ITALIAN NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018

ITALIAN NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018Milan April 2018

Rating Agency

Dati societari

Rating Agency

HEADQUARTERS

Cerved Rating Agency SpAVia dellrsquoUnione Europea 6A 6B

San Donato Milanese (MI)

COMPANYrsquoS STATUTORY DATA

Subscribed and paid-in share capital of 15000000 eurosMilan REA No 2035639

Tax ID and VAT No IT08445940961Website ratingagencycervedcom

Contact Information

Izuela StafaResearch Analyst

P +39 027754797E izuelastafacervedcomA Via della Unione Europea 6A 20097 San Donato Milanese - (MI)

Riccardo GottardiStatistical Analyst

P +39 027754404E riccardogottardicervedcomA Via della Unione Europea 6A 20097 San Donato Milanese - (MI)

Milovan MilovicCredit officer

P +39 027754345A Via dellrsquoUnione Europea n 6A-6B 20097- San Donato Milanese - (MI)

Growth still on track but more uncertainties on the horizonitalian non-financial companies economic outlook 2018

Table of contents

Preface

Assumptions

Executive summary

World economy Outlook 2018

European economy Outlook 2018

Highlights on italian economy

Italian non-financial companies economic Outlook 2018

3

4

6

8

10

12

22

3

Preface

The projections in this study reflect Cerved Rating Agencyrsquos opinion on the economic and financial situation and the

general risk level of Italian non-financial companies in 2018

The study is the product of the analysis of the Global European and Italian macroeconomic historical data between

2000 and 2017 and the forecasts for 2018 combined with specific individual data between 2000 and 2017 related to

Italian non-financial companies with turnover exceeding euro5 million

CERVED RATING AGENCY SpA | Preface

4


Assumptions

5

A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections exposed in this study more specifically

the Italian economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2018 with GDP forecast at 15 compared to 16

recorded in 2017

the inflation rate is expected to decrease from 14 recorded in 2017 to 12 in 2018 remaining below the

European Central Bank target rate of 20

the average price of oil is expected to be close to $60 a barrel in 2018 whilst the prices of non-fuel commodities

are expected to remain mostly unchanged

actual exchange rates are expected to remain relatively stable at the levels of the last three months of 2017 ie

we do not expect the average EuroUS Dollar exchange rate to exceed 12 at this level exports will gain pace

driven also by a general improvement in the economic cycle and therefore resulting in a higher demand

the European Central Bank is expected to leave the key interest rates at the present low levels and to continue

to apply non-standard monetary policy measures ie net asset purchases at a monthly pace of euro30 billion until

the end of September 2018 despite the reduction in size of the net asset purchases Italian credit institutions

are likely to expand their credit activities partially also due to a significant reduction in the amount of non-

performing loans thus supporting the momentum

the investments are expected to gain strength due to fiscal incentives higher domestic demand and supportive

credit conditions

in the next twelve months we do not envisage room for a significant change in Italian economic and financial

policies in particular regarding the fiscal system and public debt reduction due to the result of the general

political elections scheduled in Italy for 2018 moreover we believe that the results of the referendum for

autonomy held in Lombardy and Veneto will not have any significant impact on the general economic trend in

2018

finally the study does not consider the impact of extraordinary events such as an undesirable further escalation

of USA-North Korea andor USA-Iran disputes or the European disintegration processes on the economic and

financial trends underlying the analysis

Assumptions

CERVED RATING AGENCY SpA | Assumptions

6


Executive summary

7

This research aims to present two outputs

- projected economic and financial performances in 2018 of the Italian non-financial companies

- the expected risk level of such entities at the end of 2018

the sample extracted for the analysis consists of Italian joint stock and limited liability companies with turnover

exceeding euro5 million and includes on average roughly 50000 entities per year operating in 10 macro industries

(manufacturing further detailed in 10 micro-sectors) the related revenues in 2016 amounted to euro18 billion

representing 769 of total revenues of all Italian joint-stock and limited liability companies

the World European and Italian historical (2000-2016) and estimatedprojected (2017-2018) macroeconomic

data are combined with specific individual company data with the aim of obtaining accurate and reliable

forecasts

the Cerved database was the main source for the analysis of economic and financial performances of the

companies included in the sample Cerved Rating Agency database highlighted the risk level of such entities

based on the credit rating activities performed by the Agency

the research output affirms that gradual recovery of Italian non-financial companies is expected to continue in

2018 both in terms of revenue growth and improvement of the financial structure primarily for manufacturing

and accommodation and food services industry the trend is mainly fostered by positive global economic cycle

low interest rates and favorable regulatory framework supporting firm funding investments innovation and

employment

the general risk level in 2018 is assumed to remain approximately at the levels recorded at the end of 2017

a slight improvement in terms of rating upgrades is expected for 9 of the companies analyzed mainly

concentrated in the manufacturing wholesale and retail trade and the accommodation and food service

industry

Executive summary

CERVED RATING AGENCY SpA | Executive Summary

8



9

Growth is predicted to gain strength

The predicted global economic growth rate is 39

in 2018 (against 36 in 2017) According to the

International Monetary Fund forecast in 2018 the

two biggest world economies US and China will

grow at 23 and 65 rate respectively

Consumer price inflation rate to rise

The global consumer price inflation rate is expected

to rise assisted by higher commodity prices Oil price

averaged $54barrel in 2017 and is predicted to remain

close to $60barrel in 2018 whilst oil consumption is

forecast to record an uptick of 14 in 2018 In addition

also metal prices are expected to increase modestly in

2018

Trade to increase

Global world trade is predicted to increase further

in 2018 fostered by a recovery in manufacturing

activity and an increase in investment especially

in advanced economies In addition a recovery for

the commodity exporters is expected

Global risks remain tilted to the downside

These include increased trade protectionism as well

as economic policy uncertainty possible adversity

in the financial system due to easy monetary

conditions and over the longer term weaker

potential growth In addition the upcoming political

events and the current political uncertainties may

negatively affect the general economic conditions

Commodity Fuel Price Index

Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2

Volume of imports of goods and services (Y-o-Y change)

Volume of exports of goods and services (Y-o-Y change)

Current account balance ($ billion) Source IMF

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500

Exhibit 3 Global trade and current account balance world

EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld

Other advanced economies

China

OthersSource IMF and Cerved Rating Agency elaboration

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6

Exhibit 1 Contribution to global growth world

CERVED RATING AGENCY SpA | World economy Outlook 2018

10



11

Euro area gdp grows unemployment falls

GDP growth in the euro area rose around 21 in

2017 and is predicted to continue at a broadly similar

pace in 2018 Furthermore the unemployment

rate will continue to follow a declining trend and is

forecast to fall to 87 in 2018 (from 92 in 2017)

Industrial production improvement

Investments will accelerate and the international

environment will contribute positively to an increase

of exports (in line with the global growth) which will be

one of the principal driver of an industrial production

improvement in 2018

Further credit activity expansion

Across the euro zone countries companies are

benefiting both from eased lending conditions

and increase in the number of alternative lenders

The total amount of loans to households and non-

financial corporations grew by approximately 14

in 2017 whilst in 2018 it is predicted to increase more

slowly especially in the non-financial corporate

sector

Inflation rate to be stable

Consumer price inflation accelerated at the

beginning of 2017 mainly due to a rise in energy

prices The harmonized index of consumer prices

(HICP) is estimated at 15 in 2017 In 2018

the impact of energy inflation is expected to

decline resulting in a lower inflation rate outlook

(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK

OthersSource IMF ECB OECD

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4

Exhibit 5 Contribution to European growth European Union

EPU Index euro areaIndustrial production euro area (Y-O-Y change)

Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500

Exhibit 7 Industrial production and policy uncertainty index euro area

2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200

Germany Spain France Italy

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6

CERVED RATING AGENCY SpA | European economy Outlook 2018

12



13

Gdp growth is under way to consolidate in 2018

From 2000 to 2017 the Italian economy was more

vulnerable compared to other highly developed

countries in particular those of the euro area

The Italian real GDP at the end of 2017 was roughly

at the same level recorded in 2000 whilst the euro

area countries and specifically Germany and France

experienced a considerable growth in the same period

(188 205 and 198 respectively)

The Italian GDP has started to increase moderately only

since 2014 mainly due to an improvement in domestic

demand but its growth still remains below the growth

rates of the majority of euro zone countries The poor

performance of the labor and total productivity factor

accounts for most of the difference

An ageing population and a weak labor market

participation have also contributed negatively to

potential growth Structural reforms in particular the

Jobs Act and tax incentives on new labor contracts

contributed to the increase in employment making the

Italian labor market more flexible and efficient

In 2018 we expect the economic growth to be slightly

below the level reached in 2017 The trend will be

sustained by the world economy positive cycle

including higher levels of international trade volume

Italian companies will benefit from favorable credit

lending conditions due to an expanding credit activity

of the banking system and low interest rates

Whilst the Italian government adopted a set of dynamic

and diverse policies for 2018 we believe that some of

those previously introduced have already contributed

to the GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 thus reducing the

combined effect in 2018

Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500

Exhibit 10 GDP in Europe ($ billion)

Germany Italy Euro areas (11countries)France

Total multifactor productivityEmployment growth

Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6

Exhibit 9 Italian GDP employment and total multifactor productivity (Y-o-Y change)

2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010

CERVED RATING AGENCY SpA | Highlights on italian economy

14


The number of active companies has increased buthellip

The number of active companies in Italy registered at

the Chamber of Commerce as of December 31st 2016

amounted to 5145995 305629 more than in 2000

(63)

The increase in registered active companies is the result

of the positive trend from 2000 to 2008 (98) partially

cancelled by the decrease from 2009 to 2016 In 2017 a

slight improvement is expected to be recorded however

the number of active companies remains below its peak

value (5316104 entities) reached at the end of 2008

Exhibit 11 shows both the trend of active Italian companies

in the period 2000-2016 and their breakdown by legal

form We observe that the increased number of Joint Stock

Companies and particularly Limited Liability companies

(1206) was able to compensate the decrease in Unlimited

Partnerships (-62) and Sole Proprietorships (-79)

Companies are abandoning traditional sectors

Exhibit 12 shows the breakdown of the Italian active

companies at the end of 2000 and 2016 by industry

It can be observed that in many traditional sectors

the number of active companies decreased eg in

agriculture (-294) and manufacturing (-226) whilst

the number of companies increased in construction

(273) and wholesale and retail trade (39)

A very significant rise in the new registered companies

(456) occurred in other industries in particular

in the service industry offering information and

communication IT and professional scientific and

technical services

Joint Stock and Limited Liability Unlimited Partnership Sole proprietorshipO ther forms

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000

Exhibit 11 Italian active companies 2000-2016

Total

Source Movimprese and Cerved Rating Agency elaboration

Exhibit 12

Breakdown of the Italian active companies by industry 2000-2016

2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction

H Transporting and storage

I Accommodation and food service activities

L Real estate ativities

G Wholesale and retail traderepair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

X Other

15

Number of bankruptcy and other legal proceedings to decrease further

From 2000 to 2016 the number of bankruptcies and

other legal proceedings protests and prejudicial

acts in Italy mirrored the general trend of the

Italian economy

After reaching its minimum level in 2007 (5969)

the number of bankruptcy procedures in the

period 2009-2014 increased dramatically reaching

its peak value of 15608 in 2014

With the improvement in the economic and financial

environment starting from 2015 the number of

bankruptcy procedures decreased sharply in all

macro sectors returning approximately to the

levels recorded from 2000 to 2006 A positive

trend was recorded also in 2017 bankruptcy

procedure initiated for 11937 companies -113

when compared to the same period in 2016 In

absolute terms the highest number of bankruptcy

procedures was recorded in the service sectors

followed by the construction and manufacturing

Worth mentioning is the design of a new Italian

bankruptcy law that should be approved by

October 2018 The regulatory framework aims at

more efficient resolutions of cases of company

crisis supporting continuity of its operating

activities and safeguarding the interest of creditors

by introducing innovative solutions such as pre-

crisis warning mechanisms

Other legal proceedings after reaching its

maximum level in 2013 (3593) in 2016 came down

to 1993 and the trend continues in 2017 evidencing

1866 procedures -64 when compared to the

same period in 2016

In the last five years new protests and prejudicial

acts have also shown a decreasing trend with

ndash527 and ndash70 of acts respectively in 2017

compared to the numbers recorded in 2013

-6

Exhibit 13 Bankruptcy

BankruptcySource Cerved databaase

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937

Other legal procedingsSource Cerved database

1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866

Exhibit 14 Other legal procedings

1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total

Source Cerved database

Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929

Exhibit 15 Protests and prejudical acts


16


Core inflation rate to rise

Italian headline inflation will experience a modest

decline in 2018 compared to the previous year

(12 and 14 respectively) Core inflation

however is predicted to increase to 12 in 2018

(up from 10 in 2017)

Exports and import are accelerating

Exports and imports will both accelerate in 2018 (41

and 44 respectively) mirroring the positive trend

and expectations in global trade and the rising of the

external demand Machinery and equipment industry

will still remain in ldquopole positionrdquo due to companies

generous investment and tax incentives In general

in 2018 Italian exports will increase more in the Extra

European Union countries

Investment continues to gain strength

Investment has gained strength and will continue to

do so at a relatively fast pace supported by effects of

the tax incentives (Stability Low 2017) low interest rate

and improvements in business confidence Indeed

investments are expected to increase 30 in 2018

(up from 24 in 2017) Construction investments are

forecast to accelerate slightly also thanks to more

resources earmarked for public investment

Harmonised core infation

Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16

Imports of goods and services (Y-o-Y change)

Exports of goods and services (Y-o-Y changes)

Total dometic demand (Y-o-Y change)

Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15

Exhibit 17 Exports imports and demand Italy

20122003 2009

Wholesale and retail trade (Y-o-Y change)

Total investments ( of GDP)

Heavy industry (Y-o-Y change)

Other services (Y-o-Y change)

Source IMF and ISTAT

Construction (Y-o-Y change)

20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018

Exhibit 18 Investments by industry Italy

2003 2009 2012 2015

17

No room for significant public debt reduction

At the end of 2016 the Italian government debt-to-GDP

ratio was significantly above its level at the beginning of

the century In particular as of December 31st 2016 the

ratio was 1326 (262 with respect to 100 recorded

at the end of 2000)

In the same period the ratio for the euro area increased

from 681 to 913 (341) in Germany from 589 to

683 (159) and in France from 586 to 960 (638)

At the end of 2017 the Italian government debt increased

further to more than euro2300 billion 1350 of GDP The

debt servicing in terms of interests accounts roughly

50 of Italian GDP

In our view the high level of government debt

represents a key factor limiting Italian economic growth

and contributes eo ipso to increasing country risk

with a possible negative impact on the stability of the

international financial system

A possible increase in interest rates would raise the

cost of debt service potentially triggering a crisis due to

larger governmental deficits a slowdown in economic

activity and growing debt refinancing difficulties due to

higher risk perceived by investors

Hence it seems that a significant reduction in

government debt should be the main goal of the Italian

economic and financial policy in our opinion however

the achievement of such a result is not realistic neither

in the short nor in the medium term due to the following

factors

middot economic growth in the coming years is expected

to be moderate not sufficient to be the main source of

the government debt reduction

middot macroeconomic policy is expected to prioritize

investments employment social security and welfare

rather than government debt reduction

middot even if the inflation rate hits the target value (20) the

impact on the government debt in the short term is not

expected to be considerable

middot finally in Italy election will take place in spring 2018

with a new government taking over the economic

program that has already been approved and become

fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Exhibit 19 Public debt as GDP

France

Source AMECO and Cerved Rating Agency elaboration


18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793

CAGR (base year 2000)


NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor

Valueindicator 2000 2008 2016

Source Bank of Italy and Cerved rating Agency elaboration

Credit activity to be expanded interest rates to remain at very low levels

As of December 31st 2016 the volume of bank loans

granted to Italian non-financial corporations amounted to

euro8604 billion

The period 2000-2016 was characterized by two different

trends from 2000 to 2011 the annual outstanding loans

value increased by 841 (euro454 billion reaching in 2011 its

highest level ever of euro993 billion thanks to 57 CAGR far

above the Italian GDP growth) whilst in the period from

2012 to 2016 loans decreased by 134 (euro130 billion)

reflecting a negative -28 CAGR The loan reduction hit

sharply construction and manufacturing (accounting

for about 400 of all loans) which experienced -227

and -135 decrease in loan volumes whilst agriculture

forestry and fishing and wholesale and retail trade

(including repairs of motor vehicles and motorcycles)

had more limited loan contraction (-08 and -53

respectively)

In the observed period due to the negative impact of the

global financial crisis 200708 and to structural changes in

the world economic and financial environment a radical

decrease in interest rates was recorded In 2017 the

interest rates charged to Italian non-financial corporates

were on average less than half compared to those charged

in 2000 In the medium term low interest rates will remain

a positive factor fostering investments and consumption

Non-performing loans to be further reduced due to innovative measures

The credit crunch had a huge and dramatic impact on

the Italian economy hitting especially small businesses

which are not able to survive in a radically changed market

conditions The evidence of such outcome can be seen not

only through the decreased number of active companies

but also via the enormously increased volume of the

non-performing loans (NPLs) In particular these loans

amounted to euro324 billion at the end of 2016 of which euro154

billion were granted to the non-financial corporations as

shown in table 1

Following the principles outlined in the ECB guidelines

published in March in 2017 Italian Banks made significant

progress in reducing the amount of the NPLs ndash estimated

to be over euro50 billion debt reduction Any further actions

aimed to improve the banking balance sheets should not

increase the financial hardship of still operating companies

North - East SouthNorth - West Center Islands

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio

Source Bank of Italy and Cerved Rating Agency elaboration

20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19

Modest role of italian equity capital markets

Despite the number of listed companies increasing

from 297 to 421 in the period 2000-2017 the role

of the stock markets remains modest in Italy

As of December 31st 2017 the market capitalization

was euro640 billion (375 of the estimated Italian GDP

in 2017) representing only 782 of the overall

market capitalization recorded in 2000 (equal

to euro818 billion 687 of GDP) mainly due to

an unfavorable economic cycle in the observed

period

This situation shows the structural weaknesses of

the Italian economic and financial system especially

when compared to other highly developed

European economies The low propensity to

raise equity capital through organized markets

is linked to an unfavorable macroeconomic and

fiscal framework as well as to the predominance

of SMEs mostly unfit for listing and presenting

cultural obstacles (ie company owners and managers are often reluctant to accept wider company control and

transparency)

Hence self-financing and bank borrowing remain the main sources of finance for Italian companies which are

generally speaking undercapitalized with a negative impact on their investment capabilities Very frequently the

lack of medium-long term financing means forces companies to focus their attention on running current activities

postponing or abandoning strategic projects fundamental for company growth

A wide range of innovative initiatives have been undertaken with the aim of fostering market based company

funding in particular

middot AIM (Alternative Investment Market) - a specialized market segment dedicated to SMEs growth (95 companies and

market capitalization around euro56 billion as of December 2017)

middot ELITE - a programme designed to help SMEs prepare and structure for the next stage of growth their through

access to long-term financing opportunities

middot PIR - Piani individuali di risparmio (Individual Savings Plan) - an innovative way to fund Italian SMEs by offering retail

investors resident in Italy tax incentives (full exemption of 260 income tax) if the savings stay invested for at least

five years A minimum of 700 of such credit assets must be invested in financial instruments issued by Italian or

foreign (EU and EEA) companies permanently established in Italy

FTSE (MIB)Enterprises

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005

Exhibit 21 Italian listed enterprised and FTSE (MIB) index trend

Source Borsa Italiana

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0

Capitalization of GDP

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Exhibit 22 Italian market capitalization of listed companies ( of GDP)


80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20


Italian debt capital market is growing but still remains behind needs

At the end of 2016 the outstanding amount of debt

securities issued by Italian financial and non-financial

corporations was euro8615 billion 510 of the countryrsquos

GDP The table below shows the breakdown by issuer

type of Italian German French British and United States

outstanding amounts of debt securities as of December

2016 issued by financial and non-financial corporations

with the respective debt-to-GDP ratio

Despite the outstanding debt at the end of 2016 being

almost double compared to 2000 it represents only 23

of its peak value reached in 2012 (euro1290 billion Exhibit

23) The main reason for such a significant debt reduction

is the huge bond reimbursement realized by banking

institutions from 2013 to 2016 and the related negative

net flow of debt securities (respectively -80 -153 -106

and -67 billion of euro as shown in Exhibit 24)

The decrease in debt securities funding of Italian banks

has been compensated by a wider use of deposits and

resources available under the Eurosystem refinancing

operations framework

The outstanding amount of debt securities issued by

non-financial corporations at the end of 2016 also

doubled its value with respect to the amount recorded

at the end of 2000 The main characteristic of this cluster

is the high concentration of issuancesdebt to a small

number of issuers

Due to both more favourable general economic

conditions and active ECB monetary policy bond yields

have decreased significantly providing room for a

convenient fund raising

Since the introduction of a new regulatory framework

(lsquoDecreto Svilupporsquo) in 2012 up to October 2017 Italian

market saw 300 small-size listed bond issues (ie so

called minibonds) amounting approximately to euro143

billion Issued mainly by SMEs they offer interesting

yields to institutional investors

) Source Business support SpA ndash Minibonditalyit

BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010

Banks debt securities outstanding

Banks Debt to GDP ratio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000

Table 2 Outstanding securities debt (euro Million)Debt-to-GDP ratio()

Financial corporates

Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Italy German rance United Kingdom United States

739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Source Bank of Italy

0

0

21


22



23

Data and method

This research focuses on Italian non-financial companies

with an annual turnover exceeding euro5 million With the

aim of using only reliable data joint stock and limited

liability companies have been considered only these

entities according to Italian law file complete annual

financial statements in the Chamber of Commerce

together with anagraphical company data other

legal forms such as unlimited partnerships and sole

proprietorships are not included in this sample due to

the lack of publicly available standardized financial data

We believe that this cutoff is reasonable and allows us to

perform a methodologically correct analysis In 2016 the

above mentioned companies despite representing only

42 of all registered and active joint stock and limited

liability companies accounted for 769 of their total

turnover

Moreover cluster specialization has been obtained by

NACE activity classification from A to J (thus not including

in the sample financial and insurance companies and

some service industries) The statistics regarding specific

industries provide important key data and enable us to

examine historical and prospective trends and cross-

sector comparisons

The Cerved database which contains legal anagraphical

financial and market information on all Italian registered

legal entities (approximately 6 million comprising 5

million active ones) was the most important database

used for this research Long time series and broad

homogenized and standardized data covering different

economic cycles were the building blocks to perform

the regression and predictive analysis

Historical and forecast macroeconomic data and

analysis performed by the International Monetary Fund

OECD the World Bank European Central Bank Bank

of Italy and ISTAT completed the dataset used for the

analysis

Several analyses were performed in order to examine

the structural differences within the sample in terms of

company legal form and geographical area (Exhibit 25)

company age (Exhibit 26) and company size and industry

As a result we verified a considerable heterogeneity of

companies in particular with regard to the company size

across various industries

The relevant observation period comprises the years

between 2000 and 2016 Table 3 describes some

characteristics of the sample

Exhibit 25 Sample break-down by legal form and geographic area (2016)

Joint stock Company

Limited liability Company

Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33

Table 3 Sample characteristics 2000-2016

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

Turnover gt euro5 million(industry

from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt

euro5 million(industry

from A to J)


Entreprises Turnover billion

2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007

CERVED RATING AGENCY SpA | Italian non-financial companies economic Outlook 2018

24


Furthermore in order to guarantee more detailed and

accurate analyses and projections we decided to create

a static pool to show consistently long time horizon

economic trends (17 years) by sealing off all the active

companies over the 2000-2016 horizon

The outcome obtained by considering the behaviour of

specific variables related to the companies included in

the static pool was extended as a performance indicator

for the whole sample (turnover over euro5 million and

industry from A to J)

According to the European Communityrsquos definition of

SMEs using annual turnover and employee headcount

as quantitative criteria the initial sample of companies

and the static pool can be classified by size classes on

the basis of the financial statements for the year 2016

as shown in Table 4

For the sake of this analysis we defined specific size

classes for each industry thus deviating from the

European Commissionrsquos recommendation which

presents undifferentiated upper and lower bounds of

quantitative criteria for SMEs in all industries To define

the thresholds of such classes we used both a statistical

approach (a specific cluster procedure by minimizing

the within-cluster turnover standard deviation) and a

judgmental approach by relying on the experience and

opinion of our industry expert analysts Table 5 shows

the results of such analysis referring to the sample in

2016 (45288 entities) and the NACE sections from A

to J Moreover the NACE section C and G were further

disaggregated into sub-industry classes as shown in

Exhibit 27 in order to consider the specific business

differences within these NACE sections thus ensuring

a good fit and a satisfactory accuracy of the estimation

Exhibit 26 Sample break-down by company age classes

0-2 Years 2-5 Years 5-10 Years 10-20 Years gt20 YearsSource Cerved database and Cerved Rating Agency elaboration

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

A = AgricolutreB=Mining and quarryingC=ManufacturingD=Electricity and gasE=Water supplyF=ConstructionG=Wholesale and retail tradeH=Transporting and storageI=Accomodation and food serviceJ=ICT

Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool

Enterprises(Turnover gt euro5 million)

Enterprises(Turnover gt euro5 millionindustry from A t J)

Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry

B-Mining and quarryingAutomotive

Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500

ChemistryamppharmaceuticsClothingEquipmentFood Beverage and TabaccoHeavy ManifacturingOther Manifacturing

ICTTextile

Paper Packaging ampForest products

C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion

H-Transportig and storageI-Accommodation and food service activities

J-Information and communication

D-Electricity gas steam and aircoditioning supply

G-Wholesale and reatail traderepair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

E-Water supply sewerage waste management and emediation activities

Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)

Source Cerved database and Cerved Rating Agency elaboration

60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250

5 lt T lt 185 lt T lt 305 lt T lt 265 lt T lt 205 lt T lt 37

5 lt T lt 335 lt T lt 40


20 lt T lt 80

36 lt T lt 26035 lt T lt 26544 lt T lt 270

40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25

Exhibit 28 shows the breakdown of macro industries

analysed including disaggregation of the NACE section C

(manufacturing) and G (wholesale and retail trade repair

of motor vehicles and motorcycles)

In order to carry out the analysis and projections this study

is focused on we used simple multiple linear regression

model for each industry and company size classes

considering macroeconomic and individual companiesrsquo

economic and financial data

The analysis enables us to develop an econometric

model used to estimate likely credit quality changes (in

terms of rating class and probability of default) for single

industries and company size classes

Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive

Chemistry amp pharmaceutics

Clothing

Equipment

Food Beverage and Tabacco

Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture

Paper Packaging amp Forest Products

ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive

Chemistry amp pharmaeutics

Clothing

Equipment

Food beverage and Tabacco

Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100

Exhibit 28 Sample break-down by industry (2016)


26


Performance indicators to improve further

The annual financial statements available through public

registers provide a clear economic and financial picture

of the Italian joint-stock and limited liability non-financial

companies The individual historical data available from

2000 to 2016 enriched with 2017 preliminary results and

with the expected 2018 macroeconomic scenario enabled

us to build up the 2017 and 2018 projections regarding

the following four performance indicators related to the

analyzed sample 1) growth rate - revenues YoY change

2) EBITDA margin 3) net financial debtEBITDA and 4) net

financial debtEquity Afterwards the median values of the

resulting data were used to obtain the summary output

which we consider as a representative proxy for the overall

market

From 2000 to 2016 the observed companies experienced

a very irregular trend both in terms of growth rate and

EBITDA margin In the aftermath of the global financial crisis

the lowest growth rate value (-120) was recorded in 2009

manufacturing transporting - storage and wholesale and

retail trade were the industries showing the biggest fall of

business volume (-155 -121 and -104 respectively)

whilst water supply accommodation and food service and

electricity and gas showed the highest level of resilience to

the adverse economic and financial environment (-01

-23 and ndash26 respectively) Exhibit 29 shows that in

terms of median value there are no significant differences

in the growth rate taking into consideration company size

classes as we previously defined them Only from 2010 the

growth rates turned positive but still remaining below the

levels recorded in 2000

The analysis of the EBITDA margin changes in the same

period also does not highlight significant differences

between large companies and SMEs as shown in Exhibit

30 The lowest median EBITDA margin value (52) was

recorded in 2012 regarding in particular accommodation

and food service transporting and storage and agriculture

sectors (28 40 52 respectively) while electricity

and gas ICT and water supply were relatively immune to

the unfavorable economic and financial circumstances

(showing 113 109 and 105 EBITDA margin

respectively) At the end of 2016 the median EBITDA margin

(60) still remains below the levels recorded in 2000 (72)

Positive trends emerging from the last publicly available

financial statements (2016) the 2017 preliminary results

and the optimistic macroeconomic forecasts for 2018

confirm improvement of the Italian economy Looking

ahead we expect the Italian non-financial companies to

continue to experience gradual recovery in 2018 They are

going to take advantage of the favorable global economic

cycle low interest rates and supportive regulations that

inter alia foster the use of alternative non-bank financial

sources for company funding The financial resources raised

through Individual Savings Plans (PIR ndash Piani individuali di

risparmio) introduced by the 2017 Budget Law are driven

in primis by a favorable tax regime for savers and might

become an important additional source for SMEs funding

injecting new liquidity The government objective fixed euro68

billion as a target value and in 2017 nearly euro10 billion had

already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5

Exhibit 29 Growth rate (revenue YoY change) by size classes (median)

medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

EBITDA margin by size classes (median)

medium small

27

So far one of the main obstacles PIR are facing is the limited

number of available assets which may lead to a possible

concentration of this financial resources in a small share of

the market comprising mainly relatively large companies

as shown by the early data in 2017

Another obstacle to rapid adoption of the newly available

financial resources is the lack of a standardized and broadly

accepted methodology for the risk assessment of potential

bond issuers

Generally speaking in 2018 we expect SMEs to contribute

more significantly to growth employment and innovation

whilst on average the respective EBITDA margin will remain

broadly stable (as shown in Exhibit 31) However 2018 will

still be a challenging year for SMEs and innovative startup

companies as they will have to face tougher barriers in

accessing bank credit andor approaching capital markets

compared to large companies We also expect some new

innovative solutions aimed at meeting SMEs financial needs

to become effective the SMEs current financial structure

together with new business opportunities prove their

ability in terms of rational use of the additional financial

resources

The new investments will allow most industries to thrive

also assisted by the Italian Governmentrsquos adoption of the

National Industry 40 Plan

The companies which will take up this opportunity may

improve their cash-flows even in the short-medium term

Finally companies with strong international market

positioning and large product diversification will have

stronger sales and margins growth

The key ratio values recorded from 2000 to 2016 related to

the analyzed entities show the improved financial health of

the companies proving good capability to strengthen their

equity base as shown in Table 6

Growth rate (2016)Medium

Total

Small Large

Growth rate (2018)Growth rate (2017)


50

40

Exhibit 31 Growth rate and EBITDA margin forecast by size classes

EBITDA margin (2016)EBITDA margin (2018)

EBITDA margin (2017)

40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28


The recorded financial ratios in the 2000-2016 horizon

indicate that on average

middot liquidity maintained a satisfactory level in the whole

observed period due to the positive economic cycle in

2017 and 2018 we expect a slight improvement in the ratio

middot the EBITDAinterest coverage ratio almost doubled its

value in 2016 compared to what was recorded in 2000

primarily due to a general reduction in the interest rates

particularly in the last three years we believe that in 2017

and 2018 the average ratio value will remain roughly at the

same level recorded in 2016

middot in 2016 ROE shows further improvement but is still

slightly lower compared to the value recorded at the

beginning of the observed period mainly due to the equity

base strengthening trend

middot Equity Ratio rose from 250 to 350 due to a significant

increase of equity capital in 2018 we expect further

strengthening of the ratio

middot Financial LiabilitiesTotal Assets ratio remained mostly

unchanged ndash financial debts representing roughly 30 of

the total assets

A positive trend regarding the net financial debt was also

observed in fact in 2016 70 of the sample improved their

NFDEBITDA and 73 the NFDEquity

Positive performances were found especially in the SMEs

segment as shown in Exhibit 32 in particular referring to

NFDEquity small and medium-sized companies recorded

a positive trend standing respectively at 092 and 089 in

2016 compared to 132 and 136 in 2000

Hence the financial risk profile appears to be well balanced

leaving no room for specific concerns regarding the

prospects of the Italian non-financial companies in 2018

In 2016 the median values for the total sample referring to

NFDEquity and NFDEBITDA remained respectively at 089

and 389 levels respectively

Looking ahead we expect these indicators to remain at

healthy levels in 2017 and 2018 with a slight improvement

in NFDEBITDA and a broadly stable level of the NFDEquity

ratio as shown in Exhibit 33

NFDEBITFA (2016) NFDEBITFA (2017)NFDEBITFA (2018)

40

Exhibit 33 NFDEquity and NFDEBITDA forecast by size classes


404

20

25

45

35

30

NFDequity (2016) NFDequity (2017)NFDequity (2018)

05

06

09

10

08

07

Exhibit 32 NFDEquity and NFDEBITDA by size classes (median)

largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

total largemediumsmall total


2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29

Growth and profitability improvement spanned over all sectors

Exhibit 34 shows the relative positioning of the 10

macro-industries in the short-medium term considering

the median values related to revenue growth rate and

EBITDA margin

The historical median values are calculated on the basis

of financial data obtained from the annual financial

reports 2014-2016 filed in the Chamber of Commerce

public registers the projected median values for 2017

and 2018 are the result of the analysis of this study

As expected there are significant differences in

positioning between different industries in terms of

both historical and projected values

In 2018 we expect manufacturing and accommodation and

food services to maintain top positions already reached in

2016 and 2017

For the electricity gas mining and quarrying industry

2018 may be the turning point showing the first positive

signals after experiencing some difficulties over the last

few years

None of the other industries show significant changes in

2018 compared to their 2016 positioning


A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

Exhibit 34 Growth rate and EBITDA margin by industry

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120

A=Agricolture B=Mining and quarrying C=Manifacturing D=Electricity and gas E=Water supply F=Construction G=Wholesale and retail trade H=Transporting and storage I=Accomodation and food service J=ICT

D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30


Further strenthening in companiesrsquo financial structure

Exhibit 35 shows the relative positioning of the 10 macro

industries in the short-medium term considering the

median values related to NFDEBITDA and NFDEquity

ratios






There are even more significant differences in

positioning between industries regarding NFDEBITDA

and NFDEquity ratios when compared to growth rate

and EBITDA margin differences

Generally in the observed period there is no evidence of

significant changes among industries considering their

relative positioning related to NFDEBITDA and NFD

Equity ratios

In 2018 we expect accommodation and food services

and information and communication services to

maintain top positions already reached in 2016 and

presumably confirmed in 2017

Exhibit 35 NFDEquity and NFDEBITDA by industry

2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31

Exhibit 36 Equity ratio by industry

Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J

Exhibit 37 EBITDA interest coverage by industry

Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ

Liquidity ratio Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

Table 7 Liquidity ratio by industry Table 8 ROE by industry



32


Agriculture

Considering the recent price decline for agricultural

products putting EBITDA margin under pressure for

most of the industry participants we anticipate a slow

revenue growth in 2018 We also foresee more stable

margins in 2018 and investments to continue at a faster

pace in the near future mainly aimed at transforming the

agricultural activities into a high-tech industry Climate

and cultural changes are the main exogenous risks that

may negatively influence the sector

Mining and quarrying

Over the last few years the mining industry has been

challenged by record low metal prices and this has

resulted in a weak growth of supply and a cut in

investments especially in the new mines opening We

foresee a modest revenue growth in 2018 supported

by more stable prices rather than by government

infrastructural investments Margin pressure will remain

mostly unchanged in 2018 We do not expect a significant

increase in capital expenditure for most companies

while only a minority of industry participants will invest

in new capacities searching for new growth opportunities

by introducing new higher margin outputs Overall we

anticipate relatively stable key financial indicators

Manufacturing

We believe that in 2018 Italian manufacturing

representing 2nd European and 7th world player in 2016

will remain the beating heart of the national economy

In our view the expansion of internal demand the

improvement of business and customer confidence and

the wider export opportunities are the key drivers for

revenue growth (up to nearly 30) Despite the natural

selection the occurred during the economic recession

domestic competition and especially the competition

from lower income countries will remain challenging in

2018 creating further profitability pressure especially in

some highly fragmented segments

As a conditio sine qua non for market survival many

companies will be involved in a ldquowinning the innovation

gamerdquo process translated into a considerable capex

expenditure directed at process optimization which

inevitably must be accompanied by innovative marketing

and commercial strategies The companies especially

smaller ones which are not ready lsquoto play the gamersquo

remaining risk averse are likely to fall behind

Key financial indicators referring to the industry in terms

of net financial debt to equity and net financial debt to

EBITDA are likely to remain overall stable in 2018

In our view the best performing manufacturing industries

in 2018 will be the following

Automotive

extensive vehicles replacement process in 2018

high competition pressure China maintaining a key role

high level of innovation in mobility and connectivity

new strategic partnerships and MampAconservative stand towards EBITDA margin improvement

Chemistry amp Pharmaceutics

solid macroeconomic fundamentals will support

the revenue growth driven mainly by large companies

on average a stable EBITDA margin of about 10

is expected global presence is a must to achieve higher

level of profitability

RampD remain key factors for further market expansion

moderate level of MampA operations in 2018 slowing

down when compared to those carried out in the

previous year

Machinery amp Equipment

revenue growth in 2018 up to nearly 25 reflecting

the fact that all manufactures remain focused on RampD

and NPI (new product introduction)

cost management strategies are going to persist

but generally speaking with no significant impact on

EBITDA margin in 2018

heavy equipment manufactures still under pressure in

2018 to provide engineering capability and capacity

33

Energy and gas

Italian companies operating in the energy industry are

facing a complex market environment with many open

questions about risks related to regulations a drop

in consumption high competition levels and EBITDA

erosion

Generally we expect a more stable landscape in 2018 in

terms of commodity prices and consumption However

risk regarding prices and volumes will remain strong

resulting in a higher volatility of revenues In our view

the current margin pressure is unlikely to ease over the

next two years The final overcoming of the sondashcalled

ldquoMaggior Tutela Regimerdquo may lead to almost zero margin

for the retail operators We expect industry participants

to continue to focus their attention on cost efficiency and

on protecting profitability by embracing new business

models and examining the role that digital technology

can play in improvement of EBITDA margins We believe

that the above described strategies will be a central

topic for the operators intending to attract capital We

also believe that energy producers could see a slight

debt increase in 2018 aimed at improving productivity

and synergies Finally in 2018 we envisage a significant

number of MampA operations in the sector led by synergy

effects such operations might produce

Water supply waste management and sewerage

In recent years the water supply waste management

and Italian sewerage industry has recorded a slower

growth compared to the pre-crisis period However

due to the last two yearsrsquo important investments in the

water infrastructure waste sorting and recycling Italy

ranks as one of the top European countries in terms

of growth rate of recycling and packaging recovery

We believe that the expected general increase in

industrial output will produce a slight growth in water

consumption and waste treatment The demand for

sustainable solutions will continue to persist requiring

new investment in technologies based on a customer-

centric and sustainable approach aimed at improving

efficiencies and facilitating reuse Expectations also

reflect our view in terms of wider government interest

and spending in this industry We expect profitability

to remain broadly in line with the results obtained in

2016

Construction

After a weak increase in revenues recorded by the

construction industry operators in 2016 and the

modest result anticipated in 2017 both reflecting

a deteriorating demand and decreased volumes of

bank loans (mainly those for small and medium-

sized companies) we expect 2018 to be the turning

point for this industry We foresee that the volume of

residential and private non-residential constructions

will remain at relatively low levels in 2018 and that

the positive trend in housing renovation and public

works investments will continue taking advantage of

the allocated funds established by the Budget Law for

2017 Small and medium-sized businesses focused on

residential construction may face a slight profitability

erosion while we believe some growth in EBITDA

margin may be recorded by large Italian companies

operating internationally Due to the high perceived

risk historically there has been a strong financial

market mistrust of the construction companies which

we believe is likely to ease over the coming years

Wholesale and retail trade

During the crisis period wholesale and retail trade

industry faced a sudden interruption of the gradual

growth that had taken place up to that moment mainly

due to a loss in real purchase power and in consumer

confidence also translated into profitability erosion

In 2016 the data showed how the industry is moving

toward a recovery period Looking forward in 2018 we

expect to record a steady revenue growth supported

by an increase in global trade and improved consumer

confidence Despite the foreseen growth operators

will continue to face consistent pressure mainly in the

retail segment due to the high proliferation of new retail

purchase channels and market fragmentation


34


Transportation and Storage

After a troubled 2016 characterized by an overcapacity

and a decrease in commodity demand hitting shipping

revenues in particular we foresee a moderate overall

recovery in 2018 driven mainly by an increase in

international shipments and air traffic The growing

number of innovative startups will continue to persist

increasing the competitive pressure in the industry We

anticipate a constant growth of e-commerce enabling a

quick reaction of on-line retailer and logistics providers

We believe that operators will continue to invest in

new high-tech solutions experimenting new models of

mobility and smart logistics

Despite very strong competition we expect the median

operating margins to remain steady However global

political uncertainties and related risks are strong with

possible quick and sharp negative impact on business

volumes and margins of the companies operating in

these industries

Accommodation and food services activities

In the last two years operators in the accommodation

and food service activities industry mainly medium

and small sized enterprises have seen steady revenue

growth and satisfactory profitability ratios Many

operators were focused on reviewing their business

models and offering additional services to their

customers a necessary strategy to maintain or expand

market positioning strengthen margins and improve

customer experience We expect the revenue growth

to continue in 2018 with a minimal median margin

improvement We believe accommodation and food

service activities will attract new capital investments

in 2018 to help the ongoing transformation process

and improve the accommodation infrastructure and

services

Information and communication technologies

The Italian information and communication technology

industry took longer to recover from the economic

crisis recording overall a negative median growth

rate until 2014 Software services and innovation

technology were the major contributors to revenue

growth (as a percentage) in 2016

Over the forecast period we foresee a modest revenue

growth for the ICT operators as a whole while the

technology industry will continue to achieve rapid

growth focusing on maintaining the competitive pace

of innovation In our view a key challenge for the ICT

operator may be the availability of matching skills

The outlook is relatively stable in terms of profitability

and key financial indicators

The following two pages show the details of the

previously discussed key performance indicators

35

Exhibit 38 Growth rate and EBITDA margin manifacturing sectors

-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120

1=Automotive 2=Chemistryamppharmaceutics 3=Clothing 4=Equipment 5=Food beverage and Tabacco 6=Heavy Manifacturing 8=Paper and Packaging 9=Tecnology and Telecomunication 10=Textile industry

6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2

50AutomotiveChemistryamppharmaceuticsClothingEquipmentFood Beverage and TabaccoHeavy ManifacturingOther ManifacturingPaper PackagingTecnology and TelecomunicationTextile industry

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

Growth rate Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

AutomotiveChemistryamppharmaceuticsClothingEquipmentFood Beverage and TabaccoHeavy ManifacturingOther ManifacturingPaper PackagingTecnology and TelecomunicationTextile industry

EBITDA margin Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08

Exhibit 39 NFDEquity and NFDEBITDA for manifacturing sectors

2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080

NFDEQUITY Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104

NFDEBITDA Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36


Exhibit 40 Growth rate and EBITDA margin for wholesale and retail trade sectors

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70

1=Automotive 2=Retail 3=Wholesale

40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11

Exhibit 41 NFDEquity and NFDEBITDA for wholesale and retail trade sectors


21

3

37

Ratings will remain broadly stable

The following section presents a risk profile analysis

based on Cerved Rating Agencyrsquos outstanding and

monitored public and private ratings issued from

2013 to 2017 on Italian non-financial companies

and operating in the industries discussed in this

study (data as of 31 December)

Exhibit 42 and Table 9 show an overview of 1-year

effective default rates over the 2000-2017 horizon

related to the sample bankruptcy and other legal

proceedings and debt restructurings as default

events

The default rate trend shows a general

improvement from 2014 onwards both by

company size classes and by industry however

considering the entire sample the overall default

rate still remains higher when compared to its pre-

crisis level especially regarding smaller companies

operating in the construction sector

Exhibit 43 shows the effective default rates over

2013-2017 horizon based on Cerved Rating

Agencyrsquos definition which considers as default

events

middot bankruptcy and other legal proceedings

middot debt restructuring

middot missed or delayed disbursement of a contractually

required interest or principal payment ie missed

payment on bonds material protests (on cheques

or trade bills) or prejudicial acts (judicial mortgages

distraint of property)

The effective default rates over the 2013-2017

horizon show decreasing trend and satisfy the

monotonicity constraint regarding all Cerved

Rating Agencyrsquos rating classes (Exhibit 44)

totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0

Exhibit 42 Avarage 1-year default rate by size over 2000-2017 horizon

medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing

Electricity gas steam and air conditioning supplyWater supply sewerage

Construction

Wholesale and retail trade repair of motorTransporting and storage

Accomodation and food service activities

Information and communication

24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022


Table 9 Default rate by industry over 2000-2017 horizon

Total

NACE Average2008-2015

Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Exhibit 43 1-year default rate over 2013-2017 horizon

20172013 2014 2015


38


The analysis of historical rating distributions in the

same period shows clear differences in terms of modal

rating class by company size As shown in Exhibit 43

the modal rating class for the large companies is A31

B11 for the medium and B12 for small companies

(considering company size classes as they have been

defined ad hoc by Cerved Rating Agency for the

purposes of this study)

Overall the corporate rating distribution in the


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0

Exhibit 44 Rating distribution frequency by size classes

large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10

medium smallRating 2013 total Rating 2017 total Rating 2017 forecast

observed period is skewed towards the investment-

grade rating categories (ie Cerved Rating Agency

rating classes from A11 to B12) representing 700 of

the whole sample 250 is concentrated in the safety

(A rating classes) and 450 in the solvency (B11-B12)

classes

We anticipate the rating distribution to remain

broadly unchanged in 2018 with the rating migration

concentrated mainly in the B category

39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0

Exhibit 45 Rating distribution frequency by area of risk - Total companies

C11-C21 [Risk]B21-B22 [Vulnerability]

B11-B12 [Solvency]I nvestment GradeA11-A31 [Safety]

2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0

Exhibit 46 Rating distribution frequency by area of risk - Large companies


B11-B12 [Solvency] Investment GradeA11-A31 [Safety]

5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0

Exhibit 47 Rating distribution frequency by area of risk - Medium companies



3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0

Exhibit 48 Rating distribution frequency by area of risk - Small companies



1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40


Slight improvement in general creditworthiness

In our opinion in 2018 the creditworthiness of the

observed Italian non-financial companies will remain

stable for almost 86 of entities Migration of ratings is

expected to be moderate resulting in approximately 14

of rating upgrades (9) and downgrades (5) at the end

of 2018 compared to the outstanding ratings at the end

of 2017 The vast majority of the rating changes (921)

will be limited to one-class migration as shown in the

1-year projected transition matrix (Table 10) We believe

that more than one third of the expected downgrades

will be concentrated in the energy gas mining and

construction sectors Over the last years the average

credit profile of companies active in these industries has

been relatively weak and due to the forecast market and

regulatory conditions we do not envisage opportunities

for a significant risk profile improvement in 2018

Despite the expected rating migrations for individual

entities in 2018 the current industry modal rating

classes are unlikely to change

On the other hand stable and positive outlooks will

prevail in the manufacturing industry wholesale and

retail trade and accommodation and food service This

is due to the increase in the number of companies

active in these sectors which will maintain andor

improve their business and financial performances

Indeed as shown in Table 11 in 2018 the rating outlook

remains differentiated by industry whilst in terms of

the expected general probability of default we foresee

a modest improvement (349) compared to the one

recorded in 2017 (366)

Table 10 1-year transition matrix


2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41

The information and data supporting Cerved Rating Agency rating opinions related research and credit opinions originate from sources Cerved Rating Agency considers to be accurate however Cerved Rating Agency cannot independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data in every instance This publication may not be reproduced retransmitted or distributed in any form without the prior written consent of Cerved Rating Agency Cerved Rating Agency assumes no liability for correctness completeness and topicality of the information contained in this publication The analyses underlying this study do not provide advice of any sort

26

n

6670

486

59

Exhibit 49 Ratings outlooks by size

Large

Medium Positive Stable Negative

Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small

Source Cerved database and Cerved Rating Agency elaboratio

Table 11 Ratings and probability of default 2018 outlook by industry


NACE Micro industryDowngrade


900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total

Chemistryamppharmaceutics

ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total

Tecnology Media ampTelecomunication


C-Manifacturing

D-Electricity gas steam and air conditioningsupply

F-Construcion

H-Transportig and storageI-Accommodation and food service activitiesJ-Information and communication

G-Wholesale and reatail traderepair of motor vehicles and motor-cycles

E-Water supply sewerage waste

Average ForecastPD 2018

Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade



Cerved Rating Agency SpAVia dellrsquoUnione Europea n 6A-6B20097- San Donato Milanese (MI)

Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458

ratingagencycervedcom

Rating Agency

Dati societari

Rating Agency

HEADQUARTERS

Cerved Rating Agency SpAVia dellrsquoUnione Europea 6A 6B

San Donato Milanese (MI)

COMPANYrsquoS STATUTORY DATA

Subscribed and paid-in share capital of 15000000 eurosMilan REA No 2035639

Tax ID and VAT No IT08445940961Website ratingagencycervedcom

Contact Information








Table of contents

Preface

Assumptions

Executive summary





3

4

6

8

10

12

22

3

Preface







4


Assumptions

5



recorded in 2017














credit conditions





2018




Assumptions


6


Executive summary

7










forecasts








employment




industry

Executive summary


8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

Contact Information








Table of contents

Preface

Assumptions

Executive summary





3

4

6

8

10

12

22

3

Preface







4


Assumptions

5



recorded in 2017














credit conditions





2018




Assumptions


6


Executive summary

7










forecasts








employment




industry

Executive summary


8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

Table of contents

Preface

Assumptions

Executive summary





3

4

6

8

10

12

22

3

Preface







4


Assumptions

5



recorded in 2017














credit conditions





2018




Assumptions


6


Executive summary

7










forecasts








employment




industry

Executive summary


8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

3

Preface







4


Assumptions

5



recorded in 2017














credit conditions





2018




Assumptions


6


Executive summary

7










forecasts








employment




industry

Executive summary


8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

4


Assumptions

5



recorded in 2017














credit conditions





2018




Assumptions


6


Executive summary

7










forecasts








employment




industry

Executive summary


8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

5



recorded in 2017














credit conditions





2018




Assumptions


6


Executive summary

7










forecasts








employment




industry

Executive summary


8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

6


Executive summary

7










forecasts








employment




industry

Executive summary


8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

7










forecasts








employment




industry

Executive summary


8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

8



9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

9














2018

Trade to increase















Metals Price Index

Source IMF ECB OECD

20022000 20062004 2008 20122010 F201820162014

50

0

150

100

200

250

1

0

3

2

5

4

7

6

Exhibit 2




20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

2

0

8

4

10

12

14

100

0

300

200

400

500


EPU Index World

VIX Source FRED

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

50

0

100

150

200

250

5

0

15

10

20

25

30

Exhibit 4

Euro Area

EMDEs

United StatesWorld


China


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

1

0

3

2

5

4

6



10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

10



11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

11












improvement in 2018









sector








(approximately 14)

Germany

France

ItalyEuro Union

Spain

UK


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 F20182017

20

0

60

40

80

100

0

-1

2

1

3

4



Source IMF ECB OECD

2011 2015 2017

-2

-2

-3

-1

-1

1

1

0

2

2

3

100

0

300

200

250

400

450

500


2010

350

150

50

20182013 2014 20162012

Euro Area

Source ECB

20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 2017

500

0

1500

2500

2000

3000

1000

10000

9900

9800

9700

9600

9500

9400

9300

9200


20112010 20132012 2014 20162015 20182017

BCI euro area

CCI euro area

Source IMF ECB OECD

96

95

98

97

99

101

102

100

103

0

-1

2

1

4

3

5

Exhibit 6


12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

12



13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

13


































Source World Bank

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1500

1000

500

0

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

13000

9500

10000

11000

12000

12500

10500

11500




Source OECD

-2

-4

-6

-8

2

0

4

6


2000 2002 2014 20162004 2006

GDP growth

20122008 2010


14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

14






(63)

























technical services


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000


Total


Exhibit 12


2000

635286 13

1059005 22

639778 13

589707 12

183 856 4 226964 5 150772 3

1354998 28

965452 19

747738 14

495247 10

750863 15

150888 3

379899 7 247187 5

1408721 27

2016

C Manufacturing

F Construction





X Other

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

15





Italian economy




























same period in 2016





-6



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10729 108311163612287

10338

59697307

9189

1108812022

12437

14031

1560814682

13459

11937


1500

1000

500

02000

940 994 1125 1211

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2500

3500

3000

4000

2000

1110

16691540

18702094 2057

2342 2475

3593

3132

2720

1993 1866


1211

100 45000

4000090

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02015

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02013 2014

Protets

703

297

41438

Total


Prejudicial acts

2016 2017

665

335

34527

570

43032660

527

473

546

454

2523828929



16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

16



























Source OECD and IMF

2003 2006 20092000 2012 2015 F2018

2

1

-1

0

4

3

5

6

Exhibit 16




Source OECD and IMF

20062000 2015 F2018-5

-15

-20

5

0

-10

10

15


20122003 2009







20062000

-20

-30

10

0

-10

20

30

20

25

15

10

0

5

F2018


2003 2009 2012 2015

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

17






at the end of 2000)







50 of Italian GDP
















factors













fully executive

Euro area

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


France



18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

18


Table 1

Amount ( 407 312

-327

327754

216074 190881

163248 345604188167

869

1543

2213

1793



NPL ratio ()

Ndeg debtors

Averae debt debtor






euro8604 billion














respectively)



















shown in table 1








2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

NPLs ratio


20

1816

14

1210

8

6

42

0

446393

euro billion)

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

19











period










transparency)
















2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100029681 29525

14623

1765216121

12259

13512

16048

15988

19012

21428

21853

2185322232

16954

297 294 295 279 282278 311 336 332 332 328 323 326344 342 356 387 421

19483

22886

26056

31005



300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

5000

0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 20132012 20152014 201720160

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000



80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

8184

5923

354 365418 473

524475

239301 275

210233

287 295348

318375

4580 4875

5809

6766

77857336

37474571

4251

3324

44664678

56765249

6400

3655

474

68


20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

20




























number of issuers












BanksTotal


2006 20082000

-200000

200000

250000

-150000

-100000

150000

100000

-50000

50000

02012 2014 20162002 2004 2010




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0201620142012201020082006200420022000



Total

Debtsecurities

outstanding


739

123

862

440 340 470

21

680380

40

1279 1331 4 50

880

30

14271

14820

549180

10202767

590

19211436

15770

510

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debtsecurities

outstanding

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()

Debt toGDP ()


0

0

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

21


22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

22



23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

23

Data and method
















turnover







sector comparisons













analysis












Joint stock Company


Area 1 (Northwest)

Area 3 (Center)

Area 2 (Northeast)

Area 4 (South)

39

20

27

14

33

67

33


TotalTurnover

gt euro5million


from A to J)

TotalTurnover

gt euro5million

ofTotal

Turnover gt


from A to J)



2000 659867700717738558772442812025847334883122915172937018949708965744969581

953505945825922513883224

4215144587462234694749640518205596459226595385246754808563745362752074519385289450123

3686139038411864118843547454704921752274526974633848778504734806246843468384771845288

16151740177018472002212923302477256822562421257025202446243224392295

12661362139214561588169818752000208317861944208720541992198419871905

11141205124013041430152316891801189716191764191218831839183518371765

689693700

716

706714

725

718729744748752754753769

727739

200120022003200420052006

200820092010201120122013201420152016

2007


24

















as shown in Table 4




















0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ


Small

Annul Turnover

Empolyees

Static Pool



Medium Large

lt 50 lt 250lt 36774 11113

1005333223

8741

2236

2012

154818645

gt euro50 million

gt 250

lt euro50 million


NACE Micro industry


Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

T gt 480

T gt 80

T gt 260

T gt 265T gt 270

T gt 230

T gt 120

T gt 80

T gt 43

T gt 65

T gt 106T gt 106

T gt 360T gt 155T gt 150T gt 100

T gt 120

T gt 225T gt 1400T gt 27500

T gt 1500


ICTTextile


C-Manifacturing

F-Construcion






Large (Turnover

in euro million)

Medium(Turnover

in euro million)

Small(Turnover

in euro million)


60 lt T lt 480 5 lt T lt 60

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 36

5 lt T lt 35

5 lt T lt 44

5 lt T lt 40

5 lt T lt 20

5 lt T lt 26

5 lt T lt 250




20 lt T lt 80


40 lt T lt 230

20 lt T lt 120

26 lt T lt 80

18 lt T lt 43

250 lt T lt 1500


27 lt T lt 120

58 lt T lt 225

100 lt T lt 27500 115 lt T lt

30 lt T lt 10626 lt T lt 106

25














Automotive

Retail

Wholesale

21

1366

1

42

1

26

35

232

6

A B C D

F G H I

46

7

21

1318

9

15

34

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacture


ICT

Textile industry

Large SmallMedium


0

Wholesale

Retail

Automotive

20 40 60 80 100

Automotive


Clothing

Equipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing


ICT

Textile

0 20 40 60 80 100

ABCDEFGHIJ

0 10 30 40 60 70 80 90 100



26
















market













































already been raised

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2014 20162000

5

20

10

0

15

-15

-10

-5


medium small

2008 2010 2012

totall arge


2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162000

7

10

9

8

6

5

4

3

7

10

9

8

6

5

4


medium small

27









bond issuers













resources














Total

Small Large



50

40




40

30

0

10

20

Medium

Total

Small Large

7570

65

0

6 5560

5550

4540


28






















the total assets




















40



404

20

25

45

35

30


05

06

09

10

08

07


largemediumsmall

2016

2015

2014

000 5 10 15

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007



2016

2015

2014

203 0 405 0

Average2008-2013

Average2000-2007

29





EBITDA margin











2016 and 2017




few years




A 50

57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637

BCDEFGHIJ

A 625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

4873687090592845

75120

456772928856

45

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102

EBITDAmarigin

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018Growthrate

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=68

Median=2100

20

40

60

80

100

120


D

B

E

FHA G

C

I

J


30






ratios













Equity ratios






2016E2017F2018

Median=37

Median=08500

030 5 070 9 111 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

10


EH

C

BF

G

A

D

J

I

A 150101113081112149151120

079131

123075088101097125123103

072079

114067083052090108119102

067076

113060080045089096114092

074069

125076080045089106109086

050060

127072080044091

108084

051056

128067079043093106107081

051051

BCDEFGHIJ

NFDEquity

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018

A 597219280305251301338250

153260

676394388342298453499349

254337

707482387293277498532337

277334

696392373254305484494308

231315

747401358330285544483294

183312

722390340341280511470290

178293

710380310329272492452281

177289

NFDEBITDA

BCDEFGHIJ

Median2000-07

Median2008-13

2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


106

31


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


05

10

20

30

15

25

3540

5045

AB C DE FG HI J


Average 2000-2007 2014 2015Average 2008-2013 2016


0

5

10

20

15

AB C DE FG HI J

A 1113140911151211

1408

1013131012131209

1208

1114151012131311

1309

1214151012151312

1309

1215161113161412

1409

BCDEFGHIJ


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016

A 0377677447858463

8960

0332

8145524536

4832

0342486042273848

3246

0537606853395765

4069

0743676559416378

5882

BCDEFGHIJ

ROE Median2000-07

Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016




32


Agriculture
























Manufacturing


























Automotive














previous year










33

Energy and gas





erosion






































2016

Construction




































34




















these industries
















services


















35


-70- 50 -30 -10 103 0

2016E2017F2018

50 70 90

Median=76

Median=3000

20

40

60

80

100

120


6

10 5

3

8

91

74

2


57599586886358

3849

3620083721

-110320

-1112

210322

-1814021122

1413

030124

-5010284025

0555

20-4614

-4607212105

0430

210328-2310203218

0832

2310300512233720

1637


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018



Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


625296

1441401016934

15352

504969

103121

916227

10639

4764676185562639

68112

487368

7090592845

75120

456772

9288562845

7898

4667759090573147

7698

4668769394583147

77102


2016E2017F2018

Median=30

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000000 020 040 060 080 100 120

Median=08


2

4 8

101

9

9

3

57



104146095152117112109

098087

087080116068118083088086

084078

075074104069107082080079

084083

072064100065105084122081

079081

082066104065105080091079

077082

081067103065105079087079

077081

076067101064104077083078

076080


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


258334222397249255259

315202

338313443305495363403412

480337

315306436328479373380397

482316

264269490303467366403383

515317

269243507090106127090106

106106

413343478088105127088105

105105

399333465086104127086104

104104


Median2008-13 2014 2015 2016 E 2017 F 2018


36



20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2016E2017F2018

Median=31

Median=33

0000

20

10

30

60

50

70


40

3

12

2016E2017F2018

Median=45

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

000050 070 090 110 130 150 170 190

Median=11



21

3

37












events











events












totall arge


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2015 2016 20172000 2001

5678

12

3

4

0


medium small

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mining and quarring

Manifacturing


Construction




24221809

5212

282915

2529

38533424

13027

454830

4838

36542537

15929

424421

4323

23461921

13226

293226

3022



Total


Average2000-2017 2016 2017

2016


C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


20172013 2014 2015


38












C21C12C11B22B21B12B11A11 A12 A13 A21 A22 A31

30

25

20

15

5

10

0


large

30

25

20

15

5

0

10







classes




39


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100543

2414

4407

4407

2636

4554 4558

2403 2311

535 527

90

10

0




2509 2604

704 4407706 4407716

324


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

985

5658

4407

3033 2992 2898

925 907

300 318

90

10

0




5783 5878

869 4407878 4407878


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

4407

4407

3626

4080

17591695

439 449

90

10

0




3571 3776

7044407780 4407786

456

1805

774

4113 4232

603


F20182017Average 2013-2016

60

20

30

40

50

80

70

100

2824

1900

4407

4673 4850 4761

2833 2754

600 633

90

10

0




1716 1852

657 4407657 4407661


40



































2017

A11

A31

B11

C11

C12

B21

C21

B22

B12

A12

A13

A21A22

F 2018A11 A12 A13 A31 B11 C11 C12B21 C21B22B12A21 A22

000 530

066

054 451034 435

027 753055 901

1033121247 1624

260 1038088

000

000000037

028

295

290

1063

179

455050647

043425

026490020208

000208

000152

000000

00000010000

9821

9318

92679015

87708583

81497646

8665

9617

9710

8605

419024

41


26

n

6670

486

59


Large


Small

21

13

Large

Medium

Small






900814

848

812

880812

847

813 172

170

174

144

8264 36

08

104 433 436

392 373

22724815

362 360

876

876

914

848

849

804

887

882

916

901835870899 64

866760

43

68

5659

58

47

61

49

74

78 75

14

50

37

36

5393

32

50

41

45

3899

77

91

316

372

355

364

308

491

326

318 296

331

312

381

367

359

322

495

452

433

403429

389

364369

363

313

452

323

594

38

315358

603

307

345 350

67 5318

469289 274

470

147

116

138

851

821AutomotiveRetail

Wholesale

Total


ClothingEquipment


Heavy Manifacturing

Other Manifacturing

Textile industry

Total



C-Manifacturing


F-Construcion





Expectedtrend

Average PD 2018

Ratings outlooks

Stabl pgrade




Tel +39 02 77541 - Fax +39 02 76020458


Rating Agency

ITALIAN NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018

Documents

Transcript of ITALIAN NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018