Climate and Transportation:

Pulling Out the Stops

Deron LovaasFederal Transportation Policy Director

Natural Resources Defense Council

ITS America

Houston, Texas

May 4, 2010

Slide

Moving America Beyond Oil

“ We have a serious problem. America is

addicted to oil.”

President George W. Bush,

2006 State of the Union

Slide

2008 EPA Emissions Inventory

Economy-wide

Transportation = 27%*

Transportation

Passenger Vehicles = 58%

3

* End use only. If production and refining of petroleum is included, then transportation share would increase to roughly 1/3rd.

Source: 2010 EPA GHG Emission Inventory

Slide

Travel Activity and Oil Imports

4

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

Tra

nsit

Bo

ard

ing

s (

in m

illio

ns)

Veh

icle

Miles T

rav

ele

d (

millio

ns)

an

d O

il I

mp

ort

s (

tho

usan

d b

arr

els

)

Year

Vehicle Miles Traveled Oil Imports Transit Boardings

Slide

Fuel Economy: Jump, then Stall

5

Slide

Vehicle and Fuel Improvements:

Cornerstone, but Not the Building

6

325 MMT

570 MMT

750 MMT

Assumes fixed efficiency baseline.

LDV CO2 and CAFE Stds plus RFS2

Reduction Targets(from 2005 baseline)

2020 = 17%2030 = 38%2050 = 80%

Source: NRDC analysis

U.S. Transportation Sector Emissions

Slide

Vehicle Efficiency Options

7

LDV and HDV Strategy Per Vehicle GHG Reduction Potential

Advanced Conventional

Gasoline 8-30%

Diesel 16%

Hybrid-Electric 26-54%

Plug-in Hybrid Electric 46-75%

Retrofits of HDVs 10-15%

Powertrain and

Resistance Reduction for

New HDVs 10-30%

Transit Bus Hybridization 10-50%

Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide

Low-Carbon Fuel Strategies

8

Strategy

GHG Reduction

Effectiveness Net Included Cost per Tonne Cobenefits

Ethanol n/a n/a n/a

Biodiesel n/a n/a n/a

CNG 0.3-0.6% Net savings Positive

LPG <0.1% Not calculated Positive

Synthetics Uncertain/varies Uncertain/varies Positive

Alternative

Aviation

Fuels Uncertain/varies Uncertain/varies Positive

Hydrogen FC

2.3-3.2% (2030);

18-22% (2050) Net savings

Positive and

Negative

BEV

2.2-2.5% (2030);

26-30% (2050) Net savings

Positive and

Negative

Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide

System Efficiency + Reducing

Carbon-Intensive Activities• Combined 2.9-6.1% Reduction Potential from:

– Highway and Truck Operations and Management

– Freight Rail and Marine Operations

– Air Traffic Operations

– Infrastructure Construction and Maintenance

• Combined 4.9-17% (2030) and 6.4-21% (2050) Reduction

Potential from:

– Pricing

– Transit, Nonmotorized and Intermodal Travel

– Land Use and Parking

– Commute Travel Reduction

– Public Information Campaigns9Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide

Sea Change for CAFE, What Next?

• And now, AAM

says: “The

national [fuel

economy and

GHG] program

announced today

makes sense for

consumers, for

government

policymakers and

for automakers.”

10

Year Vote Senate Bill

1990 42-57Break Filibuster against bill to

boost CAFE by 40% by 2000

199137

SponsorsBill to boost CAFE by 2001

1994-

2000

CAFE

Freeze

Provision added by Congress in

FY06 budget

1999 40-55Non-binding resolution to unfreeze

CAFE

2002 44-56Amendment to freeze CAFE for

pick-up trucks

2003 32-65Amendment to increase CAFE to

40 mpg by 2015

2005 28-67Amendment to increase CAFE to

40 mpg by 2015

Slide 11Source: CBO, 2007

Slide

VMT Growth:

Already Trending Downward

12Source: Pisarski and Cambridge Systematics

Slide

“The Market Wants this Stuff”

Is there adequate supply of alternative development in existing

housing and new construction?

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

Nort

heast

Gre

at

Pla

ins a

nd

Mid

west

South

-

Centr

al

Answering "Not enough"

Source: Jonathan Levine, Zoned Out: Regulations, Markets and

Choices in Transportation and Metropolitan Land-Use, 2006.

Slide 14

Thank You!

dlovaas@nrdc.org

202-289-2384

For more information regarding NRDC’s Energy Program

http://www.nrdc.org/energy/