IT in Disaster EWS

7/31/2019 IT in Disaster EWS

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ACTION PLAN REPORT

STAFF ENHANCEMENT PROGRAMRITSUMEIKAN UNIVERSITY

NOVEMBER2O10

THE POTENTIAL USE OF IT

DISASTER MANAGEMENTDISASTEREARLYWARNING SYSTEM

YUST IANTO , PURNOMO

WE S T JA VA PROV INCE

SUPERV I SOR :

KANEGAE , H IDEH IKO , PROF . DR. ENG

National DevelopmentPlanning Agency

Republic of Indonesia


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TABLE OFCONTENT

I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................ 1

1.1DISASTERS INWEST-JAVA.......................................................................................................... 1

1.2READINESS IN FACING DISASTER.............................................................................................. 21.3SCOPE OF REPORT....................................................................................................................... 2

II. THEORETIC BACKGROUND .............................................................................................. 32.1DISASTERMANAGEMENT .......................................................................................................... 32.2IT IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT.................................................................................................. 42.3EARLY WARNING SYSTEM........................................................................................................... 42.4EARLYWARNING FORFLOOD .................................................................................................. 5

III. JAPAN CASE................................................................................................................................ 73.1 NATIONAL ITPLAN ................................................................................................................... 73.2.IMPLEMENTATION OFWARNING SYSTEM .............................................................................. 83.3FLOODWARNING SYSTEM......................................................................................................... 93.4DISSEMINATION OF WARNING ................................................................................................ 11

IV. RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................................................... 133.1DISASTERMANAGEMENT ........................................................................................................ 133.2WARNING SYSTEM..................................................................................................................... 133.3REACHING LOCAL COMMUNITIES .......................................................................................... 15

V. RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................................... 175.1FRAMEWORK.............................................................................................................................. 175.2ASSESMENT OF CURRENT INDONESIA'S STATUS................................................................... 185.3BUDGETALLOCATION ............................................................................................................. 195.4PROJECT SCHEDULING ............................................................................................................. 195.5IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY................................................................................................. 20

VI. CONCLUSSION ....................................................................................................................... 21BIBLIOGRAPHY............................................................................................................................. 22


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LIST OFTABLE&FIGURES

TABLE 1.WARNING TIME FOR DISASTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEM...................................5

TABLE 2.FIRST LEVEL BREAKDOWN OF COMPREHENSIVE DISASTER EWS.......................18

TABLE 3.BRIEF ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT INDONESIAS STATUS .....................................18

TABLE 4.TENTATIVE BUDGET ALLOCATION REQUIREMENT ..............................................19

TABLE 5.PROJECTS DEGREE OF COMPLEXITY AND REQUIRED TIME-FRAME ....................19

TABLE 6.ROUGH ESTIMATE OF CREATING A PILOT SITE....................................................20

FIGURE 1.VOLCANIC,TECTONIC AND TSUNAMI DISASTER-PRONE AREAS ...........................1

FIGURE 2.POTENTIAL ROLES OF IT IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT ..........................................4

FIGURE 3.ELEMENTS OF DISASTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEM .............................................4

FIGURE 4.AN EXAMPLE OF FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM .............................................5

FIGURE 5.AN ADVANCE MODEL OF FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM................................6

FIGURE 6.JAPANS LOCAL GOVERNMENT WIDE AREA NETWORK (LGWAN)......................8FIGURE 7.WARNING SERVICES FROM JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY ...........................9

FIGURE 8.COVERAGE OF JAPANS WEATHER RADAR INSTALLED IN 26 LOCATIONS ............10

FIGURE 9.RIVER MONITORING BY RIVER BUREAU .............................................................10

FIGURE 10.FLOW OF DISASTER WARNING AND INFORMATION ...........................................11

FIGURE 11.DISSEMINATION OF DISASTER WARNING VIA NEWS MEDIA .............................12

FIGURE 12.WEST-JAVAS FLOOD-RELATED DISASTERS AREAS .........................................14

FIGURE 13.DISASTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FRAMEWORK ........................................17


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I.INTRODUCTION

1.1. DISASTERS IN WEST-JAVA

West Java is a region with vast disaster potentials, ranging from geological,

vulcanological, and climatological disaster. According to the National Disaster Agency, almost

two third of West Java is a disaster prone areas. The highest occurrences of disaster in the area

are: landslide, flood and earthquake. From 2005 to 2009, it was recorded 166 events of natural

disaster, from which 95 of them are landslides, 52 floods, and 19 earthquakes.

Figure 1. Volcanic, Tectonic and Tsunami Disaster-Prone Areas (source: West Java Spatial Planning)

The causes for increasing occurrence of disaster, specially floods and landslide, are

attributed to the destruction of forests, and the failure for implementing a sound spatial

planning. Adding to these facts, many rivers in West Java passing the lowlands in Karawang,

Indramayu, Ciamis, and Kabupaten Bandung were facing sedimentation problem, thus

shallowing in depth of water. The extreme weather due to the global warming also causes a

rising level of the sea tide.

In general, the disaster, including floods, brought severe impact to environment,

economic and social aspects. The impacts for the environment are the damage of public

infrastructure, sanitation, and the spreading of post-disaster diseases. In the economic aspect,

disaster will disturb economic activities, disrupt distribution lines. While socially, disasters

disturb public and government activities, concentrating most of the energy in handling the

disaster impacts.


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1.2 READINESS IN FACING DISASTER

The high risk of disaster potentials in West Java should instigate that the disaster-related

initiatives not only focused on disaster handling, which is concentrating on emergency actions,

but must more focusing on mitigation actions. Disaster mitigation paradigm is emphasizing in

reducing risk in disasters.

Despite all of the potential risks in West Java, popular opinions deemed that both

government and communities do not have sufficient level of readiness in facing disasters.

Anticipating disaster is not always a priority for regional governments and local communities.

One of the cause for the low preparedness is the classic coordination problem. The existence

of Disaster Handling Agency, both in national and regional levels, is not helping significantly

for coordinating disaster preparedness action.

This includes the growing need for sufficient early warning systems. For the flood

disaster, as long as an adequate Early Warning System is not provided, a flood threats cannot

be anticipated in time. In consequence, the action will be emphasized on post-flood

rehabilitation efforts which will cost more time and effort due to existence of unprepared

victims.

1.3 SCOPE OF REPORT

All of the effort related to managing disaster can be basically differentiated into two

general categories, which is (1) pre-impact and (2) post-impact. The pre-impact efforts focus

on the preparedness and readiness factors for facing the potential disaster threats, while thepost-impact efforts related to emergency and recovery actions.

In accordance the usage of Information Technology (IT) in facing disasters can also be

categorized into these two phases. In the first category, IT is used for assessing potential

disaster threat, including for monitoring and disseminating disaster potentials. In the second

category, IT is used as a tool for coordinating the actions post-impact, including the

emergency activity and recovery actions.

One of the major usages of IT during the pre-impact falls in the category of Early

Warning System (EWS). This report focused on this aspect, with the tasks of monitoringdisaster threats and disseminating the information and warning regarding the threats.

Due to the wide types of disaster potential in West Java, this report will emphasize on

water related disaster, specifically for flood cases. This report is prepared as a specific entry

point for author to raise the awareness for the potential of IT usage in Disaster Management,

specifically in the regions of West Java Province.


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II.THEORETIC BACKGROUND

2.1. DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Disaster is defined as a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing

widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected

community or society to cope using its own resources. A disaster arises from the combination of three

factors (1) hazard event, (2) the conditions ofvulnerability and (3) the insufficiency of

capacity or measures to handle the hazard.

Several sub-factors can increase the vulnerability factor. Vulnerability to hazards is

generally heightened by the poverty. Disaster impact also increased with the combination of

increasing populations, greater concentrations of habitant and assets in the areas.

The occurrence of disaster not always can be avoided, but its impact can be lessened

through disaster management efforts. These efforts are basically trying to reduce the

vulnerability and to increase the capacity to cope the hazard event. Thus, the effort is a

proactive action of facing disaster by devising strategies to implement which addressing the

vulnerability and capacity factors, while in the same time continuously measuring the hazard

potentials.

The preparedness is the basic concept underlying in the disaster management. This

concept is related to mitigation action as an effort to minimize the impact of a disaster. In

mitigation actions, efforts are emphasized to clearly identify disaster-prone areas, to study the

patterns which caused the vulnerabilities and to devise mitigate actions to reduce the risk. In

recent approaches, the actions devised should incorporate social, economic and political

aspect of the communities. The approach considers the communities as the subject of disaster

management with an objective to increase their local capacity in facing disasters.

Mitigation action consists of (1) structural and (2) non-structural actions. Structural

mitigation takes physical forms such as infrastructure development or disaster resistance

building. While non-structural actions related to policy, awareness building, knowledge

acquisition, and concentrating public commitment, which include incorporating participative

mechanisms.


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A concrete example of mitigation effort is the implementation of disaster early warning

system. In the case of flood early warning system, a monitoring is performed of the water

flow system in the region, including water and rain level, which is potential to cause the flood.

2.2 IT IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT

As mentioned in the first part, IT for disaster management resides in at least the two

phase: (1) pre-impact and (2) post-impact. In pre-impact activities, IT systems and

infrastructure can detect an incoming disaster potential and distribute an early-warning sign to

the related institutions and the public. While in post-impact activities, an IT system allows a

concentrated effort in relieving the victims, during the allocation and the distribution the aids.

Warning

Action

Shelter

Supply

ReliefWorker

ThreatSources

Remote

Real-TimeSurveillance

DisasterModelling

ThreatDisemination

HazardMap

EmergencySystem

1

2

3

4

5

Pre-Impact Post-Impact

Figure 2.Potential Roles of IT in Disaster Management

Information has important value in emergencies situation, but in times of disaster crisis,

objective, accurate, and freely available information is often in short supply. Governments,

regulators, and international agencies therefore have a key role in ensuring that people have as

much reliable information as early as possible.

2.3 EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Early warning is defined as the provision of timely and effective information, through identified

institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and

prepare for effective response.

Figure 3.Elements of Disaster Early Warning System


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To be effective and comprehensive, an early warning system (EWS) needs to be

comprised four interacting elements: (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service,

(3) dissemination and communication and (4) response capability.

The amount of time-to-act given from early-warning can be varied according to the type

of disaster. The following table illustrates the given warning-time of several type of disastersorted from the shortest to the longest.

Type of Disaster Warning Time Notes

Earthquake Seconds (5 sec) Detecting the arrival of p-wave

Tsunami Minutes (5 min) Offshore buoy monitor, earthquake detection

Natural flood Hours to days Water level, rain gauge and rain prediction

Typhoon Hours to days Wind gauge and weather prediction

Volcanic eruption Days Volcano activity monitoring

Table 1.Warning Time for Disaster Early Warning System

An adequate warning time will give a sufficient time to related parties to make all of thepreparation and to act, while disaster with short warning time, oblige that the warning should

reach immediately to the potential victims and the reduced impact effect very much depended

on all that has been prepared during the pre-disaster phase.

Normally all the warning can and should be issued to general public, government and

the disaster related agencies. But for earthquake and tsunamis case, the utmost urgency is to

issue the warning directly to the residents of potentially affected regions because nothing

much can be done aside from directing the resident to the safe-shelters.

2.4 EARLY WARNING FOR FLOOD

Theoretically, flood occurs when the amount of water entering a water flow system

(rivers) exceed its capacity. In that event, the system reaches its peak discharges. Consecutive

days of rain also risk of a flood because the initial rains will saturate the ability of soil to

absorb more water, thus the water will flow in the surface area in a search for the nearest

alternative water flow system.

Flood EWS is a system which monitors situational factors which can cause an incoming

flood. In its most basic form, it comprised of several components: (1) automatic rain-gauge

(2) automatic water level recorder (AWLR) in the upstream, (3) AWLR in downstream, (4)

which all connected to monitoring facilities which produce the predicted time to reach the

peak discharge (floods) in specific area. A more advance flood EWS is also equipped with

automatic rain-gauge and rain-radar which installed covering the river area to predict an

incoming rain up to three days in advance, thus giving a longer warning-time.


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Figure 4.An Example of Flood Early Warning System

To have a high dependability, all data monitored by rain gauges and AWLRs must be

transmitted in a reliable and redundant data communication network, such as telephone line

or wireless communication. In a more ideal situation, data can be transmitted through satellite

to reduce the risk of power failure in monitoring area. Other alternative is to use specific radio

system to transmit the data.

Figure 5.An Advance Model of Flood Early Warning System

A flood EWS can achieve a better result if equipped with equation model which

quantified the mechanism of transfer between rain and the amount of surface water flow to

predict the time of peak discharge in certain areas. This equation correlates (1) rain in

upstream area, (2) water level in upstream river, and (3) mathematically calculated water levelin the downstream area. Basically this model incorporate the relation between various

variables such as: (1) water input, (2) land absorbing capacity from soil type and land usage, (3)

fractal characteristic of rivers hydrology system such as inter-river flow, and slope (4) with

resulting peak discharge and time to peak-discharge to produce a reliable long warning time

flood EWS.


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III.JAPANCASE

Due partly to its geographic location, Japan has many experiences of natural disasterthroughout history. Through these experiences, Japan developed its expertise, policies and

technologies in the area of disaster risk reduction. Lessons learned from the Great Hanshin-

Awaji Earthquake (Kobe Earthquake) in 1995 prompting an enhanced awareness to the

urgency of disaster risk reduction study and policy.

The Comprehensive National Development Act (1998) stated that making Japan a safe

and comfortable place to live as one of objectives of national development. It defines its aim as

improving the countrys safety with regard to large-scale natural disasters with priorities in

Disaster mitigation counter risk reduction measures based on the principle of minimizing thedamage caused by disasters as the main task.

Specific objectives were established, several of them are related to the usage of IT such

as establishing an earthquake watch network and other disaster watch systems; establishing

systems enabling an appropriate response in the event of a disaster, such as strengthening

information-relaying systems, evacuation, aid and rescue systems, volunteer-dispatch systems,

and backup systems for administrative functions and company activities.

3.1. NATIONAL IT PLAN

Since 2000, Japan established the "IT Strategy Headquarters" and the "IT Strategy

Council" in an objective to become a nation with IT competitiveness. Since then, a series of

National IT Plan documents were issued: (1) Basic IT Strategy - 2000, (2) e-Japan Strategy -

2001, (3) e-Japan Priority Policy Program - 2001, (4) e-Japan Strategy II - 2003, (5) e-Japan

Strategy II Acceleration Package - 2004, and (6) IT Policy Package 2005.

The use of IT for disaster management mentioned in the documents. Basic IT Strategy

(2000) mentions under the objective of Realization of electronic government, planning a

government action that stated Risk management ability of the government in times of disaster should bestrengthened.

In further detail, the IT Policy Package (2005) mentioned several policies regarding the

use of IT in disaster management. Most of them were fall under the task of Ministry of

Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC). Several of the tasks are:


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Steps will be taken to promote the establishment of an effective Disaster PreventionAdministrative Radio Systems for the sending out of warnings. to residents in disaster-stricken

areas; Digital Disaster Prevention Radio System, which is necessary in disaster-stricken areas

In order for the government to quickly build a support system in areas that are struck by large-scale disasters, a satellite communications system that makes effective use of IT, which

enables direct and more efficient exchange of information relating to a disaster with local

contacts.

With respect to the service coverage area for cellular phones, which play a critical role indisasters, support will be provided for the establishment of a mobile communications tower

facility in those areas in principle that have been designated by the government as subject to

earthquake disaster prevention management.

Efforts will be made towards establishing a technology that will form a nationwide publicbroadband network through a demonstration experiment concerning connections between

local public networks and prefectural information highways. A standard disaster-prevention

application, which features motion images that can effectively utilize the said nationwide

network, will be introduced.

Advanced utilization of terrestrial digital broadcasting in public services such as disaster-prevention will be promoted, and steps will be taken towards the practical application of

broadcasting for mobile terminals.

3.2 IMPLEMENTATION OF WARNING SYSTEM

Since 2001, Japan has operated Kasumigaseki WAN, a Wide Area Network system

which digitally connect all of the ministries in the central government. And by 2004, a Local

Government WAN (LGWAN) project integrated Kasumigaseki WAN with network that

connect all the ministries to about 3,300 local government (prefectures and municipalities) foruse in electronic communications (E-mail service, electronic document exchange service,

bulletin board service, etc.). These digital network infrastructures are also to be used as

information and communication channel in the event of disasters.

Figure 6.Japans Local Government Wide Area Network (LGWAN)


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This LGWAN networks are mainly provided by the ministry of Internal Affairs and

Communications. But the task of monitoring disaster threat, that is operating a Disaster Early

Warning system falls as a responsibility of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and

Tourism (MLIT), especially in two of its agencies: theJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA),

and the River Bureau.By the service of JMA, all Japans national territory is covered by early warning systems

for storms, blizzards, torrential rains, heavy snow, and landslides of various kinds, tsunamis,

tidal waves, high surf, inundation and floods. Areas identified to have high risk of earthquake

or volcanic eruptions are also covered by specific countermeasures.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), use 24-hour systems to monitor various

natural phenomena and weather conditions. The JMA also issues forecasts, warnings, and

advisories regarding earthquake-generated tsunamis and severe weather events such as rain.

Figure 7.Warning Services from Japan Meteorological Agency

3.3 FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM

For providing flood early warning, the JMA work in tandem with the River Bureau. The

JMA handles meteorological observations (rainfall, and rain prediction) while the River

Bureau and prefectural government handles the water situation (river water levels and flow

volumes).

The JMA provide meteorological data by conducting automatic observations at weather

observation stations nationwide throughout Japan. The JMA also provide rain forecasting by

installing weather radar for identifying rain and wind movements to asses the rainfall

throughout Japan. It also conducts observations at rainfall observation stations.


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Figure 8.Coverage of Japans Weather Radar installed in 26 locations

The River Bureau of MLIT and prefectural governments are responsible to observe the

water level in the rivers for monitoring flood threats. There are about 2,000 water level

observation stations all over Japan using visual observation methods, mechanical observation

equipment, and a wireless telemetry system that transmits automatically observed data from

remote locations. As of 2007, the River Bureau maintains about 14,000 km of fiber optic for

the purpose of river management, including flood monitoring.

Figure 9.River Monitoring by River Bureau

Instant radar readings on rainfall volume, telemeter readings on water-levels and rainfall

volume, flood warnings, inundation warnings and other river information are accessible from

the Internet (e.g. JMAs website) and mobile phone. The need for this information is attested

by the 1.5 millions access hits per day when a typhoon was approaching Japan in August

2003.


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Flood warnings are issued jointly by local government and the JMA. A special warning

water level serves as the trigger for the issuance of evacuation instructions, notify relevant

organizations when the water reaches that level, and disseminate information to local

residents.

To provide detailed early warning information in addition to the advance warningsissued by the JMA cooperation is developed between the JMA and local governments for the

handling of floods and landslide related disasters.

2.4 DISSEMINATION OF WARNING

The information issued by the JMA is transmitted to prefectures via local meteorological

agency, the Fire and Disaster Management Wireless Networks, or regional satellite

communications networks, and then retransmitted to municipalities via prefectural systems.

Municipalities have established their own disaster management wireless networks that enableauthorities to directly transmit warnings and evacuation orders to residents.

Figure 10.Flow of Disaster Warning and Information

Municipal mayors are responsible for issuing evacuation orders and instructions to

citizen based on this warning information. To enable mayors to decide on and communicate

prompt and accurate evacuation orders, the national government has established and provided

guidelines of preparedness manuals for the municipalities to use.

The most frequently used tools for disseminating information to the residents, are

wireless communications systems used with outdoor loudspeakers and indoor private radio

receivers. As of 2005, 70% of municipalities have developed this kind of system. Tsunami and


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severe weather warnings are also communicated by the JMA to media organizations, and are

promptly distributed to the general public via TV and radio broadcasts.

Figure 11.Dissemination of Disaster Warning via News Media

Media broadcasts are an effective means of distributing early warning information to

residents. The national government and local government organizations have agreements with

the Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) and other broadcasting companies regarding

disaster information broadcasts protocol and also work with the media to establish

cooperative systems for disaster management.

Information regarding disasters and evacuation is provided by interrupting regular

programs and broadcasting textual information. Residents can access information regarding

earthquakes, tsunamis, and severe weather events, as well as the well-being of affected

residents and the status of lifelines via TV and radio broadcasts. Some local government

organizations also transmit disaster information via local CATV and community broadcasting

services.

To ensure that residents know how react in the face of (flood) warning, municipalities

also distributed flood hazard maps and leaflet, by displaying and distributing them at

government offices, distributing them to individual homes, displaying them at civic halls and

hospitals, publishing them in newsletters, on websites, and in phone directories, conducting

evacuation drills using the hazard maps, using them as teaching materials in elementary and

junior high schools, and holding community meetings about them.


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IV.RECOMMENDATIONS

4.1. DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Regarding the preparedness of facing disaster, national and regional government in

Indonesia still has much to learn and to do. Disaster has never been high priority for the

government; this is shown by percentage of budget and effort allocated by the government

regarding disaster preparedness. The existence of relatively new National (and Regionals)

Disaster Agencies still not much help to kick-start a comprehensive, and implementable

Disaster Management initiatives.

The disaster agencies should be empowered to start championing local-based disaster

management initiatives in each region which emphasis on the pre-impact preparedness, not

only on post-impact emergency action. The first thing they should do is to assess all the

potentiality of disasters threat in detail in their region. One of the products of these

assessments is the hazard maps. Hazard maps as a tool for effective risk communication

among policymakers and communities.

There several attempts already in place to assess disaster threats, including in the

national level disaster agencies. But the product is still too general to be used as a

communication tools. Thus, each local disaster agencies, including in the West Java province

should start compiling these assessment by performing a study with data compiled from

various source, because several regional agencies already started mapping the disaster threats

related to their specific responsibilities.

4.2 WARNING SYSTEM

Once the potential disasters identified and located, the government can decide on

measure of actions based on the priority (threat possibilities and cost/casualties projection). In

the regard of preparedness, an (early) warning system can be deployed for certain disaster

threats.In the case of West Java, one of the threat might be identified is the potentiality of flood

disaster in several region. According to the National Meteorological Agency, the region in

West Java most prone to flood located mostly in middle and northern part of West Java,

which is: Sukabumi, Cianjur, Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis, Bogor, Kabupaten Bandung, and

Kuningan. Fifteen municipalities are known to have routine floods and landslides, which are:


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Karawang, Indramayu, Ciamis, Kabuten Bandung, Kabupaten Cianjur, Kabupaten Garut,

Kabupaten Tasikmalaya, Kabupaten Bandung, Kabupaten Bandung Barat, Kabupaten Ciamis,

Kabupaten Sumedang, Kabupaten Sukabumi, Bogor, and Kabupaten Purwakarta.

Figure 12.West-Javas Flood-Related Disasters Areas

(source:2010s mapping of National Meteorology and Geophysic Agency)

This is mostly due to the activity of river water-flow system in the three main rivers:

Ciliwung, Cisadane and Citarum. To deploy a flood early warning system then monitoring

measures can be installed on those river using the concept introduced in part 2 of this report

(Figure 5). Inter-agencies coordination will be needed as several other central or regional

agencies has installed a monitoring station, either water level or rain level metering in the area.

Considering a complete water morphology model and advance weather forecasting is

still not feasible, both in cost and technological capabilities, instruments possible to be

implemented in the short run is the AWLR, data communication network and dissemination

media. For data communication network connecting AWLR to the central monitoring unit, it

is recommended to use wireless communication media, as in GSM or CDMA network where

available, or satellite communication for remote areas.

In utilizing IT for disseminating the threats, the information and warnings can posted to

the Internet website, including popular highly accessed news website. To reach wider reader,

the information can also be transmitted to the cellular phone, as a popular communication

tools among citizens, usingSMS cell broadcasting method.


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SMS cell broadcasting is a one-to-many (or one-to-area) mode of communication. It

allows authorities to broadcast messages to anyone in a given geographical area without

needing any pre-registered numbers or infringing on privacy. The messages will flash

automatically on the screen of mobile phone sets, without the need of pushing a button to go

into message boxes. Messages can also be tailored for different geographical areas.Furthermore, people can easily identify if the SMS alerts come from trusted sources. Of

course this approach will necessitate a prepared cooperation with local cellular phone

operators.

4.3 REACHING LOCAL COMMUNITIES

Considering that several types of disaster have a very short warning time, it is important

that a direct-mass method of conveying message should be available. While considered to be

the most efficient method of disseminations of disaster warning and information, the use ofIT have its limitation that not all of the (potentially) affected residents can access the required

media devices (PC or Cellphone). Thus, others alternatives should also be incorporated to

convey the warning as widely as possible in the affected regions.

The first alternative media is the TV and radio sets. Many households in local

communities most probably have one or both of the set. And they tend to keep them turned

on most of the day. This media then must be employed to issue a warning to the

communities. This approach will also need a prepared cooperation with the local TV and

radio stations.

The second alternative media is the voice-capable Public Announcement (PA) system.

This is what mostly lacking of in Indonesian regions. The government does not have a means

to convey an emergency message to the general populace instantly. While these systems need

to be implemented in the future, in reality several other alternatives exist, such as the PA

system in schools, shopping malls, and mosques. The government can employed these

alternatives PA systems by devising a message transfer mechanism to these systems, either

automatically or manually.

In the case of unavailability of voice-capable PA systems, a siren or public noise

generator (drums in traditional mosques, church bells, or wooden gongs) can also be

employed to raise awareness of an incoming danger to the community. While this method

might be of limited use, due to non-clarity of the message produced, but given an early

consensus the community can guess the meaning of the sounds. At least the noise will raise a

curiosity of the citizen to look for further information from other sources (radio or TV).


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The characteristic of people-centred warning system requires many element in the

approaches and comprised of various activities, such as: identifying target populations,

especially the vulnerable and disadvantaged and interacting with them to determine needs and

capacities; conducting town meetings and involving communities in exploring and mapping

their risks and planning their responses; encourage the development by communities ofmonitoring and warning systems for local risks; generating public information for the target

groups and making innovative use of the media and education systems; developing formal

mechanisms for public representatives to monitor and oversee warning system design;

creating publications, annual events and other anchors of public memory and learning; and

providing exercises and simulations to enable people to experience and practice warning

interpretation and responses.

It is important to recognize that these activities require the coordinated participation of

many different types of organizations. National platforms for disaster reduction, stakeholderdiscussion or inter-agency committees should be established to organize the required

coordination. The core technical agency, which is the governmental disaster agency, should

establish such mechanisms and supporting them with technical information.


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V.ACTION PLAN

To have a degree of disaster preparedness such already existed in Japan, government inIndonesia will require the creation of a comprehensive national disaster plan. Obviously the

scope of this report is too limited to propose the whole pictures, but the points addressed in

this report might be used as a starting point to start working on a planning of Disaster Early

Warning system.

5.1. FRAMEWORK

This report use a schematic diagram displayed on Wajus Embankment Museum (in

Ogaki City) as the inspiration of a framework to identify the components of a comprehensiveDisaster Early Warning System.

Figure 13.Disaster Early Warning System Framework

(Source: Waju Embankment Museum Ogaki City, November 2010)

The components identified from the diagram are:

A. Threats Monitoring SystemB. Government Information-Flow SystemC. Warning Dissemination SystemD.Action Preparedness Program

An attempt to breakdown of each component can be found in the following table. It

should be noted that the table might not be an exhaustive list and further work required to

complete the table.


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ID COMPONENT NOTE

A Threat monitoring systemA1 Threat surveillance system Break-down for each type of threatA2 Data transmission network Using reliable media (wireless or satellite)

A3 Central monitoring system Empowering a central agency

B Government coordination systemB1 Data communication network Range: National-Provincial-Municipal

B2 Disaster information system Centralized with certain decentralization

C Dissemination systemC1 Utilizing Mass-media (TV and Radio) Partnership with broadcaster

C2 Connecting to available Public Address system Cooperation with building owner, school, mosque

C3 Building Government Public Address system Located in public places with feasibility study

C4 Utilizing Disaster Noise Warning (Siren, Bell, etc) Community participation (PA system unfeasible)

D Action Preparedness ProgramD1 Preparedness Standard Operation Procedure From micro to macro level

D2 Shelters and Evacuation Planning In community level

D3 Logistic System Operated by government with private participation

D4 Community Education Activity Partnership with NGOs

Table 2.First Level Breakdown of Comprehensive Dsaster Early Warning System (Source: Author)

5.2. ASSESMENT OF CURRENT INDONESIAS STATUS

Before starting planning on the action, an assessment of the current status is required.

The following is a brief assessment by the author based on casual observation.

ID COMPONENT SOURCE

A Threat monitoring systemA1 Threat surveillance system Several (manual) systems available provided by BMKG (weather,

volcanic, tectonic and river) but rather limited and not integrated.

A2 Data transmission network Mostly unavailable

A3 Central monitoring system Unavailable

B Gov. coordination systemB1 Data communication network Mostly unavailable (traditional use of radiogram and phone line)

B2 Disaster information system Unavailable

C Dissemination systemC1 Utilizing Mass-media (TV, Radio) Available but not yet accessed

C2 Connecting to existing PA system Available but not yet accessed (mosques are very potential)

C3 Building Government PA system Unavailable

C4 Utilizing Noise Warning Available but still in limited use

D Preparedness ProgramD1 Standard Operation Procedure Unavailable or not yet tested or fully disseminated

D2 Shelters and Evacuation Planning Unavailable

D3 Logistic System Several attempts exist (government and army)

D4 Community Education Activity Several limited attempts implemented

Table 3.Brief Assessment of Current Indonesias Status (Source: Author)


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5.3. BUDGET ALLOCATION

To give an overview of budget required, the following table is an attempt to identify a

rough estimation of the budget for each subcomponents and its related agency-in-charge.

ID COMPONENTINITIAL

COST (RP)OPERATIONAL

COST (RP PER YEAR)AGENCY

A Threat monitoring systemA1 Threat surveillance system 20 billion 2 billion Regional gov, BMKG branch

A2 Data transmission network 10 billion 1 billion Depkominfo, regional Diskominfo

A3 Central monitoring system 1 billion - BMKG

B Gov. coordination systemB1 Data communication network 100 billion 10 billion Depkominfo, regional DiskominfoB2 Disaster information system 1 billion - Depkominfo, regional Diskominfo

C Dissemination systemC1 Utilizing Mass-media (TV, Radio) 200 million - Depkominfo, regional Diskominfo

C2 Connecting to existing PA system 400 million 5 billion Depkominfo, regional Diskominfo

C3 Building Government PA system 200 billion 5 billion Depkominfo, regional Diskominfo

C4 Utilizing Noise Warning 100 billion Depkominfo, regional Diskominfo

D Preparedness ProgramD1 Standard Operationg Procedure 500 million BNPB, regional BNPBD2 Shelters and Evacuation Planning 400 million 1 billion BNPB, regional BNPB

D3 Logistic System 200 million 2 billion Govs, Army, PrivateD4 Community Education Activity 200 million 400 million All parties (including NGOs)

Table 4.Tentative Budget Allocation Requirement

5.4. PROJECT SCHEDULING

Within a vision of the availability of a comprehensive national disaster warning system

within 4 years, and assuming that all of the initiative can be launched since 2011 a time-frame

table is composed as follow.ID COMPONENT COMPLEXITY TIME-FRAME

A Threat monitoring systemA1 Threat surveillance system High 2 years (2011 - 2012)

A2 Data transmission network High 2 years (2011 - 2012)A3 Central monitoring system Moderate 1 years

B Gov. coordination systemB1 Data communication network Very High 4 years (2011 - 2014)

B2 Disaster information system High 1 years (2011)

C Dissemination systemC1 Utilizing Mass-media (TV, Radio) Low 1 years (2011)

C2 Connecting to existing PA system Moderate 2 years (2011 2012)

C3 Building Government PA system High 3 years (2011 2013)

C4 Utilizing Noise Warning Moderate 2 years (2011 2012)D Preparedness ProgramD1 Standard Operationg Procedure Moderate 2 years (2011 2012)D2 Shelters and Evacuation Planning Low 2 years (2011 2012)

D3 Logistic System Moderate 1 years (2011)

D4 Community Education Activity Low 1 years (2011)

Table 5.Projects Degree of Complexity and Required Time-frame


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5.3. IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY

Understandably to have such massive national initiative can be challenging to be

proposed and championed in one try. An alternative more feasible approach is by setting up

several pilot projects in microscopic level, in cities or sub-municipal area. The key point in this

approach is to effectively pick a potential pilot site. The pilot site must have following criteria:

Have a relatively high (and certain) risk of specific disaster threat Receptive and cooperative community and local governmentIn an ideal situation, a pilot site can be initialized within 2 years period for facing a

specific type of disaster, and evaluated after 3 years of installation. In a case of successful

pilot, the case can be propagated to other sites in accordance with the comprehensive national

disaster management planning.

ID COMPONENTINITIAL

COST (RP)

OPERATIONAL

COST (RP PER YEAR)TIME FRAME

A Threat monitoring systemA1 Threat surveillance system 400 million 100 million 1 year (2012)

A2 Data transmission network 500 million 200 million 1 year (2012)

A3 Regional monitoring system 250 million - 2 year

B Gov. coordination systemB1 Data communication network 1 billion 500 million 2 year (2012-2013)

B2 Disaster information system 300 million -

C Dissemination systemC1 Utilizing Mass-media (TV, Radio) 50 million - 1 year (2012)

C2 Connecting to existing PA system 100 million 50 million 1 year (2012)

C3 Building Government PA system 500 million 100 million 2 year (2012-2013)

C4 Utilizing Noise Warning 200 million - 1 year (2012)

D Preparedness ProgramD1 Standard Operation Procedure 300 million - 1 year (2012)

D2 Shelters and Evacuation Planning 400 million 50 billion 2 year (2012-2013)

D3 Logistic System 200 million 50 million 1 year (2012)

D4 Community Education Activity 200 million 100 million 1 year (2012)

Table 6.Rough Estimate of Creating a Pilot Site


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VI.CONCLUSION

To have a sufficient preparedness for an incoming disaster, it is generally accepted

important fact that its not only the implementation of state-of-the-art systems that is mater,

but the participation of stakeholders. While the most well-known part of the EWS is the

(physical) monitoring and warning system, experiences show that it is insufficient by itself to

achieve the desired reduction in losses and impacts. The human factor is more significant due

to the facts that failures typically occur in the communication and preparedness elements.

To be sustainable, a strong political commitment is required, which in turn depended on

public awareness of the benefits of such system. Thus its all started from the public

awareness. Public awareness and support is often high just after a major disaster. Such periods

can be taken advantage off to impose the importance of a sustainable early warning system.

It can also be achieved by public awareness campaign. Considering an effective method

of raising awareness come from disaster experience, it can be simulated by establishing a

disaster memorial site or day (such as established in many cities in Japan) which has double

functions as a disaster management learning center.

With such disaster experience, public can learn lesson from it, build an awareness of it in

a community level which will hopefully lead to the urge for participating in the cause of

disaster prevention. Its important to emphasize that the community live itself that is at stakes,

so the community must actively take action to the remedy of the situation, while the

government must encourage and facilitating the initiatives by providing facilities and

infrastructure.

The nature of disaster response could be recognized as a multi-agency system. In Japan

disaster prevention system is focused on the municipal level. Meaning the municipality has the

prime role for preparedness or response as it is the closest level to the field and can respond

promptly, such as the case of a municipal fire.

In general, to be effective, an early warning system need to: (1) enable the issuance of

prompt and accurate early warning information based on accurate, real-time measurements of

various sources and data analysis, (2) incorporate systems for sharing warning information

among relevant organizations and disseminating it to residents, and also (3) incorporate

disaster reduction awareness and education activities to ensure that actions are taken based on

the warning information issued.


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BIBLIOGRAPHY

AMDAHL, Gary. Disaster Response: GIS for Public Safety. Redlands: ESRI, 2001. BASHER, Reid. Global Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazards: Systematic and

People-Centred. Philosophical Transaction Royal Socciety, 2006, Vol. 364.

DRABEK, Thomas E. Human System Responses to Disaster: An Inventory of SociologicalFindings. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1986.

EL MAHDY, Galal. Disaster Management in Telecommunications, Broadcasting and ComputerSystems, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001.

FREEMAN, Paul K. Infrastructure, Natural Disasters, and Poverty.Managing DisasterRisk in Emerging Economies. Washington D.C: The World Bank, 2000. p 55-61.

FUKAMI, Maki. HISAMOTO, Norio.A General View of Japanese Disaster PreventionSystem: A Working Paper, Graduate School of Economics - Kyoto University, 2010.

SALTER, John A. Towards Quality Information for Disaster Management, InnovativeUrban Community Development and Disaster Management (UNCRD Proceedings Series No. 13).

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KANEKO, Ikuyou. The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and NetworkOrganization Theory, Innovative Urban Community Development and Disaster Management

(UNCRD Proceedings Series No. 13). UNCRD, 1996, p 233-241.

MUROSAKI, Masuteru. Reassessing Urban Disaster Control Measures in CrisisManagement, Innovative Urban Community Development and Disaster Management (UNCRDProceedings Series No. 13). UNCRD, 1996, p 263-269.

--. National Report of Japan on Disaster Reduction for the World Conference onDisaster Reduction.Kobe-Hyogo: Government of Japan, 2005.

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