS NMT 450

NMT 900 NET C

Paging

GSM 1800GSM 1900

CDMA IS-95

D-AMPS IS-54

PDC

Radiocom

1st

2nd

3rd

Japan USACellular

EuropeCordless

Europe USA Japan GenerationUSA

SatelliteUMTS

IMT 2000 FamilyConcept

TACS

DECT

CT0 ... 3

PACS PHS

GSM 900

MSSLEOS, MEOS

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UMTS Forum Published Reports (1)

(as of 04/01)

Report # 1 A Regulatory Framework for UMTS

# 2 The Path towards UMTS -Technologies for the Information Society

# 3 The Impact of Licence Cost Levels on the UMTS Business Case

# 4 Consideration of Licensing Conditions for UMTS Network Operations

# 5 Minimum Spectrum Demand per Public TerrestrialUMTS Operator in the Initial Phase

# 6 UMTS / IMT 2000 SpectrumAssessing Global Requirements for the Next Century

# 7 Candidate Extension Bands for UMTS / IMT 2000

# 8 The Future Mobile Market Global Trend and Developments

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UMTS Forum Published Reports (2)

(as of 04/01)

Report # 9 The UMTS 3rd Generation Market:Exploring the Services Revenue Opportunity (Part 1)

# 10 Shaping the Mobile Multimedia FutureAn Extended Vision from the UMTS Forum

# 11 Enabling UMTS (3G) Services and Applications

# 12 Naming, Addressing and Identification Issues for UMTS

# 13 The UMTS 3rd Generation Market Exploring the Services Revenue Opportunity (Part 2)

# 14 Services, Applications and Devices (expected end 2001)

# 15 Opportunities, Advantages and Disadvantages for operators when acting in traditional business or as an ISP (expected end 2001)

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Mobile Portal

Rich Voice

Mobile InternetAccess

Intranet/ExtranetAccess

Multimedia Messaging

Service

Location-based

Services

Mobile ISP Mobile Specialised Services

CustomisedInfotainment

UMTS Forum Market StudyBusiness Models

CONTENT CONNECTIVITY

(Internet)

VOICE

MOBILITY

INFORMATION AND CONTENT (Non-Voice)

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Who do we deliver to ?Building bridges around the world

CWTSCWTS

UIPAUIPA

GBAGBA

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IMT 2000: what’s different from 2G?

Moving from voice communicationsto a rich, interactive multimedia-basedpersonal and business environment -

…the complete Wireless Information Societyexperience

…the complete Wireless Information Societyexperience Transmission

Voice, messaginglow-speed data

MultimediaApplications

Circuitswitching

Packetrouting

Services

2G 3G

Switching Method

14.4 Kb/s 2Mb/s

Time and/orlocation based

ManyoptionsCharging

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Distribution Channels

Networking

Hardware and SoftwarePackages

Distribution Channels

SoftwareProviders

HardwareProviders

ComputersCATV

Local Network(s)

Content Providers

Multiple Packagers

Today: Separate Vertical IndustriesTelephony

CPE

Local Network

Wide AreaNetworks

Content

Books

MusiciansAuthors

NewspapersCDs

CPE

Reporters

An Industry in Change

Future: Information Industry Service Providers

• Intense Competition• New Opportunities

Service ProvidersService Providers•• Intense CompetitionIntense Competition•• New OpportunitiesNew Opportunities

Information ContentInformation Content

Information ServersInformation Servers

Information NetworksInformation Networks

Information AppliancesInformation Appliances

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Service Value 2G versus 3G

3G service value versus 2G

Serv

ice

valu

e fo

r the

end

use

r

Ordinal scale

Source: UMTS Forum, Market Aspects Group LB = Location Based

InteractiveGame

Videosub-

scriptionnews

Remotemonitoring

Music ondemand

LBemergency

Gambling

M-banking

Expertson tap

Video ondemand

Navigationmap

LBenter-tain-ment

Trafficreports

M-shopping

LB shopping

information Videotelephony

(translation)

M-broking

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Source: 3 GPP

IMT 2000 – Terrestrial Radio Interfaces

IMT 2000Concept

IMT - DSDirect Spread

IMT - TCTime Code

IMT - MCMulti Carrier

IMT - SCSingle Carrier

IMT - FTFrequency

Time

WCDMAor

UTRA FDDUTRA TDD

UWC - 136or

EDGEcdma 2000 DECT

3 GPPResponsibility

for Standardisation

3 GPP 3 GPP 2 UWCC/TR45 ETSI

Also known

as:

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New IMT 2000 / UMTS Spectrum (WRC 2000)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

Re-serve

UMTSGSM 1800DECT

IMT 2000PHS

IMT 2000

IMT2000

IMT 2000

IMT 2000

UMTS

A D B EF A B C

GSM 1800, PCS

D FEB BC

ITU Allocations

Europe

China

Japan,Korea (w/o PHS)

North America

1700 1750 1800950 1000800 850 900

IMT 2000IMT 2000

2500 2550 2600 2650 2700

IMT 2000

UMTS

GSM

Cellular

PDC

Cellular

P C S

GSM

MSS

MSS

MSS

MSS

MSS

MSS

MSS

MSS

MSS

MSS

IMT2000

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A few years from now, billions of people worldwide will be talking, listening, watching, buying, playing and learning with their mobile phones

The multimedia future

Tomorrow’s phones will be much more than

just phones

Tomorrow’s phones will be much more than

just phones

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Fast forward to the future

… tomorrow’s mobile users will use exciting newpocketable communications devices to view high-quality video clips, work with graphics-rich document files, browse, buy and enjoy a whole new world of information and entertainment services.

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! Mobile communications will continue to be among the fastest growing market segments in telecommunications

! 3G systems based on the evolution of the GSM platform are on the way to leading positions worldwide

! Next generation systems with the paradigm shift to high speed data and mobile multimedia services will change the world we live in

! Convergence of networks, technologies and services will be the key to a seamless mobility for the users and the key for opening mass markets in mobile communications

Conclusions

" The UMTS Forum will continue to pave the way for a smooth introduction of IMT 2000 / UMTS

" Lucent Technologies is prepared to provide Total System Solutions for 3G / IMT 2000 Business

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Information about the UMTS Forum

UMTS ForumRussell Square House10 - 12 Russell SquareLONDON WC1B 5EEUNITED KINGDOMTel: + 44 207 331 2020Fax: + 44 207 331 2040E-mail: [email protected]

MobilenniuM newsletterWeb Site: www.umts-forum.org/

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ITU-D Seminar on IMT 2000 and beyond Systems · ITU-D Seminar on IMT 2000 and beyond Systems...

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