Israel vs. UK and USA
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1 Israel vs. UK and USA GDP per capita (USD, Current Prices) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Israel United Kingdom United States
Transcript of Israel vs. UK and USA
1
Israel vs. UK and USA
GDP per capita (USD, Current Prices)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Israel United Kingdom United States
2
Israel vs. UK and USA
Ratio of Government Debt to GDP (%)
62.9
88.7
108.9
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Israel United Kingdom United States
3
72.8
70.1
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
% o
f G
DP
US Israel
Israel vs. USA
Ratio of non-Financial Corporate Debt to GDP (%)
36
42
89 70
62
0
50
100
150
200
250
Households Non-Financial Corps Government
80
4
Israel and the US: Opposing trends
Israel: Deleverage and Shift of Burden from Public to the Private
US: Increased leverage. Shift of Burden from Private to the Public
Source: BIS data
% D
eb
t to
GD
P b
y s
ect
or
96 79
65 7
3
58
98
Back of the Envelope CalculationsAssume: GDP growth rate ≥ Government Deficit
5
1000GDP
630Debt2
600Tax3
625Tot. Gov’t expenditures4
2.5%Gov’t Deficit4
31.5Permanent Annual
Interest Payment5
5.25%Tax Burden of Debt6
5%Interest Rate
(see past decade)7
1000
600
625
2.5%
31.5Permanent Annual
Interest Payment
5.25%Tax Burden of Debt
4.5%Interest Rate
(future decade???)
700“Affordable Debt”
Make an “infrastructure box” of 70
…and we are still below OECD average of 75%
6
36
37
38
39
40
40
40
40
40
41
42
89
93 85
86
85 82 79 74
72
70
70
80
73 72
75 71 69 69 67 66 64
62
0
50
100
150
200
250Households Non-Financial Corps Government
Israel:Deleverage and Shift of Burden from Public to the Private
Source: BIS data
% D
eb
t to
GD
P b
y s
ect
or
7
96
98
95
96 91 86
83
81
80
79
79
65
70
73
71 67 66 67
68
69
71
73
58
58
66
79 88 92
95
97
97
97
98
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Households Non-Financial Corps Government
US – opposite trends to Israel
Increased leverage. Shift of Burden from Private to the Public
Source: BIS data
% D
eb
t to
GD
P b
y s
ect
or
