Forging the National Economy. Creating an American Character.
Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns March 23, 2011.
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Transcript of Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns March 23, 2011.
Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns
March 23, 2011
Announcements
No class next week; instead we will meet before the final exam (in May) for a review session.
Final exam scheduled 20 May
How predictable are elections?
Economic conditions
Government popularity
Past performance
Forecasting British Elections
Belanger (2005) “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election” BJPIR 7: 191-198
The Forecast
Actual result: Labour 35%
Another Forecast of the 2005 British Election
Source: Whiteley (2005) “Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections”BJPIR 7:165-173.
Actual result: Labour 356 Seats; Conservatives 198 Seats; Liberal Democrats 52 seats
US Elections
Abramowitz (2008) “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-ChangeModel” PS: Political Science & Politics 41(4): 691-695
The 2008 Election
Actual result: Obama 53%
If elections are predictable why is opinion fluid...
British Voting intentions (2005-10)
See www.ukpollingreport.co.uk
Enlightenment Theory
Campaigns “educate” voters
Campaigns activate “fundamentals” such as performance evaluations, group characteristics, party cues...
Example of Activation
For issues to matter in an election
Candidates/parties must differ
Prospective voters must perceive the differences
They must be correct about the difference
On the other hand...
There are incentives for candidates to obfuscate
Prospective voters are often ignorant of where candidates/parties stand
Individuals’ views on different issues may not point to the same preference
Issue Ownership
Parties build up reputations in particular policy areas
Parties come to “own” these issues
Try to make elections about the issues they “own”
“Old” vs. “New?” issues
Issue Space
Issue Voting in Britain
When are issues likely to be more/less important?
When parties are far apart
If parties/candidates successfully “cross-pressure” voters
When candidates talk about them
When media focus on them
The Economy
Retrospective or prospective?
Egocentric or sociotropic?
Is it affected by institutional clarity of responsibility?
Is a good economy as influential as a bad economy?
Does political knowledge affect the relationship?
When is the economy likely to be more/less important?
When parties are far apart
When responsibility is clear
When times are tough
When candidates talk about it
When media focus on it
Valence Issues
Issues that are uniformly liked or disliked as opposed to a position issue on which opinion is divided.
Valence issues are less demanding
Corruption, competence, honesty, integrity
Assessments about leadership performance
Character
Competence
Integrity
Leadership
Empathy
Brown’s Public Image
Survey End Date
Belief StrongDecisiv
eCrisis Honest
In touch
Leader
Charisma
YouGov/Sunday Times
15/06/07
49 44 38 16 23 17 13 4
YouGov/Sunday Times
20/07/07
44 35 32 16 25 20 11 4
YouGov/Sunday Times
06/10/07
40 40 37 27 22 20 17 1
YouGov/Sunday Times
16/05/08
30 17 8 10 22 10 3 2
YouGov: Thinking about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which of the following qualities do you think he has? Sticks to what he believes in, Strong, Decisive, Good in a a crisis, Honest, In touch with the concerns of ordinary people, A natural leader, Charismatic, None of these, Don’t know
Character
Perception of Gore’s Honesty
Traits of Candidates
British Elections: Valence Politics
Leadership evaluations
Party identification Perceptions of competence
Economy
Summing it Up: What matters?
The economy
The issues
Character