● Getanup-to-dateoverviewoftheoutlookforthetinindustry

● HostedbyITRIExplorersandDevelopersGroup

● Q&Awithcompaniesdevelopingthenextgenerationofnewmineprojects

Presenter:PeterKettle,Manager,Markets–ITRILtd Perth

Monday17thNovember

Melbourne

Wednesday5thNovember

Perth

Melbourne

Brisbane

Sydney

Sydney

Thursday6thNovember

Brisbane

Monday3rdNovember

Supply/Demand and Price Outlook After a great growth spurt from the late 1990s to the mid-2000s the trend in global tin use has become quite uncertain. Tin intensity of use (consumption growth relative to that of the world economy) has trended downwards by an average of -1.5% pa since 1980. Although there was no overall net substitution/economisation observable from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s, change has accelerated again recently, especially in electronics. Product miniaturisation and changes in assembly technologies is an ongoing threat to tin use in electronic solders, which is by far the biggest current application. Offsetting this, the main market opportunities for tin are in energy generation, conservation and storage. This area includes products which are already in commercial production (e.g. maintenance-free lead-acid SLI batteries, catalysts for insulation foam, e-glass coatings) as well as a wide range still at the R&D stage.

ITRI’s central/”most likely” forecast of the medium term outlook for tin prices is based on steady growth in the world economy, as forecast by the IMF in its April World Economic Outlook report, and declining tin intensity of use, with the result that global tin consumption growth rates will drop from around 2.5% to below 1% pa over the next five years. On the supply side we take quite an optimistic view that new mines with a combined capacity of some 80,000 tpy will start-up by 2018, offsetting falling production in China and, especially, Indonesia. Secondary tin production is also forecast to rise from some 60,000 tpy to over 80,000 tpy. No allowance is made for government stockpile sales or purchases.

The result of these assumptions is that the market is expected to remain in deficit for the whole five year outlook period, with a cumulative shortfall of over 60,000 tonnes. This is from a starting position where visible stocks amounted to some 35,000 tonnes at the end of 2013. However the forecast deficits could just about be covered by a draw-down of unreported stocks held by producers, consumers and traders, notably in China. By the end of the period the market is expected to be facing an unprecedented shortage, which will push prices up to all-time highs.

The current uncertainties about global demand, weakness in China and higher exports from Indonesia are likely to keep prices in the current range of $22,000 - $23,000/tonne through the third quarter of this year, but an upward move is forecast from Q4. With the world stocks to consumption ratio forecast to fall from some five weeks’ to less than two weeks’ supply, it is probable that prices will exceed $30,000/tonne by the second half of 2015 and $40,000/tonne by 2018.

Over the following ten years prices could cover a wide range of some $20,000 - $50,000/tonne. It is most likely that the highest prices will be in 2019 – 2021 and decline towards or below the equilibrium level after that. We see the long-term equilibrium price in the mid-2020s at around $30,000/tonne. However a very high price scenario for 2017 – 2021 is likely to have long-term negative repercussions: several years of prices above $40,000/tonne is likely to result in serious demand destruction and the launch of many marginal new mine projects. This will eventually tip the market into over-supply. Prices will have to drop back to or below the floor price determined by marginal cash operating costs, to bring supply and demand back into balance by shutting down capacity again.

ITRIExplorersandDevelopersGroupAustralianTour2014

NewsourcesfornewapplicationsJoinusattheInvestinginTinSeminars

WhatyoucanexpectAseriesofseminarswillprovidepotentialinvestorswithanup-to-dateoverviewoftheoutlookforthetinindustrybyITRI’sPeterKettle,aswellasanopportunitytomeetcompaniesdevelopingthenextgenerationofnewmineprojects.

AboutyourhostsITRIistheUK-basedinternationaltinindustryassociationrepresenting60%ofworldproduction.

TheITRIExplorersandDevelopersGroupincludescompaniescontrollingmostofthelargestactivetinprojects.

Brisbane

Monday3rdNovember

Hosts: AusTinMining,ConsolidatedTinMines,ElementosLimited

Time: 5.00-7.00pmDetails:PresentationsbyPeterKettleandHostCompanies,

Q&AandMelbourneCuptipsVenue: BrisbanePoloClub,193MarySt,BrisbaneQLD4000RSVP: LouiseStubberfield,QueenslandExplorationCouncil,

Tel:+61 7 3295 9560,e-mail:louises@qrc.org.au

Perth

Monday17thNovember

Hosts: MetalsXandKasbahResourcesTime: 12.30–2.30pmDetails:LunchintheMetalsXboardroom,with

presentationbyPeterKettleandQ&AwithhostsVenue: MetalsXLimited,Level3,18-32ParliamentPlace,

WestPerthWA6005RSVP: MaureenMcPhee,KasbahResources,

Tel:+61 8 9463 6651,e-mail:mmcphee@kasbahresources.com

Melbourne

Wednesday5thNovember

Hosts: BeerandCo.SecondAnnualTinConferenceDetails:LMEDownUndereventwithpresentationsby

PeterKettle,RonGoodmanandleadingASX-listedAustraliantincompanies

Time: 8.30am-12.30pmVenue: Level2,RACVClub,501BourkeStreet,

MelbourneVIC3000RSVP: byFriday,31OctobertoMichaelBeer,

e-mail:mbeer@beerandco.com.au

Sydney

Thursday6thNovember

Hosts: ConsolidatedTinMines,StellarResources,KasbahResources,AusTinMining,ElementosLimited

Details:PresentationsbyPeterKettleandHostCompanieswithQ&A.Maximum60guests.

Time: 9.30am–12.30pmVenue: CharrRoomattheAmoraHotelJamison,

11JamisonStreet,SydneyNSW2000RSVP: JeremyBlockey,ExecutiveAssistant,Consolidated

TinMines,Tel:+61 7 4053 9818,e-mail:jeremy.blockey@csdtin.com.au