It is the best of times (and the worst of times)
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Transcript of It is the best of times (and the worst of times)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 2
Wow!(What a difference a decade makes)
• Empiricism has come of age– Radical Fringe Mainstream
• 1993: Workshop on Very Large Corpora (WVLC)– Intended to be a 1-time event– But so successful that it
evolved into a series of EMNLP conferences
• EMNLP-2004 received so many submissions that the program committee had to be expanded at the last minute– Success/Catastrophe
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Lonely Preaching to Choir
Interesting & Controversial
Responsibility; Attribute Dangerous Positions to Others
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The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962) – Kuhn (p.10)
• Paradigms– Examples from Physics
• Aristotle’s Physica• Ptolemy’s Almagest• Newton’s Principia and Optics• Franklin’s Electricity• Lavoisier’s Chemistry• Lyell’s Geology
• Two characteristics:1. Sufficiently unprecedented to attract an enduring group of
adherents from competing modes of scientific activity2. Simultaneously, sufficiently open-ended to leave all sorts of
problems for the redefined group of practitioners to resolve
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Organizational Innovations(Radical Mainstream)
• Late Submission Deadline– Immediately after ACL notifications
• ACL was rejecting good papers for bad reasons– Short review cycles Freshness
• Invest in the Future: Encourage Innovation– Chair (Energetic, Promising, Source of new ideas)– Co-chair (Established, Knows how it has been done)
• Avoid incremental papers– Reviewers prefer boring papers over radical ones– Reviewers do what reviewers do; chairs correction
• Inclusiveness: Diversity Growth (Sales)– Thankless chores Marketing carrots– 1/3 promising, 1/3 stability, 1/3 outreach– Hold conferences in Europe, Asia & America
Innovation
Checks & Balances
Short term ≠ Long term
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What Worked and What Didn’t?• Stay on msg: It is data, stupid!It is data, stupid!
– WVLC (Very Large) >> EMNLP (Empirical Methods)– If you have a lot of data,
• Then you don’t need a lot of methodology• Empiricism means diff things to diff people
1. Machine Learning (Self-organizing Methods)2. Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)3. Corpus-Based Lexicography
• Lots of papers on 1– EMNLP-2004 theme (error analysis) 2– Senseval grew out of 3
Kucera & Francis gave great invited talk
(but they couldn’t follow submitted talks)
Data
Methodology
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Word Sense Disambiguation (WSD) History
• Bar-Hillel (1960): – Abandoned Machine
Translation (MT)– Couldn’t see how to make
progress on WSD (pen)– Can’t translate without
disambiguating• bank (money) banque• bank (river) banc
• 1990s– Parallel text ≈ Labeled corpus
for supervised training and testing
– Isn’t it great the translators have WSD labeled all this data for us!
• Yarowsky:– Parallel corpus
encyclopedia + thesaurus– Bilingual ≠ Monolingual
• interest• wear
– ML: Co-training• Supervised
Unsupervised
• Lexicography: Hector– Joint collaboration: Oxford
University Press & DEC– flagging flogging
• Senseval
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A Road Rarely Taken:Tukey’s Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)
• Linear Regression– Standard practice:
• Plug data into off-the-shelf package
• Publish (if “significant”)– Better:
• Check for outliers• Bowed residuals
– Evidence of a positive or negative derivative
• Deviations from assumptions (normality)
– Fanout• Slocum’s Thesis (1981)
– “Proof” that CKY takes linear time
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Standard texts (e.g., Aho)… consider … worst case… This
assumption clearly fails to apply to natural language… Our
experiments have shown that average-case time performance…
is approximately linear (p. 102)
No Result
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Many Machine Learning (ML) Techniques (SVMs, Perceptrons) are Similar to (Logistic) Regression;
Rarely see EDA (Robust Statistical) Methods in MLThe E
lements of S
tatistical Learning – H
astie, Tibshirani, Friedman
(2001), p 380
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Historical Context• 1950s:
– Rigorous methodology• Information theory• Behaviorism
• Unfulfilled unrealistic expectations video– ALPAC report– Whither Speech Recognition?
• 1970s:– Let it all hang out
• Artificial Intelligence• Cognitive Psychology
• 1990s: – Revival of empiricism
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Empiricists feel lonely
Rationalists feel lonely
Kuhn Crisis
Kuhn Crisis
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…ASR is attractive to money. The attraction is perhaps similar to the attraction of schemes for turning water into gasoline, extracting gold from the sea, or going to the moon.
Most recognizers behave not like scientists, but like mad inventors or untrustworthy engineers.
…performance will continue to be very limited unless the recognizing device understands what is being said with something of the facility of a native speaker (that is, better than a foreigner fluent in the language)
Any application of the foregoing discussion to work in the general area of pattern recognition is left as an exercise for the reader.
“Whither Speech Recognition?” Pierce, JASA 1969
Borrowed Slide: Jelinek (LREC)
Also, ALPAC (chair)& Bell Labs exec
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ALPAC (1966): the (in)famous reportJohn Hutchins
• The best known event in the history of MT is …– Automatic Language Processing Advisory Committee (ALPAC)
• Its effect was to bring to an end the substantial funding of MT research in US for some twenty years.– More significantly was the clear message to the general public
and the rest of the scientific community that MT was hopeless.– For years afterwards, an interest in MT was something to keep
quiet about; it was almost shameful.– To this day, the 'failure' of MT is still repeated by many as an
indisputable fact.• The impact of ALPAC is undeniable
– While the fame or notoriety of ALPAC is familiar,– What the report actually said is now becoming less familiar and
often forgotten or misunderstood…
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ALPAC Recommendations The committee recommends expenditures in two distinct areas
• Computational linguistics as part of linguistics– Studies of parsing,
generation… including experiments in translation…
– Linguistics should be supported as science,
• and should not be judged by any immediate or foreseeable contribution to practical translation
• Improvement of translation:1. practical methods for evaluation of
translations;2. means for speeding up the human
translation process;3. evaluation of quality and cost of various
sources of translations;4. investigation of the utilization of
translations, to guard against production of translations that are never read;
5. study of delays in the over-all translation process, and means for eliminating them, both in journals and in individual items;
6. evaluation of the relative speed and cost of various sorts of machine-aided translation;
7. adaptation of existing mechanized editing and production processes in translation;
8. the over-all translation process; and9. production of adequate reference works
for the translator, including the adaptation of glossaries that now exist primarily for automatic dictionary look-up in machine translation
Theory
Practice
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Outline
• We’re making consistent progress, or• We’re running around in circles, or
– Don’t worry; be happy• We’re going off a cliff…
Best of Times
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Where have we been and where are we going? Moore’s Law: Ideal Answer
Moores: Bob ≠ Gorden ≠ Roger
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Erro
r Rat
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Date (15 years)
Moore’s Law Time Constant:• 10x improvement per decade
Borrowed SlideAudrey Le (NIST)
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Charles Wayne’s Challenge:Demonstrate Consistent Progress Over Time
• Controversial in 1980s– But not in 1990s– Though, grumbling
• Benefits1. Agreement on what to do2. Limits endless discussion3. Helps sell the field
• Manage expectations• Fund raising
• Risks (similar to benefits)1. All our eggs are in one basket
(lack of diversity)2. Not enough discussion
• Hard to change course3. Methodology Burden
ManagingExpectations
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Hockey StickBusiness Case
2003 2004 2005
t
$
LastYear
ThisYear Next
Year
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Where have we been and where are we going?Consistent Progress over Time
Extrapolation/Prediction is Applicable
Extrapolation/Prediction is Not Applicable
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ManageExpectations
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When will we see the last non-statistical paper? 2010?
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Top Ten Metrics of Success1. Value Creation (Reality)2. Stock Prices (Belief)3. Startup Companies Raise Venture Capital (Excitement)4. Prototype Applications (Plausibility)5. Grand-Students (Survive the Test of Time)6. Students Get Good Jobs7. Students Finish PhD Theses8. Citations9. Conference Registrations10. Publications (Quantity)
We are
here
Senseval wants to be here
Speech
Search
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 21
Outline
• We’re making consistent progress, or• We’re running around in circles, or
– Don’t worry; be happy• We’re going off a cliff…
Best of Times(Not!)
Been there;Done that
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 22
It has been claimed thatRecent progress made possible by EmpiricismEmpiricism
Progress (or Oscillating Fads)?• 1950s: Empiricism was at its peak
– Dominating a broad set of fields• Ranging from psychology (Behaviorism)• To electrical engineering (Information Theory)
– Psycholinguistics: Word frequency norms (correlated with reaction time, errors)• Word association norms (priming): bread and butter, doctor / nurse
– Linguistics/psycholinguistics: focus on distribution (correlate of meaning)• Firth: “You shall know a word by the company it keeps”• Collocations: Strong tea v. powerful computers
• 1970s: Rationalism was at its peak– with Chomsky’s criticism of ngrams in Syntactic Structures (1957)– and Minsky and Papert’s criticism of neural networks in Perceptrons (1969).
• 1990s: Revival of EmpiricismEmpiricism– Availability of massive amounts of data (popular arg, even before the web)
• “More data is better data”• Quantity >> Quality (balance)
– Pragmatic focus:• What can we do with all this data?• Better to do something than nothing at all
– Empirical methods (and focus on evaluation): Speech Language• 2010s: Revival of Rationalism (?)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 23
It has been claimed thatRecent progress made possible by EmpiricismEmpiricism
Progress (or Oscillating Fads)?• 1950s: EmpiricismEmpiricism was at its peak
– Dominating a broad set of fields• Ranging from psychology (Behaviorism)• To electrical engineering (Information Theory)
– Psycholinguistics: Word frequency norms (correlated with reaction time, errors)• Word association norms (priming): bread and butter, doctor / nurse
– Linguistics/psycholinguistics: focus on distribution (correlate of meaning)• Firth: “You shall know a word by the company it keeps”• Collocations: Strong tea v. powerful computers
• 1970s: Rationalism was at its peak– with Chomsky’s criticism of ngrams in Syntactic Structures (1957)– and Minsky and Papert’s criticism of neural networks in Perceptrons (1969).
• 1990s: Revival of EmpiricismEmpiricism– Availability of massive amounts of data (popular arg, even before the web)
• “More data is better data”• Quantity >> Quality (balance)
– Pragmatic focus:• What can we do with all this data?• Better to do something than nothing at all
– Empirical methods (and focus on evaluation): Speech Language• 2010s: Revival of Rationalism (?)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 24
It has been claimed thatRecent progress made possible by EmpiricismEmpiricism
Progress (or Oscillating Fads)?• 1950s: EmpiricismEmpiricism was at its peak
– Dominating a broad set of fields• Ranging from psychology (Behaviorism)• To electrical engineering (Information Theory)
– Psycholinguistics: Word frequency norms (correlated with reaction time, errors)• Word association norms (priming): bread and butter, doctor / nurse
– Linguistics/psycholinguistics: focus on distribution (correlate of meaning)• Firth: “You shall know a word by the company it keeps”• Collocations: Strong tea v. powerful computers
• 1970s: RationalismRationalism was at its peak– with Chomsky’s criticism of ngrams in Syntactic Structures (1957)– and Minsky and Papert’s criticism of neural networks in Perceptrons (1969).
• 1990s: Revival of EmpiricismEmpiricism– Availability of massive amounts of data (popular arg, even before the web)
• “More data is better data”• Quantity >> Quality (balance)
– Pragmatic focus:• What can we do with all this data?• Better to do something than nothing at all
– Empirical methods (and focus on evaluation): Speech Language• 2010s: Revival of Rationalism (?)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 25
It has been claimed thatRecent progress made possible by EmpiricismEmpiricism
Progress (or Oscillating Fads)?• 1950s: EmpiricismEmpiricism was at its peak
– Dominating a broad set of fields• Ranging from psychology (Behaviorism)• To electrical engineering (Information Theory)
– Psycholinguistics: Word frequency norms (correlated with reaction time, errors)• Word association norms (priming): bread and butter, doctor / nurse
– Linguistics/psycholinguistics: focus on distribution (correlate of meaning)• Firth: “You shall know a word by the company it keeps”• Collocations: Strong tea v. powerful computers
• 1970s: RationalismRationalism was at its peak– with Chomsky’s criticism of ngrams in Syntactic Structures (1957)– and Minsky and Papert’s criticism of neural networks in Perceptrons (1969).
• 1990s: Revival of EmpiricismEmpiricism– Availability of massive amounts of data (popular arg, even before the web)
• “More data is better data”• Quantity >> Quality (balance)
– Pragmatic focus:• What can we do with all this data?• Better to do something than nothing at all
– Empirical methods (and focus on evaluation): Speech Language• 2010s: Revival of RationalismRationalism (?)
Consistent progress?
• Periodic signals are continuous• Support extrapolation/prediction• Progress? Consistent progress?
Extrapolation/Prediction: Applicable?
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 26
Speech Language Has the pendulum
swung too far?• What happened between TMI-1992 and TMI-2002 (if anything)?• Have empirical methods become too popular?
– Has too much happened since TMI-1992?• I worry that the pendulum has swung so far that
– We are no longer training students for the possibility• that the pendulum might swing the other way
• We ought to be preparing students with a broad education including:– Statistics and Machine Learning– as well as Linguistic Theory
• History repeats itself: Mark Twain; bad idea then and still a bad idea now– 1950s: empiricism– 1970s: rationalism (empiricist methodology became too burdensome)– 1990s: empiricism– 2010s: rationalism (empiricist methodology is burdensome, again)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 27
Speech Language Has the pendulum
swung too far?• What happened between TMI-1992 and TMI-2002 (if anything)?• Have empirical methods become too popular?
– Has too much happened since TMI-1992?• I worry that the pendulum has swung so far that
– We are no longer training students for the possibility• that the pendulum might swing the other way
• We ought to be preparing students with a broad education including:– Statistics and Machine Learning– as well as Linguistic Theory
• History repeats itself: Mark Twain; bad idea then and still a bad idea now– 1950s: empiricism– 1970s: rationalism (empiricist methodology became too burdensome)– 1990s: empiricism– 2010s: rationalism (empiricist methodology is burdensome, again)
Plays well at Machine
Translation conferences
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 28
Speech Language Has the pendulum
swung too far?• What happened between TMI-1992 and TMI-2002 (if anything)?• Have empirical methods become too popular?
– Has too much happened since TMI-1992?• I worry that the pendulum has swung so far that
– We are no longer training students for the possibility• that the pendulum might swing the other way
• We ought to be preparing students with a broad education including:– Statistics and Machine Learning– as well as Linguistic Theory
• History repeats itself: Mark Twain; bad idea then and still a bad idea now– 1950s: empiricism– 1970s: rationalism (empiricist methodology became too burdensome)– 1990s: empiricism– 2010s: rationalism (empiricist methodology is burdensome, again)
Plays well at Machine
Translation conferences
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 29
Speech Language Has the pendulum
swung too far?• What happened between TMI-1992 and TMI-2002 (if anything)?• Have empirical methods become too popular?
– Has too much happened since TMI-1992?• I worry that the pendulum has swung so far that
– We are no longer training students for the possibility• that the pendulum might swing the other way
• We ought to be preparing students with a broad education including:– Statistics and Machine Learning– as well as Linguistic Theory
• History repeats itself:– 1950s: empiricismempiricism– 1970s: rationalismrationalism (empiricist methodology became too burdensome)– 1990s: empiricismempiricism– 2010s: rationalismrationalism (empiricist methodology is burdensome, again)
Plays well at Machine
Translation conferences
Grandparents and grandchildren have a natural alliance…
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 30
Rationalism Empiricism
Well-known advocates Chomsky, Minsky Shannon, Skinner, Firth,
HarrisModel Competence Model Noisy Channel Model
Contexts of Interest Phrase-Structure N-Grams
GoalsAll and Only Minimize Prediction Error
(Entropy)Explanatory Descriptive
Theoretical Applied
Linguistic Generalizations
Agreement & Wh-movement
Collocations & Word Associations
Parsing StrategiesPrinciple-Based,
CKY (Chart), ATNs, Unification
Forward-Backward (HMMs), Inside-outside (PCFGs)
ApplicationsUnderstanding RecognitionWho did what to
whomNoisy Channel
Applications
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 31
Covering all the BasesIt is hard to make predictions (especially about the future)
• When will we see the last non-statistical paper?– 2010?
• Revival of rationalism: – 2010?
The answer to any question: 6 years!
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 32
Outline
• We’re making consistent progress, or• We’re running around in circles, or
– Don’t worry; be happy• We’re going off a cliff…
Rising tide of data lifts all boats
No matter what happens, it’s goin’
be great!
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 33
Rising Tide of Data Lifts All BoatsIf you have a lot of data, then you don’t need a lot of methodology
• 1985: “There is no data like more data”– Fighting words uttered by radical fringe elements (Mercer at
Arden House)• 1993 Workshop on Very Large Corpora
– Perfect timing: Just before the web– Couldn’t help but succeed– Fate
• 1995: The Web changes everything• All you need is data (magic sauce)
– No linguistics– No artificial intelligence (representation)– No machine learning– No statistics– No error analysis
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 34
“It never pays to think until you’ve run out of data” – Eric Brill
Banko & Brill: Mitigating the Paucity-of-Data Problem (HLT 2001)
Fire everybody and spend the money on data
More data is better data!
No consistentlybest learner
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text
Moore’s Law Constant:Data Collection Rates Improvement Rates
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 35
Benefit of Data LIMSI: Lamel (2002) – Broadcast News
Supervised: transcriptsLightly supervised: closed captions
WER
hours
Borrowed Slide: Jelinek (LREC)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 36
The rising tide of data will lift all boats!TREC Question Answering & Google:
What is the highest point on Earth?
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 37
The rising tide of data will lift all boats!Acquiring Lexical Resources from Data:
Dictionaries, Ontologies, WordNets, Language Models, etc.http://labs1.google.com/sets
England Japan Cat catFrance China Dog more
Germany India Horse lsItaly Indonesia Fish rm
Ireland Malaysia Bird mvSpain Korea Rabbit cd
Scotland Taiwan Cattle cpBelgium Thailand Rat mkdirCanada Singapore Livestock manAustria Australia Mouse tail
Australia Bangladesh Human pwd
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 38
• More data better results – TREC Question Answering
• Remarkable performance: Google and not much else
– Norvig (ACL-02)– AskMSR (SIGIR-02)
– Lexical Acquisition• Google Sets
– We tried similar things» but with tiny corpora» which we called large
Rising Tide of Data Lifts All BoatsIf you have a lot of data, then you don’t need a lot of methodology
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 39
Applications• What good is word sense disambiguation (WSD)?
– Information Retrieval (IR)• Salton: Tried hard to find ways to use NLP to help IR
– but failed to find much (if anything)• Croft: WSD doesn’t help because IR is already using those methods• Sanderson (next two slides)
– Machine Translation (MT)• Original motivation for much of the work on WSD• But IR arguments may apply just as well to MT
• What good is POS tagging? Parsing? NLP? Speech?• Commercial Applications of Natural Language Processing,
CACM 1995– $100M opportunity (worthy of government/industry’s attention)
1. Search (Lexis-Nexis)2. Word Processing (Microsoft)
• Warning: premature commercialization is risky
Don’t worry;Be happy
ALPAC
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Sanderson (SIGIR-94)http://dis.shef.ac.uk/mark/cv/publications/papers/my_papers/SIGIR94.pdf
Not much?
• Could WSD help IR?• Answer: no
– Introducing ambiguity by pseudo-words doesn’t hurt (much)
Short queries matter most, but hardest for WSD
F
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Sanderson (SIGIR-94)http://dis.shef.ac.uk/mark/cv/publications/papers/my_papers/SIGIR94.pdf
• Resolving ambiguity badly is worse than not resolving at all– 75% accurate WSD
degrades performance– 90% accurate WSD:
breakeven point
Soft WSD?
Query Length (Words)
F
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Some Promising Suggestions(Generate lots of conference papers, but may not support the field)
• Two Languages are Better than One– For many classic hard NLP
problems• Word Sense
Disambiguation (WSD)• PP-attachment• Conjunction• Predicate-argument
relationships• Japanese and Chinese
Word breaking– Parallel corpora plenty of
annotated (labeled) testing and training data
– Don’t need unsupervised magic (data >> magic)
• Demonstrate that NLP is good for something– Statistical methods (IR & WSD)
focus on bags of nouns,• Ignoring verbs, adjectives,
predicates, intensifiers, etc.– Hypothesis: Ignored because
perceptrons can’t model XOR– Task: classify “comments” into
“good,” “bad” and “neutral”• Lots of terms associated with just
one category• Some associated with two
– Depending on argument• Good & Bad, but not neutral:
Mickey Mouse, Rinky Dink– Bad: Mickey Mouse(us)– Good: Mickey Mouse(them)
– Current IR/WSD methods don’t capture predicate-argument relationships
An example of Error Analysis/Representation
Senseval++
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 43
English Lexical Sample(fine-grained scoring)
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Supervision >> Magic > Baselinehttp://www.sle.sharp.co.uk/senseval2/Results/all_graphs.xls
Bragging Rights
Supervision
Magic
Baseline
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 44
Breakdown by Systems & Words• Spelling correction task
– Golding & Schabes (1996)• Some methods work better
on some words– and other methods work
better on other words• Should breakdown
Senseval results by both systems and words
• Discover opportunities for hybrids across systems
• Error analysis– POS distinctions (easy)– Local context (trigrams)– Larger contexts (IR)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 45
Goals of Shared Evaluations• Marketing & Sales
– Scores going up and up Funding goes up and up
– Rising tide lifts all boats• Shared learnings
– Compare and contrast– What works and what doesn’t?– Error analysis
• Benchmarking: – How hard are various problems? – What makes problems easier or
harder?– Rate of progress?
• Not bragging rights: – Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the
smartest of them all…
English Lexical Sample(fine-grained scoring)
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July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 46
Outline
• We’re making consistent progress, or• We’re running around in circles, or
– Don’t worry; be happy• We’re going off a cliff…
According to unnamed sources:Speech Winter Language Winter
Dot Boom Dot Bust
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 47
Early Warning Signs for Future• Senseval feels the need to demonstrate applications of their stuff (and
maybe there aren’t any)• Complacency (don’t worry; be happy)
– Too little dissent: students aren’t rebelling against their teachers– I get uncomfortable when
• There is so much agreement on what to do and so much optimism • And so few worries and so little dissent/controversy.
• Mindless Metrics– Whatever you measure, you get…– Scores go up and up and up, but are we really doing better?
• According to the scores, parsing is doing well without words,• But you can’t solve classic problems (PPs) without words!
• Burdensome Methodology Exclusiveness– Can’t play (in speech) unless you work in a big lab
• Following Speech off a Cliff– Empirical methods: Speech Language– Speech Winter Language Winter (Dot Boom Dot Bust)– What goes up, (usually) comes down…
Been great, but…
Kuhn Crisis
Cam
pbel
l (A
CL-
04):
Rul
es >
> M
L
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 48
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 49
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 50
Sample of 20 Survey Questions(Strong Emphasis on Applications)
• When will– More than 50% of new PCs have dictation on them, either at
purchase or shortly after.– Most telephone Interactive Voice Response (IVR) systems
accept speech input.– Automatic airline reservation by voice over the telephone is the
norm.– TV closed-captioning (subtitling) is automatic and pervasive.– Telephones are answered by an intelligent answering machine
that converses with the calling party to determine the nature and priority of the call.
– Public proceedings (e.g., courts, public inquiries, parliament, etc.) are transcribed automatically.
• Two surveys of ASRU attendees: 1997 & 2003
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 51
2003 Responses ≈ 1997 Responses + 6 Years(6 years of hard work No progress)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 52
Top Ten Metrics of Success(Risky to Promise Apps and Fail to Deliver)
1. Value Creation (Reality)2. Stock Prices (Belief)3. Startup Companies Raise Venture Capital (Excitement)4. Prototype Applications (Plausibility)5. Grand-Students (Survive the Test of Time)6. Students Get Jobs7. Students Finish PhD Theses8. Citations9. Conference Registrations10. Publications (Quantity)
We are
here
Senseval wants to be here
SpeechSearch
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 53
Wrong Apps?• New Priorities
– Increase demand for space >> Data entry
• New Killer Apps– Search >> Dictation
• Speech Google!– Data mining
• Old Priorities– Dictation app dates back to
days of dictation machines– Speech recognition has not
displaced typing• Speech recognition has
improved• But typing skills have
improved even more– My son will learn typing in
1st grade– Sec rarely take dictation
– Dictation machines are history• My son may never see one• Museums have slide rulers
and steam trains– But dictation machines?
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 54
Speech Data Mining & Call Centers:
An Intelligence Bonanza • Some companies are collecting
information with technology designed to monitor incoming calls for service quality.
• Last summer, Continental Airlines Inc. installed software from Witness Systems Inc. to monitor the 5,200 agents in its four reservation centers.
• But the Houston airline quickly realized that the system, which records customer phone calls and information on the responding agent's computer screen, also was an intelligence bonanza, says André Harris, reservations training and quality-assurance director.
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 55
Speech Data Mining• Label calls as success or failure based on
some subsequent outcome (sale/no sale)• Extract features from speech• Find patterns of features that can be used
to predict outcomes• Hypotheses:
– Customer: “I’m not interested” no sale– Agent: “I just want to tell you…” no sale
Inter-ocular effect (hits you between the eyes);Don’t need a statistician to know which way the wind is blowing
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 56
Ways for Conferences to Fail• Incrementalism/Burdensome Methodology (Lesson from 1950s)
– We do research for fun and profit – Arno Penzias– Fun and/or Profit >> By-the-Book Correctness
• Arrogance, Mindless Metrics, etc.• Control
– Too much control• Excessive Exclusiveness (mutual admiration society/old-boy network) • Change (serendipity) is essential: New and Different Fun and Excitement• Growth and prosperity depends on new talent (students) & new topics• Can’t afford to keep doing what we already know how to do
– Too little control• Stay on msg: It’s data, stupid!It’s data, stupid! (Our msg ≠ ACL’s)
• Set Inappropriate Expectations– Promise too little
• Senseval feels the need to become more applied– Promise too much: Promise Applications and Fail to Deliver – Success/Catastrophe
• What if we actually achieved all our goals?
Rarely a problem, especially with
thesis proposals
Rarely a problem (except for
March of Dimes)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 57
Ways for Conferences to Succeed
• I wish I knew…• Fate (can’t fail)
– Rising Tide of Data Lifts All Boats• Luck/timing: WVLC-93 was just before Web• Sales & Marketing
– Evaluation, Evaluation, Evaluation• Strategic Vision
– In retrospect, 1993 WVLC worked wonderfully– Distinguished us from mainstream– Offered excitement and hope for future
• Especially appealing to students (growth opportunity)
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 58
Great Challenge: Annotating Data
• Produce annotated data with minimal supervision
• Active learning– Identify reliable labels– Identify best candidates for annotation
• Co-training• Bootstrap (project) resources from one
application to another
Borrowed Slide: Jelinek (LREC)
Self-organizing “Magic” ≠ Error Analysis
Great Strategy Success
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 59
Grand Challengesftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/ist/docs/istag040319-draftnotesofthemeeting.pdf
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Roadmaps: Structure of a Strategy(not the union of what we are all doing)
• Goals– Example: Replace keyboard with
microphone– Exciting (memorable) sound bite– Broad grand challenge that we can work
toward but never solve• Metrics
– Examples: • WER: word error rate• Time to perform task
– Easy to measure• Milestones
– Should be no question if it has been accomplished
– Example: reduce WER on task x by y% by time t
• Accomplishments v. Activities– Accomplishments are good– Activity is not a substitute for
accomplishments– Milestones look forward whereas
accomplishments look backward• Serendipity is good!
• Small is beautiful– Quantity is not a good thing– Awareness– 1-slide version
• if successful, you get maybe 3 more slides
• Size of container– Goal: 1-3– Metrics: 3– Milestones: a dozen
• Mostly for next year: Q1-4• Plus some for years 2, 5, 10 & 20
– Accomplishments: a dozen• Broad applicability & illustrative
– Don’t cover everything– Highlight stuff that
• Applies to multiple groups• Forward-Looking / Exciting
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 61
€ € €
ResourcesApps & Techniques
Grand Challenges
Goal: Reduce barriers to entry
Goals:1. The multilingual companion2. Life log
Goal: Produce NLP apps that improve the way people communicate
with one another
Evaluation
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 62
Summary: What Workedand What Didn’t?
• Data– Stay on msg: It is the data, stupid!It is the data, stupid!
• WVLC (Very Large) >> EMNLP (Empirical Methods)• If you have a lot of data,
– Then you don’t need a lot of methodology• Rising Tide of Data Lifts All Boats
• Methodology– Empiricism means different things to different people
1. Machine Learning (Self-organizing Methods)2. Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)3. Corpus-Based Lexicography
– Lots of papers on 1• EMNLP-2004 theme (error analysis) 2• Senseval grew out of 3
Substance: Recommended if…
Magic: Recommended if…
Promise: Recommended if…
Short term ≠ Long term
Lonely
What’s the right answer?
There’ll be a quiz at the end of the decade…
Backup
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 64
Speech Language
• Been great so far,– But too much of a good thing…
• Take the good
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 65
Fire• Fuel
– Infrastructure: Shared datasets and lexical resources• Wordnet, LDC, the Web
– Organizers• Walker & Zampolli
– Funding• Darpa (Charles Wayne), EU…
• Sparks– Exciting Applications (The Web)– Grand Challenges– Leaders: Jelinek, Mercer, Miller, Kucera & Francis,
Leech, Sinclair, Tukey, Liberman…
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 66
• Hi Ken,
• Rada probably has more to add, but obviously we would like to hear something about WSD or word senses. We are currently trying to move Senseval to include application-specific evaluations (eg within MT or IR, or in specialized domains) and to more general semantic analysis of text (eg frames or subcats). Something to inspire people in this direction would be great.
• Phil.
July 25, 2004 EMNLP-2004 & Senseval-2004 67
Organizational Innovations(Radical Mainstream)
• Late Submission Deadline– Immediately after ACL notifications
• ACL was rejecting good papers for bad reasons– Short review cycles Freshness
• Invest in the Future: Encourage Innovation– Chair (Energetic, Promising, Source of new ideas)– Co-chair (Established, Knows how it has been done)
• Inclusiveness:– Thankless Chores Marketing Carrots (Maximize # of reviewers)– Balance program committee, reviewers (and hopefully submissions,
acceptances and registrations): • 1/3 stability, 1/3 promising, 1/3 outreach • Diversity: experience, gender, geography, topic
– Hold conferences in Europe, Asia & America• Huge potential market in Asia: 4 out of 5 jumbo jets
– Maintain 20-25% acceptance rate Parallel Sessions & Posters• Avoid incremental papers
– Average grades (low grade dominates) Advocate + Second
Innovation
Checks & Balances