IT and Transportation Systems

A/Prof Jeffrey Funk

Division of Engineering and Technology

Management

National University of Singapore

For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

The Need for Better Transport

Vehicle congestion costs the European Union more than one percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—or over 100 billion Euros per year

U.S. drivers wasted 4.2 billion hours, 2.8 billion gallons of fuel and $87.2 billion due to vehicle congestion in 2007

Twenty percent of CO2 emissions are the by product of transportation

Problems also exist for other modes of transport

Almost one-quarter of U.S. scheduled flights in 2008 were delayed

Less than half of container vessels arrive in port on schedule and empty containers are common

Sources: http://www-07.ibm.com/innovation/my/exhibit/documents/pdf/2_The_Case_For_Smarter_Transportation.pdf

Science, 6 June 2014, Vol 344, Issue 6188

Can Information Technology Help?

Some technologies experience much more rapid improvements than do other technologies

Information related technologies have much more rapid rates of improvement than do other technologies (wind is 2%, batteries are 5% per year)

Can we assemble new types of transportation systems that provide users with better value?

We must consider changes that will likely occur over the life of a transport system

0

5

10

15

20

25

-10 0 10 20 30 40

Number of Technologies by Annual Rates of Improvement

Annual Rates of ImprovementSource: Nagy B, Farmer D, Bui Q, Trancik J 2013. Statistical Basis for Predicting

Technological Progress. PLoS ONE 8(2): e52669. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052669NREL, 2013

Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates (> 10%) of

Improvements (Information Transformation)

Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate Per Year

Integrated Circuits Number of transistors per chip 1971-2011 38%

MEMS (Micro-elec

mech systems)

Number of Electrodes per Eye 2002-2013 46%

Drops per second for printer 1985-2009 61%

Organic Transistors Mobility 1994-2007 101%

Power ICs Current Density 1993-2012 16%

Carbon Nanotube

Transistors

1/Purity (% metallic) 1999-2011 32%

Density (per micrometer) 2006-2011 357%

Superconducting

Josephson Junctions

1/Clock period 1990-2010 20%

1/Bit energy 1990-2010 10%

Qubit Lifetimes 1999-2012 142%

Bits per Qubit lifetime 2005-2013 137%

Photonics Number of Optical Channels 1983-2011 39%

Computers Instructions per unit time 1979-2009 36%

Instructions per time and dollar 1979-2009 52%

Quantum Computers Number of Qubits 2002-2012 107%

Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates (>10%) of

Improvements (Information Storage)

Technology Dimensions of

measure

Time Period Rate per Year

Magnetic Storage Recording density

(disks)

1991-2011 56%

Recording density

(tape)

1993-2011 32%

Cost per bit 1956-2007 33%

Flash Memory Storage Capacity 2001-2013 47%

Resistive RAM 2006-2013 272%

Ferro-electric RAM 2001-2009 37%

Phase Change RAM 2004-2012 63%

Magneto RAM 2002-2011 58%

Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements

Information Transmission, Materials and Biological Transformation

Technology

Domain

Sub-Technology Dimensions of

measure

Time

Period

Rate Per

Year

Information

Transmission

Last Mile Wireline Bits per second 1982-2010 48.7%

Wireless, 100 m Bits per second 1996-2013 79.1%

Wireless, 10 m 1995-2010 58.4%

Wireless, 1 meter

(USB)

1996-2008 77.8%

Materials

Transformation

Carbon Nanotubes 1/Minimum

Theoretical Energy for

Production

1999-2008 86.3%

Biological

Transformation

DNA Sequencing per unit

cost

2001-2013 146%

Synthesizing per cost 2002-2010 84.3%

Cellulosic Ethanol Output per cost 2001-2012 13.9%

Even Most Rapidly Improving Technologies that Technically

“Transform Energy” are Information-Related Technologies

Technology

Domain

Sub-Technology Dimensions of

measure

Time

Period

Rate Per

Year

Energy Trans-

formation

Light Emitting

Diodes (LEDs)

Luminosity per Watt 1965-2008 31%

Lumens per Dollar 2000-2010 40.5%

Organic LEDs Luminosity per Watt 1987-2005 29%

GaAs Lasers Power/length-bar 1987-2007 30%

LCDs Square meters per dollar 2001-2011 11.0%

Quantum Dot

Displays

External Efficiency 1994-2009 79.0%

Solar Cells Peak Watt Per Dollar 2004-2013 21.0%

Photo-sensors

(Camera chips)

Pixels per dollar 1983-2013 48.7%

Light sensitivity 1986-2008 18%

Energy

Transmission

Super-conductors Current-length per dollar 2004-2010 115%

Sources listed in: Funk J and Magee C, Exponential Change: What drives it? What does it tell us about the future? Amazon.com

Open Source Software is Also Important

The Use of Open Source Software Continues to Increase

One Study Concluded that 84% of software developers had recently used open source software http://www.zdnet.com/article/survey-indicates-four-out-of-five-developers-now-use-open-source/

The greater use of open source software can reduce the cost of software for public transportation systems (e.g., GPS for buses and

for bus-related smart phone services)

Dedicated roads to automated vehicles

Electric vehicle charging systems

Objectives Can information technology (IT) improve the

efficiency of transportation systems in terms of energy usage and carbon emissions?

Transport of goods?

Transport of humans?

Can IT encourage greater use of

public transportation?

bicycles for commuting?

or electric vehicles?

Do these improvements in IT require changes in the design of these systems and if so, what changes?

Session Technology

1 Objectives and overview of course

2 When do new technologies become economically feasible?

3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that

better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling

4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems

5 Internet of Things, MEMS and Bio-electronics

6 Chinese New Year

7 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays

8 Roll-to Roll Printing, Human-Computer Interfaces

9 Information Technology and Land Transportation

10 DNA Sequencing and Solar Cells

This is the 9th Session of MT5009

Outline IT facilitates public transportation

State of public transportation

Ticketing, routes and scheduling

GPS and buses

Bike sharing and light rail

Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles

Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density

Electrification of Vehicles

Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging

Different Cities, Different Futures

Public Transportation and Sustainability

Trains and buses consume less energy than automobiles

20% the energy per passenger-kilometer in London

40% the energy per passenger-kilometer in Japan

What impacts on these numbers?

Trains and buses also

reduce vehicular traffic and thus vehicle congestion

use less land than do automobiles

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21569059-subways-are-spreading-fast-going-underground

Can all Cities be like Tokyo?

http://www.humantransit.org/sydney/page/2/

Greater use of public transport in:1. large cites

2. very dense centralizedcities

3. cities in whichpeople commutein samedirection

Most Cities have Low Rates of Public Transport

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_in_Boston

Large Cities and Long Commute Times Lead to High Use

of Public Transportation

http://www.slideshare.net/ce4710/copenhagen-3-15540601?qid=f10cb4ca-98cc-45f8-a0f5-e8e36599a998&v=default&b=&from_search=3

Long Distances to Rail Stations,

Less Usage of Rail

http://urbankchoze.blogspot.sg/2014_09_01_archive.html

Close Rail Stations Probably Means Shopping and

Other Things are Close

But Bus and Train Prices/Fares also Have an Impact:Prices go up and ridership goes down

http://www.planningforreality.org/category/future/

http://www.planningforreality.org/category/future/

Bus and Train Prices Apparently Rose in Late 1980s




GPS and buses







We Can and Are Solving This Problem

Software is eating public

transport, December 2013

To Smart Passes/Tickets

And the Services are also Changing and Expanding

Big Data is Also Useful

Analyze user trip data to better understand actual trips

Where do their trips start and stop?

Use this data to do better

route planning of buses and trains

location of stations

integration of bus and subway routes

Reduce breakdowns through better sensing and pattern analysis

Seoul claims that it improved its system through better IT and Big Data http://www.slideshare.net/simrc/seoul-public-transportation?qid=68d590a9-c62f-4c24-9b5f-

236c36c6dda2&v=default&b=&from_search=10

Singapore is also doing Big Data with public transportation https://www.techinasia.com/ibm-create-smarter-singapore-starting-transport-system/




GPS and buses







Riding Buses is a Hassle

Which bus?

Where is the bus stop?

When do the buses arrive?

Where is that guide to buses?

Typical American response: Maybe I should just take a taxi or buy a car…..

But help is on the way

Global Positioning Systems (GPS)Space segment -

composed of GPS

satellites that transmit

time & position

in the form of radio

signals to the user

Control segment -

composed of all the

ground-based facilities

that are used to

monitor and control

the satellites

User segment - consists of

the users & GPS receivers

http://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=UPREDCWFPf8NgM&tbnid=xtT0rrr7wttLWM:&ved=&url=http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/the-usas-gps-iii-satellites-04900/&ei=tzJ1UpWTKom_rgfTzoDYDw&psig=AFQjCNGxPwUbM6lH-dZyxUFM4MBoW7N_DQ&ust=1383498807778204

http://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=UPREDCWFPf8NgM&tbnid=xtT0rrr7wttLWM:&ved=&url=http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/the-usas-gps-iii-satellites-04900/&ei=tzJ1UpWTKom_rgfTzoDYDw&psig=AFQjCNGxPwUbM6lH-dZyxUFM4MBoW7N_DQ&ust=1383498807778204

GPS: Improvements in Accuracy

Ref: http://www.gps.gov

Err

ors

Fal

l

Improvements in GPS continue to Occur

More Detailed Data on Improvements in Accuracy

(reductions in root mean square for x, y, and z axes)

Along with Improvements in other Electronics,

Phones are Becoming Great Navigation DevicesMany Apps are Also Available

With GPS on

buses and data

made public,

apps for

buses are also

emerging and

getting better

Phones Help Us Know Routes, Bus Stops, and Bus Arrival Times

Can These Apps Increase Bus Ridership? Bus apps can or will eventually tell you

Locations of bus stops (and train stations and you)

Arrival times, within a few minutes

When to start walking to bus stop

Data on riders also helps bus companies do route planning

Eventually apps will summarize transport alternatives and their comparative times among buses, trains, bikes

Smart phones will become cheap enough for all 7 Billion of the world’s population, and they will continue to get better

Displays become more sensitive, durable, flexible and conform better to wrists and other parts of our bodies

See Sessions 4, 6 and 8 for more information on phones, displays and human-computer interfaces http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

Can open source software reduce the capital costs of these systems?

http://www.thirteen.org/metrofocus/2012/03/does-knowing-count-comparing-urban-bus-tracking-systems-and-ridership/

http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/local-buses-to-receive-gps-tracking-upgrades/article_50f648f1-1b68-5ab1-afaa-8221d621840b.html?mode=jqm

Can WiFi Increase Ridership?

Providing free Wi-Fi to bus and train riders can increase users of buses and trains

Cost of Wi-Fi keeps falling so this becomes an increasingly inexpensive perk for riders

People can enjoy their public transportation experience more than they can driving their cars

Can choose education or entertainment

No road rage!

Average miles driven per capita is falling

Fewer car licenses for young people City residents don’t own cars

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/01/why-do-the-smartest-cities-have-the-smallest-share-of-cars/283234// http://www.economist.com/node/21563280

http://www.ssti.us/2013/02/per-capita-vmt-ticks-

down-for-eighth-straight-year/

56%

The End of Car in U.S.?




GPS and buses







Popular Countries and Cities for Bicycles

Mostly Europe and Japan

http://www.copenhagenize.com/2009/07/worlds-most-bicycle-friendly-cities.html

www.spokefly.com/blog/top-10-countries-bicycles-per-capita/

Other Cities Have Similar Problems

http://inhabitat.com/tokyos-eco-cycle-park-is-a-state-of-the-art-

underground-bicycle-elevator/http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2013/06/5-robotic-bike-parking-

systems-that-solve-an-urban-dilemma/

Are these the Solutions? More Storage Spaces?

Figure 4. From chaos to order: the benefits of bike storage

Can we Move from Chaos to Order?

How About Bicycle Sharing?

How does it workUsers register for service, borrow bikes using phones, phones help find bike stations

AdvantagesReduced space for bike storageSpace can be used for

other thingsFaster parking and finding

of bicyclesCan facilitate train usage

What is it?Borrow bikes for short time period

ChallengesMaintenanceRedistribution of

bicyclesThefts/vandalism

Costs? Less than one dollar through open source software and sufficient volumes

http://www.slideshare.net/renartz/sharing-space-time?qid=a5a9db03-bba1-4cc0-b2e2-27c76655899b&v=default&b=&from_search=3

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/3-charts-explain-nyc-bike-share-success-2014-3

Between launch in

May 2013 and

March 2014,

Users of NY City’s

bike share program

took more than 6.5

million Citi Bike

trips, and nearly

100,000 people

have become

annual riders.

Many of these bikes

are used in

combination with

rail.

Bike Sharing can Promote Rail Usage


NY City Placed more of the bike stations close

to rail stations than did Chicago or Washington DC


NY (Citi Bike) vs. Chicago (Divvy) and Washington DC (Capital)

Capital (top) and Operating Costs Can be High

http://www.slideshare.net/renartz/sharing-space-time?qid=a5a9db03-bba1-4cc0-b2e2-27c76655899b&v=default&b=&from_search=3

But Remember

More users lead to lower capital and operating costs per user

The cost of these systems will fall as

cost of information technology (including phones) falls

and we design better systems, perhaps using open source software

can universities promote open source software?

As mobile phones get better, sharing bikes becomes easier

Space for bicycle storage can be sold or leased to finance bike

sharing systems

Bicycle storage is usually in expensive downtown locations

Often next to train stations

This space can be sold or leased to restaurants, cafes, etc. for millions of

dollars each year

http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2013/update112

A bit of a tangent, but we can also share

car parking spaces using mobile phones

Other policies being promoted for parking in US and Europe1. Eliminate minimum parking space requirements

2. Raise prices and adjust them according to demand.

Since streets are too congested with parked cars and people looking for parking spaces

And Help Drivers Find Parking Spaces

Reduce gas and frustration from driving around looking for parking spaces 45% of traffic on streets in Brooklyn related to searching

for parking, 24% in Soho

Can increase utilization of parking facilities with IT (38% without IT vs. 17% with IT)

IT can provide dynamic signs (with LCD displays), parking apps, smart payment and other services

And of course IT can improve vehicle navigation Shortest distance routes

Ones with least traffic

http://www.slideshare.net/ChristianMcCarrick/facilitating-mobility-parking-public-and-alternative-transportation?qid=

68d590a9-c62f-4c24-9b5f-236c36c6dda2&v=default&b=&from_search=4




GPS and buses


Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles (AVs)





Roads Dedicated to AVs

Improvements in IT are making this economically feasible

While not as environmentally friendly as bicycles, buses, and trains, dedicating roads to AVs can reduce inter-vehicle distances on roads

reduce delays at traffic signals

and thus increase both capacity of roads and speeds of vehicles

resulting higher speeds will increase fuel efficiency (figure 7) and reduce carbon emissions

In the long term, AVs can reduce car ownership and

thus necessary space for roads and parking

cities can use reduced space to close parking garages and block vehicles from some streets, thus resulting in higher quality city environments.

Dedicated Roads Lead to Higher Capacity Roads

Dedicated Roads Lead to Fewer Delays at Traffic Signals

Roads dedicated to AVs can have higher speeds and

thus higher Fuel Efficiencies

Can we move these

cars at 30MPH or faster?

Cost of Autonomous Vehicles (Google Car) Falls as Improvements

in Lasers and Other “Components” Occur

Source: Wired Magazine, http://www.wired.com/magazine/2012/01/ff_autonomouscars/3/

Better Lasers, Camera chips, MEMS, ICs, GPS Are Making these

Vehicles Economically Feasible1 Radar: triggers alert when something

is in blind spot

2 Lane-keeping: Cameras recognize lane

markings by spotting contrast between road

surface and boundary lines

3 LIDAR: Light Detection and Ranging

system depends on 64 lasers, spinning at

upwards of 900 rpm, to generate a 360-

degree view

4 Infrared Camera: camera detects

objects

5 Stereo Vision: two cameras build a

real-time 3-D image of the road ahead

6 GPS/Inertial Measurement: tells us

location on map

7 Wheel Encoder: wheel-mounted

sensors measure wheel velocity

ICs interpret and act on this data

What an Autonomous Vehicle Sees

When Will AVs Become Economically Feasible?

According to one source, cost of “Google Car” is $150,000 of which most is for electronic components (e.g., about $70,000 is for LIDAR)

Current rates of improvement are 30%-40% If costs drop 25% a year, cost of electronics will drop by 90% in ten

years

Sensors are being incorporated into existing vehicles http://www.ti.com/ww/en/analog/car-of-the-future/?DCMP=gma-tra-carofthefuture-en&HQS=carofthefuture-bs-en

What about dedicating roads or lanes in roads to AVs? Would this reduce the technical requirements of the cars and thus

make them cheaper?

Cars could rely more on wireless communication, magnetic stripes and other inexpensive sensors than on LIDAR

AVs could move very quickly thus reducing travel time, no more traffic jams!

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jun/02/autonomous-cars-expensive-google-

Many Advantages for Autonomous Vehicles and Roads Dedicated to Them

Less congestion and higher fuel efficiencies

More cars per area and thus either higher capacity roads or fewer lanes on the roads

Fewer crashes, accidents, deaths, ambulances, and insurance expenditures

Lighter vehicles might become more common since lower probability of accidents (higher fuel efficiency)

Less traffic tickets and police officers

Along with public transportation, less ownership of vehicles and less parking spaces

Sources: http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/05/for-self-driving-car-future-traffic.html#more

See next slide for more details on references

Sources from last slideA highly popular article on Slashdot and Reddit Futurologymakes note that the Google driverless car has not gotten a traffic ticket after driving 700,000 miles. Local government revenue in the USA was $1.73 trillion in 2014. So the traffic tickets make up 0.38% of the local government revenue.Self driving cars could save $500 billion in the USA from avoided crashes and traffic jams and can boost city productivity by 30% of urban GDP after a few decades enabling larger and denser cities. So traffic tickets are 1.2% of the $500 billion from avoided crashes and traffic jams in the US. It is even less worldwide with more crashes and traffic jam costs. It is 0.15% of the 30% of urban GDP. In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, killing 32,885 and injuring 2,239,000 in the United States. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 33,561 people died in motor vehicle crashes in 2012, up 3.3 percent from 32,479 in 2011. In 2012, an estimated 2,362,000 people were injured in motor vehicle crashes, up 6.5 percent from 2,217,000 in 2011. In 2012, the average auto liability claim for property damage was $3,073; the average auto liability claim for bodily injury was $14,653. In 2012, the average collision claim was $2,950; the average comprehensive claim was $1,585. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says in 2010 that the cost of medical care and productivity losses associated with motor vehicle crash injuries was over $99 billion, or nearly $500, for each licensed driver in the United States. All car crash costs in the USA are estimated at $400 billion per year. In 2013, worldwide the total number of road traffic deaths remains unacceptably high at 1.24 million per year

Traffic Congestion $100 billion cost in the USAIn the USA, using standard measures, waste associated with traffic congestion summed to $101 billion of delay and fuel cost. The cost to the average commuter was $713 in 2010 compared to an inflation-adjusted $301 in 1982 Sixty million Americans suffered more than 30 hours of delay in 2010 1.9 billion gallons of fuel were wasted because of traffic congestion Traffic congestion caused aggregate delays of 4.8 billion hours. Transport 2012.org puts a 200 billion Euro price tag on congestion in Europe (approximately 2% of GDP). Central America also has its traffic woes. Let’s not forget other countries. On the weekend, Panama found that the price of congestion for business and the community was somewhere between $500 million-$2 billion annually. According to the Asian Development Bank, road congestion costs economies 2%–5% of gross domestic product every year due to lost time and higher transport costs.

More traffic density and Larger, More Productive City populations can boost GDP by 30%Google told the world it has developed computer driving tech that is basically within reach of doubling (or more) the capacity of a road lane to pass cars. Pundits don’t seem to realize just how big a deal this is – it could let cities be roughly twice as big, all else equal. Seminal work by Ciccone and Hall (1996) assessed the impacts of density on productivity in the US, and found that doubling employment density, and keeping all other factors constant, increased average labor productivity by around 6%. Subsequent work by Ciccone (1999) found that in Europe, all other things being equal, doubling employment density increased productivity by 5%. A third paper (Harris and Ioannides, 2000) applies the logic directly to metropolitan areas and also finds a 6% increase in productivity with a doubling of density. More recent work by Dan Graham (2005b, 2006) examines the relationship between increased effective density (which takes into account time travelled between business units) and increased productivity across different industries. Graham finds that across the whole economy, the urbanisation elasticity (that is, the response of productivity to changes in density) is 0.125. This means that a 10% increase in effective density, holding all other factors constant, is associated with a 1.25% increase in productivity for firms in that area. Doubling the density of an area would result in a 12.5% increase in productivity. Economist Robin Hanson noted that doubling the population of any city requires only about an 85% increase in infrastructure, whether that be total road surface, length of electrical cables, water pipes or number of petrol stations. This systematic 15% savings happens because, in general, creating and operating the same infrastructure at higher densities is more efficient, more economically viable, and often leads to higher-quality services and solutions that are impossible in smaller places. Interestingly, there are similar savings in carbon footprints — most large, developed cities are ‘greener’ than their national average in terms of per capita carbon emission. Road capacity could be boosted by 4 times using robotic cars. This could be another 30% boost to productivity.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/05/for-self-driving-car-future-traffic.html#more

http://tech.slashdot.org/story/14/05/20/1752254/driverless-cars-could-cripple-law-enforcement-budgets

http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/263ojn/driverless_cars_could_cripple_law_enforcement/

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/numbers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

http://www.rmiia.org/auto/traffic_safety/Cost_of_crashes.asp

http://www.milkeninstitute.org/presentations/slides/GC14-4915.pdf

http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/

http://www.ecf.com/news/the-darker-side-of-traffic-jams-congestion-costs-billions-to-world-economy/

http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/06/how-sky-cities-and-robotic-cars-will.html

Real Benefits of AVs Come When Roads are Dedicated to Them

Vehicles are Controlled by Wireless Communication Technologies on Dedicated Roads

Cars are checked for autonomous capability when they enter a dedicated road

Route plans are checked and integrated with other route plans

Improvements in computer processing power facilitate checking and integrating

Much of these calculations would be done in secure cloud

Roads Dedicated to AVs also Simplifies Solutions

Magnets and RFID tags can be embedded in highways to help control vehicles

They create an invisible railway

Estimated cost in Singapore <200M SGD for magnets <110M SGD for RFID Very cheap, less than 2SGD

per vehicle

Wireless Communication May Become Main Method of Controlling AVs

Vehicles are Controlled by Wireless Communication Technologies on Dedicated Roads

Cars are checked for autonomous capability when they enter a dedicated road

Route plans are checked and integrated with other route plans

Improvements in computer processing power facilitate checking and integrating

Much of these calculations would be done in secure cloud

Improvements in Latency (delay times) Enable

Centralized Control of Vehicles

Latency is Still Falling

Expected to fall below 0.1 milliseconds with wireless 5G services that will be implemented by early 2020s Jones R 2015. Telecom’s Next Goal: Defining 5G, Wall Street Journal, March 9.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/telecom-industry-bets-on-5g-1425895320

Could AVs become the main market for cellular 5G services

Processing is done in cloud and the cost of these cloud services continues to fall

Falling latency requires better IT, but this keeps occurring through Moore’s Law

High Processing Capability is Needed to Control Vehicles

Improvements in Integrated Circuits and Computers Enable this Processing Power

Processing power for 100 km road by vehicle inflow and reaction times

(Several thousands PCs)

Many of the Computer Calculations (price per car)

Would be Done in the Cloud

Moore’s Law Drives Reductions in Cloud

Computing Services (price per car)

Less Ownership of Private Vehicles?

Autonomous vehicles make autonomous taxis feasible

Just reserve a taxi with your mobile phone

Combined with other changes, private ownership of cars will probably continue to drop

Increased use of public transportation

New services such as those from Uber (easy to rent taxis) and Zipcar (rent cars)

Uber’s service may also revolutionize delivery; rent a delivery service with your mobile phone

Key Issue for Cities

Do they reduce the amount of road and parking space?

Or do they keep the same space, and thus allow many more vehicles on the road?

How does this choice impact on sustainability and quality of life?

Do people ride vehicles more?

Do they ride them further distances




GPS and buses


Also roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles

Also greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density




Many Ways to Do Electric Vehicles 1) Electric vehicle with same range and acceleration as

gasoline engines Electric motors have similar power densities as engines

But low energy and power storage densities of batteries (and capacitors and flywheels) make this difficult to achieve

2) Use both gasoline and electric storage, i.e., hybrid Very expensive to include both

Most users choose vehicles based on price

3) All electric but with low capacity electric storage and high density of (rapid) charging stations Can we recharge more frequently?

With rapid charging and/or high density of charging stations?

With wireless or wired charging?

Source: (Koh and Magee, 2008)

Electric Motors Have Similar Power Density as Engines

Major Bottleneck is Low Energy Storage Density of Batteries

Why is this

important?

When will

batteries have

similar levels of

energy density

as gasoline?

1 megajoule = 0.28 kwH

Meg

aJoule

sP

er L

iter

MegaJoules Per Kg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Energy_density.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Energy_density.svg

High Energy Densities

Are obviously important for vehicles

The vehicle must carry the fuel/battery

Vicious cycle: heavier fuel/battery means more fuel/battery is needed

Energy/Power densities are important for all energy technologies

Higher energy/power density of engines leads to better fuel efficiency and performance for automobiles, aircraft, ships

Even for stationary engines, higher energy/power densities often lead to lower costs per output since costs are often related to size

Storage type Specific energy (MJ/kg)

Indeterminate matter and antimatter 89,876,000,000 *

Deuterium-tritium fusion 576,000,000

Uranium-235 used in nuclear weapons 88,250,000

Natural uranium (99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235) in fast breeder reactor 86,000,000

Reactor-grade uranium (3.5% U-235) in light water reactor 3,456,000

30% Pu-238 α-decay 2,200,000

Hf-178m2 isomer 1,326,000

Natural uranium (0.7% U235) in light water reactor 443,000

30% Ta-180m isomer 41,340

Even Higher Energy Densities Exist

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

*about 4740 kg of antimatter could have supplied humans with all their energy needs in 2008. for more information

on anti-matter, see Michio Kaku, Physics of the Impossible, New York: Doubleday, 2008

Another way to look at energy density:This is from the perspective of land

Source: Vaclav Smil

Source: Koh and Magee, 2008

Returning to Energy Storage Density for Batteries

(Improvements per weight)

1 megajoule = 0.28 kwH

Batteries

Improvements in Energy Storage Density (per volume)


Batteries


Improvements in Energy Storage (per cost)

Batteries

2012

Electric

Vehicle

Sources: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future, presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October

19-20. http://electronicdesign.com/power/here-comes-electric-propulsion http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/panasonic-20091225.html

More Recent Data on Li-Ion Batteries (5% per year)

Today’s

Tesla

Model

S has

800 Wh/l

Improvements in Energy Storage Density

Slow rate for Li-ion batteries

at 5% per year, it will take >50 years for batteries to have same energy density of gasoline

Flywheels and capacitors have faster rates of improvement

Capacitors are fastest but are behind the others

Flywheels have similar levels as batteries

Both are used in Formula 1 vehicles

How can we reduce need for high energy storage densities? Hybrids is current option, but they will always be more expensive than

conventional vehicles

Can we recharge more frequently? With rapid charging and/or high density of charging stations?

Should we use wired or wireless charging?

Improvements in Cost are also a Problem

Ford Motor Co. CEO Alan Mulally said in April 2012 Battery weighs 600-700 pounds and provides 23 kilowatt

hours (120 km?)

Battery costs 12-15,000 USD

In other words, the batteries represent a significant fraction of total price ($12,000 to $15,000 for car that normally sells for about $22,000).

So the total price about $39,200 for Ford’s Focus EV

Analysts then calculated between $522 and $650 a kilowatt hour for EV batteries

http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304432704577350052534072994




GPS and buses







Electrification of Vehicles (1) It’s not just the addition of an energy storage devices;

electrical controls are replacing mechanical controls water and oil pumps, radiator cooling fans

steering systems, brakes, throttles, shock absorbers

The next great step, which has already occurred in locomotives, large trucks, and aircraft Electric drive trains will replace the gearbox, driveshaft,

differential

They have higher power densities and are more reliable than drives that rely on shafts, gears, belts, and hydraulic fluids

This enables significant reduction in weight of car and thus amount of energy storage density in batteries

More general source: Peter Huber, Mark Mills, 2006, The Bottomless Well:

The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy

http://cesa-automotive-electronics.blogspot.sg/2012/09/dual-voltage-power-supply-system-with.html

Electrification of Vehicles (2)

Part of the trend towards electrical controls are being driven by improvements in semiconductors

Electrical controls use semiconductors

Power semiconductors experience improvements each year as do integrated circuits (ICs)

Improvements occur in dimension of more power per area (through new materials) and thus lower costs

but not to the extent of microprocessors and memory

Several types of power electronics/semiconductors

Greater power requires more expensive power electronics

Faster rates of improvement with lower power

Sources: http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/eper_07.htm and The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the

Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy, Peter Huber and Mark P. Mills

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/nanochip/nanochip-fab-

solutions/december-2013/power-struggle

Greater Power Requires More Expensive Power Electronics

(Insulated Gate

Bipolar Transistor)

Metal Oxide Semiconductor

Field Effect Transistors)

Source: http://www.embedded.com/design/components-and-packaging/4371098/New-power-semiconductor-technologies-

challenge-assembly-and-system-setups

Improvements in IGBTs are Slow – only 3.4% per year(Reductions in Voltages for same Current and thus reductions in area and cost)

Source: http://www.embedded.com/design/components-and-packaging/4371098/New-power-semiconductor-technologies-

challenge-assembly-and-system-setups

Improvements in MOSFETs are Much Faster (16% per year)(Reductions in Resistance for same Current and thus Reductions in Area and Costs)

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1272514

New Materials Have Even Lower Resistance and Higher Breakdown Voltages, which Leads to Higher Current Densities

Timing for Electrification of Vehicles

It is going to happen very soon

Much faster than doubling of energy storage densities

Electrification will reduce weight of vehicle and thus necessary size of energy storage device

It will have a larger percentage impact on small than large cars

It can be another facilitator of electric vehicles

Let’s return to electric vehicles

Where improvements in power electronics are also improving the economic feasibility of charging equipment for electric vehicles




GPS and buses







Many Ways to Do Electric Vehicles

1) Electric vehicle with same range and acceleration as gasoline engines

Electric motors have similar power densities as engines

Low energy and power storage densities of batteries (and capacitors and flywheels) make this difficult to achieve

2) Use both gasoline and electric storage, i.e., hybrid

Very expensive to include both

Most users choose vehicles based on price

3) All electric but with low capacity electric storage and high density of (rapid) charging stations

Can we recharge more frequently?

With rapid charging and/or high density of charging stations?

With wired or wireless charging?

High Density of (Rapid) Charging Stations

Greater density of charging stations enables greater

frequency of battery charging and thus less battery

capacity

Fast charging can also reduce the need for battery

capacity (and need for high density of charging stations)

Both cost and speed of charging stations depend on

power electronics and their rates of improvement

Other improvements in IT also facilitate public charging

GPS enables cars to more easily find and reserve a charger

Smart payment systems and smart grids facilitate decentralized

sale of electricity and charging

Many Inefficiencies in Charging:

25.4 kWh at wall plug is reduced to 21.4 (84% efficiency)

Cost of charging station?

Rate of charging?

How much more expensive for fast charging?

Is wireless cheaper or faster?

Performance and Cost of Charging Stations

Cost of Charging Stations

http://www.driveclean.ca.gov/pev/Charging.php

$500-$3000

$12000-$15000

Will the Cost of Charging Stations Fall?Depends on the cost of power electronics and microprocessors

Microprocessor

Control Unit

Cost of Charging Stations will Fall Rapidly

Cost of power electronics (MOSFETs) fall 16% each year

Highest power also rises and thus rates of charging also rise over time

Result is both

falling costs

higher rates of charging

For example, if price of 15,000 USD charger falls 10% per year

In 10 years the cost will be 5770 USD

If 1,000,000 chargers (139,000 chargers/km2 or 0.139 chargers /m2) are need in Singapore to effectively use 100,000 electric vehicles, 5.77 Billion USD in chargers

Wireless vs. Wired Charging Advantages of Wireless

Protected connections (away from water/oxygen)

Durability (less wear and tear); Faster connections

Disadvantages

Lower efficiency/slower charging particularly as distance becomes larger than coil diameter

More expensive

Improvements in electronics are reducing the disadvantages

Eight Innovations for Successful Wireless Charging Inductive, bidirectional charging system

with 22 kilowatts and 95 percent efficiency

Position car precisely over inductive charging

station using laser scanner

Charging components integrated in

underground shaft

Cloud-based charging management

On-board unit ensures seamless

communication between fleet of shard

vehicles

Users register, personalize profiles, book a

car or charging station with phone

Cloud collects mobility-relevant data over

internet connection

Cars location known via Wi-Fi positioning

system, GPS, inertial sensors

http://www.iao.fraunhofer.de/lang-en/business-areas/mobility-and-urban-systems-engineering/1111-e-car-sharing-comes-of-age.html

Wireless chargers are also made from power and other electronics

Big Differences between Wired and Wireless is Thin Film Coils

Cables are replaced by thin film coils in both Charging stations

Vehicles

Thin film is the basis for all electronics Semiconductors, lasers, photo-sensors, magnetic storage

Liquid crystal displays. organic displays, many solar cells

And many other technologies that experience rapid improvements

Cost improvements occur as New materials are used

Substrate size is increased (already done with semiconductor wafers and liquid crystal displays)

New processes such as roll-to roll printing

If Thin Film Coils Become Cheap, charging can be done while driving

Old Style Tram with Rails New Style Car with coils

and Overhead Lines embedded in road

Continuous Charging Dramatically reduces size of battery

Increases efficiency of charging since the motor is directly charged by the coils, bypassing the battery

But construction costs will rise………

How High are Construction Costs? For Wireless and Wired Charging?

Can we find ways to reduce these costs?

Electricity cables are everywhere underground, particularly in Singapore and other dense cities

How can we connect chargers to the cables?

Place charging stations in sewers, on backs of manhole covers, or other places?

Only place them inside roads when road and other construction is being implemented?

Road construction is always being done for some reason…..

In the end, all of these new technologies require innovative methods of implementing them




GPS and buses








Some cities will always have more public transport than others

Some cities will have trouble increasing their usage of public transport

Some reasons include differences in:

Population density

Early investments in public vs. private transport

Spatial distribution of work and residences

Direction of commutes

But some things can be said for all cities (1)

Most cities will (and should) experience increases in public transportation because of

increases in population densities

improvements in information technologies

Public transportation is the most viable means of handling large numbers of travellers

Information technology will make it easier for people to use buses, trains, and bicycles

This will reduce energy usage and carbon emissions


Most cities will (and should) experience increases in automated vehicles because they

have many advantages over conventional vehicles

These advantages are particularly large when roads are dedicated to them

More cars per area of road and higher fuel efficiencies

Cities can use automated vehicles and public transportation to reduce

need for private vehicles

amount of space for roads and parking


Fall cost of power and other electronics means that cost of charging stations will also fall

Improvements in materials will also enable faster charging

Both will enable electric vehicles with smaller batteries and thus lighter and cheaper electric vehicles

Wireless charging may end up being the most convenient due to lower maintenance and easier connections

Conclusions Information technology is improving the economics of public transportation

is making new forms of transport possible

All of these methods require effective implementation plans and incentives

Public and private firms should be considering rates of improvement in information technology and other technologies when they think of the future for transportation

In the end, sustainability is all about designing systems that use less resources and provide overall benefits to their users Rapidly improving technologies can help do this

Implementation Requires Better Partnerships Between local governments, high tech suppliers, local

businesses, and local universities

Local universities can help cities do planning and evaluation

They can also help develop open source software for Bus GPS, shared bikes, roads dedicated to AVs, and electric vehicle charging systems

Privatization also has important role

Privatize GPS services for buses, charging stations, roads dedicated to AVs

IT and Transportation Systems

Business

Transcript of IT and Transportation Systems