It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine) by Ben Garney of Pushbutton Labs

It’s The End Of The WorldAs We Know It, And I Feel Fine.By Ben Garney

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Saturday, March 3, 2012

http://bengarney.com


Introduction

• Who am I?

• What’s going on?

• Where are we going?


Hill Valley, 1955


GarageGames, 2006


Recent Events

• Adobe drops Flash in mobile browsers.

• Financial analyst call in January.

• Open sourcing Flex.

• Flash Player Roadmap last month.


Flash in the Market

• Flash has a great position.

• But right behind it...

• Corona, Moai, Unity

• Scaleform, Iggy, In-house tech.

• HTML5, Emscripten, Swiffy, Gordon


Erosion


The Flash Tripod

• Tools - Flash Builder, Flash Pro

• Runtime - Player, AIR

• Platform - SWF, AVM+, APIs


Declining Assets


“Declining” Outcomes

• Led to GG sale to IAC for ~$50M...

• Left and started PushButton Labs...

• Torque survived shutdown, still selling!


“Declining Asset”is a label to help make decisions.

Not business reality.


Back to Adobe...

• Writing on the wall.

• Long term winner: HTML5

• But Flash still lives....


CommunitySaturday, March 3, 2012

Tech Communities

• Look out for the vocal minority.

• The people you hear from are emotionally invested.

• Users have a limited perspective.


Reaction

• End of the world!

• Flash is dead!

• Wait, are we talking about our ex-girlfriend, or software?


Reports Of My Death...


Adobe’s Outs

• Replace Player with HTML5.

• Leverage tools to target JS.

• And the subtle play...


Adobe’s Outs

• HTML5 is the future.

• Open standard.

• Public opinion supports it!

• Wide deployment.


Adobe’s Outs

• HTML5 is the future?

• Vendor friction.

• Mixed priorities.

• JS is not great for large apps.


Adobe’s Outs

• Take advantage of HTML5 boom.

• Take Flash off the agenda...

• And let it fly under the radar.


Flash Outcomes

• Could die quietly...

• Could maximize revenue in mid-term...

• Could allow a renaissance.


Future Proofing


Build it,and they will come.


Diversify.


Platforms Die.


(And I Feel Fine.)


Conclusion


Conclusion

• Flash is a “declining asset”...

• (Whatever that means.)

• Leverage Flash as long as you can!

• Your skillsets are not...

• Future proof yourself.


Conclusion

• Thanks for coming!

• http://bengarney.com

• @bengarney

• Questions?




It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine) by Ben Garney of Pushbutton Labs

Technology

Transcript of It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine) by Ben Garney of Pushbutton Labs