Issue 6 June 15, 2016 Trump - Clinton · To: Shareholders of Tashota Resources Inc. From: Charles...
Transcript of Issue 6 June 15, 2016 Trump - Clinton · To: Shareholders of Tashota Resources Inc. From: Charles...
To: Shareholders of Tashota Resources Inc.
From: Charles J. Elbourne, President & CEO, Tashota Resources Inc.
Issue 6 – June 15, 2016
Trump - Clinton – And 2,700 grams (86 ounces) of GOLD!
While the majority of readers probably haven’t been following the stock market as long as I have (45 years); no doubt, you have to be wondering – What’s next in the market place for stock prices and gold? In this Market Letter, I will cover the following topics: 1. Background on the present state of the stock market and the effects of negative interest
rates on the economy and political interference.
2. The CNN Trump & Clinton Show - more specific, the Punch and Judy Show (look it up).
3. Who will win the U.S. Election – who knows but we all know who needs to win.
4. Gold’s obvious direction.
5. The Project Generation Model (PGM) and why you should buy into this concept. I call it probability insurance.
6. Why Tashota Resources Inc. (TRI) is an obvious choice for investment in this gold market.
Here we have the DJIA and S&P searching, or better yet, grasping for any news that can keep this market moving to the upside while gold has been acting like an old lion that just broke out of its cage after 4 years and four months – and its hungry for bear meat – that’s gold bear meat. The gold bears are finally starting to really feel the squeeze from the gold bulls since last December, and they have been covering their shorts ever since. In my April 2015 News Letter, I made the statement: “But one thing I have learned about the
stock market is this; “The public is always right in the middle and wrong at both ends”.
This very much appears to be the case in today’s market place (DJIA, S&P) – the DJIA is
pushing to get through to new highs (above 18,350). But why is this happening given the
state of the U.S. economy; as well as most other nation’s economies in the world, including
Europe?
CONTINUED EASY MONEY – that’s why!
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Pools of government generated cash (via the printing press) creates easy money for the
general public to invest/spend in many commodities like, housing, cars, furniture, phones,
computers, vacations, and the stock markets. The “Installment Plan” was another name for
buying on credit in the 1920’s and because it was so easy to buy this way, too many people
did so. Today, too many people are doing exactly the same thing. In the 1920’s many
people bought stocks on margin; which helped cause the Crash of 1929. Anyone that has
ever received a margin call from their broker is familiar with that scenario. The chart below
doesn’t look too encouraging either.
This chart illustrates what happens when margin debt goes to extremes - Recession
The above chart merely illustrates where too much borrowed money is finding a home in
the stock market (same thing applies to today’s housing market – again). One of the many
reasons is cheap money, i.e. low interest rates.
Of course one of the major actors in using cheap debt to borrow capital is large public
companies buying back their shares in the marketplace with the hope of inflating their
earnings and increasing their share price. This is self serving at its best.
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And this scenario of cheap money does not only apply to the U.S.; it appears in most
countries and some countries have already succumbed to negative interest rates, as noted
below.
In other words, in these countries you are given the privilege of paying the banks to hold
your money!
As I also pointed out in my December 2015 market letter; “Assume you are retired back in
2007 and have at least $1,000,000 stacked away in a short term bank savings account or other
form of saving instrument. Take the higher rate of return of, say Prime rate plus 2%, or 8%,
which is a very good return and would provide you with cash flow of $80,000/year. Two years
later in 2009 Prime is around 3%, and your instrument is paying out approximately 5%, which
produces $50,000/year; life is not so good anymore.”
You would not want to be retired or getting ready to retire living in the above noted
countries, but as I also noted in the same market letter; “Where do you go; the stock market?
So you join the crowd over time, perhaps reluctantly at first, but as the market picks up, more
and more investors jump in and reach for the companies that are most in favour, hence fanning
the flames of a new bull market in stocks – just what the government wanted you to do.
Meanwhile the government kept printing money, just like they are doing to this day – until the
merry-go-round stops and people start to get off.”
Negative rates are essentially a tax on your bank deposits, intended to discourage saving.
But while you may be thinking the market is the safe place to be, or bonds for that matter,
one should consider what might be getting ready to happen again, as happened in 2007-
2008.
This is why the U.S. government as well as most governments is really between a rock and a
hard place.
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Madam Yellen did not come out yelling about an increase in the interest rate today –see
what happened above just on that little announcement. This scenario will continue for
some time, and when they do raise rates, it will be too late and gold will probably be near
the 1400 – 1600 level - if not higher.
An interesting statistic I found at (danielamerman.com) illustrates what happens when
governments borrow money and keep on borrowing money; “Because the government (U.S.)
borrows the money to make interest payments, this could set off a chain reaction of paying
interest on money borrowed to pay interest, leading to a national debt increase of the current
$19 trillion up to $94 trillion in 20 years. So unless there are some huge tax increases, a 5%
increase in interest rates would increase the national debt by $75 trillion.”
When this happens, and it will happen (.25-point increase in December 2015 which was
just a test run to see the stock market reaction); the future will not look encouraging –
except for gold, because gold pricing thrives on uncertainty.
So if we are eventually heading into a recession or financial crisis like the financial crisis of
2007-2008, the place to be is gold and senior and junior gold stocks, because based on
present global debt outstanding, governments are cornered and can only continue to print
money.
The chart below is not encouraging, but shows how letting governments print money
(which creates more debt) at random, can lead to devastation for the average investor.
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Easy financing at first exploded housing prices in the U.S causing a real estate bubble, but
then came the downturn starting in 2006-2007 and finally bottomed out in 2012. Now the
real estate market is forming a bubble in commercial real estate as buyers look for
improved rates of return on their capital, thus fueling the next major bubble. In addition, if
the government increases bank rates indirectly, this will have an immediate effect on those
home buyers who purchased property using variable rate financing.
I remember back in the 70’s getting caught with a variable mortgage that went from 8% to
19% very quickly.
So the question now becomes; is the merry-go-round getting ready to grind to a halt? The
chart below appears to be suggesting that the DJIA is having problems at this stage.
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In my December 2015 newsletter I suggested that; “The chart of the Dow Jones above
(referring to previous December 2015 chart) doesn’t really look to healthy at this point; it seems
to have caught the flu around 18,000+. And while there are those out there that say the DJIA is
getting ready to go to 30,000, one has to wonder how that’s possible with over
US$18,000,000,000,000 in debt and counting every minute like a fire out of control, see
(www.usdebtclock.org/index.html). Meanwhile with the first leg of a downside already finished
and the rebound seems to be stopped dead in its tracks at 18,300, the stock market doesn’t look
that encouraging going into 2016.”
At this point the chart above is suggesting that the DJIA has once again caught the flu and
will have problems trying to work its way through that major distribution top.
And this is where we come to the present day sitcom known as the CNN Trump & Hilary
Show; better known as the Punch & Judy Show. This sitcom is part of the reason that the
present market place is in no-man’s-land. It is referred to as “taking the eye off the ball”.
This is what the American public is engaged in right now; their eye is off the economy and
their mind is really not on the marketplace. They are too busy watching the sitcom play out.
I believe it is reasonable to make the statement that America thrives on sensationalism; it is
part of their culture. Of course, easy access to guns fuels that sensationalism because it
presents countless incidences of shootings, based on sometimes simple disagreements over
trespassing or music being too loud.
When terrorism raises its ugly head and individuals use religion as a means to an end, the
result is more shootings and killings and unrest and uncertainty. Uncertainty in the
marketplace leads to falling market prices and increased valuation for gold.
Effectively, the government hacks are engaging in political theatrics, both Democrats and
Republicans, alike. This carnival show has come to the point of stupidity wherein the
privileged are in a contest with the poor. Read up on the French Revolution; it got so out of
control, people lost their head over it.
Trump, being a master at presentation; knows where to hit the unrest button - the poor.
Hilary being part of the establishment is relying on drawing the rich and privileged to use
their funds to try and turn the poor (and the rich) against Trump. Many of the Republican
elite are also against Trump because they are also part of the inner circle of government.
Unfortunately, Bernie lost to Hilary, although he is still swinging.
The media is doing a marvelous job of putting the public to sleep about the growing
problems in the economy and whenever Trump opens his mouth about the $19 Trillion in
debt, the elite try and change the subject.
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Who will win? The fact is America needs a business person to turn the economy around;
not economists and politicians. Reality is - the plurality of the privileged in both parties will
take every measure to make sure Trump does not win. That leaves Hilary, and almost
guarantees the U.S. economy will get into even deeper trouble (based on past performance
of Obama and the Democratic Party). This is why it is reasonable to assume that gold will
continue its uptrend at least until the elections in November, but based on election results;
either way will probably result in continuing higher gold prices because neither Hilary nor
Trump can fix the debt crisis which is now out of control.
Economists and politicians would do well to heed the advice of Winston Churchill who
stated; “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”
A quick look at the latest weekly gold chart (below) would suggest that the reverse head
and shoulders formation and very large “cup and saucer” formation as outlined in the
December 2015 market letter proved out to be a reasonably accurate call.
In that market letter I suggested a possible bottom at 1047 on the Dow;
“With the price of gold continuing to move sideways in a very sporadic fashion during the
summer months, I thought it best to just wait until something would come along and set the
stage for a breakout in the gold price, one way or the other. In other words - waiting for the
perfect storm!”
“So what could probably happen if the Fed increases the interest rate? One could expect to see
a rather sharp downdraft in the gold price on the announcement at which point I would expect
that gold might test the 1046 level and even drop to the 958 level. But that would probably be
the extent of the drop because the Chinese and Russians would be jumping in with buckets of
U.S. dollars and exchange the overstretched U.S. dollar for gold. Any drop would be rather
contained based on the probability that the current gold price has already priced in the risk of
the fed increase.”
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“Indications in the dramatic price movements in gold over the past few months would seem to
illustrate that nervousness in the marketplace is coming to a head.”
In my February 2016 market letter, I mentioned that the gold had formed a cup and handle
formation: “A case could also be made (though I’m sure technical chartists would disagree with
me) that the gold market has actually established a “cup and handle” formation. This is a very
strong formation which usually requires a previous advance before forming but in this case gold
did have somewhat of a previous uptrend from July through October of last year, so I believe it
fits the definition.” Indeed this has proven to be the case and such a technical pattern
usually proves to be not only a sustaining pattern but usually also signals a major move in
the commodity.
It is for this reason that I also stated that; “In fact a more positive outcome and much higher
prices for gold, say 1350-1400, and perhaps has high as 1600 during 2016; could take place if
more time was spend building a further base between April and June. This would provide a
huge reverse head and shoulders as long as the April – June right shoulder traded within a
boundary between, say, the present price (1240) and 1140.”
In fact this is exactly what gold has been doing; building a nice right side shoulder of a
major head and shoulder reversal pattern. Importantly; it is building this right arm with a
preference to the upside of the arm, which tends to indicate there is an increasing rush to
break out from the short term previous high of 1303. That could happen as early as this
week.
Unfortunately, another factor affecting the short term price of gold is the recent terror
attack which the other day killed 49 people and injured even more at a nightclub in Florida.
This type of action will be sure to repeat itself, in the coming year since the U.S. military
and its partners are gearing up, finally, against ISIS and now we will see copycats coming
forth.
So now that we have covered the theatrics of politicians and economists and the probable
outcome of gold; where does that leave us as investors in Tashota Resources Inc. (TRI)?
Management of Tashota designed the company in 2011 as a Prospect Generation Model
(PGM) resource company. PGM was an idea originating with the resource veteran Rick Rule
back in the 90’s wherein his concept was based on the adage that; (1) mining is capital
intensive, and (2) only one of 3,000 anomalies becomes productive.
Basically, a PGM exploration company arranges to acquire a large portfolio of prospective
grassroots projects. The company then arranges to have joint venture partners enter into
agreements to pay cash and perform work on the properties to acquire majority control,
after having fulfilled their J/V requirements.
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This provides the opportunity for PGM companies such as TRI to benefit from others’
capital to increase the value to TRI shareholders while offsetting the risks of large dilution.
Like any business model, there are certain guidelines that must be followed to ensure
success as the outcome. Guidelines include; finding the right properties, operating in safe
jurisdictions, acquiring experienced management, and most important – developing the
properties to an advanced stage before bringing in the joint venture partners. The last
guideline is where many PGM’s falter; they do not expand their exploration activities
sufficiently to add value before engaging a J/V partner. In many cases, this is a case of being
underfunded or choosing bad properties or using inexperienced geologists and not
adhering to a disciplined approach to exploration. And let’s not forget promotion, because
you can have a great property but if nobody knows about it; nobody cares.
Let’s use Hemlo as an example of promotion. Prospectors Don McKinnon, John Larche, and
Richard Hughes staked claims and discovered gold in the Hemlo camp in the early 1980s.
David Bell, a Geologist was instrumental in determining the geology of the camp, but it was
Murray Pezim and Ned Goodman that made Hemlo into the great mine it became
(21,000,000+ ounces of gold to date and expanding) – and that was the result of promotion
and capital.
Management of TRI determined early on that there were three (3) major requirements in
determining the best properties for its portfolio, these were;
1. Acquire property that is as close as possible to an existing mine or mill.
2. Acquire property that is easily accessible, has good prospects; that someone else has
spent serious money on the property and abandoned it for what they believe is the next
great news story (this is where many juniors go wrong) or because they ran out of
capital.
3. Acquire property in an area of the latest great mine find.
Tashota has managed over the past five (5) years to acquire a portfolio of
excellent targets for discovery, including Hemlo, Larose and Opinaca. Focus has been
on gold.
Management has remained private during this time in order to avoid
expensive listing fees, legal and audit as required for a listing company. In effect this
has resulted in shareholders of TRI avoiding the fate of many mining juniors who
have seen their share price reduced by 80-90% in the market place and they needed
to take on debt to maintain their listings in many cases. TRI debt is less than
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$100,000 while having acquired options on over 50,000 acres of excellent targets.
Pricing has been maintained within the $0.10 range, thereby limiting any loss for our
investors in a very bad market for gold.
Management has investigated and conducted work on these properties to
increase their value for exploration purposes and possible J/V opportunities with
other larger mining companies.
Because of our positioning in the Hemlo Gold Camp, well in advance of the
gold price increase and Barrick Gold expanding their exploration efforts (with
excellent results to date), TRI is well positioned to leverage this situation. This has
resulted in institutional interest in investing in our Company. This is an important
development because the exploration budget for the company exceeds $6,000,000
based on a 3-phased drill and exploration program for the three (3) properties.
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The purchase of Virginia Mines by Osisko Gold Royalties on or about
November 2014, for $461Million for the Éléonore royalties was fortuitous for TRI, in
that it drew attention to the Opinaca, James Bay, Quebec area. During that time TRI
acquired a 50% working interest in 18,600 acres at Opinaca. TRI is presently in
discussion with the two companies that hold the balance of the Opinaca claims, in
conjunction with TRI, which total over 23,100 acres. Airborne was completed on the
entire 23,100 acres back in 2012 which resulted in defining excellent drill targets for
further exploration. The Éléonore/Goldcorp mine is situated approximately 16
kilometres to the north east of the TRI Opinaca property.
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Work performed on the Larose property (Shebandowan Gold Belt) by
Freewest Resources and others (over $1,000,000 during 2011-13) produced
excellent trenching results, including sample values as high as 8 and 10 ounces gold
near surface. TRI had previously gained access to a 50% interest in the 8,000 acre
Echo Ridge property to the west adjoining the Larose in 2012, but the main focus was
to acquire the 8,000 acre Larose property which was acquired January 2015.
Having just completed a First Nations ceremony on the Larose property this
week, which was also attended by geology students from Lakehead University, and a
geologist from the Ministry of Northern Development and Mines (MNDM), TRI will
this week conduct exploratory drilling to better determine the geological structure
under the overburden. TRI has also signed a contract to have a complete airborne
survey performed on the Echo Ridge/Larose property, subject to obtaining
additional financing. Wesdome Mines is situated just 7 kilometres to the south of
Larose and own the Moss Lake Mine which has over 3,000,000 ounces of proven and
probable gold. Wesdome recently bought out Canoe Mining to the north east of the
Moss Lake Mine in order to consolidate their land position in the Shebandowan Gold
Belt. The Shebandowan Gold camp has recently seen increased activity in this old
gold camp, due to the increase in gold prices and management of TRI is well
positioned with a large land position that has to date produced excellent exploration
results.
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This has been a very long, but what I believe to be, a very important Market Letter to our
investors in TRI because there has been a marked change in not only world events, both
political and economic; but importantly in the price of gold. This bodes well for our
company and management of TRI believes that we are very well positioned with our
mining portfolio of properties to profit from the continuing rise in the price of gold.
The Golden Cross for gold is a great technical analysis marker for major turns in
commodities, stock markets, etc., and has usually performed in a consistent manner as a
foreteller of the longer term direction for the commodity or stocks. I believe this will prove
to be true over the next several months.
Management of TRI has hired an Investor Relations executive to keep our base of
shareholders aware of the ongoing opportunities in TRI and will be in touch shortly.
Meanwhile contact the offices of Tashota Resources Inc. to get an update with regard to
your current shareholder position.
For further information, please contact: Charles J. Elbourne B. Comm., M.B.A., President, and C.E.O. C :( 416) 315-6490 Email: [email protected]
CAUTIONARY NOTE: The information contained herein is provided for informational and
educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment
advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither
Tashota Resources Inc., nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any
security. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own
due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A
SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.