Item 04e - Grid Operations and Planning Report · 2014. 6. 23. · September 2011: Generic...
Transcript of Item 04e - Grid Operations and Planning Report · 2014. 6. 23. · September 2011: Generic...
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Grid Operations and Planning Report
Kent Saathoff
Board of Directors MeetingBoard of Directors MeetingOctober 18, 2011
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Content
• SummarySummary
• September 2011 Operations– Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast
On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind– CPS1 Monthly Performance– Historical Peak and Minimum Loads– Day-Ahead Load Forecast PerformanceDay Ahead Load Forecast Performance– Reliability Unit Commitment Capacity (RUC) by weather zone – Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)– Advisories, Watches and EEAs
Si ifi t S t I id t– Significant System Incidents
• Planning Activities– Summary– Generation Interconnection Requests– Wind Capacity– Reliability Must Run Generation Update– Gas Curtailment Risk Study Update
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– Drought Effect on Generation
October 18, 2011 ERCOT Public
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Summary
• September 2011 OperationsSeptember 2011 Operations– The peak demand of 63,160 MW on September 03 was more than the mid-term
forecast peak of 61,915 MW and more than the September 2010 actual peak demand of 58,201 MW.
– Day-ahead load forecast error for September was 2.70%– Advisory for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW issued 19
days– No Watches for PRC under 2500 MW issuedo atc es o C u de 500 ssued– No Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) events issued
• Planning Activities– 185 active generation interconnect requests totaling over 59,000 MW as
of September 30, 2011. Five fewer requests and 1,000 MW less than August 31, 2011.9 400 MW i d it li S t b 30 2011 N h f– 9,400 MW wind capacity on line September 30, 2011. No change from August 31, 2011
– Determined Greens Bayou 5 not needed for RMR service
3 ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011
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September 2011 Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs. Forecast, Wind Day-Ahead COPs & On-line Capacity at Peak
80,000 Actual Peak LoadA t l O li C it
70,000
Actual Online CapacityActual Wind OutputERCOT Load Day-Ahead ForecastWind Day-Ahead COPs
Peak Demand for the Month: 63,135 MW @ 09/02/11 HE17:00
50,000
60,000
40,000
MW
20,000
30,000
10,000
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Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from COPs, and EMMS.ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011
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September 2011: Actual Wind Output plus Curtailments vs. Wind Day-Ahead COPs for All Hours
5000
% of Hours when Estimated Uncurtailed Wind Output >= COP HSLs (Target = 50%)
45%
4000
4500
3000
3500
2000
2500MW
500
1000
1500
0
500
Operating Day
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Note: QSEs must use the AWST 50% probability of exceedance forecast as the HSL in their COPs
ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011
Daily Averaged Aggregated Wind Output Estimated Wind Curtailment Daily Averaged Day‐Ahead COP HSL
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September 2011 ERCOT’s CPS1 Monthly Performance
170170
160
170
160
170CPS1 12 Month Rolling Average = 146.88%
140
150
140
150
vera
ge
130130CPS
1 Av
110
120
110
120
100100
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Monthly Average 12 Month Rolling Average
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September 2011: Monthly Peak Actual Demand
80,000
70,000
20102011
Peak Demand is Peak Interval Demand
50,000
60,000
MW
30,000
40,000 MW
10 000
20,000
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10,000
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Month
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September 2011: Monthly Minimum Actual Demand
40,000
35,000
40,000 2010
2011Minimum Demand is Valley Interval Demand
25,000
30,000
15,000
20,000 MW
10,000
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5,000
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Month
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Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance in September 2011
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for ERCOT Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) Run at 14:00 Day Ahead
2008MAPE
2009MAPE
2010MAPE
2011MAPE
September 2011MAPE
AverageAnnual 3.30 3.11 2.83 2.68 2.70MAPE
LowestMonthly MAPE
2.45 1.93 2.24 1.63LowestDailyMAPE
0.70Sep – 15
HighestMonthly MAPE
4.99 4.11 3.79 3.55
Highest DailyMAPE
7.74Sep – 30
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Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Capacity by weather zone in September 2011
RUCCommitments byWeather Zone
25
30
RUC Commitments by Weather Zone
Unit-Days RUC Total Days
20
25
25
15
Days
16
13
5
10
6
2
8
24
2 3
0COAST EAST NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH SOUTH CENTRAL
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Weather Zone
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September 2011: Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)
GTLsSep 10DaysCSC
Jul 11DaysGTLs
Aug 11DaysGTLs
Sep 11DaysGTLs
Last 12 Months
Total Days (Aug 10 Aug 11)(Aug 10 – Aug 11)
North – Houston 8 0 0 0 32
West – North 15 4 2 11Sep–(4,5,14,15,17,18,22,24,25,2
9, 30)
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GTL: A transmission flow limit more constraining than a Transmission Element’s normal limit t bli h d t t i fl b t hi f th ERCOT T i i S t th t i
Valley Import 0 0 0 0 15
established to constrain flow between geographic areas of the ERCOT Transmission System that is used to enforce stability and voltage constraints that cannot be modeled directly in ERCOT’s transmission security analysis applications.
Note: This table lists how many times a constraint has been activated to avoid exceeding a GTL limit, it does
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not imply an exceedance of the GTL occurred.
ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011
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Advisories and Watches in September 2011
• Advisories issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW.– Issued 19 Days
• Watches issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 2500 MW.– None
• Transmission Watches– None
• Energy Emergency Alerts– None
12 ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011
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Significant System Incidents in September 2011
• September 4 9• September 4-9– Wildfires impacted two 345KV lines, sixteen 138KV lines, three 69KV
lines and two generating stations in the Bastrop area. All lines back in ser ice b September 18in service by September 18.
– Two 345 KV lines from Jewett to Zenith impacted by a separate wildfire. Back in service by September 9.
– No significant reliability issues caused by the outages
13 ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011
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Planning Summary
• 185 generation interconnection request studies totaling over 59,000 MW are ongoing. This includes almost 34,000 MW of wind generation.wind generation.
• ERCOT is currently reviewing proposed transmission improvements with a total cost of $117.9 Million
• Transmission Projects endorsed in 2011 total $579 9 Million• Transmission Projects endorsed in 2011 total $579.9 Million• All projects (in engineering, routing, licensing and
construction) total approximately $9.8 BillionTransmission Projects energized in 2011 total $694 8 million• Transmission Projects energized in 2011 total $694.8 million
14October 18, 2011 ERCOT Public
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County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (all fuels) September 2011
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County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (Wind) September 2011
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Wind Generation
1,553 1,755 1,755
9 4009,700
10,953 11,155 11,155
10,000
12,000
MWCumulative MW Installed
Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement)
300
8,005
8,916
9,400
8,000
ERCOT Wind Installations by Year (as of September 30, 2011)The data presented here is based upon the latest registration data provided to
4,785
6,000
g pERCOT by the resource owners and can change without notice. Any capacity changes will be reflected in current and subsequent years' totals. Scheduling delays will also be reflected in the planned projects as that information is received.
1,854
2,875
2 000
4,000This chart now reflects planned units in calendar year of installation rather than installation by peak of year shown
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816 977 1,173
1,385 1,854
0
2,000
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
October 18, 2011 ERCOT Public
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Generation Interconnection Activity by Fuel
MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW Coal MW Wind MW Solar *
300120,000
MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW Coal MW Wind MW Solar
MW Biomass * MW Other Total # Projects # Projects Cancelled
* Prior to September 2008, Category "Other" included "Solar" and "Biomass"Projects in all phases of interconnection study are reflected in this graphProject cancellation tracking by month began in March 2008
200
250
80,000
100,000
15060,000
Proj
ect C
ount
MW
Cap
acity
50
100
20,000
40,000
00
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Au g
-06
Se p
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
Ma y
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Au g
-07
Se p
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
Ma y
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Au g
-08
Se p
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
Ma y
-09
Jun-
09Ju
l-09
Au g
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10Fe
b-10
Mar
-10
Apr
-10
May
-10
Jun-
10Ju
l-10
Au g
-10
Se p
-10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11Fe
b-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
Ma y
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Au g
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Se p
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Generation Interconnection Activity by Project Phase
# In-Service ** # Signed Interconnect Agreement # Projects Cancelled ***
120,000
350
400
# Completed Full Study # in Full Study # Screening Study Complete
# Initial Screening Study MW Capacity Under Study * MW In Commercial Operation **
* Nameplate capacity will change across time due to additional projects, cancellations, expirations, adjustments from study results, and projects being placed in service.
80,000
100,000
250
300
350** Having begun commercial operation since January 2006
*** Began tracking cancellations by month in March 2008
60,000200
250
MW
Cap
acity
Proj
ect C
ount
20,000
40,000
100
150
MP
0
,
0
50
an-0
6eb
-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
ay-0
6un
-06
Jul-0
6ug
-06
ep-0
6O
ct-0
6ov
-06
ec-0
6an
-07
eb-0
7M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7ay
-07
un-0
7Ju
l-07
ug-0
7ep
-07
Oct
-07
ov-0
7ec
-07
an-0
8eb
-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
ay-0
8un
-08
Jul-0
8ug
-08
ep-0
8O
ct-0
8ov
-08
ec-0
8an
-09
eb-0
9M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9ay
-09
un-0
9Ju
l-09
ug-0
9ep
-09
Oct
-09
ov-0
9ec
-09
an-1
0eb
-10
Mar
-10
Apr
-10
ay-1
0un
-10
Jul-1
0ug
-10
ep-1
0O
ct-1
0ov
-10
ec-1
0an
-11
eb-1
1M
ar-1
1A
pr-1
1ay
-11
un-1
1Ju
l-11
ug-1
1ep
-11
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Ja Fe M A Ma Ju J Au
Se O No
D Ja
Fe M A Ma Ju J Au
Se O No
D Ja
Fe M A Ma Ju J Au
Se O No
D Ja
Fe M A Ma Ju J Au
Se O No
D Ja
Fe M A Ma Ju J Au
Se O No
D Ja
Fe M A Ma Ju J Au
Se
October 18, 2011 ERCOT Public
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Reliability Must Run Update
• Greens Bayou 5
– ERCOT re-evaluated the need to enter into a RMR contract with Greens B 5 (GBY 5)Bayou 5 (GBY 5)
– GBY 5 assists in resolving the Garrott to Midtown 138 kV overload which tends to occur during shoulder monthsg
– Determined that other generators can reasonably resolve the constraint until the transmission improvement to remove the constraint is completed in the first quarter of 2012completed in the first quarter of 2012
– GBY 5 put in mothball status on October 1, 2011
• Spencer 4 and 5 and SR Bertron 2Spencer 4 and 5 and SR Bertron 2
– Contracted with owners to return from mothball status the end of August
Contracts expire October 31 2011
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– Contracts expire October 31, 2011
October 18, 2011 ERCOT Public
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Status Update on Gas Curtailment Risk Study
• Project Managementoject a age e t– Contracting completed on 9/23/2011– Project kick-off meeting on 9/26/11
• Data Gathering & Analysis• Data Gathering & Analysis– Survey to electric generators sent on 9/20/2011 and 9/28/2011
• Responses being collected; deadline is 10/07/2011– Additional data requests to ERCOT and RRC underway– Research and analysis of curtailments from 3rd party sources is
ongoing• Next Steps:
– Compile information from remaining surveys– Complete database of Historical CurtailmentsComplete database of Historical Curtailments– Complete database of Gas Infrastructure– Analysis of risk of curtailment in defined scenarios
Results expected January 2012
21 ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011
• Results expected January 2012
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Drought Effect on Generation
• ERCOT has been periodically surveying generators during and since the summer to monitor the effect of drought on generation availability
• Based on most recent survey:y– Current unavailability due to drought is only 24 MW– If East Texas receives only half of it’s normal winter/spring rainfall,
unavailability could go up to 434 MW by May– If no significant rainfall received, unavailability is estimated to be as
much as 3,044 MW by May– Approximately 9,000 MW is dependent on water rights from sources at
hi i ll l l lhistorically low levels• Mitigation actions being taken:
– Building of pipelines to remote water sources– Procuring additional water rights– Adding pumping capability
• ERCOT will continue to monitor the situation as long as the drought i t
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exists
ERCOT PublicOctober 18, 2011