Ist der Effekt relevant? - · For clinical interpretation, such an analysis [SMD] may be less...
Transcript of Ist der Effekt relevant? - · For clinical interpretation, such an analysis [SMD] may be less...
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IQWiG im Dialog 2010
Ist der Effekt relevant? Erfahrungen bei der
Arzneimittelbewertung
Thomas Kaiser
Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (IQWiG) Dillenburger Str. 27 , 51105 Köln
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AusgangslageBecause
statistical
significance
can
sometimes
be
achieved
for small
changes
in PRO measures
that
may
not
be
clinically
meaningful
(i.e., do not
indicate
treatment benefit), we
encourage
sponsors
to avoid
proposing
labeling
claims
based
on statistical significance
alone.
FDA Guidance for Industry Patient-Reported Outcome Measures: Use in Medical Product Development to Support Labeling Claims (December 2009)
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Agenda
Methoden – Best practice HTA / SR?
Fallbeispiele
Diabetes mellitus
Depression
Alzheimer Demenz
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Methoden –
Best practice
HTA/SR?
NICE Methodendokumente
Cochrane-Handbook
IQWiG-Methoden
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Methoden -
NICE
Guides to the Methods of Technology Appraisal
2004: nicht adressiert
2008: nicht adressiert
The Guidelines Manual 2009: nicht adressiert
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Methoden -
Cochrane
Cochrane Handbook
2002: nicht adressiert
2004: nicht adressiert
2008 (5.0.1): erstmals adressiert
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Methoden –
Cochrane
Handbook
5.0.1
… misinterpretation … to assume that a result with a small P value for the summary effect estimate implies that an intervention has an important benefit.
…such [continous] outcomes may be difficult to interpret, particularly when they relate to rating scales.
Knowledge of the smallest change in instrument score that patients perceive is important – the minimal important difference – and can greatly facilitate the interpretation of results.
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Methoden –
Cochrane
Handbook
5.0.1
Rules of thumb exist for interpreting SMDs (or ‘effect sizes’) […] 0.2 represents a small effect, 0.5 a moderate effect, and 0.8 a large effect (Cohen 1988). Variations exist (for example, <0.41 = small, 0.40 to 0.70 = moderate, >0.70 = large).
Another, perhaps even less satisfactory, approach suggests that a standardized mean difference of 0.5 approximates, in many cases, to a minimal important difference
However, some methodologists believe that such interpretations are problematic because patient importance of a finding is context-dependent and not amenable to generic statements.
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Methoden –
Cochrane
Handbook
5.0.1
For clinical interpretation, such an analysis [SMD] may be less helpful than dichotomizing responses and presenting proportions of patients benefiting.
Methods are available for creating dichotomous data out of reported means and standard deviations, but require assumptions that may not be met.
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Methoden –
Cochrane
Handbook
5.0.1
Ideally, review authors will present estimates of the MID in the abstract. While this is very helpful, it potentially tempts clinicians to make inappropriate inferences. If the MID is 0.5 and the mean difference between treatments is 0.4, clinicians may infer that nobody benefits from the intervention. If the mean difference is 0.6, they may conclude that everyone benefits.
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Methoden –
Cochrane
-
Zusammenfassung
Bewertung der Relevanz ist wichtig, insbesondere für Skalen
MID ist wichtig
Die Bewertung des Effektschätzers allein ist unzureichend
Selbst berechnete Responderraten sind eine Möglichkeit fürdie Relevanzbewertung
Die Bewertung der SMD ist eine Möglichkeit für die Relevanzbewertung
Alle Verfahren haben Nachteile
Keine konkrete Handlungsanleitung
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Methoden -
IQWiG
Allgemeine Methoden:
2005 (1.0): adressiert, aber ohne konkrete Handlungsanleitung
2006 (2.0): adressiert, aber ohne konkrete Handlungsanleitung
2008 (3.0): adressiert, aber ohne konkrete Handlungsanleitung
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Methoden –
IQWiG
Für die Beurteilung der klinischen Relevanz von Studienergebnissen gibt es noch kein breit akzeptiertes methodisches Vorgehen. (2005: …ist ein weitgehend ungelöstes Problem)
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Methoden –
IQWiG
Erster Ansatz: Bewertung des Effektschätzers und des dazugehörigen Konfidenzintervalls mit Hilfe medizinischer Sachkenntnis. Formales Relevanzkriterium: Beurteilung der unteren Konfidenzgrenze für den Effektschätzer beziehungsweise die Anwendung eines statistischen Tests mit Verschiebung der Nullhypothese.Weitere Möglichkeit: Responderdefinition. Darüber hinaus spielt die individuelle Einschätzung der Betroffenen eine wesentliche Rolle.
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Methoden –
IQWiG
2008: Für die Frage, ob sich aus offenen Studien ein Hinweis für einen Nutzen einer Intervention bezüglich PRO ableiten lässt, ist die Größe des beobachteten Effekts ein wichtiges Entscheidungskriterium.
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Methoden –
IQWiG -
Zusammenfassung
Verschiedene Möglichkeiten derRelevanzbewertung (auch: verschobeneNullhypothese)
Effektstärke bei PRO / offene Studien wichtigesEntscheidungskriterium
Keine konkrete Handlungsanleitung
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Fallbeispiel –
Diabetes mellitus
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Fallbeispiel –
Diabetes mellitus
7 Abschlussberichte
Zielgröße Krankheitsspezifisch MID Generisch MID
Lebensqualität 6 0 (0%) 2 2 (100%)Therapiezufriedenheit 3 0 (0%) 0 -
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Fallbeispiel –
Diabetes mellitus
Generische Instrumente (MID vorhanden):
Kein statistisch signifikanter Unterschied Mittelwert
Keine Responderanalysen
Krankheitsspezifische Instrumente (keine MID):
Nur im Ausnahmefall statistisch signifikanter Unterschied
Dann geringe Effektstärke bei offenen Studien
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Fallbeispiel –
Depression
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Fallbeispiel –
Depression
2 Abschlussberichte
A05-20A: Duloxetin, Venlafaxin (2009)
A05-20C: Bupropion, Mirtazapin, Reboxetin (2009)
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95%CI > 0,5 SMDBeleg für Nutzen
95%CI < 0,5 SMDKein Nutzen
0,5 SMD in 95%CIHinweis auf Nutzen
NICE –
CG23
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A05-20A –
Duloxetin
(antidepressive Symptomatik)
Response:
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A05-20A –
Duloxetin
(antidepressive Symptomatik)
SMD:
Fazit: Beleg für einen Nutzen
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A05-20C –
Mirtazapin
(antidepressive Symptomatik)
Response:
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A05-20A –
Duloxetin
(antidepressive Symptomatik)
SMD:
Fazit: Beleg für einen Nutzen bzgl. Response
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Depression -
Zusammenfassung
Bei weitgehend homogenen Analysen Response / SMD kongruent
Nutzenbeleg bei statistisch signifikantem Ergebnis bzgl. Response
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Fallbeispiel –
Alzheimer Demenz
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Fallbeispiel –
Alzheimer Demenz
3 Abschlussberichte
A05-19A: Cholinesterasehemmer (2007)
A05-19B: Ginkgo (2008)
A05-19C: Memantin (2009)
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A05-19A -
Cholinesterasehemmer
Beispiel Kognition (Donepezil)
Fazit: Beleg für Nutzen („…hat einen Nutzen…“)
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A05-19A -
Cholinesterasehemmer
Beispiel Aktivitäten des tgl. Lebens (Galantamin)
Fazit: Hinweis auf einen Nutzen ( kein Beleg für einen Nutzen)
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A05-19B -
Ginkgo
Beispiel Aktivitäten des tgl. Lebens
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A05-19B -
Ginkgo
Beispiel Aktivitäten des tgl. Lebens (nur hohe Dosis)
Fazit: Beleg für einen Nutzen (hohe Dosis, Patienten mit begleitenden psychopathologischen Symptomen, Übertragbarkeit?)
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A05-19C –
MemantinBeispiel Kognition
Fazit: Kein Beleg für einen Nutzen
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A05-19C –
Memantin
EPAR 2005:
The MAH provided additional data (a meta-analyses and a responders analysis)…
The meta-analyses on the efficacy endpoints showedstatistically significant and clinically relevant effects of memantine compared to placebo on the cognitive (p<0.001) ... domains with effect sizes in the same range as AChEIs.
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A05-19C –
Memantin
Effekt Kognition Memantin / Donepezil (vs. Placebo):
Memantin: 0.20 [0.07; 0.33]
Donepezil: 0.51 [0.42; 0.60]
„effect size in the same range“?
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A05-19C –
Memantin
EPAR 2005:
The triple responder analyses were performed based on definitions that identified patients whose condition concurrentlyworsened in all three domains during the 6-month treatment: Marked Clinical Worsening – a decline of ≥4 points on the ADAS-cog or ≥5 points on the SIB and a decline on the CIBIC-plus and a decline on the ADL.
MID für ADL? Ist jegliche Änderung auf der ADL-Skala relevant? (Standardabweichung ADL23 im Median ca. 10 Punkte)
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Molnar
et al., JAGS 2009
Despite
being
central
to the
interpretation
of trial
results
…, patient- and caregiver-centered
measures
of clinical
significance
have
not
been
adequately
studied
and integrated
into
dementia
drug
RCTs.
The most commonly cited measures of clinical significance were a 4-point change in the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale -
Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog)…
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Molnar
et al., JAGS 2009
Despite
being
central
to the
interpretation
of trial
results
…, patient- and caregiver-centered
measures
of clinical
significance
have
not
been
adequately
studied
and integrated
into
dementia
drug
RCTs.
The most commonly cited measures of clinical significance were a 4-point change in the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale -
Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog)…
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Alzheimer Demenz -
Zusammenfassung
Bezüglich Nutzenbeleg konsistente Schlussfolgerungen, obwohl die Effektstärke zunächst nur implizit herangezogen wurde
Vorliegende Responderanalysen unzureichend
Allgemein Forschungsbedarf hinsichtlich Relevanzkriterien
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Zusammenfassung
Methodik der Relevanzbewertung international unzureichend (Reviews / HTA / Studienebene)
Validierte MIDs fehlen oft
Responderanalysen häufig unzureichend
Implizite / explizite Relevanzbewertung des IQWiG weitgehend kongruent
(Responderanalysen / SMD in der Praxis kongruent)